30-Year-Old Outfielder – Free Agent
2018 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
Bruce's 2017 season was basically a carbon copy of his 2016 campaign; there were the usual peaks and valleys, but the final numbers were highly valuable. He once again split time between two organizat...
Jay Bruce Contract Information:
Agreed to a six-year, $51 million contract with the Reds in December 2010. The deal includes an option for a seventh year that would push the value to $63 million.
Bruce went 1-for-4 with a solo home run during Thursday's win over Minnesota.
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|2016 (Multiple Teams)||29||MAJ||CIN/NYM||147||589||539||74||135||66||27||6||33||99||4||2||44||126||0||3||3||.250||.309||.506||.815|
|2017 (Multiple Teams)||30||MAJ||NYM/CLE||146||617||555||82||141||67||29||2||36||101||1||1||57||139||0||3||2||.254||.324||.508||.832|
|2018 RotoWire Projections||Subscribe now to see our 2018 projections for Jay Bruce|
|Career (View All)||1416||5,805||5,205||751||1,294||578||272||29||277||838||62||37||528||1,378||3||42||27||.249||.319||.472||.790|
Jay Bruce: MLB Games Played By Position
Jay Bruce Split Stats (View Full Split Stats)
|Year||Age||Lg||Tm||PA||AB||Walk Rate||Strikeout Rate||BB/K Ratio||Contact Rate||BABIP||Isolated Power|
|2016 (Multiple Teams)||29||MAJ||CIN/NYM||589||539||7.5%||21.4%||0.35||77%||.266||.256|
|2017 (Multiple Teams)||30||MAJ||NYM/CLE||617||555||9.2%||22.5%||0.41||75%||.274||.254|
|2018 RotoWire Projections||Subscribe now to see our 2018 projections for Jay Bruce|
Jay Bruce Defensive Stats
|Year||Pos||Inn||PMFinal (?)||EXP Tot (?)||PM (?)||AirPM (?)||EPM (?)||InnHome (?)||PMH (?)||InnLHP (?)||PMLHP (?)||LEFT (?)||MID (?)||RGHT (?)|
|Year||Pos||SHAL (?)||MED (?)||DEEP (?)||CERS (?)||SBRS (?)||PSBRS (?)||BRS (?)||GDPRS (?)||OFARS (?)||GFPDMERS (?)||PMRS (?)||SZRS (?)||TRS (?)|
2017 Stat Review for Jay Bruce As compared to the top 200 hitters in 2016 (min 410 PA)
Patience at the plate often leads to positive outcomes.
A couple of useful stats for evaluating a hitter.
Good contact skills often lead to better fantasy stats.
SLG and ISO are useful indicators of power.
2018 Projected Stats Breakdown for Jay Bruce
2018 projections compared to top 200 hitters in 2016 (min 410 PA)
2018 projections compared to top 100 outfielders in 2016 (min 325 PA)
Jay Bruce: Past News Updates ( ▲ View most recent update )
RotoWire's Preseason Outlooks
After a couple of frustrating seasons, Bruce rebounded in 2016, fueled by his lowest strikeout rate since his 2009 sophomore campaign. His power stroke returned with 33 homers, the second-highest total of his career. The veteran's tenure in Cincinnati ended when the Reds shipped Bruce to the Mets at the trade deadline. As he's done throughout his career, Bruce struggled versus lefties though not as much as usual, recording a .678 OPS. Still, he's a candidate to lose playing time against southpaws. Further, Bruce frequently faces defensive shifts and his batting average suffers as a result. His .250 average was buoyed by a jump in line drives and hard-hit percent along with more homers, but be wary of a repeat as a lot must go right again, including maintaining his improved contact rate. Bruce's power looks bankable, just be ready to buffer a likely dip in average.
Bruce has never developed into the superstar that the Reds thought he might become, and now it appears that his crippling-low batting average is the new normal as more teams continue to shift aggressively against him. His power mostly returned in 2015, as he raised his ISO back over .200 by slugging 26 homers. As the Reds continue their fire sale, Bruce is a good candidate to get dealt, but he might not get hurt as badly as former teammate Todd Frazier by the change in location. He's hit 39 homers at home over the last three years, and 35 away from the cozy confines of Great American Ballpark. Bruce is due $12.5 million in 2016 with a $13 million team option for 2017.
