Carlos Santana

37-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Free Agent

2023 Stats

AVG

.240

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Santana made the financial decision to take the contract with the Pirates and get paid to play one year removed from a fun stretch of play with Seattle that saw him provide some key moments in their improbable run to the postseason. Santana is often cited as one of the players who should most benefit from the new limitations on shifting, but even a 40-point surge in batting average (that is never happening!) would still keep him below the league averag. Santana has hovered at or under the Mendoza Line for three consecutive seasons after his last big fantasy season in 2019. Santana makes a nice first base platoon partner for Ji-Man Choi when a lefty starter is on the mound if the club wants to give him time in the field rather than DH him every day in the lineup. He should be a volume producer as he has been each of the past two seasons, but that volume comes with a severe batting average penalty. The new shifting conditions could push him back into the .220's, but wishcasting anything more than that is just greedy. We strongly encourage you to take a long look at his Stat Review section below because that section looks much better than his actual production last season. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#514

ADP

Overall

Bats B

Throws R

40 Man No

Height 5'11"

Weight 210

DOB 4/8/1986

Born Santo Domingo, DR

College None

Drafted 2004 LA

Batting third again in Game 2

1BMilwaukee Brewers

October 4, 2023

Santana (hand) is starting at first base and batting third in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series on Wednesday versus the Diamondbacks.

ANALYSIS
Santana jammed his left (glove) hand while applying a hard tag Tuesday in the Brewers' Game 1 loss to Arizona, but he wasn't forced to make an early exit and is right back in action Wednesday as Milwaukee sticks with the same exact starting nine and batting order against the visiting D-backs.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2022 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+14%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+11%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+20%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+13%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.767	493	59	13	68	4	.273	.359	.408
Since 2021vs Right	.675	1291	137	48	147	4	.200	.302	.372
2023vs Left	.807	161	25	6	27	2	.266	.354	.453
2023vs Right	.727	458	53	17	59	4	.231	.306	.421
2022vs Left	.789	142	17	3	21	0	.265	.387	.402
2022vs Right	.655	364	35	16	39	0	.178	.288	.366
2021vs Left	.718	190	17	4	20	2	.283	.342	.376
2021vs Right	.636	469	49	15	49	0	.184	.309	.327
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+6%

OPS at Home

2023

+11%

OPS at Home

2022

+2%

OPS on Road

2021

+7%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.719	894	103	27	103	4	.234	.331	.388
Since 2021Away	.681	890	93	34	112	4	.206	.304	.377
2023Home	.789	290	41	10	31	4	.260	.348	.441
2023Away	.711	329	37	13	55	2	.223	.292	.419
2022Home	.686	265	29	10	32	0	.201	.306	.380
2022Away	.699	241	23	9	28	0	.203	.328	.371
2021Home	.683	339	33	7	40	0	.237	.336	.347
2021Away	.636	320	33	12	29	2	.190	.300	.336
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Stat Review

How does Carlos Santana compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.63

BB Rate

10.5%

K Rate

16.8%

BABIP

.255

ISO

.189

AVG

.240

OBP

.318

SLG

.429

OPS

.747

wOBA

.329

Exit Velocity

88.8 mph

Hard Hit Rate

32.1%

Barrels/PA

4.8%

Expected BA

.240

Expected SLG

.378

Sprint Speed

20.8 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

43.8%

Line Drive %

18.2%

Fly Ball %

38.0%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Carlos Santana See More

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54 days ago

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60 days ago

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60 days ago

Dan Marcus has your playoff picks for Tuesday’s Wild Card slate.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

Santana's 2021 season provided a painful reminder that Father Time is undefeated and eventually wins the battle players try to avoid losing as long as possible. It was just two seasons ago that Santana tied his career high in homers while breaking his career bests in runs, RBI, batting average and OBP. Since that career year at 33, his numbers have declined more rapidly than your favorite roller coaster, and he only got the playing time he did last season because Kansas City had nothing better to roll out there. Santana still makes good contact and will accept his walks, but he gets eaten alive by the shift as one of the slowest players in the league. He still has first-base eligibility, but in name only as he is a terrible defender, and now 36, Santana has little left to offer a club other than veteran leadership. This feels like the Dale Murphy path to retirement all over again. He is only an option in single-league formats.

