This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
CWS Best Bets Today: LSU vs Arkansas
That wasn't a bad way to kick off the College World Series. Two nail-biters between Arizona-Coastal Carolina and Oregon State-Louisville was a great appetizer to the kind of mayhem we're going to see for the next couple of weeks. Both Coastal and Oregon State were my primary bets to advance to the 1-0 game, and since both came through, we're sitting in a good spot with some futures in hand.
Although that sets up for an awesome Sunday night contest where Coastal is a decent favorite, we have to first lock in on the Saturday card. The right side of the bracket features a matchup between two powerhouses, as well as a spot with two unlikely Omaha entries. Let's lock in for the slate.
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Betting Strategies for the College World Series: LSU vs Arkansas
LSU Tigers (-106)
Arkansas Razorbacks (-120)
Total: 9.5
It felt like destiny that these two had to square up in Omaha. Both were favorites to win the whole thing for most of the season, and once the draw came out a lot of people had this circled for a potential duel. The Tigers took a tight series during the regular season, but this is truly a coinflip matchup.
There was speculation on which arm would go for LSU in this pivotal Game 1. Kade Anderson is the ace of this staff, but Arkansas has been better against southpaws this year than righties. That gave some thought that his running mate, Anthony Eyanson, may get the nod. However, the Tigers put it to rest and will opt for their ace. To be honest, you can't really go wrong when you have two No. 1 starters.
Earlier in the year, Anderson went 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K's against this Hogs lineup in a narrow 5-4 victory. The draft-eligible sophomore vaulted himself from a widely unknown prospect as a freshman to a superstar in his first full season as a weekend guy. The 163 K/28 BB ratio in 103 IP is tops in the nation in 2025, and a big reason why he has a great shot to go top five in this summer's draft.
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Anderson reminds me of the next Sugar Shane McClanahan with an elite four-pitch mix, headlined with a devastating high 90's heater from the left side. His ability to command the zone at such a high level has propelled him to stardom. The bugaboo for him has been the 15 homers allowed, contributing to a misleading 3.58 ERA. Facing a Hogs lineup that ranks as one of the nation's elite, especially in homers (124), keeping the ball in the yard will be paramount.
With seven players in double-figure homers, Arkansas has a lineup top-to-bottom that offers no breaks to an opposing pitcher. The M.O. for these Hogs is crushing the lower-third of the zone with most of their bats having big sweeping upper-cut swings. The ballpark in Omaha offers a much tougher task at putting the ball over the fence, though it can certainly be done. Anderson's objective will be shutting down the top of the order where Charles Davalan (.355 avg/14 HR) and Golden Spikes Finalist Wehiwa Aloy (.348 avg/20 HR) lurk like sharks in the water. If he can manage that, then he should be in a good position to hold down a potent Razorback's offense.
Anderson's counterpart, Zach Root, went for 6 IP, 2 ER in that outing against LSU earlier in the year. Root's last three starts have seemingly marked a turn in his trajectory, allowing just two earned runs in 17 IP. The ECU transfer has had a strong season overall with his 3.59 ERA and 119 K/31 BB ratio in 92.2 IP. He's certainly had his share of pedestrian outings though. Against an LSU offense, Root will be saddled with the daunting task of trying to shut down another loaded lineup.
Sure, it's not the LSU offense of 2023, but it's still been pretty good. The .299 average and 101 homers is nothing to sneeze at, but the bigger thing is they've been on fire lately, averaging 10 runs per game in the tournament. Granted it was against West Virginia, Dallas Baptist, and Little Rock, but it's still impressive.
The main point of emphasis in this lineup for Root to contend with starts with All-Star freshman Derek Curiel (.347 avg/1.005 OPS/7 HR), Jared Jones (.328 avg/1.045 OPS/20 HR) and red-hot Ethan Frey (.340 avg/1.096 OPS/13 HR). This is an offense that will strikeout though, as four of their main starters have punched out over 40 times with two others notching 30+ K's. Root's best chance is to do what's been working, which is changing the eye levels. He likes to work the top of the zone with an eye candy heater in the mid 90's and then drop in the big breaker below the bottom of the zone.
The bullpens are fairly even as well since both have more than a handful of trusted arms should things go sideways with their starters. Ultimately, I think this coin-flip game comes down to either who makes the big mistake or the big play. The LSU postseason pedigree and experience in this spot is one of the edges in my opinion, not to mention I believe they have the better starter.
It should shape up as an all-time classic College World Series showdown, one where I like my preseason winner in LSU to emerge victorious. Keep in mind, I think both have a legitimate chance to rally out of the loser's bracket, so it's likely we will get this matchup later on in the week with even more on the line. With Arkansas gaining some steam on the line, I think the wrong team is favored here.
Pick: LSU ML -106 (at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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