Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Skubal underwent left flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022 and his rehab extended through the first three months of last season. He was on a limited pitch count initially upon his return and there were some bumps in the road early, but Skubal eventually rounded into form, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 52:6 K:BB in his final six starts (36 innings). A ninth-round pick in 2018, Skubal changed up his formula last season, dialing back his slider usage significantly for more four-seam fastballs and changeups. The changeup proved to be a big swing-and-miss pitch for him (50.6 Whiff% per Statcast) -- he still threw his slider, but the changeup became his primary secondary pitch behind the four-seamer. In total, the southpaw pitched just 95 innings last season, but if healthy, he should approach his career high of 149.1 innings set in 2021. Entering his age-27 season, Skubal will face an uphill battle every time he takes the ball for Detroit, but his skills are enticing. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#50
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.65 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2024.
Strikes out six in win
PDetroit Tigers
July 22, 2024
Skubal (11-3) earned the win against the Guardians on Monday, allowing one run on 10 hits and one walk with six strikeouts over seven innings.
ANALYSIS
Skubal yielded a run on a bases-loaded bunt in the second inning before tossing five straight scoreless frames. Despite allowing a season-high 10 hits, he generated 15 swinging strikes and logged his fifth consecutive quality start. The southpaw now leads the AL with a 2.34 ERA to go along with a 0.92 WHIP and 146:22 K:BB across 123 innings. He projects for a home matchup with the Twins this weekend.
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Pitching Stats
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
87
Last 10 Games
84
Last 5 Games
79
How many pitches does Tarik Skubal generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Tarik Skubal generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-40%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2022vs Left .200 233 48 7 44 9 1 3
Since 2022vs Right .216 1040 317 61 209 49 7 20
2024vs Left .175 87 26 4 14 1 1 1
2024vs Right .205 399 120 18 77 18 2 9
2023vs Left .125 42 4 2 5 0 0 1
2023vs Right .210 268 98 12 53 11 3 3
2022vs Left .250 104 18 1 25 8 0 1
2022vs Right .234 373 99 31 79 20 2 8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2022
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-32%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-67%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2022Home 2.28 0.94 153.2 13 5 0 10.1 2.2 0.5
Since 2022Away 3.44 1.05 167.1 12 9 0 10.3 1.6 0.8
2024Home 1.87 0.83 57.2 6 0 0 10.3 2.0 0.5
2024Away 2.76 0.99 65.1 5 3 0 11.0 1.2 1.0
2023Home 1.37 0.79 39.1 3 1 0 13.5 1.6 0.5
2023Away 4.17 1.00 41.0 4 2 0 9.4 1.5 0.4
2022Home 3.34 1.16 56.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.9 0.6
2022Away 3.69 1.15 61.0 3 4 0 10.2 2.1 0.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Tarik Skubal compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
6.64
 
