Lucas Duda
Lucas Duda
33-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Atlanta Braves
2019 Fantasy Outlook
For the second straight year, Duda was traded during the summer months, this time from Kansas City to Atlanta in a post-waiver-deadline deal. He missed nearly six weeks due to plantar fasciitis, and his performance wasn't on par with what we had seen from him in the past. Duda walked at a 7.0% clip with the Royals, the lowest mark of his career outside of his initial 29-game sample in 2010. Far worse for fantasy owners, his power numbers plummeted, as he lost more than 100 points from his ISO and nearly 80 points from his SLG. After the trade, he was primarily a bench option. Duda has been basically a replacement-level player in two of the last three seasons, and in his 30-homer campaign in 2017, he was only worth 1.2 fWAR. It's unwise to expect him to bounce back to a similar level of production. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a minor-league contract with the Braves in August of 2019.
Inks MiLB deal with Atlanta
1BAtlanta Braves  AAA
August 5, 2019
Duda signed a minor-league contract with the Braves on Monday, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
Duda was let go by the Royals one week ago, but he wasn't a free agent for long. He slashed .171/.252/.324 over 39 games this season in the big leagues, but he'll begin his time as a Brave in the minors, likely at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he'll provide Atlanta with depth at first base.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
Since 2017vs Left .563 236 17 7 29 0 .175 .246 .318
Since 2017vs Right .817 741 75 41 100 1 .236 .331 .487
2019vs Left .317 23 0 0 1 0 .095 .174 .143
2019vs Right .640 96 7 4 14 0 .190 .271 .369
2018vs Left .513 102 7 2 14 0 .180 .255 .258
2018vs Right .813 265 28 12 36 1 .264 .336 .477
2017vs Left .658 111 10 5 14 0 .188 .252 .406
2017vs Right .867 380 40 25 50 0 .227 .342 .525
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
OPS at Home
OPS at Home
OPS at Home
OPS on Road
Since 2017Home .787 462 46 23 72 0 .243 .323 .465
Since 2017Away .726 515 46 25 57 1 .200 .299 .427
2019Home .626 41 3 1 8 0 .222 .293 .333
2019Away .550 78 4 3 7 0 .145 .231 .319
2018Home .834 173 19 7 29 0 .291 .353 .481
2018Away .637 194 16 7 21 1 .194 .278 .359
2017Home .781 248 24 15 35 0 .212 .306 .475
2017Away .857 243 26 15 29 0 .223 .337 .519
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Stat Review
How does Lucas Duda compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against this season's data (min 200 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB Rate
K Rate
Exit Velocity
91.5 mph
Hard Hit Rate
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
For the third season in a row, Duda spent time on the disabled list, missing about a month of action with a hyperextended elbow after back problems cost him large chunks of 2015 and 2016. Now 32 years old, Duda's health may be a recurring issue from here on out, but there's no doubting that he's still a serviceable power bat. In just 491 plate appearances split between the Mets and Rays last season, Duda hit 30 long balls, the second time in his career he's reached that benchmark. Duda offers more value in formats that count OBP as a category rather than batting average, but since he's typically out of the lineup against lefties, the impact of the batting-average drain isn't felt as acutely as it might be for other mashers fitting a similar "Three True Outcomes" profile. Assuming he settles into the strong side of a platoon at first base or designated hitter with some team, Duda should make for a decent endgame target for fantasy squads needing a power boost.
What first appeared to be a balky back ended up costing Duda nearly four months of 2016 season. The veteran first baseman was off to a slow start, slashing .231/.297/.431 with seven homers when he was placed on the DL on May 20. Duda returned on Sept. 20, hitting just .217 with no homers in 23 at-bats the rest of the way. While the sample of games Duda played in 2016 is too small to alter his performance baseline, it's imperative to note the veteran missed time the last week of the season due to a sore back and was not active for the Mets' wild card tilt. So, what we have is a power-hitting first baseman who's a batting average liability on the wrong side of 30 years old, coming off a severe back injury that was still bothersome after missing four months or action. If healthy, Duda still has the pop to hit 30 homers but the injury risk means it's best to earmark him for a corner or utility spot, with a backup on reserve.
