Ivan Nova
Ivan Nova
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Pittsburgh Pirates
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Nova's 2017 season was full of strong splits. He pitched well in the first half (3.21 ERA, .297 wOBA against), only to struggle in the second (5.83 ERA, .383 wOBA against). He pitched well at home (2.80 ERA), but struggled to keep the ball in the park and was frequently hit hard on the road (5.02 ERA). Perhaps of most concern, Nova struggled against lefties, allowing a .306/.342/.516 line to them. Interestingly enough, he was more successful in the first half when he wasn't piling up strikeouts, as his K/9 jumped from 5.0 in the first half to 8.7 in the second. Of his three pitches, only his curveball was consistently effective, as opposing hitters did a lot of damage against his two-seamer and four-seamer. Despite the second-half strikeout surge, Nova's ongoing issues with the long ball -- particularly away from PNC Park -- will limit the interest owners have in him at the draft table this spring, and he'll need to find a way to neutralize lefties to replicate his late-2016 success. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a three-year, $26 million deal with the Pirates in December of 2016.
Evens record with quality start
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 15, 2018
Nova (9-9) struck out four and picked up the win, allowing one run on four hits and a walk over six innings in a 3-1 victory over the Brewers on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander delivered his fifth quality start in his last six trips to the mound, lowering his ERA to 4.07 -- the lowest it's been since the end of June. Nova will look to keep things rolling in his next start Friday, a home rematch against the Brewers.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-16%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-18%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .300 957 120 41 270 61 7 38
Since 2016vs Right .251 1134 243 53 264 58 6 38
2018vs Left .284 298 35 14 79 15 4 12
2018vs Right .252 324 70 16 77 18 1 12
2017vs Left .309 364 45 16 106 21 1 16
2017vs Right .249 421 86 20 97 19 4 13
2016vs Left .306 295 40 11 85 25 2 10
2016vs Right .251 389 87 17 90 21 1 13
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 2.95 1.15 244.0 18 10 1 6.2 1.5 1.0
Since 2016Away 5.33 1.38 251.2 13 21 0 6.9 1.9 1.8
2018Home 3.04 1.13 77.0 3 5 0 6.2 1.3 0.9
2018Away 5.43 1.42 69.2 5 4 0 6.7 2.5 2.1
2017Home 2.80 1.22 74.0 8 2 0 5.7 1.6 0.9
2017Away 5.02 1.32 113.0 3 12 0 6.7 1.8 1.8
2016Home 3.00 1.12 93.0 7 3 1 6.7 1.7 1.2
2016Away 5.74 1.43 69.0 5 5 0 7.6 1.3 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Ivan Nova compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.52
 