K/9
10.7
 
BB/9
1.6
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
96.8 mph
 
ERA
2.34
 
WHIP
0.92
 
BABIP
.287
 
GB/FB
1.58
 
Left On Base
78.8%
 
Exit Velocity
81.6 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.0%
 
Spin Rate
2049 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
19.3%
 
Swinging Strike
15.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Tarik Skubal See More
Mound Musings: The Trade Winds Are VERY Gently Blowing
Yesterday
Brad Johnson looks at pitchers who could be on the move soon, including Garrett Crochet who will come with a big price tag.
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays and Strategy for Monday, June 22
4 days ago
Scoring at least 18 points in 16 of his last 19 starts, Tarik Skubal is the top pitching option for Monday DraftKings MLB DFS contests.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Proceed with Caution
6 days ago
Tarik Skubal's pair of starts make him the top pitcher of the week.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: The Short and Long of It
8 days ago
Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies helps kick off the second half of the MLB season, and he's one of the headliners of Todd Zola's double dose of Weekly Pitcher Rankings.
Collette Calls: How Much Do They Have Left In The Tank?
14 days ago
Converted relievers like Garrett Crochet have had plenty of success in the first half, but will they have enough left to be productive after the break?
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Skubal appeared to be in the middle of a breakout campaign in 2022, but the lefty was unfortunately shut down in early August with left arm fatigue, and he subsequently underwent flexor tendon surgery. Before getting shut down, Skubal had posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 117 strikeouts across 117.2 innings. His K/9 dipped from 9.88 in 2021 to 8.95 in 2022, but his numbers were otherwise better across the board, including an impressive 2.95 FIP. Skubal will only be 24 years old when the 2023 season begins, so there's still plenty of potential here down the road, but he's expected to begin the year on the injured list and miss a decent chunk of time. Fantasy managers in standard leagues will want to keep an eye on Skubal, and he could be a decent pickup when he returns, though the Tigers will undoubtedly be cautious with him. He does have more value in keeper and dynasty formats, where his outlook beyond 2023 looks brighter.
To say Skubal's 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP were league average is burying the lede. He posted those ratios despite a 5.5% home run rate, second to only Mike Foltynewicz among starting pitchers. Skubal kept his ratios in check with a 25.9 K% and 7.4 BB%. His 18.5 K-BB% was an impressive 27th among pitchers with at least 140 innings. Skubal's four-seamer was responsible for 22 of his 35 homers. Better location or even cutting back on its 43% usage rate could help Skubal keep the ball in the yard. The changeup was Skubal's most effective pitch with an 18.8 SwStr%, followed by his slider at 15%. Skubal's potential and likely presence on so-called sleeper lists will drive up the price for his sophomore campaign, potential wiping out profit. On the other hand, there are pathways to fewer homers, with that road potentially leading to elite status.
Skubal had an uneven rookie season, but he emerged healthy and should have a rotation spot locked up for the foreseeable future. The 6-foot-3 southpaw's 94-mph fourseamer can touch 98 mph and plays up even more due to deception and extension. The rest of Skubal's repertoire is a work in progress, but a big lefty with a fastball that plays as a 70-grade pitch is a nice place to start. He has always been a flyball pitcher, and he gave up more home runs (nine) in 32 MLB innings than he did in 145 minor-league innings (seven). His 8.2 BB% was an improvement on the 10.6 BB% he logged at Double-A in 2019. Skubal didn't need to consistently execute his offspeed pitches to have success in the minors, and he should get more comfortable with those pitches going forward. If a couple of them can emerge as trustworthy offerings, he should be an effective high-strikeout starter who is susceptible to the long ball.
Skubal would be one of the game's best pitching prospects if we just scouted stats. Poor control caused him to fall in the 2018 draft as a redshirt junior out of Seattle University. He has always missed bats at an elite clip and logged 179 strikeouts in 122.2 innings in his first full season. He does it with a low-to-mid-90s fastball (touches 98) with late life that plays up due to a deceptive left-handed delivery. He doesn't consistently hit his spots, but Skubal's heater can be an unfair pitch regardless of where it is thrown (think Josh Hader), especially for minor leaguers. His middling secondaries play up as well because hitters are forced to gear up for the fastball. Sometimes he will break off a quality curveball or changeup, but they are inconsistent offerings. His injury history, command and secondaries point to a lights-out reliever role, but the Tigers will do their best to make him a starter.
More Fantasy News
Strikes out eight in no-decision
PDetroit Tigers
July 12, 2024
Skubal did not factor into the decision in Friday's 4-3 loss to the Dodgers, allowing two runs on two hits and one walk with eight strikeouts over six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Dazzles for 10th win
PDetroit Tigers
July 7, 2024
Skubal (10-3) allowed one run on three hits over seven innings to earn the win Sunday against the Reds. He struck out 13.
ANALYSIS
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Fans seven in quality start
PDetroit Tigers
July 3, 2024
Skubal came away with a no-decision Tuesday, giving up three runs on four hits and a walk over six innings as the Tigers fell 5-3 to the Twins. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates for ninth win
PDetroit Tigers
June 25, 2024
Skubal (9-3) tossed seven scoreless innings to earn the win Tuesday against the Phillies. He allowed three hits and a walk while striking out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Takes second straight loss
PDetroit Tigers
June 19, 2024
Skubal (8-3) took the loss Wednesday against Atlanta, allowing five runs (four earned) on seven hits and two walks over four innings. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Teams reaching out
PDetroit Tigers
July 22, 2024
The Orioles and Dodgers have had preliminary trade discussions with the Tigers regarding Skubal, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
ANALYSIS
It's hardly surprising that Baltimore and Los Angeles have reached out as a pair of World Series contenders with deep farm systems. Skubal is in the conversation for the AL Cy Young Award this year and has a 2.41 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 140:21K:BB across 116 innings. He's under contract for two more seasons after 2024 and isn't likely to be traded ahead of the July 30 deadline, but Detroit could still offload him if there's an offer too good to turn down.
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