Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Detroit Tigers
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Skubal underwent left flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022 and his rehab extended through the first three months of last season. He was on a limited pitch count initially upon his return and there were some bumps in the road early, but Skubal eventually rounded into form, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 52:6 K:BB in his final six starts (36 innings). A ninth-round pick in 2018, Skubal changed up his formula last season, dialing back his slider usage significantly for more four-seam fastballs and changeups. The changeup proved to be a big swing-and-miss pitch for him (50.6 Whiff% per Statcast) -- he still threw his slider, but the changeup became his primary secondary pitch behind the four-seamer. In total, the southpaw pitched just 95 innings last season, but if healthy, he should approach his career high of 149.1 innings set in 2021. Entering his age-27 season, Skubal will face an uphill battle every time he takes the ball for Detroit, but his skills are enticing. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#57
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.65 million contract with the Tigers in January of 2024.
Tapped for Opening Day start
PDetroit Tigers
March 1, 2024
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch announced Friday that Skubal will start Opening Day against the White Sox, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Skubal seemed to be an obvious choice after he logged a 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 80.1 innings across 15 starts for the Tigers last season following a return from flexor tendon surgery. The left-hander probably isn't going to be a workhorse but nonetheless possesses ample fantasy upside for the 2024 season.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
81
Last 10 Games
87
Last 5 Games
84
How many pitches does Tarik Skubal generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Tarik Skubal generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-40%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-9%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .236 266 50 10 59 16 0 3
Since 2021vs Right .231 1155 333 83 244 51 5 45
2023vs Left .125 42 4 2 5 0 0 1
2023vs Right .210 268 98 12 53 11 3 3
2022vs Left .250 104 18 1 25 8 0 1
2022vs Right .234 373 99 31 79 20 2 8
2021vs Left .264 120 28 7 29 8 0 1
2021vs Right .240 514 136 40 112 20 0 34
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-67%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 3.03 1.11 187.0 11 12 0 9.8 2.5 0.9
Since 2021Away 4.49 1.18 160.1 11 11 0 10.1 2.3 1.6
2023Home 1.37 0.79 39.1 3 1 0 13.5 1.6 0.5
2023Away 4.17 1.00 41.0 4 2 0 9.4 1.5 0.4
2022Home 3.34 1.16 56.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.9 0.6
2022Away 3.69 1.15 61.0 3 4 0 10.2 2.1 0.7
2021Home 3.56 1.21 91.0 4 7 0 9.5 2.7 1.3
2021Away 5.55 1.34 58.1 4 5 0 10.5 3.1 3.4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Tarik Skubal compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
7.29
 
K/9
11.4
 
BB/9
1.6
 
HR/9
0.4
 
Fastball
95.8 mph
 
ERA
2.80
 
WHIP
0.90
 
BABIP
.302
 
GB/FB
1.94
 
Left On Base
66.3%
 
Exit Velocity
81.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.9%
 
Spin Rate
2040 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.1%
 
Swinging Strike
15.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Tarik Skubal See More
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24 days ago
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26 days ago
Jason Collette tackles four bullpens with uncertain late-inning hierarchies, including a Philadelphia pen in which Jeff Hoffman could earn quite a few saves.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
Skubal appeared to be in the middle of a breakout campaign in 2022, but the lefty was unfortunately shut down in early August with left arm fatigue, and he subsequently underwent flexor tendon surgery. Before getting shut down, Skubal had posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 117 strikeouts across 117.2 innings. His K/9 dipped from 9.88 in 2021 to 8.95 in 2022, but his numbers were otherwise better across the board, including an impressive 2.95 FIP. Skubal will only be 24 years old when the 2023 season begins, so there's still plenty of potential here down the road, but he's expected to begin the year on the injured list and miss a decent chunk of time. Fantasy managers in standard leagues will want to keep an eye on Skubal, and he could be a decent pickup when he returns, though the Tigers will undoubtedly be cautious with him. He does have more value in keeper and dynasty formats, where his outlook beyond 2023 looks brighter.
To say Skubal's 4.34 ERA and 1.26 WHIP were league average is burying the lede. He posted those ratios despite a 5.5% home run rate, second to only Mike Foltynewicz among starting pitchers. Skubal kept his ratios in check with a 25.9 K% and 7.4 BB%. His 18.5 K-BB% was an impressive 27th among pitchers with at least 140 innings. Skubal's four-seamer was responsible for 22 of his 35 homers. Better location or even cutting back on its 43% usage rate could help Skubal keep the ball in the yard. The changeup was Skubal's most effective pitch with an 18.8 SwStr%, followed by his slider at 15%. Skubal's potential and likely presence on so-called sleeper lists will drive up the price for his sophomore campaign, potential wiping out profit. On the other hand, there are pathways to fewer homers, with that road potentially leading to elite status.
Skubal had an uneven rookie season, but he emerged healthy and should have a rotation spot locked up for the foreseeable future. The 6-foot-3 southpaw's 94-mph fourseamer can touch 98 mph and plays up even more due to deception and extension. The rest of Skubal's repertoire is a work in progress, but a big lefty with a fastball that plays as a 70-grade pitch is a nice place to start. He has always been a flyball pitcher, and he gave up more home runs (nine) in 32 MLB innings than he did in 145 minor-league innings (seven). His 8.2 BB% was an improvement on the 10.6 BB% he logged at Double-A in 2019. Skubal didn't need to consistently execute his offspeed pitches to have success in the minors, and he should get more comfortable with those pitches going forward. If a couple of them can emerge as trustworthy offerings, he should be an effective high-strikeout starter who is susceptible to the long ball.
Skubal would be one of the game's best pitching prospects if we just scouted stats. Poor control caused him to fall in the 2018 draft as a redshirt junior out of Seattle University. He has always missed bats at an elite clip and logged 179 strikeouts in 122.2 innings in his first full season. He does it with a low-to-mid-90s fastball (touches 98) with late life that plays up due to a deceptive left-handed delivery. He doesn't consistently hit his spots, but Skubal's heater can be an unfair pitch regardless of where it is thrown (think Josh Hader), especially for minor leaguers. His middling secondaries play up as well because hitters are forced to gear up for the fastball. Sometimes he will break off a quality curveball or changeup, but they are inconsistent offerings. His injury history, command and secondaries point to a lights-out reliever role, but the Tigers will do their best to make him a starter.
More Fantasy News
Effective in spring debut
PDetroit Tigers
February 28, 2024
Skubal tossed two scoreless innings in Wednesday's Grapefruit League game against the Pirates. He walked one and struck out two.
ANALYSIS
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Hits 100 mph in live BP
PDetroit Tigers
February 20, 2024
Skubal touched 100 mph on his last pitch of live batting practice Tuesday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Avoids arbitration
PDetroit Tigers
January 11, 2024
Skubal and the Tigers agreed to a one-year, $2.65 million deal Thursday to avoid arbitration, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Ends season on high note
PDetroit Tigers
September 29, 2023
Skubal struck out eight over four scoreless innings but didn't factor into the decision in Wednesday's 8-0 win over the Royals. He gave up two hits and no walks in the 52-pitch start.
ANALYSIS
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Continues dominant stretch
PDetroit Tigers
September 22, 2023
Skubal (7-3) earned the win over Oakland on Thursday, allowing two hits and issuing one walk while striking out 10 batters over seven scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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