It's convenient to blame Bruce's struggles on the knee injury that sidelined him in early May, but it might still be the primary cause for his struggles. He was first sidelined on May 4 and the expectation was that he'd be out four weeks. He returned from the DL on May 21. Did his swing change because he was compensating for the injury? It's a reasonable guess. His approach at the plate became a mess because of his struggles -- he swung far less often at pitches in the zone than he did at any point during his career. He hit fewer line drives and even fewer flyballs. A return to prominence isn't guaranteed, but a full recovery from the injury this offseason could go a long way toward helping him recoup his swing. Opposing teams employed radical shifts more than ever against him last year and it had a pronounced effect on his batting average, so don't expect him to hit better than .250, but the power should return.
It took Bruce 20 games to hit his first homer of the season, and he ended April with the sole long ball. He subsequently hit a combined 17 homers in May and June, perfectly illustrating his streakiness. There is some hope that Bruce is entering his prime years, but 2013 didn't bring any evidence - just more of the same. Mind you, 30-100 seasons aren't bad by any measure, but he hasn't improved his contact rate at a point in his career where that next step should take place. A power spike could theoretically happen, but owners shouldn't rely upon him becoming a high-average, elite power hitter.
Has Bruce hit his upper plateau, or is there another peak left for him to climb? On one hand, Bruce turns 26 at the start of the 2013 season, and hitters often peak in their age 27-29 seasons. His isolated power is trending upward, hitting a career-high .263 last season. On the other hand, his contact rate hasn't improved over the last three years, in fact taking a slight turn for the worse in 2012. Our guess is that his batting average won't show much luck-independent improvement, but there could be a few 40-homer seasons in his future if he remains in Cincinnati.
Bruce's career trajectory is on the rise. He saw career highs in every major counting category to go along with a career-high walk rate and isolated slugging percentage. He improved his performance against left-handers, at least in terms of hitting for power. He has one of the better right-field arms in the game, for those of you in simulation games like Strat-O-Matic or Scoresheet. His low contact rate (73 percent in each of the last two seasons) will prevent him from being an elite hitter for average, but stardom is on his doorstep otherwise. At age 25 in 2012, there's still room for improvement.
Bruce started slowly for the Reds in 2010, hitting into a decent share of bad luck in April, mixed in with a low contact rate. The luck turned around midseason and Bruce finished the year on fire, ending up with a career-high .846 OPS. He's capable of hitting 30-35 homers at his peak, which might occur in the next couple of seasons. He has a big home/road split, but any concern over that has been washed away by his six-year, $51 million contract extension signed in the offseason. The only factor keeping him from being among the elite fantasy outfielders is a lack of stolen bases - he seems unlikely to top double-digits in any given season.
While there are signs that Bruce is *this* close to breaking out (.222 BABIP, improved walk rate and contact rate), his troubles against lefties are a significant problem. Only two of his 22 homers were against southpaws, and he was starting to get benched against select lefties before his wrist injury in July. Keep in mind that he turns just 23 in April, so there's plenty of time for him to improve, but hope that the Reds (and Dusty Baker) share your patience.
Bruce's big major league splash and preseason hype makes his .254/.314/.453 season seem like a disappointment, but keep in mind he did this as a 21-year-old, with only 115 games above A-ball under his belt. Bruce needs to improve his pitch selection (33 walks, 110 strikeouts in 413 at-bats) and lefties throttled him (.190/.263/.299 in 137 at-bats). But improvement in both areas is possible and likely - get him now in dynasty leagues, while the price is still low.
The Reds are in a tricky spot with Bruce, seeing him advance far quicker than they expected. While he still strikes out too frequently, he's very close to being ready for the majors. Yet the team has a surplus of outfielders and new manager Dusty "I haven't seen him play yet" Baker is someone who seems less inclined to pencil him in the lineup right away. The Reds' trade of Josh Hamilton might open up the door for Bruce to start in Cincinnati right away, although at press time there was still some talk that the team was interested in signing Mike Cameron. He's adjusted rapidly to the level of competition with each promotion, so he's likely to succeed right away once he gets that shot.
Bruce had another solid campaign, tearing apart the low-A Midwest League at age 19. Obviously it will get tougher as he climbs the ladder, but so far he's fulfilling the potential the Reds saw when they made him their first-round pick in the 2005 draft. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts some (after all, he's a Red -- who in their organization doesn't need to cut down on his strikeouts?) but if he's not already owned in your Ultra League, you should put him near the top of your prospect lists.
Bruce was drafted out of high school in Texas with the number 12 overall pick in the 2005 draft. His power potential is significant, but he needs quite a bit of refining, particularly in managing the strike zone.