Jose Abreu

36-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Houston Astros

2023 Stats

AVG

.237

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

At the end of last season, Abreu's fantasy managers were left wondering one thing: Where did the power go? Abreu managed a mere four home runs after the All-Star break, slugging .414 in 67 games after the intermission. He hit only one homer in his final 55 games. It wasn't just the power -- Abreu's strikeout and walk rates both went in the wrong direction in the second half. So, was he simply pressing or is this the beginning of the cliff for Abreu? He will be 36 at the start of the 2023 season. He still had outstanding season-long marks in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, per Statcast, despite the late power outage. Father Time is undefeated, but Abreu seems like a strong bounce-back candidate given his glimmering track record of both performance and durability. He finds himself in a perfect situation to put up significant runs and RBI as Houston's new starting first baseman after inking a three-year deal this offseason. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#89

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 250

DOB 1/29/1987

Born Cienfuegos, Cuba

College None

Drafted 2013 CWS

Goes yard, grabs bag in win

1BHouston Astros

October 19, 2023

Abreu went 1-for-3 with a three run home run and a stolen base, adding two runs and three RBI in Thursday's 10-3 victory over the Rangers in Game 3 of the ALCS.

ANALYSIS
Abreu has continued to develop upon his recent late-season power-hitting success right into the playoffs. He had a .505 slugging percentage over 93 at-bats in September, but he is now up to a .677 mark in 31 ABs since the postseason began. One area Abreu did not cover during the regular season was stolen bases, and Thursday was the first time Abreu has stolen a base all year and the first time in his postseason career. In the current playoff run, Abreu is slashing .258/.343/.677 with eight runs and 11 RBI, adding four home runs and Thursday's stolen base in 31 at-bats.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+12%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+13%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+5%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+23%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.849	469	68	23	72	0	.271	.345	.504
Since 2021vs Right	.759	1463	165	40	210	1	.268	.343	.416
2023vs Left	.741	179	17	8	25	0	.235	.296	.444
2023vs Right	.654	415	45	10	65	0	.238	.296	.357
2022vs Left	.857	137	23	4	17	0	.294	.387	.471
2022vs Right	.816	542	62	11	58	0	.307	.376	.440
2021vs Left	.969	153	28	11	30	0	.294	.366	.603
2021vs Right	.788	506	58	19	87	1	.251	.346	.442
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+4%

OPS on Road

2023

+10%

OPS on Road

2022

+19%

OPS on Road

2021

+16%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.767	939	112	31	126	0	.254	.343	.424
Since 2021Away	.794	993	121	32	156	1	.282	.344	.450
2023Home	.645	276	28	6	35	0	.227	.301	.344
2023Away	.709	318	34	12	55	0	.246	.292	.416
2022Home	.751	337	39	7	28	0	.274	.353	.398
2022Away	.897	342	46	8	47	0	.334	.404	.493
2021Home	.894	326	45	18	63	0	.257	.368	.526
2021Away	.772	333	41	12	54	1	.265	.333	.439
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Stat Review

How does Jose Abreu compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.32

BB Rate

7.1%

K Rate

21.9%

BABIP

.276

ISO

.146

AVG

.237

OBP

.296

SLG

.383

OPS

.680

wOBA

.300

Exit Velocity

89.0 mph

Hard Hit Rate

29.2%

Barrels/PA

6.1%

Expected BA

.248

Expected SLG

.409

Sprint Speed

21.7 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

45.0%

Line Drive %

18.8%

Fly Ball %

36.3%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2012

After an MVP season in 2020, Abreu went back to being his normal, still-incredible self in 2021. He hit his 30 homers and contended for the league lead in RBI, finishing second behind Salvador Perez. His batting average was a career-low .261 due in large part to a career-low .293 BABIP. There is no major red flag here, but there are several small issues: a six-year high in his GB%; the second-highest Pull% of his career (i.e. hits into the shift more); his sprint speed and home-to-first times were his slowest in five years. It's tough to project any improvement as he enters his age-35 season. The hope will be that he simply maintains and doesn't fall off a cliff. All of his power metrics stayed constant. His walk and strikeout rates were career bests. It should just be more of the same from this middle-of-the-order power bat, though his batting average may end up closer to .250 than .300.

Abreu has been a very consistent run producer in his time with the South Siders. Outside of his injury-impacted 2018 season, he has always hit for a high average and driven in plenty of runs, and 2020 was no different. Abreu earned American League MVP honors after leading a resurgent White Sox lineup, driving in a run per game with either career-best numbers or pacing toward career best levels nearly across the board. His Statcast measures show elite level rankings in exit velocity, barrels, hard-hit rate and all of the expected stats. There is value in the consistency which Abreu brings to the table, but now that consistency is coming on the heels of a huge year. He will once again anchor a talented Chicago lineup, hit his homers and drive in plenty of runs, but there will zero discount on Abreu in 2021, so plan accordingly. He should be viewed as an offensive foundation to build your team around.

