Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Boston Red Sox
10-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 7/15/2019
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Returning from his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi posted his lowest ERA since 2013 while churning out several career bests, including an 8.2 K/9, 4.4 BB% and 10.7% swinging-strike rate. Earlier in his career, the right-hander failed to pair Ks with high-end velocity, but he tapped into a greater strikeout punch in 2018 as the Rays helped him embrace his cutter and he started throwing four-seamers higher in the zone. Plus, he synced up his release points for better tunneling. Even after his pristine 1.61 postseason ERA, the 29-year-old's fantasy draft price won't likely climb too much due to concerns with season-long durability. He returned to the Red Sox on a four-year, $67.5 million deal and projects to open the season as the team's No. 3 starter. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a four-year, $67.5 million contract with the Red Sox in December of 2018.
Acting conservatively with rehab
PBoston Red Sox
June 24, 2019
Eovaldi (elbow) noted Sunday that he plans to act conservatively with his rehab program following a recent bout with right biceps tendinitis, Ian Browne of reports.
While rehabbing his second elbow scope in as many seasons, Eovaldi experienced biceps tendinitis about two weeks ago, with the setback expected to keep him on the shelf for the remainder of the first half. Though he has since resumed throwing again, Eovaldi remains limited to playing catch at this point, with manager Alex Cora noting that the Red Sox have no bullpen sessions scheduled for the right-hander at this juncture. Once he progresses to the point of facing hitters, Eovaldi will likely require a multi-start rehab assignment after not appearing in a game setting since April 17.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .261 266 51 18 63 9 3 11
Since 2017vs Right .238 282 66 13 63 14 0 9
2019vs Left .313 37 4 3 10 0 0 4
2019vs Right .234 56 12 8 11 4 0 2
2018vs Left .254 229 47 15 53 9 3 7
2018vs Right .239 226 54 5 52 10 0 7
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
No Stats
Since 2017Home 2.72 0.98 53.0 4 1 0 9.0 1.7 1.0
Since 2017Away 5.13 1.33 79.0 2 6 0 7.3 2.4 1.6
2019Home 9.00 2.00 5.0 0 0 0 7.2 7.2 3.6
2019Away 5.06 1.38 16.0 0 0 0 6.8 3.9 2.3
2018Home 2.06 0.88 48.0 4 1 0 9.2 1.1 0.8
2018Away 5.14 1.32 63.0 2 6 0 7.4 2.0 1.4
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Nathan Eovaldi compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 40 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
97.1 mph
Left On Base
Exit Velocity
92.4 mph
Spin Rate
2049 rpm
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
Swinging Strike
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Nathan Eovaldi
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Erik Siegrist reviews the available talent in the AL player pool and finds a lot of roster turmoil in Anaheim, where Ty Buttrey might be in line for the open closer role.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
Tommy John surgery in August of 2016 knocked Eovaldi out for the entirety of 2017. He did make a couple rehab appearances late in the year in the International League championship series, putting him on track to compete for a spot in the Rays' rotation in spring training. Any pitcher coming back from reconstructive elbow surgery is an unknown, but that's especially true with Eovaldi, whose calling card has always been premium velocity. He hadn't been able to generate many whiffs before going down with the injury despite the impressive velo -- Eovaldi has never posted a K/9 over 7.0 at the big-league level. Eovaldi will need to not only return to form, but find a new level to his game, in order to become a trustworthy option in standard fantasy leagues. That seems unlikely coming off TJS considering many pitchers struggle with control and command in their first year back.
After a rough first half of the season, Eovaldi moved to the bullpen for a brief period in July. He found a good deal of success in the new role, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings, but that success was short lived. He was diagnosed a partially torn UCL and fully torn flexor tendon in his right arm in August, which required season-ending Tommy John surgery. As a result, Eovaldi will miss the entirety of the 2017 season. He was non-tendered by the Yankees in the offseason, and given his lackluster results as a starter so far in his career, it seems like he'll move to the bullpen full-time once he's healthy if the Rays decide to hang onto him for another season.
