Pitching 3D: Grading the NL East

Pitching 3D: Grading the NL East

This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.

Now that the horrific pitching environment of the AL East is out of our way, let's switch gears and break down the star-studded staffs of the NL East division. The rationale of these rankings is the same as Tuesday's, with grades that are based on first-half performance relative to where they were drafted before the season. In other words, the big picks (Kershaw) have to pitch much better to earn their "A" (he has). The grades are based on the first half, but the descriptions for each player will lean toward what we can expect from them in the second half of the season.

Atlanta Braves

Julio Teheran

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 106 3 2.46 0.89 99

Teheran has come alive recently and is in the midst of a dominant stretch of baseball. There's not much that he can do about the paltry win total, given a supporting offense that might struggle to score in Albuquerque, but Teheran is likely to be one of the game's hottest commodities at the trade deadline. If he does get dealt and this new tier of performance is sustainable, then he could have a monster second half. I liked his odds for a rebound before the season began, and I like his odds of maintaining a large chunk of his gains. He won't be this good -- his hit rate of 5.9 H/9 is bound to regress upward, but if the peripherals (Ks and walks) hold strong then so will the
Now that the horrific pitching environment of the AL East is out of our way, let's switch gears and break down the star-studded staffs of the NL East division. The rationale of these rankings is the same as Tuesday's, with grades that are based on first-half performance relative to where they were drafted before the season. In other words, the big picks (Kershaw) have to pitch much better to earn their "A" (he has). The grades are based on the first half, but the descriptions for each player will lean toward what we can expect from them in the second half of the season.

Atlanta Braves

Julio Teheran

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 106 3 2.46 0.89 99

Teheran has come alive recently and is in the midst of a dominant stretch of baseball. There's not much that he can do about the paltry win total, given a supporting offense that might struggle to score in Albuquerque, but Teheran is likely to be one of the game's hottest commodities at the trade deadline. If he does get dealt and this new tier of performance is sustainable, then he could have a monster second half. I liked his odds for a rebound before the season began, and I like his odds of maintaining a large chunk of his gains. He won't be this good -- his hit rate of 5.9 H/9 is bound to regress upward, but if the peripherals (Ks and walks) hold strong then so will the fantasy ratios (ERA and WHIP).

Grade: A-

Matt Wisler

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 95.2 3 4.14 1.22 70

Considering that Teheran was the only Atlanta arm in the starting rotation that was considered fantasy viable, Wisler has done all right for himself. His peripherals leave a lot of room for things to go haywire, with hit and walk rates that are merely decent to go with just 6.6 K/9, leaving him at the mercy of the whims of balls in play. He's more of a stream option in the second half, but with Ws out of the equation and strikeouts at a minimum, rostering Wisler requires a manager to cover his eyes until each of his starts is over.

Grade: C+

There are more Braves in the rotation, but they're not worth your time in fantasy (Bud Norris) or have already been demoted due to poor performance (Aaron Blair). Besides, the rest of the division is loaded.

Miami Marlins

Jose Fernandez

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 94.2 10 2.28 0.99 138

Fernandez serves as a good example of the grading system. He was costly on draft day, elevating the bar of expectations, but with any player (especially pitchers), simply meeting expectations is worth more than an average ("C") grade. If Fern had a 3.00 ERA with 100 strikeouts over 90 frames, his owners would be pretty happy with it, especially given the risk inherent with a pitcher who is returning from major surgery. Such a performance would warrant a "B" grade, for meeting lofty expectations, but in reality Fernandez blew right past that. He has been a strikeout steamroller, leading the majors with an insane 13.1 K/9. His low hit rate of 6.1 H/9 is likely to regress, but with stuff that is unhittable at times, expect him to regress to a lower baseline hit rate than most pitchers. He earned his "A" in the first half and added some extra credit.

