Luke Gregerson
Luke Gregerson
34-Year-Old PitcherRP
St. Louis Cardinals
Out
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 2/1/2019
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Gregerson signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals in the offseason. The Astros used him as a closer in both 2015 and 2016, but did not do so in 2017 and were not interested in keeping him around to compete for what could be an open job after the way Ken Giles closed the season out. Gregerson still gets plenty of strikeouts with that incredible slider but suffered through a horrendous bout of gopheritis last year out of nowhere. Same ballpark as the previous two seasons, but his home run rate nearly tripled. If we calculate in some regression to the mean for his home-run rate and look at the current Cardinal bullpen, it does not take too much effort to put together a clear path for Gregerson to be back into the closer role in 2017. If you are drafting very early in 2018, this could be a very profitable endgame grab. Read Past Outlooks
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#308
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$Signed a two-year, $11 million deal with the Cardinals in December of 2017.
Moves to 60-day DL
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
August 11, 2018
Gregerson (shoulder) was transferred to the 60-day disabled list Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Gregerson was set to see Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion this week, and while specifics have yet to be announced, his move to the 60-day DL brings an increased likelihood of surgery. The 34-year-old's 2018 season isn't officially over yet -- he's technically eligible to return in late September -- but Gregerson is unlikely to have a noteworthy impact for the Cardinals, let alone fantasy.
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Pitching Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-43%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-26%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .223 244 50 29 48 11 2 11
Since 2016vs Right .232 306 99 15 66 19 1 9
2018vs Left .190 25 3 4 4 0 0 1
2018vs Right .333 32 9 2 10 5 0 1
2017vs Left .242 104 24 9 23 6 0 6
2017vs Right .267 159 46 11 39 8 0 7
2016vs Left .212 115 23 16 21 5 2 4
2016vs Right .156 115 44 2 17 6 1 1
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-10%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-75%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-41%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-18%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 4.44 1.18 72.0 3 5 7 10.1 2.8 1.5
Since 2016Away 4.01 1.23 58.1 3 1 9 10.3 3.2 1.2
2018Home 2.84 1.11 6.1 0 0 0 8.5 4.3 0.0
2018Away 11.37 2.05 6.1 0 0 0 8.5 4.3 2.8
2017Home 5.61 1.43 33.2 1 2 1 9.6 3.2 2.4
2017Away 3.29 1.24 27.1 1 1 0 11.2 2.6 1.3
2016Home 3.55 0.94 33.0 2 3 6 10.9 2.2 0.8
2016Away 2.92 1.01 24.2 2 0 9 9.9 3.6 0.7
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Stat Review
How does Luke Gregerson compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.00
 
