Miguel Gonzalez

2017

Subscribe now to see our 2017 outlook.

2016

Gonzalez had a season to forget. It started harmless enough, as Gonzalez held an ERA under 3.50 with five wins through the first two months of the season. Things derailed from there, as Gonzalez had a 6.06 ERA over the rest of the campaign. He also missed a month with soreness in both his shoulder and his elbow. Gonzalez threw his four pitches (fastball, slider, curveball, splitter) at the same velocity and with the same frequency of prior seasons. The red flags were there all along for Gonzalez, as his ERA was significantly lower than his FIP in each of the three years prior to 2015, including a 3.23 ERA and a 4.89 FIP in 2014. His FIP in 2015 was 5.01, which closely mirrored his ERA for the first time in his MLB career. Gonzalez saw his strand rate fall from 85.5 percent in 2014 to a much more human 73.1 percent in 2015. Last season was bad enough that Gonzalez will not enter spring training as a lock for a rotation spot.

2015

A case like Gonzalez is where you will get in trouble if you just follow the ERA. His 3.23 ERA in 159 innings served both the Orioles and fantasy leaguers well in 2014, but it is hanging by a thread. He had a reliever-esque 85.5% LOB rate, his strikeout rate has dipped yearly, and his home run rate is on the way up as a flyball pitcher in a park that punishes the profile. That all adds up to severe regression with a repeat of the skills paired with a normal LOB rate, and Gonzalez had baseball’s best mark among starters with 150+ innings, and it would’ve been 16th-best among relievers. Even a fall to his career mark of 80 percent would spell some trouble, let alone a dip to the league mark of 73 percent. He has avoided a strong home/road split despite a 1.5 HR/9 rate in Camden Yards. Gonzalez should start 2015 with a rotation spot, but the odds are against him holding it all season.

2014

Gonzalez came out of nowhere in 2012 and proved that he wasn't a fluke with his 2013 campaign. He is a solid middle of the rotation starter, though the Orioles could use him as high as their No. 2 given his recent results. Gonzalez maintained his velocity on all of his pitches in 2013 while winning 11 games. A 38.9% groundball rate leaves room for improvement, especially since Gonzalez carried a 6.3 K/9. Along with Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen, Gonzalez seems like a near lock to make the rotation entering 2014.

2013

Perhaps no breakout story was as sweet as that of Gonzalez in 2012. The Orioles did not sign Gonzalez until early March and he did not appear in spring training. Gonzalez dominated Triple-A with a 5.3 K/BB ratio and a 0.72 WHIP in 44.2 innings. Gonzalez was promoted in late June and the 28-year-old rookie was Baltimore's most reliable pitcher in the second half. Gonzalez had Tommy John surgery in 2009 and threw harder than ever with his mid-90s fastball in 2012. He will have a leg up on the competition, but still needs to earn his rotation spot in spring training.