And now it's time to trade him in single-year fantasy leagues. Entering the season, the Marlins intented to limit Fern's innings, of which he has already compiled 94.2 against his cap. The cap is likely to be about 172.2 innings that Fernandez threw in his rookie season (his only full year in the bigs), meaning he has about 80 frames left. At his current rate of 6.31 innings/start, he would theoretically chew through those innings in a dozen starts, lasting until late August. I'm guessing the news cycle will start making this a story some time after the All-Star break, so if you can get full value on Fernandez between now and late July, go for it, because his trade utility is likely to take a hit as he continues to pile up the innings and focus shifts away from the All-Star Game or the trade deadline.

Grade: A

Wei-Yin Chen

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 86.1 4 5.00 1.29 72

This was supposed to be a perfect match between pitcher and ballpark, with Chen and his flyball tendencies moving out of homer-friendly Camden Yards and into the homer-suppressing venue of Marlins Park. Chen has brought nearly the exact same ratios with him from Baltimore, but it hasn't translated, with the southpaw posting a career-high ERA. Expect better run-prevention numbers in the second half, and though Ks aren't part of his product offering, he should be a decent source of clean innings.

Grade: D+

Adam Conley

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 87.2 4 3.90 1.36 85

Conley famously was pulled from a game in which he had a no-hitter going, but you can't blame the manager in this case given Conley's high pitch count at the time (116 pitches in the eighth inning), as well as what he means for the Marlins. He is throwing about a tick harder than last year and his changeup has been very effective, but a simple approach (fastballs early, secondaries late) could be exposed in short order, requiring Conley to make adjustments.

Grade: C+

Tom Koehler

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 84 6 4.07 1.49 71

He walked far too many batters in the first half, including five starts of five or more walks apiece, and there aren't enough strikeouts to balance out the equation. Koehler is fixin' to take a tumble, and I would stear clear.

Grade: D+

New York Mets

Matt Harvey

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 89 4 4.55 1.4 72

Harvey spent the first two months of the season causing headaches to fantasy managers. He has been a shell of the pitcher who tore through baseball last season, and though his recent string of effective starts is an encouraging sign, even at his best Harvey has been worth nowhere near the cost of acquisition. He has struck out more than five batters just five times in 16 turns this season, has bumped his walk rate up from less than five percent in each of his two longer seasons to this season's mark of 6.6 percent, and he's surrendering a ridiculous 10.4 H/9. There are signs of optimism, as he has rediscovered a fraction of the power, stability and athleticism that he had last year, but what is on display is still a far cry from Harvey at his peak. It could take awhile for Harvey to come back completely, and it's possible that he doesn't get full on track at all this season.

Grade: D

Noah Syndergaard

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 94 8 2.49 1.06 115

MLB was Thor's oyster for most of the season, following up his 2015 Rookie of the Year campaign with another step forward in his development. After leading all big-league starters in average fastball velocity last year, Syndergaard upped the ante this season, and he basically plowed through the majors the first two months. However, the elbow started barking the last couple weeks, and the Mets have confirmed he is dealing with bone chips in his throwing elbow. Given the known issue and the known connection between pitch-speed and injury risk, Syndergaard's case just went from "enjoy it while you can" to "in emergency break glass" fairly quickly. Assuming that the Mets don't want to risk their prized horse, figure that if he is on the mound then the risks are minimal, so all systems should be a go. But there's a distinct chance that either he misses time or pitches at a reduced level of effectiveness. The "A" grade on his report card reflects dominance to date, but he might have a difficult time living up to the same standard in the second half.

Grade: A-

Jacob DeGrom

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
13 81 3 2.67 1.12 77

DeGrom had a late start to the season and took five turns to round into shape, but he has settled into his delivery and seems to be getting stronger with every start. The strikeouts lagged in the early part of the season, never topping six Ks for any of his first six starts, but in his seven starts since, he has whiffed at least six batters, including a 10-K performance against the White Sox at the beginning of this month. That stretch also includes six consecutive quality starts, with a 2.25 composite ERA and 47 strikeouts against eight walks in 40.0 innings. Unfortunately, he has an 0-3 record to show for the good work over the six starts, and his puny W count not only harms his first-half value, but calls to question how long he will struggle in the category given the dilapidated state of the Mets' offense.

