Kyle McGrath

At glance, McGrath's big-league debut looks like a resounding success, but a deeper look shows a pitcher who benefited from good fortune. His walk and home run rates were decent enough at 2.8 BB/9 and 0.95 HR/9, but his strikeout rate was underwhelming at 7.6 K/9. Meanwhile, his BABIP finished at .235 and he had an 81.4 percent left-on-base rate, with the estimators suggesting he was significantly worse than his 2.84 ERA would suggest. Now, McGrath does have a history of outpitching his peripherals in pro ball -- as a heavy flyball pitcher, he's been able to maintain low BABIPs over the years. But the stuff is just mediocre, and the upside is not enough to outweigh the risk of significant regression.