Coming off a 2019 campaign inflated by the Happy Fun Ball, Santana was due some regression, but not the worst season of his career. If 2019 and 2020 are combined, the slash is almost the same as 2016 and 2017, Santana's prior two years with Cleveland before spending a season with the Phillies and ultimately returning to the Tribe. Last season's Statcast metrics resembled those from 2017 and 2018, suggesting 2019 was the outlier and he was unlucky last season. That being said, Santana's K% was its highest since 2015 and his average exit velocity was its lowest since Statcast began tracking that same year. Santana has missed just five games since 2018 and projects for everyday playing time after signing a two-year deal with the Royals. However, there are signs of declining skills, and as a result the discount on Santana will be even greater in 2021.

Santana was a huge profit earner in 2019; he was taken just inside the top 200 on average in the NFBC last March and was the 32nd ranked hitter when it was all said and done. The big surprise was his .281 BA, 13 points above his previous career high and more than 50 points above his 2018 mark. His 91.8 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 95th percentile (min. 100 PA) and it seemed like Santana was making a conscious effort to use the whole field more, as his Pull% was 45.6 after sitting in the 50s for most of his career. Even so, Statcast says he deserved a BA closer to .265. His power numbers could dip too if MLB deadens the ball again, but Santana has some of the best and most consistent plate skills in the game (16.5 K%, 15.4 BB% for career). Further, he has missed a total of five games over the past two years, so this is extremely bankable production, likely at a cost-effective price once again.

Santana's numbers were a disappointment for the Phillies, who signed him for three years and $60 million last winter. There are reasons to be encouraged by his season, however. His walk rate spiked to 16.2% while his strikeout rate fell to a career-low 13.7%, leaving him with a 1.18 BB/K, second in the league to Jose Ramirez. He ran into a lot of bad batted-ball luck, finishing with a .231 BABIP, which fell far below his career .265 mark. It's not outrageous to think he can get back close to the .259 batting average he posted for two straight years before coming to Philadelphia as long as he holds onto his plate discipline improvements. Age concerns can't be ignored, as Santana turns 33 in early April, but the trade back to the American League and into a likely DH role with the Indians should help keep him fresh.

For the sixth time in the last seven seasons, including the last five in a row, the durable Santana played in at least 152 games. As usual, Santana's calling card was patience, as he walked 13.2 percent of the time, which was surprisingly a career-low mark. However, he made up for it with an uptick in contact rate. Coming off a season where Santana slugged 34 homers, 23 is a bit disappointing, but that mark was in line with totals previous to his outlying 2016 campaign. Santana swatted 37 doubles, his second-highest total ever, so he was just a few timely breezes away from a few extra homers. Santana's skill set allows him to lead off, or bat in the heart of the order, but he'll likely serve in the latter capacity after signing a three-year deal with the Phillies in December. He's better in OBP and points leagues scoring walks, and while Santana's upside is limited, his floor and durability allow you to take some chances elsewhere on your roster.

Santana set career highs in homers, runs, and RBI while tipping his batting average over the league average for the first time in three seasons. His days of playing up the defensive spectrum are done, but he returned to hitting with the power fantasy owners like to see from first basemen. His RBI production dipped as he spent most of his time hitting leadoff, thanks to his abilities to work counts and accept walks (.365 career OBP). Those skills are always going to ensure he hits in the top half of the lineup, and he has been durable, racking up six consecutive seasons of 600 or more plate appearances. While a switch hitter, the power comes from the left side, as 30 of his 34 homers last year were as a lefty and 77 percent of his career homers are as a lefty. As long as prospective owners realize his potential pitfalls -- mainly a batting average that could be on the wrong side of .250 -- he'll deliver, even more so in OBP leagues.

