Nathan Eovaldi
Nathan Eovaldi
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Boston Red Sox
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Returning from his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi posted his lowest ERA since 2013 while churning out several career bests, including an 8.2 K/9, 4.4 BB% and 10.7% swinging-strike rate. Earlier in his career, the right-hander failed to pair Ks with high-end velocity, but he tapped into a greater strikeout punch in 2018 as the Rays helped him embrace his cutter and he started throwing four-seamers higher in the zone. Plus, he synced up his release points for better tunneling. Even after his pristine 1.61 postseason ERA, the 29-year-old's fantasy draft price won't likely climb too much due to concerns with season-long durability. He returned to the Red Sox on a four-year, $67.5 million deal and projects to open the season as the team's No. 3 starter. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $67.5 million contract with the Red Sox in December of 2018.
Saddled with first loss
PBoston Red Sox
September 27, 2019
Eovaldi (2-1) took the loss after yielding three runs on three hits and four walks while striking out three over five innings Friday night against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
Eovaldi gave up all three runs in the third inning on a three-run blast to left field, and the Orioles would go on to win 4-1. The 29-year-old's season is likely over with just two games remaining in the regular season, and he'll finish with a 5.99 ERA and 1.58 WHIP with 70 strikeouts across 67.2 frames.
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
55
Last 10 Games
66
Last 5 Games
89
How many pitches does Nathan Eovaldi generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Nathan Eovaldi generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2017
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .258 375 81 33 86 14 3 19
Since 2017vs Right .256 382 90 22 91 18 0 11
2019vs Left .266 146 34 18 33 5 0 12
2019vs Right .285 156 36 17 39 8 0 4
2018vs Left .254 229 47 15 53 9 3 7
2018vs Right .239 226 54 5 52 10 0 7
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-30%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-60%
ERA at Home
2017
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.04 1.22 78.0 4 2 0 9.0 3.2 1.3
Since 2017Away 5.10 1.36 100.2 4 6 0 8.3 2.4 1.7
2019Home 7.20 1.77 30.0 0 1 0 8.7 6.6 2.1
2019Away 5.02 1.43 37.2 2 0 0 9.8 3.1 2.2
2018Home 2.06 0.88 48.0 4 1 0 9.2 1.1 0.8
2018Away 5.14 1.32 63.0 2 6 0 7.4 2.0 1.4
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Nathan Eovaldi compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.00
 
