Jeremy Pena

Jeremy Pena

26-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Houston Astros
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Pena fanned less and walked more than he did in his rookie season. Pena's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate were essentially the same. However, he flattened his swing, resulting in more grounders and a three mph drop in flyball average exit velocity, cutting his HR/FB mark in half. The change helped boost his BABIP by 25 points, but Pena's power was crushed as he left the yard only 10 times, 12 fewer times than his first season, despite 76 more plate appearances. He stole two more bases, but he profiled as someone who would take advantage of the new rules. It was sage to expect Pena to fall short of his freshman season, but the way he did it was curious, morphing into an extreme groundball hitter. From a fantasy perspective, Pena's transition is better for batting average, but he doesn't steal ample bases to be a top tier shortstop unless he reverts to hitting more flyballs. Pena is why tracking stats when drafting is precarious. He's likely going to be a fantasy asset, but the distribution of his stats has a wide range of possibilities. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#250
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $754,900 contract with the Astros in March of 2023.
Has new stance
SSHouston Astros
February 20, 2024
Pena overhauled his batting stance during the offseason, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Pena was essentially a league-average hitter in many aspects last season, but he posted just a .118 ISO across 634 plate appearances. To unlock more power in 2024, he reworked his stance to minimize movement while focusing on driving balls to all areas of the field. Manager Joe Espada has noted early in spring training that Pena looks more athletic and comfortable in the box while lifting the ball more. The latter will be a key to his potential jump in home runs, as he has only a 29.5 flyball percentage across 1,192 career plate appearances.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2023 MLB Game Log
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Scoring
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2022 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
8
30
1
28
16
15
7
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
4
14
9
11
6
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+25%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
+27%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+22%
OPS vs LHP
2021
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .828 326 57 10 35 7 .307 .350 .479
Since 2021vs Right .665 860 96 22 80 17 .240 .291 .374
2023vs Left .834 174 29 3 16 5 .325 .368 .466
2023vs Right .655 457 52 7 36 8 .239 .307 .348
2022vs Left .822 152 28 7 19 2 .286 .329 .493
2022vs Right .675 403 44 15 44 9 .241 .274 .402
2021vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
Even Split
2023
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+8%
OPS at Home
2021
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .710 591 77 19 61 19 .252 .303 .407
Since 2021Away .710 595 76 13 54 5 .265 .311 .398
2023Home .679 316 41 5 26 10 .242 .314 .365
2023Away .731 315 40 5 26 3 .284 .333 .397
2022Home .743 275 36 14 35 9 .262 .291 .452
2022Away .686 280 36 8 28 2 .244 .287 .399
2021Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Jeremy Pena compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.33
 
BB Rate
6.8%
 
K Rate
20.4%
 
BABIP
.323
 
ISO
.118
 
AVG
.263
 
OBP
.324
 
SLG
.381
 
OPS
.705
 
wOBA
.313
 
Exit Velocity
88.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
29.1%
 
Barrels/PA
2.8%
 
Expected BA
.259
 
Expected SLG
.370
 
Sprint Speed
26.0 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
54.3%
 
Line Drive %
19.1%
 
Fly Ball %
26.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Pena had the task of replacing the void left by Carlos Correa's departure in free agency over the winter. Pena had no major league experience coming into the season and had just 160 plate appearances at the minor league level the previous season, but finished the season slightly better than league average with a 102 wRC+. Few would have projected him with double-digit steals let alone double-digit homers, yet the rookie did both hitting more homers in 2022 than he had in his professional baseball career from 2018-2021 and stole more bases than he did in 2019 and 2021 combined. He didn't accept many walks in Triple-A in 2021 and accepted even fewer as a rookie while striking out often, but the Houston lineup was deep enough to absorb these risks and keep his excellent defense in the lineup as often as it was. The profile is rather reminscent of a younger Javier Baez with perhaps a little more contact, but the same types of risks apply with the conditions ripe for a sophomore slump.
Pena would have been excused for having a lost season in 2021 after undergoing wrist surgery in April, but he returned in August and did enough damage at Triple-A to be firmly on the redraft radar with the offseason departure of Carlos Correa. Seen as more of a glove-first, light-hitting shortstop in 2019, Pena transformed his body over the last two seasons and he's now a ripped 6-foot, 202 pounds and has a chance to regularly impact the baseball. Pena hit .287/.346/.598 with 10 home runs, five steals (on six attempts), a 26.3 K% and a 4.5 BB% in 30 games at Triple-A, good for a 126 wRC+. As an above-average runner with improving power and a clear path to playing time, Pena is a viable mid-round pick in 50-round draft and holds and an endgame option in competitive 15-teamers. He has sacrificed his hit tool to unlock this power, and there is some risk that he could post a harmful batting average if he wins the starting shortstop job in spring training.
Pena was selected in the third round of the 2018 draft on the strength of his shortstop defense, and with each ensuing year he has made enough offensive strides to keep the dream of him becoming an everyday MLB shortstop alive. He impressed all summer at the alternate training site and then capped a strong 2020 season with a quality showing in the Dominican winter league. If he hits enough to play every day, Pena has the speed to steal 15-20 bases annually. At 6-foot, 202 pounds, Pena has the potential to tap into 20-homer power, but he figures to always be hit over power. He has always logged strikeout rates below 20 percent and is a career .290 hitter in the minors. Look for him to spend his age-23 season at Double-A and Triple-A, setting up a potential 2022 MLB debut.
If Pena were a couple years younger, he would be a much more exciting prospect, but we are forced to wait and see how the 22-year-old shortstop handles his first exposure to Double-A before jumping in with two feet. A plus defender, Pena was drafted in the third round in 2018 for his glove, but he has added muscle and did all he could with his bat to prove he can hit enough to be a regular. He logged a 138 wRC+ with excellent plate skills at Low-A. After his promotion to High-A, he had a 146 wRC+ with fewer strikeouts (17.8 K%) and much fewer walks (6.5 BB%). Pena is pretty good at using the whole field, but his linedrive rate was below-average at both stops. His ability to make contact at a solid clip combined with his above-average speed (20-for-30 on SB attempts) makes him interesting. However, even with his defensive chops, he probably needs a trade to have a realistic shot at being an everyday player.
More Fantasy News
Goes through workout Monday
SSHouston Astros
October 9, 2023
Pena, who landed on first base awkwardly for the final out of Sunday's ALDS Game 2 loss to the Twins, was spotted taking infield with his teammates during Monday's workout, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Three-hit effort in loss
SSHouston Astros
September 26, 2023
Pena went 3-for-4 in Tuesday's 6-2 loss to the Mariners.
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Records two steals
SSHouston Astros
September 23, 2023
Pena went 2-for-4 with two stolen bases in Saturday's 3-2 loss to the Royals.
ANALYSIS
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Hitting well in September
SSHouston Astros
September 19, 2023
Pena went 1-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI on Monday against the Orioles.
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Records five hits in blowout
SSHouston Astros
August 28, 2023
Pena went 5-for-6 with a triple, a double and three RBI in Sunday's 17-4 win over the Tigers.
ANALYSIS
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