Santana is never going to bat for a high average, having hit above .260 in just one of his five full seasons in the big leagues, but the plate skills remain steady. He matched his career-high with 85 RBI and managed to score 72 runs by drawing 108 walks. Unfortunately, the power dipped in 2015, well below the league average among qualifiers. In fact, his career-worst .395 slugging percentage was bested by the likes of Kevin Pillar, Francisco Cervelli and Marcus Semien, to name a few. The Indians were hopeful that the transition from behind the plate and the hot corner would help resurrect his bat but that hasn't been the case, and what's left is a declining player who is now just first-base eligible. Regardless, Santana still has two years left on a club-friendly five-year, $21 million deal, and appears likely to open 2016 as the everyday first baseman.

Santana was looking like one of the bigger fantasy busts after the first two months of the season, as he hit just .159/.327/.301 and suffered a concussion late in May that sent him to the 7-day DL. The Indians did away with his limited role behind the plate following the scare and also put an end to his audition at third base, having him instead focus primarily on improving at the dish, and indeed he did improve, hitting .310 (54-for-174) with 14 homers in June and July. Although the power numbers and batting average slipped in August and September (.225 average, seven homers), Santana matched his career-high with 27 homers in 2014 and set a new career high with 85 RBI, while leading the major leagues with 113 walks and maintaining a strikeout rate (18.8%) right around his career norm (18.0%). His BABIP was down at .249, suggesting the average will rebound in 2014, and he made enough appearances at third base (26) to earn eligibility in most leagues. He'll lose catcher eligibility in many formats, however, after making just 11 appearances at the position.

Santana's gradual move from behind the plate was accelerated with the development of Yan Gomes, but he still figures to see enough action behind the plate to qualify in most formats for at least a few more years. The power he flashed back in 2011 may have been his peak, but he's still driving in and scoring runs at a nice clip for a catcher thanks to his hold on a place in the heart of the Cleveland lineup. Santana was reportedly unhappy about yielding a significant share of time behind the plate, but the move should help him avoid the bumps and bruises that tend to mount with heavy use at the position, while also boosting his offensive numbers. Look for his playing time to come in the form of a rotation between catcher, first base and DH again in 2014.

Santana had a fine season, but it wasn't quite the encore performance many were expecting after his 2011 season. He was dreadful in the first half (.675 OPS, five homers) before rebounding in the second half (.887 OPS, 13 homers) to help salvage his season. The Indians may try to get him out from behind the plate more often, but he'll still spend most of his time as the team's starting catcher. He'll continue to offer plus-power from the behind the dish, and Santana is certainly capable of delivering two halves in line with the post-break numbers of a year ago.

Santana had his share of struggles in his first full year in the bigs, hitting just .239. The power and patience remained, as evidenced by his 35 doubles, 27 homers and 97 walks in 658 plate appearances. The Indians did a nice job of splitting his duties between catcher and first base and that trend should continue again this season. He still does a fine enough job behind the plate to avoid moving over to first base on a permanent basis, and the power and patience point to a breakout season despite last year's disappointing batting average.

Santana bludgeoned his way to a promotion in June (1.045 OPS at Triple-A) and then saw his rookie season come to an abrupt end with a season-ending knee injury in early August. He hit .260 with six homers and drew a remarkable 37 walks over 150 at-bats for the Indians. He'll give you plus-power for a catcher and an excellent OBP as the Indians' primary backstop and all signs point to him being completely healed by spring training. There's a good chance his injury will lead you to a discount on draft day, so be ready to invest for Year 2.

Santana had a monster season at Double-A Akron, hitting .290/.413/.530 with 30 doubles and 23 homers and earning the Eastern League MVP award. The switch hitter has power to all fields, an excellent batting eye and a solid contact rate for a player with his power (283 K in 1925 plate appearances in his minor league career). He's shown enough behind the plate to avoid any talk of shifting him over to first base, but his bat is good enough to play there as well. Lou Marson, Wyatt Toregas and Chris Gimenez will keep the position warm to start the season, but Santana will be the team's primary catcher at some point this season.

Santana exploded onto the prospect radar with a .326/.431/.568 season between High-A stops for Los Angeles and Cleveland after coming over to the Indians in the Casey Blake trade. He's got plus-power (21 homers and 39 doubles), an excellent batting eye (89 walks in 463 at-bats) and an adequate defensive reputation. We'll see how he fares at Double-A this season but so far the results are good. He should be on everyone's prospect radar by now.

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