Matthew Liberatore

Matthew Liberatore

24-Year-Old PitcherSP
St. Louis Cardinals
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Liberatore has one of the prettiest curveballs you will see in baseball. The league hit .222 off his curveball with a 35% Whiff Rate as it is his primary weapon of choice to put away hitters. The problem with Liberatore is his fastball was incredibly hittable last season as the league hit .364 against the pitch while slugging .673 off it. This is why he has struggled both at the major and upper minors since the year off in 2020 with walks, homers, and too many baserunners. The Cardinals did not even put him on the postseason roster, and he does not appear to have a shot at a spot in the rotation to start the season unless Jack Flaherty or Steven Matz break down again. It is tough to give up on someone whose velocity and movement are similar to Reid Detmers and Max Fried (according to StatCast), but he is current a distant third in that trio until something improves with his fastball. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#585
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Cardinals in March of 2023.
Tagged with loss
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 22, 2023
Liberatore (3-6) allowed two runs on two hits and struck out one over two-thirds of an inning to take the loss Friday versus the Padres.
ANALYSIS
The young lefty surrendered a two-run home run to Manny Machado in the eighth inning, ending Liberatore's eight-inning scoreless streak. He has a 5.52 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 44:24 K:BB through 58.2 innings across 19 outings (11 starts) this season.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2020
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
48
Last 10 Games
18
Last 5 Games
13
How many pitches does Matthew Liberatore generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Matthew Liberatore generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-38%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-46%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-28%
BAA vs LHP
2021
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .193 95 18 6 16 4 0 1
Since 2021vs Right .311 341 56 37 92 30 4 9
2023vs Left .163 55 9 1 8 3 0 1
2023vs Right .302 220 37 24 58 19 2 4
2022vs Left .235 40 9 5 8 1 0 0
2022vs Right .327 121 19 13 34 11 2 5
2021vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-73%
ERA at Home
2021
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 3.86 1.48 46.2 3 3 0 7.3 3.9 0.6
Since 2021Away 7.07 1.65 49.2 2 5 0 6.5 4.2 1.3
2023Home 4.46 1.57 34.1 1 3 0 7.1 3.9 0.5
2023Away 6.26 1.35 27.1 2 3 0 6.3 3.3 1.0
2022Home 2.19 1.22 12.1 2 0 0 8.0 3.6 0.7
2022Away 8.06 2.01 22.1 0 2 0 6.9 5.2 1.6
2021Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Matthew Liberatore compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.84
 
K/9
6.7
 
BB/9
3.6
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
94.3 mph
 
ERA
5.25
 
WHIP
1.48
 
BABIP
.323
 
GB/FB
1.41
 
Left On Base
58.3%
 
Exit Velocity
83.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.8%
 
Spin Rate
2216 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
25.6%
 
Swinging Strike
7.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
While Liberatore's fastball is just OK, his slider has emerged as a dominant offering. The pitch got whiffs 41% of the time and was thrown for strikes 71% of the time, and that success helped the 6-foot-5 southpaw put up a strong final full season in the minors. His 124.2 innings were the 11th most in the minors and fifth most by a fantasy-relevant pitcher. He had a 4.04 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year, but he finished strong, logging a 2.67 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 57:17 K:BB in 57.1 innings over his final 10 starts. In addition to his low-90s fastball and plus slider, he also throws a curveball and a changeup, both of which have above-average potential. While he is not on the 40-man roster, Liberatore represents the Cardinals' clear best starter in the minors, so it seems inevitable that he will spend a portion of this season in the big-league rotation, provided he stays healthy. The Cardinals offer excellent team context (defense, ballpark, division), and while Liberatore isn't so elite that he would be a set-it-and-forget-it option, he should at least be streamable in favorable matchups.
Through no fault of his own, Liberatore will inevitably be judged against Randy Arozarena, as the two were the headlining pieces in last offseason's trade between the Rays and Cardinals. While Arozarena's stock has taken off like a rocket ship since the trade, Liberatore's stock has taken a slight hit with the emergence of TrackMan data on public sites, such as Prospects Live. The 6-foot-5 lefty gets poor extension on his low-spin low-90s fastball, meaning it will play below its velocity. His curveball and changeup are quality offspeed offerings and he could develop plus command, so Liberatore's future is in the rotation, but this seems like a nice offseason to cash him out in dynasty leagues. He may open at High-A, but he should spend the bulk of 2021 at Double-A, setting up a potential 2022 MLB debut.
A high-pedigree lefty with an excellent 6-foot-5, 200-pound frame, Liberatore largely lived up to expectations in his first full season. The target was 115 innings, and he was on that pace until an ineffective July (17 ER, 12 BB in 21.1 IP), which was followed by missed time in August with a back spasms. Prior to July, he had a 1.50 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 49 strikeouts in 48 innings (eight starts). He also finished strong after returning from the injured list (1.80 ERA, 10:2 K:BB in 10 IP). Liberatore commands a plus low-90s fastball that touches 97 mph, and his curveball is one of the best in the minors. He also has a quality changeup and useable slider. His deep arsenal, above-average command and ability to induce weak contact (57.3 GB%) point to at least a mid-rotation role, with a chance for a little more if his changeup or slider improves. He was shipped to St. Louis in a multi-player trade this offseason.
Any investment in a prep pitcher who has not made his full-season debut is fraught with risk, but Liberatore has the qualities dynasty-league managers should be looking for when contemplating taking that plunge. A 6-foot-5, 200-pound southpaw, Liberatore was in the mix to be a top-five pick in 2018, but his velocity ticked down and he scuffled with his command late in his senior year. That small sample led to the Rays getting a bargain with the No. 16 overall pick. Liberatore was sitting 92-93 mph with his fastball and touched 95 mph after signing. He also boasts a plus curveball and a changeup that projects as another plus secondary offering. There is no guarantee that he will add velocity in the coming years, but given his age and projectable frame, it would not be surprising if he were sitting 94-95 mph with his heater by the time he reaches the majors. That would all add up to a frontline starter, given his athleticism and expected command gains.
More Fantasy News
Awarded win Friday
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 8, 2023
Liberatore (3-5) walked one and struck out three over 1.1 scoreless and hitless innings to earn the win Friday over the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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Set for bullpen role
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 5, 2023
Liberatore (back) will pitch out of the bullpen for the Cardinals after he was reinstated from the 15-day injured list Monday, Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest reports.
ANALYSIS
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Returns from IL
PSt. Louis Cardinals
September 5, 2023
Liberatore (back) was activated from the 15-day injured list Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Another inefficient rehab start
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Back
September 3, 2023
Liberatore (back) struck out six while allowing two runs (one earned) on three hits and five walks over three innings in his rehab start Sunday for Triple-A Memphis.
ANALYSIS
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Getting another rehab start
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Back
September 2, 2023
Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Friday that Liberatore (back) is scheduled to make at least one more rehab start at Triple-A Memphis prior to being activated from the 15-day injured list, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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