This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.
A number of top-end pitchers have started the season slowly, and there are all sorts of reasons why that can happen - the beginning of the season is the most common time for pitchers to be off-track with mechanics, physical fitness or stuff. We would like to think that everyone starts Opening Day with a clean slate and from square one, but the reality is that every pitcher is at a different stage in his physical progression when the starting gun fires on the regular season.
Some pitchers have poor results despite a strong process, making them a perfect "buy" candidate in fantasy leagues, while others have legitimate struggles and might just need some time to figure things out. This time of year is flooded with stories of sell high and buy low in fantasyland, and as much as we would all like to convert Trevor Story into Carlos Correa or acquire Adam Wainwright for 50 cents on the dollar, it takes two to tango, and most fantasy managers will be very reluctant to offer such a discount in trade for a player that they valued highly just three weeks ago, nor are they likely to empty their pockets for a player who was off their radar on draft day.
The bigger questions facing fantasy managers at this early point in the season are whether to bench a star or whether to vault a relative unknown into the circle of trust. Let's take a look at both ends of the
A number of top-end pitchers have started the season slowly, and there are all sorts of reasons why that can happen - the beginning of the season is the most common time for pitchers to be off-track with mechanics, physical fitness or stuff. We would like to think that everyone starts Opening Day with a clean slate and from square one, but the reality is that every pitcher is at a different stage in his physical progression when the starting gun fires on the regular season.
Some pitchers have poor results despite a strong process, making them a perfect "buy" candidate in fantasy leagues, while others have legitimate struggles and might just need some time to figure things out. This time of year is flooded with stories of sell high and buy low in fantasyland, and as much as we would all like to convert Trevor Story into Carlos Correa or acquire Adam Wainwright for 50 cents on the dollar, it takes two to tango, and most fantasy managers will be very reluctant to offer such a discount in trade for a player that they valued highly just three weeks ago, nor are they likely to empty their pockets for a player who was off their radar on draft day.
The bigger questions facing fantasy managers at this early point in the season are whether to bench a star or whether to vault a relative unknown into the circle of trust. Let's take a look at both ends of the spectrum, starting at the top with struggling aces.
Ride it out or ride the pine?
The draft-day investments of these pitchers were significant, and dropping any of them after just a few starts is not an option. However, assuming a league with bench or reserves, the decision to sit an elite starter comes into play. These guys only make 32-34 starts per year, maximum, so it is no small sacrifice to forgo three percent of their draft-day value, particularly if the rest of your pitching rotation has failed to pick up the slack of a slumping ace.
Chris Archer
The record stands at 0-4, and though fantasy gamers can easily excuse his mediocre run prevention in his first outing of the year thanks to the dozen batters that he sent back to the dugout with Ks on their bats, the fact that he has posted three consecutive games of similar, disappointing pitching lines has shaken the foundation of manager confidence. He gets a partial pass for facing the destructive lineups of the AL East, with three of his four outings being against the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles.
Verdict: Ride the pine
This is a tentative verdict, in the sense that it won't take much to put him back in the starting lineup. The investment is too great in top-end starters and their fortunes can turn in a hurry, so a manager has to stay on his toes. That said, Archer's scheduling nightmare is not going to let up in the near future, as his next two starts are slated to be against the Orioles and the Blue Jays, two teams with top-notch offenses who have each already bludgeoned Archer once this season.
Matt Harvey
His pitching coach sees a mechanical flaw when Harvey is pitching from the stretch, leading to issues with pitch command and sapping him of some of his extension at release point. The fastball still peaks in the high-90s but has lost a little bit of zip since last season, on average. The combination of a shallower release point and slower pitch-speeds has given batters a longer look at the baseball on those pitches where his back-side collapses, typically from the stretch with runners on base, leading to disaster innings. On top of all of the scouting/coaching jargon, his stats show just nine strikeouts through 17.1 innings, turning his greatest asset into a weakness through three starts.
Verdict: Ride it out
Harvey hasn't been a total disaster this season, and each start he's thrown at least five innings and allowed 3-5 runs, but the complete lack of dominance has been a bit alarming. He could figure it out at any time, especially given that his pitching coach has seemingly isolated part of the problem. He faces the light-hitting Braves on Friday, so he could take a step in the right direction just by virtue of the opponent, but fantasy gamers will enjoy the results regardless. Now is also a good time to seek him out in trades, that is if his manager is willing to offer a discount from his draft-day value.
