Pedro Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez
31-Year-Old DHDH
Baltimore Orioles
7-Day DL
Injury Achilles
Est. Return 10/1/2018
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Although he was coming off a 22-home run campaign with the Orioles in 2016, Alvarez was only brought back by the organization on a minor-league deal and spent nearly the entire season at Triple-A Norfolk. Alvarez's power was still evident as he hit 26 home runs at Triple-A, but he only slashed .239/.294/.442 with a 23 percent strikeout rate, so he didn't exactly quell the concerns about his ability to consistently make contact and get on base. As a left-handed bat with legit power, Alvarez still has some appeal on the free-agent market, but his struggles against lefties coupled with his lack of defensive prowess dwindles down the number of teams that'd have serious interest. His best chance of making an Opening Day roster would be with an AL team short on power off the bench. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a minor-league contract with the Orioles in February of 2018.
Placed on DL
DHBaltimore Orioles  AAA
Achilles
August 24, 2018
Alvarez was moved to the 7-day disabled list Friday due to an Achilles injury, David Hall of The Virginian-Pilot reports.
ANALYSIS
Alvarez has posted a .285/.331/.467 slash line with eight homers and 32 RBI through 43 games at Triple-A Norfolk in 2018. The severity of the injury is currently unclear, so it's unknown if he'll require more than the minimum on the shelf.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+2%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+41%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+269%
OPS vs LHP
2016
 
 
+30%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .805 54 9 3 9 0 .265 .315 .490
Since 2016vs Right .793 483 56 28 62 1 .234 .315 .478
2018vs Left .958 9 2 1 2 0 .250 .333 .625
2018vs Right .678 118 16 7 16 0 .175 .280 .398
2017vs Left 2.333 3 1 1 1 0 .667 .667 1.667
2017vs Right .633 31 3 0 3 0 .276 .323 .310
2016vs Left .654 42 6 1 6 0 .237 .286 .368
2016vs Right .848 334 37 21 43 1 .251 .326 .522
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+9%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+32%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+65%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+10%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .764 290 38 19 39 0 .218 .293 .471
Since 2016Away .829 247 27 12 32 1 .260 .340 .489
2018Home .598 59 8 4 6 0 .132 .220 .377
2018Away .787 68 10 4 12 0 .224 .338 .448
2017Home 1.009 16 3 1 2 0 .357 .438 .571
2017Away .611 18 1 0 2 0 .278 .278 .333
2016Home .792 215 27 14 31 0 .232 .302 .490
2016Away .872 161 16 8 18 1 .273 .348 .524
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Stat Review
How does Pedro Alvarez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.44
 
