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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Chappell has 20 events left on a major medical extension to accrue only 257 FedEx points - very doable, if healthy. He played only 13 events last season and made seven cuts, with one top-25. The key for Chappell is his health as when healthy, he's a top-50 player on the PGA Tour.
Chappell played three events before back surgery ended his 2018-19 season. He participated in the Korn Ferry playoffs to earn a 2019-20 card. If he doesn't make it there, Chappell will surely get a major medical extension, though the Tour has not announced them for 2019-20 as yet. As a former champion, Chappell also has Past Champions status in his back pocket, but that's a long way away.
Chappell joined the PGA Tour in 2012 and he's been solidly inside the top-125 ever since. In his first few years, Chappell showed some promise, but he never quite found his top gear. That changed in 2016 when he finished runner-up four times on his way to over $4.5 million in earnings. For an encore in 2017, he picked-up his firs victory on the PGA Tour and topped $3 million in earnings. Last year however, he fell back to his pre-2016 levels of production. The culprit last season was his short game. Chappell has never been a great putter, even during the 2016 and 2017 seasons, he wasn't lights-out with the putter, but he was good to really good everywhere else, including strokes-gained around the green. Last season not only was his putting bad, but he ranked 172nd in strokes-gained around the green. A small improvement in that area of his game would show great gains in his earnings this season. It's an issue that he should be able to address this off season.
Chappell's career arc has been a strange one as he spent his first five seasons on the PGA Tour securing his card with relative ease, but rarely showing any signs of huge potential. That changed during the 2015-16 season when he earned more than $4.5 million. The odd thing about that season is that he didn't win. Chappell did finish runner-up four times though. In another strange twist, he finally picked up his first win last season, but his earnings fell way off from the previous season. Chappell is certainly capable of significantly improving upon his number from this past season as he did it, just a season prior, but he's exactly a safe pick at this price.
How exactly does a guy make over $4.5 million without winning once? Easy, just find four runner-ups throughout the season like Chappell did last season. Chappell's high-point came at the TOUR Championship, where he lost in a playoff to Rory McIlroy and that's a great sign for his future. Not only did he make it to the playoff, but he did it against the best players in the world on a very tough track. The future is bright for Chappell, but as is often the case with young guys who make over $4 million in one season, he's simply not a good salary cap option this season. In draft leagues he'll go very late in the first round or early in the 2nd-round.
Chappell was the definition of a grinder during the 2014 season. 28 starts, 22 cuts made, nine top-25s, but only one top-10. It's kind of amazing that a guy can earn over $1.3 million and finish inside the top-100 on the money list with only one top-10. Chappell's career hasn't looked much like his 2014 season though. In 2013 he had three top-10s and a runner-up finish at the Memorial. Chappell shouldn't have a hard time improving on his 2014 earnings number, but a significant improvement might be asking too much. In draft leagues Chappell should go around the 9th round.
Chappell started slowly in 2013 missing more cuts than he made through the end of April, but a runner-up finish at the Memorial in June kick-started his season. After that finish, Chappell missed only one cut the rest of the season and he picked up where he left off last season with three made cuts in three starts during the 2013-2014 season. Chappell has the potential to take a step up this year, but he's a little pricey at this spot. In draft leagues he should go in the 50-60 range.
Chappell posted just one top-10 last year but picked the right spot to do it - at the U.S. Open. That check of more than $160K was by far his largest of the season and helped him just creep into the top 125. After a strong rookie season in 2011, Chappell's 2012 was a disappointment as his earnings were cut in half. He does have some upside, though, as he proved in 2011 and at his price, he's not a bad gamble. In draft leagues, Chappell should go in the 10th round or later.
The main goal for any PGA Tour rookie is earning his card for the following year. Sure, certain players might have loftier goals, but in the end, the most important thing is ensuring one's continued play on the PGA Tour. Chappell wasted little time in accomplishing his goal last season as he earned a runner-up finish at the Valero Texas Open in April, which netted him more than $500K. From there he needed only another Top-10 or two to get safely inside the Top-125. Chappell, though, had other things in mind. Two months after his showing in Texas, he tied for third-place at the U.S. Open. To add icing to the cake, he posted another third-place finish in his final event of the season. Chappell appears headed in the right direction, and his finish at the U.S. Open last year earned him a spot in this year's field, something that not many sophomores get.
Chappell was one of the more consistent players on the Nationwide Tour last season. In addition to one victory, he also earned a runner-up, a third-place finish and seven top-10s in 24 starts. In all, 10 top-25s in 24 starts. That kind of consistency will serve him well on the PGA TOUR this year.
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WD's with back injury
Playing AT&T Byron Nelson
Withdraws with back injury
Third in SG: Putting at Sanderson Farms
Chappell closed with a two-under 70 on Sunday at the Sanderson Farms Championship to finish 10-under and tied for 23rd.
T54 at the Travelers
Chappell carded a one-under 69 on Sunday at the Travelers Championship to finish six-under and tied for 54th.