Corey Kluber
Kluber had a rough fantasy season last year despite striking out 246 batters with a 1.05 WHIP, due to a horrific 9-16 record (exhibit no. 9,324 that wins are ridiculous) and a 3.49 ERA that was "just" 22 percent better than league average. Basically, he was the same guy that won the Cy Young Award but got hosed by context, and the same problem has followed Kluber into this season. He was hit hard by the Red Sox in his first start of the year, which could happen to anybody, and had a decent-yet-disappointing turn in Tampa for his next start (3 ER over 7.2 innings, 6 K's) before the Mets lit Kluber up for six runs over six in his last outing. The right-hander now has a 6.16 ERA and has allowed 22 hits in 19.0 innings, with a modest (by his standards) 19:4 K:BB ratio in his first three starts.
Verdict: Ride it out
Maybe there's something here and I can't see it, because the reasons for disappointment have been piling up since Kluber took home the hardware. There were minor successes in the Mets game, as it was the first time that his strikeouts (eight) outnumbered his innings (6.0) and he allowed one walk, but the stuff is just too good for batters to be squaring it up so often. Another couple of starts like this and the fantasy pine will be calling, but his innings are potentially too precious to conservatively squander. The decision for his next start is even tougher than it seems, as he is scheduled to face the powerful Tigers in Detroit.
Hold 'em, fold 'em or trade 'em?
At the other end of the spectrum are the back-end starters, who were drafted as the no. 5-6 man on a fantasy staff or who were picked up off the wire following a big start. Pitchers who were fodder for the free agent list just a few weeks ago could be looking like key pieces to fantasy rotations today, and a gamer has to decide whether they are likely to continue their new-found performance level or fall on their face, returning to the dregs of the waiver wire.
Kenta Maeda
After signing one of the most bizarre, team-friendly contracts in recent memory, Maeda had dollars to earn and doubters to prove wrong as he entered the 2016 baseball season. The two-time winner of Japan's award for top pitcher in the league, his last one coming in 2015, Maeda was nonetheless an afterthought in many fantasy drafts. He may have entered the season as an unknown, but he had all of the indicators of a capable innings-eater who doesn't hurt the ratios, but he has surpassed even optimistic projections with a microscopic 0.47 ERA and 15 strikeouts through his first 19 innings of major-league play.
Verdict: Hold 'em
At the very least, Maeda becomes a very intriguing trade chip whose value could remain volatile over the next month. If he has a smooth transition into May, then his April numbers will contribute to a shiny pitching line just as fantasy trade season is heating up, so that managers who drafted Maeda as an insurance policy can parlay his success to fill a different need on the roster. The nature of hype surrounding a new player like Maeda means that he will likely go from underrated to overrated in the blink of an eye.
Vince Velasquez
A 16-strikeout, zero-walk shutout has a way of attracting attention from fantasy managers, and the fact that it came on the heels of six shutout frames (with nine K's) against the NL Champion Mets sent the fantasy world into a frenzy. That the big game came against the weak-hitting Padres in Petco Park seemed to do nothing to lower the helium levels in his hype balloon, and his overall numbers are phenomenal even following a rough outing in his third start of the season: a 0.93 ERA and 29:3 K:BB ratio in 19.1 innings.
Verdict: Trade 'em
The outing against the Mets may have been a harbinger of struggles to come for Velasquez. As effective as he can be, the two-pitch approach of throwing fastballs and breaking balls a combined 95 percent of the time makes it easier for opposing batters to play the chess match. Thus far this season, Velasquez has been on-target to the left side of the plate but struggled to hit targets on his arm side, further narrowing the options from the batter's point of view, such that they are looking for one of two pitches and concentrate on the inner half of the plate. He's a new pitcher to the National League, so the Mets were getting their first look at Velasquez when he faced them in his first start; the second time around, they knew what he threw and how he approached at-bats, and adjusted accordingly. Maybe this was a blip on the radar, but I could see Velasquez struggling on his second time through the schedule, making it tougher on him as the season wears on and advance scouts have Velasquez in their crosshairs. The onus is on Velasquez to make adjustments as the league catches on to his particular bag of tricks, but I would rather parlay his recent success into an upgrade elsewhere on the roster than have to endure his inevitable growing pains.
