This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Tuesday's main slate at FanDuel features 10 games and gets underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal ($11,000) leads three pitchers priced in five-figures, though only two additional arms are priced in the $9,000 range, so we're a bit top heavy on the bump.
The Phillies (-280), Dodgers (-235) and Yankees (-196) are the slate's biggest favorites and we've got double-digit run totals with Phillies - Rockies and A's - Angels. Rain is a concern in Chicago and Minnesota, where winds will be blowing in as well, essentially eliminating those games from consideration. Outbound winds could be a factor in San Francisco.
Pitching
Jesus Luzardo, PHI at COL ($10,600): Perhaps we'll see lower roster percentages due to the Coors Field factor, but it's not a secret we've been targeting against the Rockies all year regardless of where they're playing. Luzardo hasn't allowed more than three runs in any start to date, so there's seemingly a safe floor that's boosted by the Rockies 60 wRC+ off lefties, and Colorado's 28.1 percent K rate creates a ceiling.
Will Warren, NYY vs. TEX ($8,400): Strictly a play based on betting odds here, but they suggest Warren is in for a nice evening. We noted how heavily favored the Yankees are above and we can pair that with the Rangers implied total of 3.2 runs, and it sets up favorably. Texas' 20.6 percent K rate isn't elite, but neither is their .295 wOBA and 89 wRC+. Injuries and poor form have zapped this lineup from being scary.
Logan Henderson, MIL vs. BAL ($8,200): Baltimore fairs better against righties, but still hasn't been elite, posting a .323 wOBA and 23.3 percent strikeout rate. That's what we're targeting, as Henderson is averaging 13.1 per nine after 12.0 at Triple-A. And his 2.45 ERA comes with a 2.31 xFIP. He is a fly ball guy, so that's of concern, and we can't expect a clean outing. But five plus innings with seven plus strikeouts would make him a viable option as a pay-down.
Top Targets
The conversation obviously starts with the Phillies in Coors Field, and they have a run expectancy of 7.7. They are priced up enough where we likely can't stack, so target Trea Turner ($3,900) for stability and floor, while Bryce Harper ($4,300) or Kyle Schwarber ($4,500) are the GPP power plays. Rockies' starter Antonio Senzatela is allowing a .458 wOBA and 1.073 OPS to righties and .412/.940 to lefties.
With a top heavy pitching slate paired with such a clear top offense in the Phillies, this doesn't profile as a slate to pay up for bats across multiple spots. But we also know there will be low roster percentages on big names facing big arms. Arizona qualifies there against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Ketel Marte ($3,700) is 3-for-7 with a homer off of him, and has seven hits and three homers over his last five.
Bargain Bats
Making his first start of the season, it's anyone's guess how long Giants' starter Hayden Birdsong will go. His overall numbers have been solid, with the exception of a .392 wOBA and .931 OPS allowed to lefties, something the Royals are short on. Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,800) is the exception, and he's warming, with two homers in his last four and 17 hits in his last 13.
The Athletics have a 6.1 implied run total, but Angels' starter Kyle Hendricks doesn't have targetable splits. Tyler Soderstrom ($3,400) has just one homer in his last 29 games, so it's difficult to justify this price. Perhaps Shea Langeliers ($3,000) or Jacob Wilson ($3,000) are safer plays in better form.
Cody Bellinger ($3,300) isn't priced up given his current binge. He's riding a 13-game hitting streak, homering four times in that stretch. Rangers' starter Patrick Corbin is allowing a .409 wOBA and .935 OPS to lefties on the road.
Stacks to Consider
Giants vs. Michael Lorenzen (Royals): Heliot Ramos ($3,400), Jung Hoo Lee ($3,100), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,000)
Lorenzen is a curious case Tuesday; he has three quality starts in his last five and has allowed nine runs and 14 hits in his two other outings. Further, he's allowed 21 runs and eight homers on the road against one long ball and two runs at home. He's surrendering a .390 wOBA to righties and .350 to lefties outside of Kansas City, so we can target any and all Giants, who aren't overly trustworthy but cheap to go all in on. Yastrzemski and Ramos are statistically the Giants best off righties, with a .375 and .370 wOBA, respectively. Keep an eye on how they lineup, as Ramos may slot lower in the order and not make this a traditional lineup stack, but other San Francisco options are in play if you want more top of the order plays.
Astros vs. Zack Littell (Rays): Isaac Paredes ($3,200), Jeremy Pena ($3,000), Jose Altuve ($2,700)
Houston is expected to flirt with five runs Tuesday, and their season-long struggles have this stacking option priced way down. Yes, Altuve looks washed, but he's also 4-for-7 off Littell. Pena is 3-for-7 with a homer while Paredes has five hits and five RBI over his last four. Littell has been more vulnerable to righties at home, allowing a .358 wOBA, and he's coughed up 13 homers in 54.1 innings overall.
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