This article is part of our Horse Racing series.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Picks
The most anticipated day in horse racing sets its eyes on Churchill Downs this Saturday for the 'Run for the Roses' in the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby. The 1 ¼ mile (10 furlongs) race is the shortest of the three Triple Crown races and features 20 horses. Post time is scheduled for 6:57 p.m. EST. Let's look at this year's participants along with their morning-line Kentucky Derby odds, record, jockey and trainer.
What time is the Kentucky Derby?
The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set to start at 6:57 PM Eastern and can be seen on NBC. Coverage will begin at 2:30.
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Kentucky Derby 2025 Preview: Contenders and Odds
| Horse | Record (Starts, W-P-S) | ML Odds | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1. Citizen Bull | 6, 4-0-1 | 20-1 | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert |
| 2. Neoequos | 7, 2-2-2 | 30-1 | Flavien Prat | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| 3. Final Gambit | 4, 2-1-1 | 30-1 | Luan Machado | Brad Cox |
| 4. Rodriguez | 5, 2-2-1 | 12-1 | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert |
| 5. American Promise | 9, 2-1-1 | 30-1 | Nik Juarez | D. Wayne Lukas |
| 6. Admire Daytona | 2, 1-0-0 | 30-1 | Christophe Lemaire | Yukihiro Kato |
| 7. Luxor Cafe | 2, 2-0-0 | 15-1 | Joao Moreira | Noriyuki Hori |
| 8. Journalism | 5, 4-0-1 | 3-1 | Umberto Rispoli | Michael McCarthy |
| 9. Burnham Square | 6, 3-1-1 | 12-1 | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Ian Wilkes |
| 10. Grande | 3, 2-1-0 | 20-1 | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher |
| 11. Flying Mohawk | 6, 2-2-0 | 30-1 | Joe Ramos | Whit Beckman |
| 12. East Avenue | 5, 2-1-0 | 20-1 | Manuel Franco | Brendan Walsh |
| 13. Publisher | 7, 0-2-3 | 20-1 | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Steve Asmussen |
| 14. Tiztastic | 8, 3-1-2 | 20-1 | Joel Rosario | Steve Asmussen |
| 15. Render Judgment | 7, 1-2-1 | 30-1 | Julien Leparoux | Kenny McPeek |
| 16. Coal Battle | 8, 5-0-1 | 30-1 | Juan Vargas | Lonnie Briley |
| 17. Sandman | 8, 3-1-2 | 6-1 | Jose Ortiz | Mark Casse |
| 18. Sovereignty | 5, 2-2-0 | 5-1 | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott |
| 19. Chunk of Gold | 4, 1-3-0 | 30-1 | Jareth Loveberry | Ethan West |
| 20. Owen Almighty | 7, 3-2-0 | 30-1 | Javier Castellano | Brian Lynch |
| 21. Baeza (AE) | 4, 1-2-0 | 12-1 | Flavien Prat | John Shirreffs |
Past Kentucky Derby Winners
2024: Mystik Dan (18-1)
2023: Mage (15-1)
2022: Rich Strike (80-1)
2021: Mandaloun (26-1) *Medina Spirit (12-1) was later disqualified for a positive drug test
2020: Authentic (8-1)
2019: Country House (65-1)
2018: Justify (5-2)
2017: Always Dreaming (9-2)
2016: Nyquist (2-1)
2015: American Pharoah (5-2)
Following a stretch of four single-digit payout winners from 2015-2019, we've seen horses with double-digit odds win the race in five of the last six years. That includes a pair of shocking upsets in Country House and Rich Strike. American Pharoah and Justify are the two Triple Crown winners on the list.
Top Kentucky Derby Favorites: Must-Know Insights
Journalism checks in as the morning-line favorite at 3-1 and with good reason. Since a third place finish in his racing debut, he's rolled off four consecutive victories, including a pair of Grade 2 races and most recently in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. If you're looking to find a flaw, the connections don't have much Derby experience outside of Umberto Rispoli and Michael McCarthy pairing together in Endlessly's ninth-place finish last year. Expect Journalism to settle in around the middle of the pack and look to surge in the stretch run with his strong closing speed.
Sovereignty and Sandman are the other two horses with single-digit ML odds. Sovereignty has finished in the top 2 in 4-of-5 races, notably winning the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Sandman is my preference between the two, however, as he has a bigger win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by over two lengths, a race that last year's winner Mystik Dan took third in.
Analyzing Kentucky Derby 2025 Early Pace Strategies
East Avenue is the favorite to grab the early lead, although being sandwiched in the middle could provide a slight challenge. He got off to a fast start in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes last month, building up a three length lead by the half-mile pole before being caught by a nose by Burnham Square at the wire.