BB Rate
12.6%
 
K Rate
28.3%
 
BABIP
.179
 
ISO
.234
 
AVG
.180
 
OBP
.283
 
SLG
.414
 
OPS
.698
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Believe it or not, the 2016 season was the first time Alvarez posted a slugging percentage over .500, which seems strange given that he's known for his power. He remains a three-true outcome player that can't hit lefties and can't play defense which limited his employment opportunities in free agency. He and his agent were hoping he could have a Nelson Cruz-like resurgence in Baltimore. While his slugging percentage has increased three straight seasons, he still carries quite a bit of risk. Given his issues against lefties, it is difficult to roster him in mixed leagues making him more of an AL-only power play with quite a bit of risk to the other scoring categories. Alvarez is also a notoriously slow starter which means he's usually available on the waiver wire if he's not drafted. After re-signing with Baltimore on a minor league contract mid-way through spring training, Alvarez is preparing for a role in the Orioles' outfield, and he figures to also see time at DH.
Following a disappointing 2014, Alvarez found his power stroke last year, clubbing 27 homers with 77 RBI and a .787 OPS in only 491 plate appearances. In the field, the move from third base (-13.8 UZR) to first base (-14.3 UZR) did little to endear him to the defensive-minded Pirates, and Alvarez ended up completing only 37 of his 119 games started because of the lackluster defense. He signed a one-year deal with the Orioles after being non-tendered by the Pirates, and figures to be Baltimore's DH against righties. His power plays in any park, but he could push for 30 homers in that loaded lineup, making him a cheap source of power later in drafts.
The big slugger with big power was a big bust in 2014. After tying for the NL home run lead with 36 in 2013, Alvarez attempted to hit the ball to all fields while improving upon his plate discipline with horrific results. Although his 0.40 BB/K rate represented a career best, he hit half as many homers (18) and saw his OPS drop from .770 to .719 (in 445 PA). Defensively, his 24 throwing errors in 95 starts at third base pushed him to the bench for several weeks before the Pirates moved him to first base. His best bet in 2015 is to serve as part of a first base platoon, as general manager Neal Huntington already confirmed Josh Harrison will start at third base. If Alvarez can return to form as a dead-pull hitter -- four of 36 homers went to right-or-center fields in 2013 as opposed to seven of 18 in 2014 -- he could provide value in an offensive landscape bereft of power hitters.
With 36 homers, Alvarez became the first Pirate to lead the NL in home runs since Willie Stargell smacked 44 in 1973. Alvarez tied Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt for that honor and also drove in 100 runs for the first time. The third baseman offers fantasy owners a predictable skillset: big-time pop, huge strikeout totals (186 in 2013, most in the NL), low batting average (.233 in 558 at-bats) and dependable health (149 and 152 games played the last two seasons). The surprisingly nimble Alvarez enters his age-27 season in 2014, and it wouldn't be shocking to see him flirt with .250 with some more lucky bounces. He's one of the streakiest players in the league, but at the end of the day he boasts reliable power numbers at a shallow position.
Alvarez put up pretty good numbers in his first season as a major league regular. He hit .244/.317/.467 with 30 homers and 85 RBI at a third base position lacking fantasy depth. The left-handed hitter's splits against southpaws and righties (.207/.257) proved predictable as was his predication for striking out (57:180 BB:K ratio). Whether Alvarez's day/night OPS was a fluke remains to be seen, but it's worth noting he compiled a 1.007 OPS during the day and a .670 OPS at night. Numbers like these might drive fantasy owners crazy, but it's important to note that he's far from a finished protect. Only Chase Headley (31) hit more homers among NL third basemen than Alvarez last season. He epitomizes the relationship between high-risk, high-reward players.
In a year of pleasant surprises, Alvarez proved to be a huge disappointment for the Bucs. The 2008 first-round draft pick compiled a slash line of .191/.272/.289 with four homers and 19 RBI in 235 at-bats. Dogged by reports of offseason weight gain, the third baseman injured a quad in April and battled to stay healthy. The Pirates demoted him to Triple-A after a trip to the disabled list, where his .797 OPS was nearly 100 points lower than his previous season (.896). He platooned at third base with Josh Harrison in September, finishing his disappointing sophomore campaign with a 24:80 BB:K ratio. General manager Neal Huntington has promised Alvarez competition for the starting job in 2012 and the team's acquisition of Casey McGehee supports that, but the low-budget Bucs have invested more than $6 million in the enigmatic power hitter and he'll get plenty of chances to show that 2011 was the outlier season and not the norm.
It wasn't surprising when Alvarez won the NL Rookie of the Month award in September because he gets better with experience wherever he plays. That bodes well for Alvarez in 2011, though he and several other Pittsburgh youngsters will need to be ready when big league pitchers adjust their approach. The husky third baseman hit 16 homers and drove in 64 runs in 95 big league games, totaling 29 dingers and 117 RBI between Triple-A and the Bucs. At times, he appeared overwhelmed in the big leagues, as evidenced by a 66 percent contact rate and 37:119 BB:K ratio at the plate along with a .938 fielding percentage and -6.2 UZR rating at third base. Fantasy owners who are looking for power, however, have come to the right place. Alvarez, combined with the short right-field porch at PNC Park, figures to put up the best power numbers Pittsburgh has seen in a long time. It's a coincidence Barry Bonds and Alvarez both hit 16 home runs as rookies, but the Bucs might have their most potent offensive weapon of the last 20 years at the hot corner.
Arguably Pittsburgh's best hitting prospect since Barry Bonds, Alvarez has a good chance of making his major league debut in 2010. The first-round draft pick exceeded expectations in his first professional season last summer, smacking 27 homers and driving in 95 runs while compiling a .913 OPS in 465 at-bats split between High-A and Double-A. The Pirates will most likely wait until at least June to bring him up, especially since the plan worked well with Andrew McCutchen. It almost seems inevitable that he winds up at first base in the long run, but he'll stay at third for as long as his conditioning holds up, according to general manager Neal Huntington. Alvarez's offense actually improved as his competition improved. At High-A, he hit .247/.342/.486 with a 37:70 BB:K ratio. He then put together a .333/.419/.590 mark and 34:59 BB:K ratio for Double-A Altoona. Right now, Alvarez seems like a can't miss prospect whom not even the Pirates can mess up.
With off-field distractions behind him that only agent Scott Boras can wreak (his contract was re-negotiated after a technicality), Alvarez will embark on what the Pirates hope is a quick ascent through their minor-league system in 2009 after a broken hamate bone in his right hand last spring sapped his power numbers a bit last season. The third baseman, who hit 40 home runs with a .340 average his first two seasons with Vanderbilt, hit .317 with nine homers in 2008. Still, the 2008 first-round draft pick has the potential to become Pittsburgh's first 40-home run hitter since Willie Stargell in 1973. While it remains to be seen whether Alvarez can reach those lofty expectations, there's no denying that he has the most power potential at the hot corner for Pittsburgh since Aramis Ramirez.
More Fantasy News
Outrighted off 40-man roster
DHBaltimore Orioles  AAA
June 21, 2018
The Orioles outrighted Alvarez to Triple-A Norfolk.
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Designated for assignment Tuesday
DHBaltimore Orioles  AAA
June 19, 2018
Alvarez was designated for assignment by the Orioles on Tuesday.
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Takes advantage of chance to start
DHBaltimore Orioles  AAA
May 24, 2018
Alvarez went 2-for-4 with two RBI and a run scored Thursday against the White Sox.
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Swats eighth homer Saturday
DHBaltimore Orioles  AAA
May 19, 2018
Alvarez got the start at DH and went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run in Saturday's 6-3 loss to the Red Sox.
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Back in action Tuesday
DHBaltimore Orioles  AAA
May 15, 2018
Alvarez (hamstring) is hitting eighth as the designated hitter Tuesday against the Phillies, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
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