Series to Watch: Padres vs. Cubs

Welcome to the second edition of Series to Watch, a guide to the ballgames this weekend which hold the most fantasy intrigue. Last weekend's pick could not have turned out much better, as Toronto and Baltimore churned out 42 runs and 59 hits in just three games. A total of 10 homers were added to the stat sheet, in addition to 15 doubles and three steals between the two ballclubs. To top it off, Ubaldo Jimenez had his best start in 18 months. We can't ask for much more than that.

Or can we? How about the MLB debut of the hottest prospect in all the land? How about a clash of two teams whose fortunes have changed drastically since the last pitch of 2014 and the first pitch of 2015? The Padres and the Cubs have transmogrified into contenders over the course of an offseason, and though one of these teams is built for the long-haul while the other is ready to win now, both rosters are stacked with players that shine on the fantasy stage.

v.

Game 1, April 17, 2:20pm ET: James Shields vs. Jason Hammel

A lot of Haterade was thrown on James Shields after he fell short in the big games last October, but few pitchers have been as consistent over the past four years as the walk-reducing right-hander. He has pitched at least 200 innings in each of the last eight seasons, and seven times has cracked 215 frames while maintaining an above-average ERA. Signed late in the offseason for a surprisingly reasonable four-year deal, Shields has enjoyed a seamless transition to the National League, with a 2.03 ERA and 15 Ks against three walks in 13 innings.

Hammel achieved the impossible in his first start of the season, holding the Rockies' offense at bay for a quality start in the thin air of Denver. The distinctions of a quality start are hardly impressive by today's standards (minimum six innings pitched, maximum three earned runs), and Hammel barely qualified, but the fact that his performance occurred at Coors Field underscores the quality of that start. He has never pitched better than he did during the first half of last season in Chicago (prior to getting traded to Oakland), and his history with the Cubs and pitching coach Chris Bosio bodes well for his return performance to the Windy City.

Game 2, April 18, 2:20pm ET: Tyson Ross vs. Kyle Hendricks

Ross has become more slider-dependent over the past few years, increasing the pitch frequency from 25.7 percent in 2012 to 32.7 percent in 2013 to an astounding 41.1 percent last season (stats via Brooks Baseball). Excess slider usage brings potential injury concerns, so the Padres had to be alarmed last September when Ross came down with a strained forearm, near his elbow (flexor mass if you want to get fancy). The scare has done little to deter his usage pattern this season, with a 35.1 percent rate through two starts, and the incentive might be too tempting given that his performance has improved over the years as he has gone more slider-heavy in his repertoire.

Hendricks is a control artist who relies heavily on his defense in lieu of generating strikeouts and whose stat line will live and die by the vagaries of balls in play. His career walk rate in the minor leagues was a jaw-dropping 4.5 percent, which worked out to 1.6 BB/9 across 452.3 innings. The lack of Ks might overshadow the rest of his profile, but this is a pitcher who has posted a career ERA of 2.69 in the minors and ridden his grounder-inducing sinker to 0.4 HR/9, numbers that he essentially matched in his first 80-inning tour in the majors. The challenge on Saturday will be to keep the Padres' mashers from clearing the ivy.

Game 3, April 19, 2:20pm ET: Andrew Cashner vs. Jon Lester

This is the premier matchup, saving the best for last, and a baseballholic can't help but pull for these teams to split the first two games to set up the rubber match in Game 3.

Cashner is armed with a wicked two-seam fastball that he throws in the upper-90s with arm-side run that can be unfair on his best days. Under the hood, he has been developing the finer points of his craft to harness mechanics that are both consistent and efficient, allowing him to address the biggest weakness that once plagued his game: pitch command. He could be ready to ascend to the next level, but Adrian Gonzalez saw to it personally that Cashner's launch would be delayed by knocking three home runs in three at bats. The right-hander struck out nine batters against zero walks in his second outing of the season, but results on contact were still an issue. He could be 4-to-5 starts from really exploding, but there's a non-zero chance that I'm saying the same thing about Cashner three years from now.

