This article is part of our Series to Watch series.
Many wrote off the Royals as a fluke last season, a team that just got hot at the right time, but that heat has carried over the off-season and right into 2015. Following yesterday's victory in game one of the intradivision series with the Tigers, Kansas City's 15-7 record is now tied for the best mark in the American League (with the Astros, of all teams), while the Tigers are a half-step behind with a 15-8 record. The Royals also sport the best run differential in MLB at plus-45, including the second-most runs scored (Toronto) and the second-highest rate of runs per game (Baltimore) in all of baseball.
The Royals exemplify how the old school approach of making contact can pay dividends in the modern era of take-and-rake. KC batters had by far the fewest strikeouts as a team last season and they're at it again in 2015 with an MLB-low 131 K's. They top it off with a team batting average of .306, easily tops in the majors, as the top six hitters in the everyday lineup sport averages north of .300. The Tigers are more power hungry, ranking third in baseball with a .450 slugging percentage entering the series, and that's with Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler still sitting on zero in the home run column. The Tigers have been the pride of the AL Central for the last four seasons, but some have speculated that the end is nigh, and the reigning AL champions have quickly stated
Many wrote off the Royals as a fluke last season, a team that just got hot at the right time, but that heat has carried over the off-season and right into 2015. Following yesterday's victory in game one of the intradivision series with the Tigers, Kansas City's 15-7 record is now tied for the best mark in the American League (with the Astros, of all teams), while the Tigers are a half-step behind with a 15-8 record. The Royals also sport the best run differential in MLB at plus-45, including the second-most runs scored (Toronto) and the second-highest rate of runs per game (Baltimore) in all of baseball.
The Royals exemplify how the old school approach of making contact can pay dividends in the modern era of take-and-rake. KC batters had by far the fewest strikeouts as a team last season and they're at it again in 2015 with an MLB-low 131 K's. They top it off with a team batting average of .306, easily tops in the majors, as the top six hitters in the everyday lineup sport averages north of .300. The Tigers are more power hungry, ranking third in baseball with a .450 slugging percentage entering the series, and that's with Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler still sitting on zero in the home run column. The Tigers have been the pride of the AL Central for the last four seasons, but some have speculated that the end is nigh, and the reigning AL champions have quickly stated their intention to dethrone Detroit.
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Game 1, April 30, 7:10pm CDT: Alfredo Simon vs. Danny Duffy
The first game of the series was yesterday, and the Royals proved that they could hang with the big bats of Detroit by winning the opener handily, 8-1, behind Danny Duffy. The young lefty was treading through dangerous waters, with southpaw slayers like Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, and Ian Kinsler loaded into the meaty part of the lineup. Duffy nearly escaped unscathed, blanking the Tigers for seven innings before Jose Iglesias led off the eighth with a triple and came around on a base hit by Rajai Davis, Duffy's final batter of the game. The Royals scored six runs off of Alfredo Simon, which was more than the right-hander had given up in his first four starts of the season (spanning 27.3 innings). They beat him the Royal way, raining base hits all over the yard, tallying nine knocks in less than five innings off Simon and 14 total hits in the ballgame.
Game 2, May 1, 7:10pm CDT: Kyle Lobstein vs. Chris Young
The left-handed Lobstein draws a good matchup on paper, as the Royals have a few left-handed bats in the middle of their order who are minimized by southpaws, including Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas. As a team, however, the Royals have a nearly identical OPS against hitters from either side of the plate, with an .808 mark against right-handers and an .805 OPS versus lefties. Lobstein has struggled with handing out free passes, which is a bad trait for a pitcher who gets few empty swings. He has just 10 strikeouts but nine walks through his first 18 innings, and he is facing the wrong opponent to improve his K-to-walk ratio.
Young has been pitching out of the bullpen for the first few weeks of the season but he'll make his first start of the year Friday. He maxed out at 50 pitches back on April 16 and has been mostly used in multi-inning stints, though the Royals will likely have him on a short leash as Young transitions from a reliever's workload. Game 2 could be a high-scoring affair, particularly if Young gets roughed up early and the Royals opt to get work out of the back half of their bullpen.
Game 3, May 2, 6:10pm CDT: David Price vs. Edinson Volquez
If Game 2 is primed to be the slugfest of the series, then Game 3 is setting up to be the duel. Run-ins with navy pinstripes aside, David Price has been his usual Cy-caliber self. If we play the game of "drop your lowest score" and eliminate the April 22 game from his stat sheet, then Price's line becomes a 1.26 ERA with 27 strikeouts, seven walks and 19 hits allowed in 28.7 innings. Of course, everyone's line looks far better when eliminating the worst start, but the Yankee implosion was so out of character for Price (deja vu aspect aside) that it's easier to accept it as a fluke. When watching this game, I encourage readers to observe how Price settles into his setup position, with multiple little adjustments that make him tough for runners and hitters to effectively time, but which takes long enough to draw attention from future pitch clocks.
