Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Last year's outlook hinted at the possibilities of a strong bounceback season for Nola, and that is indeed what came to be. Years ago, this was the type of pitcher you could get on the cheap coming off the type of season he had in 2021, but fantasy baseball managers are a smarter bunch these days and Nola had very little discount last winter and is likely to bounce right back to his previous draft status this winter. He has now posted a K-BB% greater than 20% for three consecutive seasons and four of the past five seasons and the new conditions of baseball manufacturing were a blessing to him as it pulled his HR/9 rate below 1.0 for the first time since the 2018 season. He has tweaked his pitch mix by throwing more hard stuff and dialing back on his changeup a bit as the league hit .319 off that offering this season. The only concern with Nola heading into 2023 is the fact he could have 240 innings of work by the time the postseason is over and that is unchartered waters for him as he has never pitched deep into October. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a four-year, $45 million contract extension with the Phillies in February of 2019. Phillies exercised $16 million team option for 2023 in November of 2022.
Option for '23 picked up
PPhiladelphia Phillies
November 7, 2022
The Phillies exercised Nola's $16 million team option for 2023 on Monday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
Nola has held up to his end of the bargain and then some since signing a four-year, $45 million extension with the Phillies in March 2019, with the 16.1 WAR he's accumulated over that four-season stretch placing him sixth among all MLB pitchers. The 29-year-old right-hander will once again be back with the Phillies at a team-friendly rate in 2023 before he hits free agency for the first time next winter. The Phillies could look to negotiate with Nola on a long-term deal in the months to come to ensure he doesn't make it to the open market next offseason.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
93
Last 10 Games
85
Last 5 Games
84
How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2020
Even Split
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .209 888 262 50 172 40 5 24
Since 2020vs Right .238 945 288 39 212 40 1 30
2022vs Left .200 390 109 18 73 14 1 8
2022vs Right .237 417 126 11 95 25 0 11
2021vs Left .221 372 121 17 77 15 4 14
2021vs Right .254 377 102 22 88 14 1 12
2020vs Left .202 126 32 15 22 11 0 2
2020vs Right .201 151 60 6 29 1 0 7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-35%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.46 0.95 218.1 14 8 0 11.4 1.7 1.1
Since 2020Away 4.06 1.11 235.0 11 18 0 10.4 1.8 1.0
2022Home 3.53 0.96 97.0 6 4 0 10.3 1.6 1.1
2022Away 3.00 0.96 108.0 5 9 0 10.3 1.0 0.6
2021Home 3.86 1.00 81.2 5 3 0 12.3 1.3 1.2
2021Away 5.27 1.23 99.0 4 6 0 10.1 2.5 1.4
2020Home 2.50 0.81 39.2 3 1 0 12.0 2.7 0.9
2020Away 3.86 1.29 28.0 2 3 0 11.9 2.6 1.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
8.10
 
K/9
10.3
 
BB/9
1.3
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
92.6 mph
 
ERA
3.25
 
WHIP
0.96
 
BABIP
.303
 
GB/FB
1.35
 
Left On Base
71.6%
 
Exit Velocity
80.7 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.0%
 
Spin Rate
2219 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.8%
 
Swinging Strike
13.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola
World Series Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets and Player Props for Phillies vs Astros Game 5
34 days ago
Michael Rathburn breaks down the World Series Game 5 odds and dials in his best bets for Thursday's Astros-Phillies clash in Philadelphia.
FanDuel MLB: Wednesday World Series Targets
35 days ago
Chris Morgan is betting on Bryce Harper to lead his Yahoo lineups for Game 4 of the World Series on Wednesday.
MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets and Player Props for World Series Game 4
35 days ago
Michael Rathburn lines up his best bets and player props for a pivotal World Series Game 4 matchup between the Phillies and Astros.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: World Series Game 4 Picks
35 days ago
Mike Barner tees up Game 4 of the World Series on Wednesday, looking to the Phillies' Nick Castellanos for DFS value.
DraftKings MLB: Wednesday Breakdown
35 days ago
Game 4 goes Wednesday night in Philly, and Dan Marcus has your DraftKings player recommendations.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
How much do you trust ERA estimators? The answer probably determines how much you like Nola heading into 2022. His 4.63 ERA, easily his worst since 2016, suggests he wasn't very good last year. Advanced metrics universally liked him far more than that, with FIP, xFIP, xERA and SIERA all placing him between 3.26 and 3.39, and it's not hard to see why. He combined a career-best 5.2 BB% with a 29.8 K%, with his K-BB% ranking fifth among qualified starters. The main downside was his career-low 40.5% groundball rate, which led to a career-high 1.3 HR/9. That's far from a terrible groundball rate, however, so if he maintains a similar strikeout and walk rate while posting groundball numbers closer to his career 48.7% mark he could be in line for one of his best seasons. He's also remarkably durable, with a single brief absence due to contact tracing representing his only trip to the injured list since 2017.
Nola was a rare bright spot on the Phillies' pitching staff last season, posting a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts, the second-best mark of his six-year career. That helped him to a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young race, his second top-10 showing in the last three seasons. There's a case he deserved even better, as Baseball Prospectus' DRA pegged him as the top starter in the NL, while his 2.79 xFIP ranked second. His big improvement last season came in his strikeout rate, which had settled in between 25% and 27% in that category over the previous four seasons but jumped all the way up to 33.2% last year, good for sixth among qualified starters, just ahead of Gerrit Cole. That jump was backed up by an increase in his whiff rate from 26.6% to 31.3%. If those gains hold in 2021, he could move into the back of the top tier of fantasy arms, jumping up from the solid second-tier option he's been in recent seasons.
Nola was poor at both ends of the 2019 season, posting a 6.84 ERA over his first five starts and a 6.51 mark over his final five. In between those two stretches, he was in vintage form, recording a 2.89 ERA and a 27.1 K%. The entire season's stats count, of course, so those who drafted Nola likely weren't happy with his 3.87 ERA overall. The 26-year-old doesn't appear to have been a victim of too much bad luck, as that figure was right around his 4.03 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. His walk rate took a big step back, jumping from 7.0% to 9.4%, a worrying development given that command and control have been Nola's calling card for the entirety of his career. There's still plenty of upside here, as the good version of Nola is just a small step outside baseball's top tier of starting pitchers, but last year's version was a merely good pitcher. The Phillies will hope a new regime brings out the best in their ace.
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher.
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Takes loss in Game 4
PPhiladelphia Phillies
November 2, 2022
Nola pitched four innings and took the loss during Wednesday's 5-0 loss to the Astros in Game 4 of the World Series, allowing three runs on seven hits and zero walks while striking out four.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged for five runs in Game 1
PPhiladelphia Phillies
October 28, 2022
Nola pitched 4.1 innings and did not factor into the decision during Friday night's Game 1 of the World Series, allowing five runs on six hits and two walks while striking out five in the 6-5 win over the Astros.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged for six runs in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
October 19, 2022
Nola took the loss Wednesday afternoon after 4.2 innings of work, surrendering six runs on seven hits and zero walks while striking out six during the 8-5 defeat to the Padres in Game 2 of the NLCS.
ANALYSIS
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Perfection spoiled in seventh
PPhiladelphia Phillies
October 3, 2022
Nola (11-13) earned the win against the Astros on Monday, allowing no runs on two hits and no walks with nine strikeouts over 6.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Takes 13th loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 28, 2022
Nola (10-13) took the loss Wednesday, allowing four runs on five hits over six innings against the Cubs. He struck out eight.
ANALYSIS
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