This article is part of our Painting the Black series.
PAINTING THE BLACK: A Way Too Early Look at 2015's Top Fantasy Players
Welcome to the offseason fantasy baseball GMs! Whether you took home the title as your league's best squad, fell just short of the podium, or altogether laid an egg in the standings, it's never too early to take a look ahead to the impact players for next season. Ok, maybe it is juuuust a little bit.
If the 2014 season is any indicator to some of the unexplainable fantasy happenings (Jose Altuve leading the league in BA, Nelson Cruz leading the league in HRs, Clayton Kershaw leading... just kidding), then prepare for more surprises ahead in the 2015 campaign.
I caution all of you to take these initial rankings and thoughts with a grain of salt. To make the distinctions slightly easier, I separated my selections into 3 categories: Safe Bets, 50/50s, & Rolling the Dice. SO much will happen over this offseason and into spring training, but it doesn't hurt to take stock in a few players that may just be off your radar right now who can give you an advantage for next season. These aren't projected leaders for specific categories; they're anywhere from established All-Star or "budding superstar" to more of the type that could fall in fantasy drafts.
POSITION PLAYERS:
Safe Bets:
MICHAEL BRANTLEY (OF, Cleveland Indians)
'14 Projections: .283, 8 HR, 64 RBI, 64 R, 15 SB
'14 Actual Stats: .327, 20 HR, 97 RBI, 94 R, 23 SB
The unquestioned offensive MVP of the Tribe in 2014, Brantley made the All-Star team for the 1st time in his young career as well as taking over the #3 spot in the Indians order when Jason Kipnis went on the DL with an oblique injury. The staying power for Brantley is his power to all fields, speed on the base paths, and incredible plate discipline (52 BB/56 SO in '14). He could seriously challenge for a batting title the next few years, especially if the Indians get some lineup protection other than Carlos Santana behind him.
ANTHONY RIZZO (INF, Chicago Cubs)
'14 Projections: .260, 27 HR, 92 RBI, 77 R, 5 SB
'14 Actual Stats: .286, 32 HR, 78 RBI, 89 R, 5 SB
In 2014, Rizzo returned to the power hitter he came highly touted as, doing so with nearly nobody consistently behind him to provide any protection. The 25-year-old first baseman possesses the best opposite field power in the National League besides Adrian Gonzalez while showing an improved eye in the batter's box (21 BB/46 SO in 128 AB in '13; 27 BB/62 SO in 337 AB in '14). The thought of Rizzo getting sandwiched between the likes of Javy Baez, Starlin Castro and minor league power machine Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler, possibly later in the season, is a fantasy GM's dream come true.
50/50s:
JAVY BAEZ (INF, Chicago Cubs)
'14 Projections: .268, 8 HR, 30 RBI, 27 R, 6 SB
'14 Actual Stats: .169, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 25 R, 5 SB
Having been a teammate of Baez in spring training during 2013, I can tell you first hand you're getting a high risk/high reward swing from the 21-year-old. That being said, when this extremely talented rookie makes contact, he's got as good a chance as any elite power hitter in the league of hitting the ball out of the ballpark. From a fantasy GM's perspective, he'll be an attractive option at 2nd base with the lack of big pop guys available. You're going to deal with your fair share of strikeouts (95 SO in 229 PA), but he's going to learn how to be a major league hitter and get every chance to succeed on the North Side.
ADAM EATON (OF, Chicago White Sox)
'14 Projections: .269, 6 HR, 37 RBI, 85 R, 19 SB
'14 Actual Stats: .300, 1 HR, 35 RBI, 76 R, 15 SB
Another former teammate of mine from our days in the Diamondbacks organization in 2012, Eaton is going to be the South Siders leadoff man for years to come. Injuries are the only thing holding him back from being a perennial star in MLB. He's got surprising power for a guy listed at 5'8", but his motor drives him to play Pete Rose-esque on every play. That being said, fantasy GMs take the danger with the return when drafting Eaton. He's a great target in late rounds.
Rolling the Dice:
JOSH HARRISON (INF, Pittsburgh Pirates)
'14 Projections: .244, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 19 R, 3 SB
'14 Actual Stats: .315, 13 HR, 52 RBI, 77 R, 18 SB
A jack-of-all-trades "super utility" player, Harrison got his real chance when Pedro Alvarez's throwing woes simply took him out of the lineup. For a guy in Harrison that never hit more than 3 HR or 16 RBI during a season, it's certainly an overachieving campaign in my book. I'd expect over the offseason that Alvarez gets his act together and wins his 3rd base job back, leaving Harrison back in a utility role for the Buccos in 2015.