K/9
8.5
 
BB/9
4.3
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
87.8 mph
 
ERA
7.11
 
WHIP
1.58
 
BABIP
.336
 
GB/FB
3.00
 
Strand %
55.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Gregerson's slider was absolutely devastating last season, and his whiff-per-swing rate of 60.4 percent on the pitch was the second-best rate in all of baseball among pitchers who threw at least 200 sliders in 2016. His strikeout rate of 29.3 percent was more than four percentage points higher than anything he had posted since 2010, and an astounding 53 of his 67 strikeouts last season (79 percent) were finished off by his slider. Gregerson's 3.28 ERA was actually the highest single-season mark of his eight-year career, as the right-hander has established himself as one of the most consistent relief pitchers in baseball. He has proven that he can handle the closer role but is just as comfortable earlier in the bucket line putting out fires. Ken Giles figures to close games for the Astros in 2017, with Gregerson among those who will notch holds in the seventh and eighth.
Signed by the Astros to a three-year deal prior to last season, Gregerson beat out Pat Neshek and Chad Qualls to win the closer role out of spring training. As one of the most dependable relievers in baseball over the past few seasons, the 31-year-old continued to perform at a high level, earning 31 saves in 36 chances for Houston. Gregerson endured a few rough patches during the season, but he never relinquished the closer role and finished the year with a 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP with a 59:10 K:BB over 61 innings. However, the Astros went out and acquired Ken Giles from Philadelphia in the offseason to shore up the back of the bullpen, meaning Gregerson will be relegated to setup duty to start the 2016 campaign.
Gregerson just keeps throwing up exceptional relief seasons and 2014 was no different. He's also been very durable, appearing in 60 or more games in the last six seasons, and leading all of MLB with 435 games pitched over that period. Gregerson's strikeout rate has dropped the last three years (from 9.0 K/9 to 8.7, and again to 7.3 last season), but his walk rate has also dropped at the same time (2.6 BB/9 to 2.4, and again to 1.9 last season). Gregerson relies heavily on his nasty slider, but he actually threw it less in 2014 than he had at any other point in his career (47.1% in 2014 as compared to 68.6% in 2012). Signed to a three-year deal by the Astros in December, Gregerson appears to be the top candidate to handle the closer role in Houston to begin the season.
In each of the last two seasons, Gregerson has slotted into the setup role in front of Huston Street in San Diego, posting a combined 8.9 K/9 across 138 innings in 150 appearances. Gregerson's arm isn't about to fall off following the ample usage, but his offseason trade to Oakland places him in an accomplished bullpen, with Jim Johnson, Ryan Cook, and Sean Doolittle all present at the back end. Thus, Gregerson may not pile up as many holds, let alone saves, but he should be able to uphold his terrific strikeout rate.
In 2012, Gregerson got back to doing what he does best: missing bats at an elite level with his slider, while forcing those that do make contact to put the ball on the ground. What followed was a 2.39 ERA and another season among the top relief pitchers in the major leagues. He was able to pick up some saves, while closer Huston Street was out due to injury and will likely be called upon to do so again in 2013 as Street has never been a model of consistency when it comes to his health. No matter what role he finds himself in, expect Gregerson to excel and bring with him outstanding peripheral numbers.
Although his strikeout rate took a serious nosedive last season (5.50 K/9IP down from 10.23 in 2010), he still has a career 3.18 K/BB ratio and that includes a slight increase in his walk rate last season. Perhaps the oblique injury he suffered in late June was a contributing factor. The team's confidence in Gregerson is high, so he should easily entrench himself as a top dog in the bullpen again this year with a solid spring. He should prove to be a valuable fantasy asset even if Huston Street stays healthy as the Padres' closer.
Only two seasons into his major league career, Gregerson has established himself as one of the best setup men in the game. In 2010, he had an amazing 4.9 K/BB ratio with a 3.22 ERA, and 0.830 WHIP. A large reason for his success is a slider that batters simply can not hit. Should Heath Bell be traded, Gregerson is someone that would excel in the closer role. Toss in his fantastic skill set and he's one of a handful of middle relievers that fantasy owners should target on draft day.
What's strange about Kevin Towers' firing is that his last year in San Diego was among his most productive. Take Gregerson, picked up in exchange for Khalil Greene from the Cardinals. Gregerson pounded the strike zone with his slider and fastball, walking just 22 men unintentionally. There's little reason to believe he can't do this again, and he's first in line for saves should Heath Bell be ineffective, injured or elsewhere. Good value bet for 2010.
More Fantasy News
To seek second opinion on shoulder
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
August 3, 2018
Gregerson will see Dr. James Andrews sometime next week for a second opinion on his right shoulder injury, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Out again with shoulder issue
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
July 30, 2018
Gregerson was placed on the 10-day disabled list with a right shoulder impingement Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Sharp since return
PSt. Louis Cardinals
July 22, 2018
Gregerson has fired 3.1 scoreless innings over four appearances since returning from the disabled list, allowing four hits and two walks while recording three strikeouts.
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Returns from disabled list
PSt. Louis Cardinals
July 13, 2018
Gregerson (shoulder, elbow, knee) was activated off the 10-day disabled list Friday, Rob Rains of StLSportsPage.com reports.
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Joins team in Chicago
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Shoulder
July 11, 2018
Gregerson (shoulder, elbow, knee) has yet to be activated from the disabled list but has joined the Cardinals in Chicago for their series against the White Sox, Max Gelman of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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