There is only one more Monday left in the regular season after today. That's a sad reality, but it's been an amazing baseball season to dissect. What makes it even better is that I have no clue who's going to win it all. We can't ask for any more as baseball fans, and it should lead to an exciting final two weeks. With that in mind, let's get started with a pitcher from one of the top contenders in the AL.
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Pitching
Carlos Rodon, NYY at MIN ($9,700)
Rodon has quietly had an amazing season in New York. The left-hander has a 3.12 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while surrendering two runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts. Rodon has also allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of his last 25 outings while generating a 2.75 ERA and 9.3 K/9 rate in that span. You can't ask for much more, especially since he has a matchup with Minnesota. The Twins traded away half of their lineup at the deadline, and rank 21st in OBP and 24th in runs scored. Rodon faced them a month ago and allowed just one hit across seven sparkling innings.
Kyle Bradish, BAL at CWS ($9,200)
I had Bradish in my PrizePicks article last week, and we're going right back to the well. While injuries have limited his appearances, Bradish has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last three years. The righty has a 2.65 ERA and 0.94 WHIP this season while registering a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in that three-year span, and we're certainly not worried about a matchup with the White Sox. Chicago sits 27th in wOBA, 28th in OBP, 25th in xwOBA and 26th in runs scored. When he faced them last season, Bradish threw seven no-hit innings while striking out 11 batters!
Top Targets
Corbin Carroll, ARI (vs. Kai-Wei Teng) $6,100
It's been a rough year for the D'Backs after their surprise World Series appearance, but it's not Carroll's fault. The All-Star has returned to the MVP-caliber form we saw two years ago, collecting 30 homers and 28 steals en route to an .881 OPS. That's the best OPS that Carroll's ever compiled, and it looks even better since he has a .376 OBP and .933 OPS across his last 42 fixtures. He also has 15 steals in that span while posting a .932 OPS against right-handers this season. That's rough for the worst righty on this slate, which we'll discuss more in the Stacks To Consider section.
Jazz Chisholm, NYY (vs. Simeon Woods Richardson) $5,300
Many people might not realize this, but Chisholm and Carroll are having nearly identical seasons. Jazz is up to 29 homers and 30 steals while totaling an .833 OPS. That power-speed prowess has been on full display recently, with Chisolm collecting 10 homers and 16 steals across his last 30 fixtures. He also has a .377 OBP and .975 OPS in that span, while amassing an .870 OPS with the platoon advantage. He's one of the key pieces to one of our top stacks below.
Bargain Bats
Yordan Alvarez, HOU (vs. Jack Leiter) $4,400
How wild is it to see Alvarez at this salary? This guy has been closer to $6k throughout his career, and he's slowly creeping back to an elite level of production. Alvarez has a .449 OBP and 1.026 OPS across his last 16 outings. That would look like a flukey stretch for most, but we're talking about a guy who has a .388 career OBP and .961 OPS. Alvarez also has the platoon advantage against Leiter, who has a 4.88 career ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Houston has been one of the best offenses lately, and they're an easy team to stack around Yordan. Jeremy Pena ($4,600) and Christian Walker ($3,800) look like the best pairings with Alvarez.
Austin Hays, CIN (vs. Matthew Liberatore) $4,000
Here's another guy who's quietly having a strong season. Hays has been hitting cleanup for the Reds, tallying a .265 AVG and .777 OPS. That's all you can ask for from such an affordable player, and it's backed by a .292 AVG and .883 OPS across his last 12 outings. The best part about this is that he has the platoon advantage against Liberatore, accruing a .423 OBP and 1.017 OPS against lefties. It's not like Liberatore worries us either, as he's accumulated a 5.82 ERA and 1.66 WHIP across his last 10 starts. If you want to stack Cincy, we'd use Noelvi Marte ($3,800) with Hays.
Stacks to Consider
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants (Teng): Carroll ($6,100), Ketel Marte ($5,600), Geraldo Perdomo ($5,100)
Arizona was the highest-scoring team in baseball last season, and they're still a scary stack against subpar pitching. That's certainly what we have here because Teng has a 7.54 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his first year as a starter. His 8.28 career ERA and 1.87 WHIP make it hard to believe he's still being sent out there, but we're going to stack against him as long as he's toeing the rubber.
Carroll is the mandatory piece of this Arizona stack, but Marte is right there with him. Ketel has a .379 OBP and .905 OPS since May 8. He's also got better splits against righties this year, registering a .382 OBP and .893 OPS. Perdomo might be the biggest surprise in the sport, providing 19 homers and 26 steals en route to a .842 OPS. He's also got a .426 OBP and .985 OPS across his last 41 fixtures.
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins (Woods Richardson): Aaron Judge ($6,500), Chisholm ($5,300), Giancarlo Stanton ($4,900), Cody Bellinger ($4,800)
The Yankees are a top-five offense in nearly every metric, and we don't want to fade them against a pitcher like Woods Richardson. The Twins starter is simply a fill-in, sporting a 4.58 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Those numbers were much worse before facing the Angels and White Sox, but the Yanks should help the regression monster have its way with Richardson.
Judge is the obvious choice in a Yankees, stack, posting an OPS north of 1.100 over the last three years. Chisholm was discussed above. Stanton has been one of the best sluggers over the last decade while producing a 1.022 OPS across his last 52 outings. Bellinger is the final piece with the platoon advantage, posting a .834 OPS in a bounce-back season.
