Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Nola shocked many when he decided to re-up with the Phillies for seven years rather than test the free agent waters in what was a lucrative market with multiple big market teams looking for pitching. Then again, Nola has pitched very well at Citizens Bank Ballpark over the years whereas his struggles have more recently been away from Philly. You may be surprised to learn that Nola pitched to a 3.29 ERA with 12 homers in 87.2 innings at home in 2023, but had a 5.43 ERA with 20 homers in 106 innings on the road last season. He is a rare bird in that he has not missed a single start since missing a handful of starts in the 2017 season and has pitched at least 180 innings in each of the past five full seasons. He has become rather stingy with walks in recent years while continuing to get 200+ strikeouts year after year. 2021 and 2023 have a familiar look to them and Nola absolutely has the ability to bounce back in 2024 as he did in 2022 while deciding to continue his career where it began. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#58
ADP
$Signed a seven-year, $172 million contract with the Phillies in November of 2023. Contract includes $50,000 incentive for each All-Star Game appearance and Gold Glove Award, a $1 million trade assignment bonus for 2024 and 2025 and an $100,000 incentive for a Cy Young Award and $50,000 and $25,000 for second- and third-place finishes, respectively.
Shuts down Dodgers
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 11, 2024
Nola (11-4) picked up the win Thursday, allowing one run on four hits and two walks across six innings against the Dodgers. He struck out nine.
ANALYSIS
Nola had no issues with the top end of the Dodgers' lineup, holding Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith and Freddie Freeman hitless with five strikeouts. The lone run against Nola came off the bat of Gavin Lux, who went yard to lead off the fifth inning. Nola has generated at least eight strikeouts in three consecutive appearances and has posted a quality start in 10 of his last 11 outings. The 31-year-old owns the second most wins in baseball to go along with a 3.38 ERA across 119.2 innings. However, his 8.7 K/9 would be his worst tally since his rookie year in 2015.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
96
Last 10 Games
97
Last 5 Games
98
How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-11%
BAA vs LHP
2023
Even Split
2022
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .215 995 251 57 200 42 3 35
Since 2022vs Right .237 1079 302 44 242 53 1 33
2024vs Left .203 241 52 14 46 11 0 11
2024vs Right .228 233 64 13 50 10 0 6
2023vs Left .240 364 90 25 81 17 2 16
2023vs Right .241 429 112 20 97 18 1 16
2022vs Left .200 390 109 18 73 14 1 8
2022vs Right .237 417 126 11 95 25 0 11
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-39%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 3.42 0.97 253.0 17 10 0 9.9 1.7 1.2
Since 2022Away 4.04 1.12 265.1 17 16 0 9.3 1.8 1.1
2024Home 3.42 1.00 68.1 5 3 0 9.2 2.0 1.4
2024Away 3.33 1.07 51.1 6 1 0 8.1 2.1 1.1
2023Home 3.29 0.97 87.2 6 3 0 10.0 1.7 1.2
2023Away 5.43 1.30 106.0 6 6 0 8.9 2.4 1.7
2022Home 3.53 0.96 97.0 6 4 0 10.3 1.6 1.1
2022Away 3.00 0.96 108.0 5 9 0 10.3 1.0 0.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.30
 
K/9
8.7
 
BB/9
2.0
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
91.9 mph
 
ERA
3.38
 
WHIP
1.03
 
BABIP
.263
 
GB/FB
1.44
 
Left On Base
75.6%
 
Exit Velocity
81.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.5%
 
Spin Rate
2300 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
21.4%
 
Swinging Strike
11.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he finished last year with 230 innings (playoffs included), which is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October.
How much do you trust ERA estimators? The answer probably determines how much you like Nola heading into 2022. His 4.63 ERA, easily his worst since 2016, suggests he wasn't very good last year. Advanced metrics universally liked him far more than that, with FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all placing him between 3.26 and 3.39, and it's not hard to see why. He combined a career-best 5.2 BB% with a 29.8 K%, with his K-BB% ranking fifth among qualified starters. The main downside was his career-low 40.5% groundball rate, which led to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. That's far from a terrible groundball rate, however, so if he maintains a similar strikeout and walk rate while posting groundball numbers closer to his career 48.7% mark he could be in line for one of his best seasons. He's also remarkably durable, with a single brief absence due to contact tracing representing his only trip to the injured list since 2017.
Nola was a rare bright spot on the Phillies' pitching staff last season, posting a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts, the second-best mark of his six-year career. That helped him to a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young race, his second top-10 showing in the last three seasons. There's a case he deserved even better, as Baseball Prospectus' DRA pegged him as the top starter in the NL, while his 2.79 xFIP ranked second. His big improvement last season came in his strikeout rate, which had settled in between 25% and 27% in that category over the previous four seasons but jumped all the way up to 33.2% last year, good for sixth among qualified starters, just ahead of Gerrit Cole. That jump was backed up by an increase in his whiff rate from 26.6% to 31.3%. If those gains hold in 2021, he could move into the back of the top tier of fantasy arms, jumping up from the solid second-tier option he's been in recent seasons.
Nola was poor at both ends of the 2019 season, posting a 6.84 ERA over his first five starts and a 6.51 mark over his final five. In between those two stretches, he was in vintage form, recording a 2.89 ERA and a 27.1 K%. The entire season's stats count, of course, so those who drafted Nola likely weren't happy with his 3.87 ERA overall. The 26-year-old doesn't appear to have been a victim of too much bad luck, as that figure was right around his 4.03 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. His walk rate took a big step back, jumping from 7.0% to 9.4%, a worrying development given that command and control have been Nola's calling card for the entirety of his career. There's still plenty of upside here, as the good version of Nola is just a small step outside baseball's top tier of starting pitchers, but last year's version was a merely good pitcher. The Phillies will hope a new regime brings out the best in their ace.
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher.
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Delivers quality start
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 5, 2024
Nola (10-4) yielded three runs on five hits over six innings Friday, striking out eight and earning a win over Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in quality start
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 29, 2024
Nola (9-4) took the loss Saturday, giving up three runs on six hits over 6.2 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins. He struck out nine without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp in win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 24, 2024
Nola (9-3) picked up the win Monday against Detroit, allowing one earned run on six hits and zero walks while striking out six over seven innings.
ANALYSIS
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Rebounds vs. San Diego
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 18, 2024
Nola didn't factor into the decision Tuesday against the Padres, allowing three runs on four hits and a walk over six innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Crushed in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 13, 2024
Nola (8-3) took the loss to the Red Sox on Thursday, allowing eight runs on 11 hits and two walks with two strikeouts over 3.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Turns down more money
PPhiladelphia Phillies
November 19, 2023
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Nola turned down more money elsewhere to re-sign with the Phillies on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander agreed to a seven-year, $172 million pact with Philadelphia but apparently had more lucrative deals on the table. The contract includes full no-trade protection and no opt outs, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, so Nola will remain with the Phillies for the duration of the deal unless he approves a trade.
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