Grade: B-

Steven Matz

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
13 76.2 7 3.29 1.19 73

Similar to rotation-mate Thor, Matz is dealing with bone chips in his throwing elbow, and it is unknown how that will impact his performance or his workloads. His hype balloon was filled to the brink of popping in the preseason, and though the balloon burst in his first start of the season -- seven earned runs over 1.2 innings -- he then went on a fantasic 11-start streak with a 1.91 ERA and a strikeout-per-inning. The last start was another disaster, giving up six runs in 4.2 innings against the punchless Braves, and the follow-up news regarding the bone chips puts his performance this season -- as well as his fantasy trade value -- in limbo.

Grade: B

Bartolo Colon

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 88 6 2.86 1.17 58

Laugh all you want, but the big guy just keeps performing. He should at least be trustworthy at this point, and though the K rate is uninspiring and we continuously gets the feeling of waiting for the other shoe to drop, his ability to eat innings at a league-average rate of run prevention has been firmly established.

Grade: B

Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 91 5 4.45 1.28 99

Nola went from breakout candidate to bust in the span of about three starts. Complicating his situation is the Nola was probably underappreciated in spring drafts, was over-appreciated for much of May and now his case suffers from the perception that comes from fantasy managers who thought they had unearthed the next big thing, only to get burned. His peripheral stats were strong, including a 4.5 K/BB ratio and nearly 10 Ks per nine innings. I am optimistic that Nola can get back on track, but with four consecutive starts of less than four innings and 25 runs over 13.0 combined innings in that stretch, managers have no choice but to bench him and ride out the storm, hoping that patience is to be rewarded.

Grade: B-

Vincent Velasquez

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
13 66.2 6 3.38 1.25 80

The one massive start against the Padres has been having an undue influence over VV's total line this season. Consider that since the game in question (his second start of the season), Velasquez has a 4.35 ERA and 55:19 K:BB ratio in 51.2 innings. On top of the mirage in his stat line, Velasquez has never endured a serious workload, particularly not for a full season, and the Phillies are likely to limit his innings sooner than later with a shift to the bullpen or even a complete shutdown. The Padres game counts, so he gets a high grade based on the overall performance record and the low expectations that accompanied his draft stock, but those two conditions could very well be headed in different, opposite directions in the second half.

Grade: B+

Jerad Eickhoff

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 96 5 3.38 1.24 83

The young right-hander continues to be a better pitcher in the majors than he ever was in the minors, but with 147.0 combined innings across two big-league seasons, it's getting tougher to hand-wave away his impressive numbers: a 3.12 ERA and 132:37 K:BB ratio. He has also been relatively consistent, and there is little reason to expect that to change in the near future -- don't be surprised to see Eickhoff's name in sleeper lists during the next offseason.

Grade: B

Jeremy Hellickson

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 93.2 5 4.23 1.23 84

He's quietly having a solid season, with his best K rate since his rookie year while keeping walks to a minimum, but true to form when looking at his career, Helix still allows far too many homers and watches his ERA balloon as a result. He's not a bad stream option if you choose the right opponents for a spot start, but be aware that a single game can go south in a hurry.

Grade: C+

Washington Nationals

Max Scherzer

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 107.1 8 3.52 1.00 138

The insane number of homers that he gives up is head-scratching. He has allowed 20 homers in 16 starts, following a season in which the homer-rate was problematic at 1.1 HR/9 (it's 1.7 HR/9 this season). The rest of his game has remained intact, though, including a sub-1.00 WHIP (technically 0.997) and one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball. The frequent homers have tarnished his ERA, but Scherzer is doing well in the other categories that are under his control. I think that he could go an a ridiculous run if he starts to keep the homers in check, with upside that we saw in the first half of last season.