Abreu has been an underrated model of consistency through his first six seasons in the majors, playing at least 145 games and batting at least .280 with 25-plus home runs and 100-plus RBI in all but one of those years. Thanks in part to good health and breakouts from Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, Abreu established a new career high with 123 RBI, making him the surprise AL leader in the category. Though the 33-year-old Abreu has now reached the point where power-oriented first base/DH types often begin to tail off, his 2019 batting profile doesn't sound any major alarms. His walk (5.2%) and strikeout (21.9%) rates were roughly in line with his career marks, and his hard-hit (40.7%) and barrel (12.8%) rates were actually personal highs. After reupping with the Pale Hose on a three-year deal this offseason, Abreu should be a good bet to once again finish as a top-10 fantasy first baseman.

In mid-August, Abreu appeared primed to make history as just the third player ever to hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs in five consecutive seasons to begin his big-league career (joining Albert Pujols and Joe DiMaggio). Unfortunately, a lower-abdominal/groin issue required surgery and he only made it back for six games in September before a thigh infection put him right back on the shelf. While he didn't quite reach those lofty thresholds, Abreu still had a solid season by any standard. It wasn't quite what we'd seen from Abreu in the past -- his 114 wRC+ was a career low and he lost close to 40 points of batting average -- but the production was still plenty valuable. The strikeout rate ticked up a little and it's probably unwise to expect Abreu to get back to .300, but he should still be an easy plus in that category and three others. First base as a whole fell off in 2018 and Abreu is a clear top-10 option at the position.

When the White Sox signed Abreu as an international free agent before the 2014 season, their expectation was that they had found a steady middle-of-the-order run producer to anchor their lineup for years to come. Through four seasons, he's lived up to the hype, but his 2017 campaign was his best since his debut, as he eclipsed the .900 OPS mark for the second time in his career. Across the board, he nearly matched his career slash line (.301/.359/.524), with a slight increase in his slugging percentage (.552) thanks to 33 homers and a career-high 43 doubles. In addition to driving in 100 runs for the fourth time in his career, Abreu scored a career-best 95 runs on a team that ranked in the bottom-third of the category. As the rebuilding effort continues on the south side of Chicago, Abreu will remain a cornerstone in the lineup. Another .300, 30-homer, 100-RBI season should be within reach, but he's more likely to score 80 runs than 100.

After three seasons, Abreu's name feels as if it has more value than his actual numbers. His 2014 season was outstanding, and 2015 was pretty good as well, but 2016 feels like a disappointment. Sure, he drove in 100 runs, taking advantage of the opportunities provided to him and hit .293. Yet, in a year where many were hitting 20-plus homers, Abreu hit 25 despite missing only three games all year. His Isolated Power and HR/FB ratio has declined each season he has been in the majors. His GB/FB rate has always been high, but he got away with it when he was hitting one out of every four or five flyballs out of the yard. Last season, that fell to one in every six flyballs which caps his power upside. All the pieces are there, but he has to get more distance on his batted balls to get back to the 30-homer plateau.

With a 30-home run, 101-RBI campaign in 2015, Abreu joined Albert Pujols as the only players to hit at least 30 home runs and accumulate 100 RBI in each of their first two seasons. Of course, Abreu was 27 when he made his major league debut and Pujols was 21, but the feat emphasizes the fact that Abreu landed stateside as an elite hitter in his prime. Abreu was consistent all season long, generally hitting five home runs per month and batting somewhere between .274 and .304. He struggled against lefties in 2015 (.658 OPS), but that split was 1.098 in 2014. So while perhaps a vulnerability was indeed exposed, we can still expect a slight rebound in 2016. Heading into 2016, he profiles as the team’s starting first baseman and No. 3 hitter, and as 2015 proved, he can still put up stats without a stellar supporting cast.

Things could not have gone much better for Abreu in his first MLB season. The Cuban expat entered the year with some questions about whether his swing would hold up to advanced pitching, but Abreu displayed an advanced work ethic that made the transition nearly seamless. He raced to 29 home runs before making the AL All-Star squad, and finished his Rookie of the Year campaign leading the majors with a .581 slugging percentage. He proved himself to be more than just a slugger in the second half, hitting .350 after the break. He swings more than you would like and misses more than he should, so it would not be a surprise to see his average suffer a bit in 2015 if he can not sustain his .356 BABIP. However, his power should continue to rank him in the upper echelon of AL first basemen in 2015, and he should have a spot in the heart of the White Sox's order for several years to come.

Abreu enters 2014 as one of the bigger mysteries of the season. The newest Cuban superstar to make the trek to MLB is a bit different than the other recent players to defect. He is less athletic than Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes, and he is also quite a bit older than Puig and a year older than Cespedes was upon his arrival two seasons ago. However, Abreu does come to the states with more alleged raw power. He hit 37 home runs in back-to-back Cuban seasons, and he hit .342/.457/.621 over 799 career games in that league. The scouting reports vary in terms of how those numbers will translate to the big leagues, and some question how he will fare against major league breaking balls. He excelled in the 2013 World Baseball Classic with three home runs and a 1.145 OPS in 25 at-bats. The variance on his projections will likely be great, but he should be projected to start at first and bat somewhere in the middle-third of the White Sox's lineup.

Abreu set the single-season mark for home runs at 33 in 2010-11 in the Serie Nationale - the top professional league in Cuba - and was named the league's MVP

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