Lester is coming off a rough outing in what was setup to be a cakewalk against Cincinnati. The Reds are particularly vulnerable to southpaws due to the power outage that occurs to Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Their best weapon against lefties – Devin Mesoraco – was out of the lineup with an injury, as was leadoff juggernaut Billy Hamilton. Lester had the deck stacked, and yet Cincy's B squad pounded out 10 hits and scored six earned runs. Lester will have his work cut out for him Sunday, as the Pads are structurally designed to murder left-handers; they imported four power bats in the off-season, each of whom bats right-handed, and they will put Lester to the test in his third start at his new home.

San Diego
Justin Upton – In his career, Upton has enjoyed a 120-point edge in OPS when facing left-handers, as well as an isolated power that goes up 57 points with the platoon advantage. He's off to another quick start at the plate, but Upton will have to make peace with the billy goat before he can pad his stats: Upton has worse career numbers at Wrigley Field (.169/.266/.253 in 94 PA) than any other ballpark (minimum 25 PA). Sunday's game might his best opportunity – small sample caveats and all, but Upton is 5-for-7 with two homers lifetime against Lester.

Matt Kemp – Kemp's platoon splits are even more exaggerated than Upton's, as the former Dodger rakes lefties at a pace of .333/.394/.558 in his career. He's never faced Lester in a game that counted, but he's already in good with the goat (.323/.375/.613 line in 104 PA at Wrigley Field), so he has that going for him … which is nice.

Wil Myers – The power that once personified Myers' profile has gone on hiatus, and we wait with bated breath for a return. The sample is limited, but he actually has a reverse platoon split so far in his career, with 15 of his 19 career homers coming against right-handed pitchers (and one of the lefties was Lester), so it might carve out the opportunity for Myers to hit his first homer of 2015.

Derek Norris – Manager Bud Black has been making regular use of Norris, getting him ample time behind the plate with starts in nine of 10 games so far this season. Norris has been used to frame the big bats of Kemp and Upton, batting either second or fifth. He has one of the largest splits you'll see as a right-handed batter, with a career OPS split that favors southpaws by 157 points and a career line of just .207/.301/.311 versus right-handers. The song remains the same this year: 33 of his 39 plate appearances are against right-handers, yet four of his 10 hits have come in the six at-bats against lefties.

Chicago
Kris Bryant – Yeah, he has zero MLB plate appearances and he still gets top billing on this list – not so much because I think that he's going to be their best player right away, but because he is the definition of fantasy intrigue. All eyes will be on him, and there is more interest in his MLB landing than we have seen from a prospect's debut since Bryce Harper. He went ahead and hit three homers as he got comfortable in Iowa for seven games, swiping a couple of bags along the way. There's not much he could do that would surprise me, short of falling on his face. What's the over/under for the percentage of managers that roster Bryant for DFS on Friday? I'll set the line at 33 percent.

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo is the grizzled veteran of this young group, entering his theoretical prime at 25 years old and coming off of his first 30-homer campaign. He has developed into an on-base machine, leading by example to provide the ideal anchor to keep the kids grounded. He has limited experience against the three pitchers who will start for San Diego this weekend, but the jury's still out on which side is at the bigger disadvantage: Rizzo or the Padres' staff.

Jorge Soler – Soler made a mockery of the minors last season, slugging .700 between an injury and his promotion, upon which he exploded onto the scene with three homers and four doubles in his first five games. He cooled down the stretch, but the Rookie of the Year candidate has started the 2015 season with a bang, including two homers and a triple through his first eight games. Warm weather might be more conducive to offense, but I have to admit to hoping for a cold afternoon on one of the next three days in Chicago, if only to see Soler rock the Storm Shadow mask one more time.

Starlin Castro – While the baseball-consuming public is trying to figure out the best return in a potential trade for Castro (under the assumption that there are just too many shortstops in the pipeline), Theo and Co. have been busy rearranging the deck chairs to keep everyone in-house. That's the beauty of the defensive spectrum – players can slide down relatively easily, but sliding up is exponentially more difficult.