EVAN LONGORIA (INF, Tampa Bay Rays)
'14 Projections: .282, 35 HR, 99 RBI, 90 R, 2 SB
'14 Actual Stats: .253, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 83 R, 5 SB
Anything and everything that could go wrong with the Rays offense in 2014 seemingly did. Smack in the middle of a lackluster offensive attack was Longoria, hitting well under his career average of .271 and matching his 2nd lowest HR total since 2010. There's no end in sight for how bad Tampa's lineup could get for 2015, but make no mistake, there won't be much to protect Longoria. Buyer beware.
STARTING PITCHERS:
Safe Bets:
Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox)
'14 Projections: 13-12, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 235 K
'14 Actual Stats: 12-4, 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 208 K
He won't get a well-deserved amount of votes in the AL Cy Young race, but Chris Sale was about as valuable a starting pitcher in the major leagues as anyone in 2014. Expect that trend to continue into 2015. In only 26 starts, Sale crushed his competition giving up only 129 hits in 174 IP, over a 5-1 K/BB ratio, and posting a career best 2.17 ERA as a starting pitcher. In an AL Central that shudders at the mere sight of him, Sale will be heavily in the Cy Young discussion for '15.
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (Washington Nationals)
'14 Projections: 16-8, 3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 155 K
'14 Actual Stats: 14-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 182 K
The no-hitter on the final day of the 2014 season capped an incredible year for the power right-hander. Zimmermann made 32 starts for his 3rd consecutive season, missing back-to-back 200+ IP years by a single out. The telling statistics are a vast improvement in K/BB ratio (4.025-1 in '13, 6.3-1 in '14) and a potent offensive attack in support. Anticipate him to challenge for 20 wins in 2015 and eclipse both the 200 IP & 200 K mark.
50/50s:
JUSTIN VERLANDER (Detroit Tigers)
'14 Projections: 17-9, 3.03 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 228 K
'14 Actual Stats: 15-12, 4.54 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 159 K
Oh boy. Was there any other Ace as heavily scrutinized throughout the 2014 season as Verlander? Did any Ace perform better under pressure (besides MadBum) in the 2nd half than Verlander to put their team in the playoffs? Early season velocity issues, as well as tinkering with mechanics and a loss of confidence all added up to Verlander's worst statistical campaign of his career. Nonetheless, last season's best Jekyll-and-Hyde imitation certainly came from the former MVP and allowed Detroit to reach the postseason on the last day of the year. What comes in 2015? Arguably the leading question-mark in all of baseball: which Verlander will we get?
MADISON BUMGARNER (San Francisco Giants)
'14 Projections: 15-10, 3.04 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 201 K
'14 Actual Stats: 18-10, 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 219 K
The legend of "MadBum" will long live in Giants lore for decades. A historic MVP performance on the heels of vaulting to the Ace of a San Francisco staff devoid of incumbent Matt Cain and fallen-from-grace Tim Lincecum. History shows us, however, that following this type of magical season, starting pitchers tend to fall a bit back to earth. A career high in IP for a season and losing over a month of offseason recovery & training, expect MadBum to succumb to some trouble in the 2015 season.
Rolling the Dice:
WADE MILEY (Arizona Diamondbacks)
'14 Projections: 12-10, 3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 143 K
'14 Actual Stats: 8-12, 4.34 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 183 K
Thrust into the Opening Day role after the season-ending injury to Patrick Corbin, Miley did his best to try and right a Diamondbacks ship that was lost from the start. The 27-year-old lefty found some tough sledding, facing the likes of a vaunted Dodgers offense, veteran Giants team and upstart Padres squad. Issues remain with high walk totals (66 in '13, 75 in '14), but an improvement in his K totals (147 in '13, 183 in '14) helped keep him afloat. A tough 2015 awaits Arizona and their pitching staff - the NL West isn't getting any easier.
HIROKI KURODA (New York Yankees)
'14 Projections: 14-11, 3.41 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 144 K
'14 Actual Stats: 11-9, 3.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 146 K
Hard to imagine that Kuroda ended up being the go-to guy in the Yankees rotation that began with incumbent Ace CC Sabathia, phenom Masahiro Tanaka, and a bevy of young fireballers in Michael Pineda & Ivan Nova. The one thing you can bank on with Kuroda: he's made at least 31 starts, thrown 199+ IP, and won double digit games for 5 consecutive years. What you can't bank on: Kuroda turns 40 in 2015. Is father time finally going to have his way with the Japanese righty?