Volquez has been one of the biggest surprises of the young season. The breakthrough began last season in Pittsburgh, where Volquez trimmed his walk rate to a career-low 6.4 percent (his career walk rate prior to last season was an astounding 11.9 percent). With the walk reduction came a drop in Ks, but this season Volquez has further trimmed the walk rate (4.6 percent) while bringing the Ks back above career levels at 21.1 percent. His delivery has historically been a mechanical mess of imbalance, but Volquez has greatly improved his side-to-side stability this season, adding some physical context to the stark improvements in pitch command.
Game 4, May 3, 1:10pm CDT: Anibal Sanchez vs. Jason Vargas
On April 18, Sanchez had the worst outing of his 10-year career. He gave up nine earned runs while getting just 10 outs against the White Sox, "earning" a Baseball Reference Game Score of just six. He rebounded with 6.1 innings of one-hit ball in his next outing, though he walked a quartet of Yankees. The White Sox game ruined his overall stat line, but his performance has been volatile this season, opening up the vault of possibilities for which version of Sanchez shows up Sunday.
Vargas has been playing the "pitch to contact" tune for a decade, offering the same blend of low walks and minimal strikeouts that would play right into the hands of a lineup like... the Royals. Too bad they only get to experience his penchant for balls in play from the defensive point of view. The soft-tossing southpaw will have the most dangerous Tigers hitters lining up with sharpened claws, and DFS players could see a lot of profit potential in stacking the right-handed bats of Detroit.
Tigers
Miguel Cabrera – In case anyone was out there doubting his skills, Miggy is back to being the best pure hitter in the game. The slash line is a triple-threat of destruction, with 23 games of .373/.465/.627 wreckage upon the pitchers of the American League. Cabrera is opponent-proof when locked in, and the soft slate of pitchers that are on tap for KC this weekend have his fantasy owners salivating at the prospects of a monster set of games.
Ian Kinsler – Kinsler is off to a fine start to the season in every category aside from homers, though his run-in with Vargas on Sunday presents the perfect opportunity to get off the schnide. Vargas has faced Kinsler more times than any other hitter in his career, with 63 head-to-head meetings, and Kinsler has triumphed with a .322/.365/.542 line and nine extra-base hits (including two homers).
J.D. Martinez – With 12 of his 24 hits going for extra-bases so far this season, Martinez is doing a great job proving that last year's gains were for real. He has become entrenched in the middle of the Detroit lineup, and though he has only gone deep twice in his last 16 games, Martinez is a threat to ignite a firestorm of deep flies at any moment.
Victor Martinez – Injuries to a player's knees can have consequences at the plate, as his foundation is compromised, and V-Mart is feeling the ripple effects of off-season knee surgery on his batting line. Coming off a career year in his age-35 season, Martinez has just one extra-base hit – a double – in his first 79 plate appearances this year, taking some of the thump out of the heart of the Tiger lineup.
Royals
Lorenzo Cain – Cain was fantasy relevant last season, with 28 steals in 133 ballgames, but his partial-game usage patterns limited the other counting stats, as he only played 81 games from beginning to end. The Royals have let out the reigns this year, as Cain has started 21 of the team's 22 games so far (finishing 20 of them). Manager Ned Yost has penciled him into the 3-spot in the order each time, and Cain has responded with 16 runs and 12 RBI to go with a half-dozen steals and eight extra-base hits.
Alex Gordon – Gordon has been doing a bit of everything at the plate this season, as his .303/.425/.500 line will attest. The batting average is key, providing a platform to build his on-base and slugging percentages; it's not a coincidence that Gordon's two highest OPS seasons were those with the highest averages. His current OPS of 925 tops them all.
Eric Hosmer – Ditto the batting average for Hosmer, whose best OPS seasons were those with a batting average between .290 and .310, essentially the same high-water mark as Gordon. And again like Gordon, Hosmer's current OPS ranks higher than any previous season, with a .310/.404/.488 line that has paired beautifully with Gordon this season. Hosmer is on a tear right now, with six hits in his last four games, including a double and a pair of homers, one of which was hit against Alfredo Simon in Game 1 of this series.
Mike Moustakas – This post-hype player has been the subject of ire for the last couple of seasons, as his massive power from the minor leagues failed to translate to the highest level. After nearly 2,000 plate appearances of .236/.290/.379 baseball, the former No. 2 overall pick has finally found a groove. The 26-year old just completed the best month of his MLB career, finishing April with a .356/.420/.522 line in 102 plate appearances. He has batted second in the order all season, as the Royals identified early on that he had made adjustments.
