Junior Guerra
Junior Guerra
34-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
2019 Fantasy Outlook
In 2018, Guerra set personal bests with 31 appearances, 26 starts and 141 innings. His 2019 role is still unclear, though he's likely to fill a similar swingman role with the lean to more work from the bullpen than last season. The totals would have been higher if not for a 10-day DL stint in July. The 34-year-old righty also set a career high with a 22.3 K%, fueled by adding a couple ticks of velocity across his fastball/splitter/sinker/slider mix. The past two seasons, Guerra has allowed an excess of baserunners, but for different reasons. In 2017, his .236 BABIP was mitigated by a 13.6 BB%, but last season, an unlucky .312 BABIP spoiled an improved 9.0 BB%. If Guerra can maintain the control gains while enjoying a hit rate correction, he could improve on last season's 4.90 ERA. It's not a chance to chase, but it does put Guerra on the radar in deeper formats, especially for the stretches he's in the Brewers' rotation. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $2.23 million contract with the Brewers in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Tabbed for bullpen duty
PMilwaukee Brewers
February 14, 2019
Manager Craig Counsell said Guerra will be looked at as a reliever in camp, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
ANALYSIS
Guerra made 26 starts for the Brewers in 2018, though he finished the season in the bullpen, notching eight strikeouts across six scoreless innings of relief. Entering his age-34 season, the right-hander will likely work as a swingman in 2019.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-17%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .236 673 141 76 139 31 2 24
Since 2016vs Right .242 744 162 65 159 31 4 23
2018vs Left .267 313 67 33 74 16 0 12
2018vs Right .260 298 69 22 69 17 1 7
2017vs Left .235 140 28 19 28 4 1 7
2017vs Right .226 174 39 24 33 4 0 11
2016vs Left .191 220 46 24 37 11 1 5
2016vs Right .231 272 54 19 57 10 3 5
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-51%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-64%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-43%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 2.66 1.21 189.1 8 6 0 8.4 3.6 1.1
Since 2016Away 5.39 1.45 143.2 8 10 0 8.0 4.1 1.5
2018Home 2.48 1.22 90.2 3 3 0 8.9 3.3 1.1
2018Away 6.97 1.73 50.1 3 6 0 8.2 3.9 1.4
2017Home 3.79 1.45 38.0 0 1 0 9.7 5.7 1.9
2017Away 6.68 1.52 32.1 1 3 0 7.2 5.3 2.8
2016Home 2.23 1.05 60.2 5 2 0 6.7 2.8 0.6
2016Away 3.39 1.20 61.0 4 1 0 8.1 3.5 0.9
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Stat Review
How does Junior Guerra compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.47
 
K/9
8.7
 
BB/9
3.5
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
93.3 mph
 
ERA
4.09
 
WHIP
1.40
 
BABIP
.322
 
GB/FB
1.31
 
Strand %
74.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
Following a breakout rookie season as a 31-year-old in 2016, Guerra was tabbed as the Brewers' Opening Day starter to kick off the 2017 campaign. Things quickly went south from there, as he was injured while hitting and missed nearly two months of action. He held his own for a few starts after returning from the disabled list, but he had trouble finding the strike zone, was dropped from the rotation by the end of July and started just one more game for the Brewers very late in the year. Guerra's control and fastball velocity fell off significantly last season, but his success the year before will earn him a chance to secure a spot at the back end of the rotation during spring training. At age 32 without much of a track record, though, he is seemingly a long shot to come away with one of the five openings.
As a 31-year-old rookie, Guerra came out of nowhere to become Milwaukee's ace in 2016. Behind a fastball-slider-splitfinger combination, Guerra recorded a 2.81 ERA with exactly 100 strikeouts over 121.2 innings -- an innings limit imposed by the Brewers considering Guerra had spent most of his previous minor league campaigns in the bullpen. The big ticket for Guerra is the splitfinger, which drew whiffs nearly one in every five times he threw it and held opponents to just a .115 batting average against. Such success always feels precarious for a pitcher like Guerra, who was virtually unknown until his big 2016 season. But that splitter is for real, and while he may not be able to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA, Guerra's arsenal is good enough for him to remain a solid mid-rotation pitcher in 2017 and beyond.
After spending six seasons in independent leagues, Guerra got to pitch last year as a member of the White Sox organization. He moved through Double-A and Triple-A as a long reliever, and even got a taste of the major leagues in June. He got shelled in the majors, but his numbers in the minors were somewhat decent. His Triple-A ERA was only 3.39 and he reduced his WHIP to 1.16 while posting an excellent 11.3 K/9. He'll have to show that he can be effective against major league hitters, but he could see a shot in the big leagues with the Brewers bullpen being fairly young and fluid.
More Fantasy News
Comes to terms
PMilwaukee Brewers
January 11, 2019
Guerra agreed to a one-year, $2.225 million deal with the Brewers, avoiding arbitration, Robert Murray of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Role still undetermined
PMilwaukee Brewers
December 13, 2018
General manager David Stearns said Guerra will enter spring training without a specific role, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. "We think he's going to be an important member of our pitching staff next year," Stearns added.
ANALYSIS
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Pitching well in relief
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 20, 2018
Guerra threw a scoreless inning out of the bullpen in Wednesday's victory over the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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Moving to bullpen
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 4, 2018
Guerra will work out of the bullpen moving forward, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
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Surrenders four in short outing
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 2, 2018
Guerra allowed four runs on five hits and two walks while striking out three across three innings as he didn't factor into the decision Sunday against Washington.
ANALYSIS
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