Lance Carter

Carter regressed last year after a couple of good seasons, including a period when he was a replacement-level closer. Lately his performance hasn't risen to that level, so he likely won't get the opportunity to close again.

Carter's ERA improved in 2004, but his walk and strikeout rates actually got worse. Discounting intentional walks, his K/BB ratio went from 47/13 in 2003 to 36/21 last season. He's still a good short reliever, but Tampa Bay had the right idea when they replaced him at closer with Danys Baez.

Going into 2003 we were certain that no Devil Ray would crack 20 saves, but with the team improving just a little on offense and sticking with the same closer for most of the season, Carter wound up with 26 saves, tied for seventh in the AL. (And yet, he didn't get a single ROY vote. Thanks, Rocco.) During the offseason, the Rays signed Danys Baez, which likely moves Carter to eighth-inning duties. If that doesn't happen, Carter will be a decent closer play in AL leagues. If he pitches as well in 2004 as he did in 2003, his ERA will very likely improve significantly. In addition to that not-shabby 1.15 WHIP (1.08 if you pull out six intentional walks), the Bill James Handbook points out that Carter's component ERA was 3.38 last year -- unmasking that "real" ERA of 4.33 as hideously unlucky. He's a good one.

Carter will be part of the crowd competing for the Devil Rays' closer job, or committee, in 2003. After being seemingly washed up (after all, once the Royals release you, where do you go?), he pitched great down the stretch for Triple-A Durham as they won the IL title (2.80 ERA in 132 innings; 18 starts, 13 relief appearances), then got two wins and two saves in eight September relief outings for the Devil Rays. Carter made a strong bid for the Rays' closer job in the spring, but it appears he'll be the team's top set-up man instead.