CLOSING PITCHERS:
Safe Bets:
CODY ALLEN (Cleveland Indians)
'14 Projections: 4-2, 2.61 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 73 K, 8 Saves
'14 Actual Stats: 6-4, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 91 K, 24 Saves
Allen took over for John Axford early in the 2014 season and literally put a stranglehold on the closing position for the Indians the rest of the way. Armed with high 90's heat and a better feel for when to throw his slider, I like his chances to go a full year without many hiccups. In 69.2 IP, he punched out 91, walked only 26 and converted 24 of 28 Save opportunities. Judging by his 2013 & '14 campaigns, there's no reason to believe that those numbers won't follow suit for 2015, especially with a full season as the Tribe stopper.
MARK MELANCON (Pittsburgh Pirates)
'14 Projections: 3-2, 2.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 60 K, 11 Saves
'14 Actual Stats: 3-5, 1.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 71 K, 33 Saves
Taking over for Jason Grilli, Melancon became the much-needed, no-heart-attacks-in-the-9th stopper the Pirates have longed for. A unique delivery and devastating offspeed stuff compliment his attacking demeanor and coolness under pressure - all vital qualities for becoming a tenured closer in the big leagues. His numbers in 2013 and '14 are nearly identical and the most impressive stat is having allowed only 3 HRs in his last 144 games. Melancon is a must-draft high up in any league.
50/50s:
HECTOR RONDON (Chicago Cubs)
'14 Projections: N/A
'14 Actual Stats: 4-4, 2.42 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 63 K, 29 Saves
Rondon, finally healthy off of elbow surgery, and firmly entrenched in the Cubs bullpen, got his closing chance after failed attempts from Jose Veras, Pedro Strop and a host of other candidates. Electric stuff, both from his mid-to-high 90's heater, sweeping slurve, and shutdown split, Rondon gives new manager Joe Maddon a breath of fresh air in the back of the Chicago pen. The young righty actually improved his K/BB ratio in 10 more IP from '13 to '14 (44 SO/25 BB to 63 SO/15 BB), but there's always worry of two things: the injury bug and pitching at Wrigley Field. Proceed with caution as Rondon is certainly a high risk/high reward back-end arm.
HUSTON STREET (Anaheim Angels)
'14 Projections: 2-4, 3.53 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 48 K, 25 Saves
'14 Actual Stats: 2-2, 1.37 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57 K, 41 Saves
Acquired via trade from San Diego, Street solidified an Angels bullpen that saw the crumbling and eventual trade of incumbent Ernesto Frieri. Allowing setup man Joe Smith to stay in his 8th inning role, Street helped lead the Halos to their best bullpen rank in years. There's no question that Street is a top-end closer, both in reality and fantasy. But there are seemingly always injury issues with him every season. Street has appeared in 60+ games only 5 times in 10 seasons, 3 of those years not even reaching 50 games. Closers are fickle in the big leagues, so handcuffing Street with Smith is a must if you draft Huston.
Rolling the Dice:
FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ (Milwaukee Brewers)
'14 Projections: 3-3, 3.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 64 K, 15 Saves
'14 Actual Stats: 5-5, 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 73 K, 44 Saves
It's no secret, K-Rod pitched all of 2014 with an immense chip on his shoulder. It's no secret either that it's the first "quality" season he's pitched as a closer since setting the Major League record for saves (62) in a season with the Angels in 2008. A high-effort delivery doesn't help things, especially with a sharp downturn in velocity, relying heavily on his breaking ball more than ever. All these add up to a recipe for disaster if he gets off to a bad start in 2015.
KOJI UEHARA (Boston Red Sox)
'14 Projections: 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 79 K, 35 Saves
'14 Actual Stats: 6-5, 2.52 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 80 K, 26 Saves
I'm sure many of you are scratching your head thinking, "how is this guy a roll the dice candidate for 2015?" One reason - age. Fourty-year-old closers not named Rivera or Hoffman rarely have sustained success through an entire season. Throw that in with Uehara's injury history and you have your red flags to consider when drafting. The numbers still remain video-game-esque (17 BB in 137 games from '13 to '14, 181 K's in same span). As a former reliever, I just guard against large workloads for "old" relievers, especially closers in high-pressure situations night in and night out.