Another candidate to start off strong is Citizen Bull, assuming he can get a clear break off the rail. He led at the half and three-quarter mile mark of the Santa Anita Derby but faded badly to finish fourth (out of five horses), and there are certainly question marks on if he'll be able to control the pace and hang on at a mile and a quarter.
Late Pace Contenders
Final Gambit is one of the lesser tested horses in this field as he broke his maiden in February and then went to win the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks (have to love the play-on-words there) in March at 15-1 odds to get into the Derby. He was second-to-last with three furlongs to go and won easily, displaying some serious late speed. Trainer Brad Cox won with Mandaloun in 2021.
Coming in with matching 30-1 morning-line odds to Final Gambit is Flying Mohawk, who also made up a lot of ground at the Jeff Ruby Steaks in its last start to finish second (*note that Rich Strike was third in the Jeff Ruby prior to his Derby win). The colt would certainly be a surprise winner but could benefit if the fractions are fast in the early going and the leaders tire in the stretch run.
Potential Darkhorses to Watch in the 2025 Kentucky Derby
When you look at the connections of Rodriguez, this is simply a horse bettors won't want to overlook. Jockey Mike Smith is a two-time Derby winner, and six-time event winning trainer Bob Baffert makes his return to the Derby following a three-year suspension from Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit's failed drug test and vacated win in 2021. Rodriguez ran a big race at Aqueduct last month, winning the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by 3.5 lengths.
Coal Battle comes in with much longer odds at 30-1, but you can't underestimate his five wins which are the most of any horse in the race. The most prestigious victory came at the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in which Sandman took third. Sandman got the better of him a month later at the Arkansas Derby, where Coal Battle took third. Certainly someone I'd consider using in my exotic wagers.
We also have two international horses in this race in Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe who are both coming over from Japan, and it's easy for them to get overlooked due to a lack of data and being harder to compare to the horses that race in the U.S. With that said, Forever Young took third last year and T O Password was fifth, so don't make the mistake of immediately writing them off, and I think bettors would be wise to in particular to consider Luxor Cafe in their exotic wagers.
How To Bet On the Kentucky Derby: A Beginner's Guide
Win Bet: This is the most common horse racing bet. You're wagering on a horse strictly to win. Second or dead last both pays zero. Bet on as many horses to win as you like!
Place Bet: Betting on a horse to place means you'll win if the horse(s) you bet on finishes first or second, giving you a better chance of cashing a ticket.
Show Bet: If you bet on a horse to show, you'll win if your horse finishes in the top three. Best saved for horses with longer odds.
Across the Board: If you bet on a horse across the board, you're betting them to win, place and show. If your horse wins, you cash all three! A $2 across the board bet will cost $6. My dad's favorite bet!
Exacta: An exacta wager is betting on the two horses that come in first and second. You can bet on multiple horses to finish first and multiple to finish second to give yourself more chances. Often times, handicappers will do an exacta box with several horses in which they'll win no matter which of their horses comes in first or second. A $1 exacta wager tends to be the most common.
Trifecta: Selecting the top-3 finishers is called a trifecta, and often comes with a big payout due to the degree of difficulty - especially in a 20 horse race. Just like the exacta, you can box the trifecta, although the additional combinations make a lot of bettors choose $.50 trifecta wager.
Superfecta: If you really like to gamble, the superfecta pays out for correctly picking the top-4 finishers in order. Don't be afraid to throw some longshots in your selections, as you'll often see a 50-1 shot or longer sneak into the top-4. A $.10 superfecta wager allows for a wealth of combinations.
Daily Double: If you like to have action on multiple races, the Daily Double pays out for correctly picking horses in two consecutive races. Feel free to pick multiple horses in each race to give yourself more combinations, albeit at a higher cost. You can pair the Kentucky Derby Daily Double with the race before or the race after.
Kentucky Derby Predictions
In looking back at recent Kentucky Derby races, we constantly see a fast pace. In each of the last three years, the opening quarter has gone in under 23 seconds, and it's a speed the early pace setters can't contain for 10 furlongs. Those with late speed tend to set up better here, and I can't fault anyone who settles on Journalism, especially if he doesn't drop below 5-2 odds. With that said, Rodriguez's speed rating in the Wood Memorial was the best in that race since 2015, and I have the confidence in veteran Mike Smith to give him a great trip and pull off the upset.
My Bets
Win: 4
Exacta: 16,17/4,5,7,8,16,17 ($1 Exacta wheel would cost $10)
Trifecta: 8/4,5,16,17/4,5,7,8,16,17 ($0.50 Trifecta wheel would cost $10)