Eovaldi improved in 2015, but it didn’t really show up in his results. Actually, it kind of did as he somehow posted a 14-3 record, but no one is looking at his ERA or WHIP and thinking that he took steps forward. The big change was the development of his splitter, which helped him neutralize lefties over the second half. Through his first 13 starts he had a 5.12 ERA, due in large part to the fact that lefties mangled him for a 1.008 OPS. In his final 14 starts, he had a 3.43 ERA and cut that lefty OPS down to .587 as the splitter turned into a weapon and was key to a 56 percent groundball rate. Unfortunately, his season ended in early September with elbow concerns, but with health this is still a budding profile primed for a surge: insane velocity, a quality breaking ball, and now a way to stifle lefties. He doesn’t allow homers, he’s gotten his walks in check the last two years, and he has strikeout upside. Buy.
An up-and-down ride in 2014 saw Eovaldi on the verge of a breakout campaign before an increased workload appeared to wear on him down the stretch. Eovaldi tossed a career-high 199.2 innings pitched, but his September struggles (0-4, 5.53 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) dragged his overall line to a mediocre 4.37 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 4-16 record. The 25-year-old right-handed hurler improved his control in 2014, slicing his walk rate down to just 5.0% after posting a 8.9 BB% in the previous year. Still, Eovaldi was unable to translate his powerful, upper-90s fastball into a significant strikeout total. A career-best 142:43 K:BB ratio that translated a solid 3.37 FIP presents plenty of reason for optimism as Eovaldi looks to break through 200-inning threshold in 2015. He'll have less margin for error this time around after being traded to the Yankees in December.
After missing the first two-and-a-half months of the season with a shoulder injury, Eovaldi cobbled together a solid campaign for Miami, tossing 106.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Eovaldi works primarily off of his 96-mph fastball, mixing in a two-seamer, slider, curveball and the occasional changeup. His strikeout totals are regularly underwhelming despite the plus velocity, but he did an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard last season, allowing just seven home runs in 18 starts. Entering his age-24 season, there is plenty of reason to think that Eovaldi still has room to grow, but unless he can pick up that strikeout rate, he figures to be little more than a middle-of-the-road option.
After a short stint in the big leagues in 2011, Eovaldi got his first real chance to be a major league starter in 2012 with the Dodgers, replacing an injured Ted Lilly in the starting rotation in late May. He posted medicore results including a 4.15 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his first 56.1 innings pitched before being shipped to Miami in the Hanley Ramirez trade. Eovaldi showed flashes over the second half with the Marlins, but struggled with his command to the tune of a 44:27 K:BB that accompanied a 4.43 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for his new club. Working with a nice 94 mph fastball, Eovaldi will need to improve on the 3.5 BB/9 that he posted last season if he is to find success in the middle of the Marlins' rotation in 2013.
It was a breakout season of sorts for Eovaldi in 2011, as after 103 Double-A innings (2.62 ERA, 8.65 K/9IP), injuries led to his big league debut in August. He fared well in five of his six starts, ultimately posting a 3.63 ERA to go with a below-average 23:20 K:BB in 34.2 innings. With the Dodgers having filled out their rotation in free agency this winter, Eovaldi will open the season in the minors, but he's on the short list once an injury strikes.
Contract purchased by the Dodgers in August 2011.
More Fantasy News
Plays catch again
PBoston Red Sox
June 22, 2019
Eovaldi (elbow) played catch from out to 90 feet Friday, Chris Cotillo of reports.
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Plays catch Monday
PBoston Red Sox
June 17, 2019
Eovaldi (elbow) played catch Monday and is set to resume his throwing program, Bill Koch of The Providence Journal reports.
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May be out until second half
PBoston Red Sox
June 15, 2019
The Red Sox hope Brian Johnson will fill in for Eovaldi (elbow) though the All-Star break, Christopher Smith of reports.
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To resume throwing shortly
PBoston Red Sox
June 14, 2019
Eovaldi (elbow) could resume throwing either Sunday or Monday, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reports.
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Setback not viewed as serious
PBoston Red Sox
June 12, 2019
Eovaldi's biceps setback during his recovery from elbow surgery isn't viewed as a long-term issue according to president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, Chris Cotillo of reports.
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