It was another season of peaks and valleys for Duda, but the final numbers look remarkably similar to those from 2014. Despite hitting below .190 in two separate months, Duda saw his batting average fall only nine points from the previous season, and he led the team in home runs for a second straight year. He also improved upon his already stellar on-base percentage in his age-29 season, maintaining a walk rate right around 12 percent, good for 17th among all qualified hitters in Major League Baseball (ninth in the NL). The strikeouts were up slightly, but he made more consistent contact than he did in 2013 or 2014 — his 76.9% contact rate was below average, but respectable for a player with Duda's power. While he can be a frustrating player to own in fantasy given his streaky tendencies, Duda is a perennial 30-homer threat and his spot in the middle of the lineup is secure.
Finally removed from the shadow of Ike Davis at first base and no longer miscast as an outfielder, Duda had a breakout campaign in 2014. There's little reason to believe he'll ever be able to hit left-handed pitching (32.8 K%, .516 OPS v. LHP last season), but his numbers against righties were elite (.915 OPS) and he showed power to all fields last season after previously being a predominantly pull hitter. The power potential has always been there with Duda, and his first 30-homer season wasn't simply the result of a spike to his HR/FB rate (16.0% in 2014, compared to a 13.5% career mark). If he can maintain the progress that he made with former hitting coach Lamar Johnson, Duda should be primed for another big year in the heart of the Mets' lineup in his age-29 campaign.
Duda opened the season as the Mets' starting left fielder, but proved unable to handle the task defensively while providing less production than expected at the plate by hitting .235 with 11 homers and 23 RBI through mid-June. He was shifted to first base when Ike Davis was demoted, but after just a few days there, a quad injury sidelined him until late August. Duda had four home runs and 13 RBI in September, but hit just .202 for the month. His future value hinges on whether he or Davis is dealt, as Duda has shown he can't play the outfield. Additionally, he continues to struggle against lefties, and now has a career .224/.302/.341 line against them in the big leagues.
Duda was counted on to provide power to the Mets after his solid 2012 season, but he seemingly struggled throughout the year. Those struggles became even more magnified after the All-Star break, where he hit just .214 with three homers and 13 RBI in 112 at-bats after having a decent first half (.249, 12 homers, 44 RBI). Those second-half struggles landed Duda in the minors, but he was recalled after a month in Triple-A. Duda fractured his right wrist moving furniture this offseason, but he is expected to be ready with no restrictions for spring training. The big question is: can Duda adapt to the outfield and not take his defensive problems to the plate?
The last three months of the year Duda made the most of the opportunity opened up by the injury to Ike Davis and trade of Carlos Beltran. Duda hit all 10 of his home runs and drove in 41 of his 50 runs in that stretch, showing power to center and right field, though all of his long balls came against righties. The only negative was that Duda suffered a concussion running into the fence in St. Louis on September 21, missing the last week of the season, but his headaches cleared up in late October and he is feeling healthy. Duda is penciled in as the starting right fielder and should bat fifth for the Mets.
Duda, a seventh-round pick out of USC in 2007, had a breakout season, hitting a career-high 23 home runs between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Buffalo, with a .999 OPS in 264 at-bats for the latter affiliate. He struggled mightily his first few weeks in the majors before having a big last two weeks. Duda also has a good eye at the plate, walking in more than 10 percent of his plate appearances at every minor league stop. His best position may be first base, but with Ike Davis entrenched there Duda will head to spring training with a shot at earning the fourth outfielder spot in New York.
More Fantasy News
Cut loose by KC
1BFree Agent  AAA
July 29, 2019
The Royals granted Duda his unconditional release Monday.
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Removed from 40-man
1BKansas City Royals  AAA
July 27, 2019
Duda was designated for assignment by the Royals on Saturday.
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Playing time slipping
1BKansas City Royals  AAA
July 20, 2019
Duda is out of the lineup for Saturday's game against the Indians, Joel Goldberg of FOX Sports Kansas City reports.
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Smacks third homer
1BKansas City Royals  AAA
June 26, 2019
Duda went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Wednesday's 5-3 loss to Cleveland.
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Benched against righty
1BKansas City Royals  AAA
June 24, 2019
Duda is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Indians.
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