K/9
6.4
 
BB/9
1.8
 
HR/9
1.5
 
Fastball
92.9 mph
 
ERA
4.07
 
WHIP
1.25
 
BABIP
.296
 
GB/FB
1.43
 
Strand %
73.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Nova went from a Yankees trade deadline afterthought to a near ace for the Pirates in August and September. After starting 2016 in the bullpen for New York, the right-hander returned to the rotation in May and recorded a 4.86 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 91 innings. Upon his arrival in Pittsburgh, Nova was expected to eat innings and little else. He promptly went out and won seven of 11 starts, going 7-3, on a team sinking in the standings. He registered a 3.06 ERA and compiled an astonishing 52:3 K:BB in 64.2 innings. PNC Park's spacious outfield compares favorably to the Yankees' bandbox, and his improved control after the trade to a club widely known for fixing pitcher woes fueled a significant portion of his improvement. Nova re-signed with the Pirates in December, agreeing to a three-year deal that will allow him to remain in a pitcher-friendly environment as a fixture in the Pittsburgh rotation.
After missing most of the 2014 season and needing Tommy John surgery, Nova returned to big league action in the final week of June. He actually got off to a solid start, going 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA through his first six starts, but his season imploded from there and got worse every month, as he posted a 5.67 ERA in August, 6.20 ERA in September and a 7.94 ERA in his lone October start. The 28-year-old finished the season with a 4.87 FIP, suggesting he wasn't a victim of bad luck given a low strikeout rate (6.0 K/9) and high walk totals (3.2 BB/9). He is in serious jeopardy of being held out of the starting rotation in 2016. With Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino safely assured of starting roles, Nova will be left to battle it out with CC Sabathia, Adam Warren and any free-agent acquisitions; Nova could find himself in a bullpen role in 2016.
The 2014 season was a lost one for Nova. He did make four starts, but they were brutal and simply a precursor to his eventual Tommy John surgery. It’s never a good time for a Tommy John, but Nova’s timing was especially painful because he was just coming off a strong 2013 campaign and appeared poised for a huge 2014. Now he is working his way back on the rehab trail and should return at some point this summer. How quickly can he regain the 2013 form that saw him post a 2.59 ERA in his final 15 starts? There is no reason to expect it out of the gate, but he could play himself into usefulness late in the season. At his best, he can miss more bats than league average with a great groundball rate, which helps him survive the homer haven that is Yankee Stadium.
Nova was hampered by injury early in 2013, and ended up being sent to Triple-A for a stint. Once he returned in late June, he was arguably the Yankees' best starter, giving up three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his final 17 starts. Nova relied much more on his two-seam fastball when he returned to rotation, and the results were oustanding. Nova's poor 2012 seems more like an outlier spurred by a high 10.9% HR/FB; in 2013, that number dipped to 5.2%, much more in line with the numbers he put up in his breakout 2011 season. Nova is coming right into his prime at age 27, and could be poised for a big 2014.
After a big 2011 where he put up 16 wins, Nova was an enigma in 2012. He appeared dominant at times, putting up a 2.09 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over a five-start stretch in June, but was far too hittable over the second half, posting a 7.05 ERA from July 15 through the end of the season. It's unclear how much the shoulder stiffness that put Nova on the DL in August hindered his performances both leading up to and following the disabled list stint, but with the full offseason to recover, Nova should be back to full strength in 2013. Nova struck out significantly more batters in 2012, but he more than doubled his home-run total in only five more innings, and gave up 31 more hits as well. He's an interesting upside play for 2013, but he comes with a good amount of risk.
Nova was one of the biggest surprises in baseball last season, going 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA. He relies on a high-90s fastball and a power curve, but doesn't put up the strikeout numbers one might expect with that arsenal, fanning just 98 in 165.1 innings. Nova is likely to be overvalued in fantasy drafts for 2012 thanks to his big win total. He could be a solid fourth starter for the Yankees for years to come, but expecting a repeat of 2011 is pushing it if he doesn't improve his strikeout rate.
Nova got his first taste of big league hitting last season and was predictably erratic. There were some bright spots - holding the White Sox to one run in his first career start comes to mind - but overall he allowed too many baserunners and struggled with his control (1.53 K/BB ratio). He'll have a chance to win a rotation spot this season, and while he won't blow you away with his strikeout numbers, he could emerge as a potential AL-only option who will be in line for some wins thanks to the Yankees' strong offense.
After losing Nova to the Padres in the Rule 5 draft in December 2008 (before eventually getting him back), the Yankees decided to protect him this time around. He made strides last season, keeping his fastball down in the zone and mixing it up with his above-average changeup and improving slider. Although his control needs work, he showed signs of improvement during the Dominican Winter League, posting a 1.05 ERA and 17:4 K:BB ratio in his first five appearances. He’ll likely spend most of the year at Triple-A, but could make a couple of spot starts for the Yankees if injuries strike.
More Fantasy News
Shines in quality start
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 8, 2018
Nova (8-9) earned the win against the Marlins on Saturday by allowing three hits over six scoreless innings. He struck out nine and walked one.
ANALYSIS
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In line to start Saturday
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 5, 2018
Nova (personal) is listed as the Pirates' probable starter for Saturday's game against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Next start date TBD
PPittsburgh Pirates
Personal
September 2, 2018
General manager Neal Huntington said he doesn't know when Nova will return from personal business, but he'll likely need to throw a bullpen session before returning to the rotation.
ANALYSIS
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Scratched from start
PPittsburgh Pirates
Personal
September 1, 2018
Nova will not start Sunday against the Braves due to a personal issue, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
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Goes 3.2 innings in loss
PPittsburgh Pirates
August 28, 2018
Nova (7-9) allowed four runs on six hits in a loss to the Cardinals on Tuesday, walking two and striking out one in 3.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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