K/9
9.3
 
BB/9
4.7
 
HR/9
2.1
 
Fastball
97.5 mph
 
ERA
5.99
 
WHIP
1.58
 
BABIP
.317
 
GB/FB
1.40
 
Left On Base
72.1%
 
Exit Velocity
90.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
8.3%
 
Spin Rate
2117 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
40.9%
 
Swinging Strike
10.8%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Tommy John surgery in August of 2016 knocked Eovaldi out for the entirety of 2017. He did make a couple rehab appearances late in the year in the International League championship series, putting him on track to compete for a spot in the Rays' rotation in spring training. Any pitcher coming back from reconstructive elbow surgery is an unknown, but that's especially true with Eovaldi, whose calling card has always been premium velocity. He hadn't been able to generate many whiffs before going down with the injury despite the impressive velo -- Eovaldi has never posted a K/9 over 7.0 at the big-league level. Eovaldi will need to not only return to form, but find a new level to his game, in order to become a trustworthy option in standard fantasy leagues. That seems unlikely coming off TJS considering many pitchers struggle with control and command in their first year back.
After a rough first half of the season, Eovaldi moved to the bullpen for a brief period in July. He found a good deal of success in the new role, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings, but that success was short lived. He was diagnosed a partially torn UCL and fully torn flexor tendon in his right arm in August, which required season-ending Tommy John surgery. As a result, Eovaldi will miss the entirety of the 2017 season. He was non-tendered by the Yankees in the offseason, and given his lackluster results as a starter so far in his career, it seems like he'll move to the bullpen full-time once he's healthy if the Rays decide to hang onto him for another season.
Eovaldi improved in 2015, but it didn’t really show up in his results. Actually, it kind of did as he somehow posted a 14-3 record, but no one is looking at his ERA or WHIP and thinking that he took steps forward. The big change was the development of his splitter, which helped him neutralize lefties over the second half. Through his first 13 starts he had a 5.12 ERA, due in large part to the fact that lefties mangled him for a 1.008 OPS. In his final 14 starts, he had a 3.43 ERA and cut that lefty OPS down to .587 as the splitter turned into a weapon and was key to a 56 percent groundball rate. Unfortunately, his season ended in early September with elbow concerns, but with health this is still a budding profile primed for a surge: insane velocity, a quality breaking ball, and now a way to stifle lefties. He doesn’t allow homers, he’s gotten his walks in check the last two years, and he has strikeout upside. Buy.
An up-and-down ride in 2014 saw Eovaldi on the verge of a breakout campaign before an increased workload appeared to wear on him down the stretch. Eovaldi tossed a career-high 199.2 innings pitched, but his September struggles (0-4, 5.53 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) dragged his overall line to a mediocre 4.37 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 4-16 record. The 25-year-old right-handed hurler improved his control in 2014, slicing his walk rate down to just 5.0% after posting a 8.9 BB% in the previous year. Still, Eovaldi was unable to translate his powerful, upper-90s fastball into a significant strikeout total. A career-best 142:43 K:BB ratio that translated a solid 3.37 FIP presents plenty of reason for optimism as Eovaldi looks to break through 200-inning threshold in 2015. He'll have less margin for error this time around after being traded to the Yankees in December.
After missing the first two-and-a-half months of the season with a shoulder injury, Eovaldi cobbled together a solid campaign for Miami, tossing 106.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Eovaldi works primarily off of his 96-mph fastball, mixing in a two-seamer, slider, curveball and the occasional changeup. His strikeout totals are regularly underwhelming despite the plus velocity, but he did an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard last season, allowing just seven home runs in 18 starts. Entering his age-24 season, there is plenty of reason to think that Eovaldi still has room to grow, but unless he can pick up that strikeout rate, he figures to be little more than a middle-of-the-road option.
After a short stint in the big leagues in 2011, Eovaldi got his first real chance to be a major league starter in 2012 with the Dodgers, replacing an injured Ted Lilly in the starting rotation in late May. He posted medicore results including a 4.15 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his first 56.1 innings pitched before being shipped to Miami in the Hanley Ramirez trade. Eovaldi showed flashes over the second half with the Marlins, but struggled with his command to the tune of a 44:27 K:BB that accompanied a 4.43 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for his new club. Working with a nice 94 mph fastball, Eovaldi will need to improve on the 3.5 BB/9 that he posted last season if he is to find success in the middle of the Marlins' rotation in 2013.
It was a breakout season of sorts for Eovaldi in 2011, as after 103 Double-A innings (2.62 ERA, 8.65 K/9IP), injuries led to his big league debut in August. He fared well in five of his six starts, ultimately posting a 3.63 ERA to go with a below-average 23:20 K:BB in 34.2 innings. With the Dodgers having filled out their rotation in free agency this winter, Eovaldi will open the season in the minors, but he's on the short list once an injury strikes.
Contract purchased by the Dodgers in August 2011.
More Fantasy News
Strikes out six in win
PBoston Red Sox
September 22, 2019
Eovaldi (2-0) gave up three runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out six through six innings to earn the win over the Rays on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard by Giants
PBoston Red Sox
September 17, 2019
Eovaldi allowed five earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out six across four innings Tuesday against the Giants. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Takes no-decision
PBoston Red Sox
September 11, 2019
Eovaldi allowed three runs on six hits with two walks and six strikeouts across 4.1 innings during a no-decision against the Blue Jays on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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No-decision against Twins
PBoston Red Sox
September 5, 2019
Eovaldi didn't factor into the decision against the Twins on Thursday, giving up one earned run on one hit over five innings, striking out three and walking four as the Red Sox eventually fell 2-1.
ANALYSIS
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Whiffs eight in no-decision
PBoston Red Sox
August 31, 2019
Eovaldi allowed one run on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over four innings. He did not factor into the decision Friday versus the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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