Taylor Guerrieri

2018

There was no outlook written for Taylor Guerrieri.

2017

Guerrieri started a career-high 26 games in his first full season at Double-A Montgomery in 2016. While his 3.76 ERA and 1.21 WHIP were career worsts, those rate stats don't raise any red flags. However, his strikeout rate dropped for a third consecutive minor league stop to a mediocre 14.7 percent while his walk rate rose to a career-high 7.6 percent. He made strides in showing he can take on a starter's workload after throwing no more than 78 innings in any prior season, but the regression in the strikeout department is hard to overlook. He is on the 40-man roster entering his age-24 season, but his stuff will really need to rebound if he is to once again profile as a future mid-rotation starter. Until then, he can be ignored in the majority of dynasty leagues.

2016

Guerrieri, 23, only pitched 9.1 innings in 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2013 season, but when he took the mound in 2015 he re-established himself as one of the better pitchers in the minor leagues. The 24th overall pick in the 2011 draft compiled a 1.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts in 78 innings across High-A and Double-A last season, reminding everyone why he was thought of as such a high-upside arm coming out of high school. Guerrieri’s injury history and lack of professional innings (just 206.1 since being drafted) make him more risky than organization-mate Brent Honeywell, but what Guerrieri lacks in safety he makes up for in upside. He could be a No. 2 starter in the big leagues, thanks to a plus fastball and plus curveball, and should return to Double-A to begin 2016, likely finishing the year at Triple-A and reaching the majors in 2017.

2015

Guerrieri was rated as a top-100 prospect by MLB.com each of the past three seasons, this despite him coming off Tommy John surgery during the 2013 season. The former first-round pick had off-field issues in high school and in the minor leagues, and the injury was an unfortunate setback. Guerrieri will be 22 years old upon arrival to spring training, and he has yet to throw a pitch at the High-A level. Pre-injury, reports were glossy on him but combine the injury and the slow pace the Rays move their pitchers at, and keeper leaguers are the only ones that should be looking here and it should be with a passive look at this time.

2014

Guerrieri, one of the Rays' top pitching prospects, had a scorching start to the season at Low-A Bowling Green. Over 14 starts, he went 6-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 51:12 K:BB ratio. He has a big fastball with a curveball that can miss bats with frequency. In July, he had some elbow soreness, and it was determined he would need Tommy John surgery. He also had a second positive test for recreational drug use that will be 50 games long. Due to the recovery of the ligament replacement surgery, he will not miss any games due to suspension, but it does put him on the watch list for potential future off-field issues. Guerrieri will likely only see minimal game action, if any, off the mound in the 2014.

2013

Just 21 years old, Guerrieri may have the highest ceiling in the Rays' large stable of talented pitching prospects. His professional debut was limited to 52 innings at Hudson Valley of the New York-Penn League, but Guerrieri delivered a dominant 45:5 K:BB while holding the opposition without a home run over 52 innings. Already 6-foot-3, Guerrieri has little difficulty pushing his four-seam fastball to 95 mph on occasion, while also working in a two-seamer, curveball and changeup. All four of his current offerings grade out as plus pitches, and Guerrieri possesses the ability to command his arsenal exceptionally well. The Rays' track record of developing young pitching paired with his enormous potential could make the long-term investment a worthwhile one in dynasty leagues, even with the organization's tendency to promote prospects very gradually. Look for Guerrieri to begin his ascent to full-season ball with a debut at Low-A Bowling Green in 2013.