FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown
FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

The rain has disappeared for the weekend and it starts with a packed Friday night slate. It's not the best in terms of pitching and that may lead to a couple chalky options. Of course, there's always someone to gamble on.

PITCHING

Even as the most expensive pitcher, it'll be hard to fade Chris Sale ($12,000). The southpaw has hit 10 strikeouts in his last four starts and eight of his last nine. While the Blue Jays have hit lefties better, I'm not sure how much that'll matter. Sale already racked up 10 Ks against the Astros, who have a 12.7 K% in the last month against lefties.

Aaron Nola ($8,700) is the next biggest favorite and he also gets a desirable matchup against the Marlins, who have a 22.0 K% and .146 ISO against righties in the last month. He may be cheaper, but I'm not sure he's worth it compared to the upside of Sale. Not to mention, Nola has allowed 14 runs in his last three starts to go with only 16 strikeouts. Trevor Bauer ($11,500) will probably be a more popular pivot after carving the Tigers for eight strikeouts and four hits in a complete game last start. It's usually a good bet to go against the Tigers, who own the worst K% against righty arms in the last month (26.6) to go with a subpar .297 wOBA.

Otherwise, it's kind of a grab bag from the available pitchers. Griffin Canning ($8,000) is allowing runs, but he also has a decent 26.3 K% and the Cardinals have struggled all month against righty hurlers with a 26.1 K% and .271 wOBA. Walker Buehler ($11,200) has the numbers, though I'm still iffy about going against the Rockies, even on the road. Buehler could be a decent GPP route since he won't be popular at that price.

Martin Perez ($7,800) is worth a look mostly because the Royals have a 28.1 K% against lefty arms in the last month. He had four earned runs against KC last start, yet still managed 29 fantasy points and if he can go at least six innings again, that'll be worth a play. In the same mold, if you want to bank on someone who will allow a couple homers, but still reach 30-40 points, that's Mike Leake ($8,500). He's gone at least seven innings in his last four starts and the Orioles shouldn't slow him down with a 25.2 K% and .272 wOBA against righties in June. At the bottom of the barrel, Eric Lauer ($7,000) should bounce back to relevancy after getting roasted in Coors Field last outing. The Pirates have a poor .288 OBP and .302 wOBA against lefty arms over the last month.

KEY VALUES/CHALK

Due to a lack of aces, there may not be complete chalk on the slate in terms of bats, but a lot of people will look to the White Sox-Cubs game with an over/under at 11.5 runs. I'd rather stack against Reynaldo Lopez, who isn't good against either side of the plate, highlighted by an ugly .396 OBP allowed to lefty bats. I'm focused on righties against Ariel Jurado, who has allowed a .385 wOBA and .358 OBP. Jose Abreu ($3,900) brings the power, but I feel better about saving money on James McCann ($3,000), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,200) and Jose Rondon ($2,100).

I'm intrigued by the San Francisco-Arizona matchup because you can't count on either pitcher. Jeff Samardzija has allowed 16 hits in his last two starts, while Taylor Clarke has allowed an OBP of .366 against lefty bats. Ketel Marte ($4,000) remains the power option, while Nick Ahmed ($2,700) and Carson Kelly ($2,500) can save a few bucks. Brandon Belt ($2,800) is a great value play with a team-leading .346 OBP in his last 78 plate appearances against righties. The Giants don't have many more desirable bats, but lefties like Mike Yastrzemski ($2,700) and Joe Panik ($2,500) are  cheap.

If you're feeling lucky and want to bank on a homer, the Orioles are the place to go. Leake may go deep into games, but he's already allowed 22 homers seen in a 2.49 HR/9 against righty bats. Trey Mancini ($3,600) may miss out due to an elbow injury, but Dwight Smith Jr. ($3,000) and Renato Nunez ($2,500) are still in play. I'd also focus on lefty hitters against Joe Musgrove and Brad Peacock. Both have struggled against lefties with wOBAs allowed above .350 and the Padres and Yankees can capitalize. That points to Didi Gregorius ($3,000), Brett Gardner ($3,000) and Eric Hosmer ($3,000), all of whom provide solid value.

STACKS

Rangers vs. Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox)

(OF Shin-Soo Choo - $3,700), (OF Danny Santana - $2,900), (3B Asdrubal Cabrera - $2,900)

Lopez has a .386 and .367 wOBA allowed to lefties and righties, receptively, and that's hard to pass up. The Rangers have slightly fallen off in the last month without Joey Gallo, but they still have a decent core to build around led by Choo and his .393 OBP in his last 89 PA against righties. Santana and Cabrera are next on the list in terms of ISO, but you could go slightly cheaper with Rougned Odor ($2,800) and Ronald Guzman ($2,700).

Twins vs. Jakob Junis (Royals)

(OF Max Kepler - $4,200), (SS Jorge Polanco - $4,000), (OF Eddie Rosario - $3,900)

The Twins are in a perfect spot against Jakob Junis, who has allowed a .370 wOBA to lefties to go with a 1.67 HR/9. This is a stack built on lefties and if you need to save money, Luis Arraez ($2,600) is in play if he gets another start. Otherwise, Kepler is a must with a .424 OBP and .400 ISO in his last 85 PA against righty arms. If you want to go cheaper, Jake Cave ($2,200) is a lefty waiting to break out in a good spot.

Angels vs. Michael Wacha (Cardinals)

(OF Mike Trout - $4,900), (OF Justin Upton - $3,900), (SS David Fletcher - $2,700)

Wacha is having major troubles against righties with a .405 OBP and 3.00 HR/9 allowed and his 6.00 ERA isn't much better. Trout is hard to avoid in this stack with a .437 OBP and .567 ISO in his last 87 PA against righty arms, while Upton returned from injury this week. Fletcher allows you to spend on those guys and still has a worthwhile .359 OBP in the last month against righties. The lefty route is also an option with Tommy La Stella ($3,200) and Kole Calhoun ($3,200) somewhat discounted.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Adam Zdroik plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: zdroik, DraftKings: rotozdroik, Yahoo: StreakMaster.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate. 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year.
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