This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
I'm now up to 25 picks this season after a 2-1 showing in last week's article, bringing my season record to 18-7. I don't expect to hit at a 72 percent rate for the remainder of the season, but I've really loved making picks on PrizePicks. I've always found it much easier to make these sorts of picks compared to money lines and totals because there are fewer variables to worry about. This is simply beating one projection, and there are so many statistics in baseball that it makes these much more predictable than the team head-to-heads. With that in mind, let's dive into this Tuesday's plays!
Use Promo Code "ROTOWIRE100" to receive a bonus on a deposit.
Check out our Prize Picks Tool Page as well.
Nick Martinez, CIN at PIT: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
I had a difficult time picking between Martinez's outs prop or his 4.5 strikeouts, but we'll go with the outs. The reason for that is his recent form, providing a 2.05 ERA and 0.98 WHIP across his last five starts. The only concern in that span is the strikeouts, with Martinez recording at least 17 outs in all five of those starts.
It's always worrisome to use Cincy pitchers in Great American Ballpark, but we don't have to worry about that here. On the contrary, PNC Park has been one of the best pitcher's parks over the last decade. That looks even better when evaluating the Pirates' numbers, with Pittsburgh ranked 29th or 30th in runs scored, OPS and wOBA. In his last start against them, Martinez allowed just two hits and no walks across six scoreless innings, despite throwing just 78 pitches.
Patrick Corbin, TEX at NYY: More Than 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
It's hard to believe how well Corbin has pitched this season. That's why we'll bet on some negative regression, with Corbin compiling a 5.51 ERA and 1.52 WHIP since 2020. That's the worst ERA in that span, and we're willing to trust that 782-inning sample more than the 38-inning sample from this season. The 4.72 FIP is also much higher than his 3.35 ERA, so we expect some of that negative regression to arrive in this horrid matchup.
The Yankees have been one of the best offenses in baseball, ranked first in OBP and third in runs scored. That's what we've seen for a few years, and they obviously benefit from hitting in a tiny park like Yankee Stadium. That's why they're projected to score 5.5 runs in this game, and it's easy to understand why when looking at their lineup. Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe all have the platoon advantage against Corbin, while DJ LeMahieu and Cody Bellinger have killed this lefty throughout their careers.
Jameson Taillon, CHC vs. MIA: More Than 17.5 Outs Recorded
Whenever the White Sox, Rockies or Marlins are on the slate, there's a good chance we'll use a pitcher against them. These are simply the worst lineups in baseball, with Miami ranked 19th in K rate and runs scored. We expect that number to fall, because they were 28th or 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and wOBA last year.
Taillon just had a successful start against this poor lineup last week, allowing four baserunners across six sparkling innings. He's now allowed just seven baserunners across 11 innings in his last two starts against Miami, completing at least 18 outs in three of his last four starts. Taillon also has a 3.77 ERA and 1.01 WHIP since struggling in the opener, and benefits from pitching in this spacious ballpark.
Aaron Judge, NYY vs. TEX: More Than 9.5 Fantasy Score
Let's piggyback our Corbin selection with a Judge prop. The simple fact is, Judge is one of the safest prop plays on every slate because he's productive in nearly every game. The season-long numbers tell the whole story, with Judge generating a .401 AVG, .490 OBP and 1.241 OPS. That might sound like a fluke, but this guy has a 1.100 OPS over the last three seasons!
All of that has allowed Judge to reach double-digit fantasy points in 28 of 46 games this year, and we expect one of those in this matchup. We already discussed how poor Corbin has been over recent years, but we never mentioned Judge's splits. The slugger has a .595 OBP, 1.214 and 1.809 OPS against southpaws this season. It would be silly to even pitch to Judge in this game, but Corbin might not have a choice with how packed we expect the base paths to be.