Grade: B

Stephen Strasburg

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
14 93 10 2.90 1.07 118

Stras was on a Cy-track before he was recently detailed by injury. He has the pristine 10-0 record, a career-high 11.4 K/9, a low 2.3 BB/9 walk rate that could go down further given his last two seasons of stinginess toward the free pass (1.8 BB/9 in 2014-15), and he is backed by a formidable offense that can keep adding Ws to his record. The back injury is less concerning than an arm problem for a pitcher, but Stras has dealt with multiple back issues now the last couple seasons, and the Nats will be cautious not to put him out there if his physical ability or his delivery are compromised. In my mind, the big concern as to his second half has to do with his workload and innings count, rather than his performance when on the mound, which I expect to be excellent.

Grade: A-

Tanner Roark

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
16 100.1 7 4.23 2.96 1.22 89

Strikeouts have long been something that Roark has failed to stockpile, but he has come alive this season with an 8.0 K/9 that is 1.7 K/9 higher than anything that he has pulled as a starter and 1.3 K/9 better than even his best bullpen work. Throw in the low rates of hits and homers allowed, and it's easier to forgive the sudden jump in his walk rate, as fantasy managers will take the results over his first 16 starts and would love to replicate them in the second.

Grade: B+

Joe Ross

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 90 7 3.30 1.22 77

Ross was a machine of 1s and 0s in April, cruised his way through May with a half-dozen starts that each teetered on the edge of "quality" (only three of those turns earned the QS though) and has endured a turbulent June that also includes three quality starts but with a lot more crooked numbers on the scoresheet. His pitch efficiency is impressive, though his K counts are pedestrian, and he has the consistency and the repertoire to be a reliable source of innings in the second half.

Grade: B-

Gio Gonzalez

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
15 85.2 3 4.73 1.37 88

Gonzalez was excellent for the first two months of the season, seemingly curing the erraticism that plagued him in 2015. He had a 1.86 ERA through his first eight starts, but the runs have been pouring across the plate in his seven turns since. In fact, he has given up at least five runs in five of his last seven outings, and if your squad has a bench then he should be sitting on it. His skills lie somewhere in the middle between the first-quarter surge and the second-quarter swoon, but it's tough to tell whether he'll make the necessary adjustments to make his third quarter a good one.

Grade: C-

Lucas Giolito

GS IP W ERA WHIP K
1 4 0 0.00 0.75 1

Giolito looked good in his MLB debut, but his ultimate fantasy value this season will likely be limited. His window of opportunity in the Washington rotation likely will close when Strasburg returns, especially considering the unexpected effectiveness of Roark, and young pitchers who are still coming back from Tommy John surgery are unlikely to be counted on for much of a workload. Giolito is best leveraged as a keeper commodity, so for those teams with a more immediate focus might want to parlay this MLB trial into a fantasy trade.

Grade: Incomplete

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Doug Thorburn
Doug started writing for RotoWire in April of 2015. His work can be found elsewhere at Baseball Prospectus and RotoGrinders, and as the co-host of the Baseballholics Anonymous podcast. Thorburn's expertise lies on the mound, where he tackles the world of pitching with an emphasis on mechanical evaluation. He spent five years at the National Pitching Association working under pitching coach Tom House, where Thorburn ran the hi-speed motion analysis program in addition to serving as an instructor. Thorburn and House wrote the 2009 book, “Arm Action, Arm Path, and the Perfect Pitch: Building a Million Dollar Arm,” using data from hi-speed motion analysis to tackle conventional wisdom in baseball. His DraftKings ID is “Raising Aces”.
Collette Calls: Walker in Memphis; Does He Have a Prayer There?
Collette Calls: Walker in Memphis; Does He Have a Prayer There?
Phillies-Padres, Rays-White Sox & More MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Friday, April 26
Phillies-Padres, Rays-White Sox & More MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Friday, April 26
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Friday, April 26
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Friday, April 26
College Baseball Picks for Friday, April 26
College Baseball Picks for Friday, April 26