Nathan Eovaldi Fantasy News & Stats

Nathan Eovaldi

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Boston Red Sox

2018 Stats

W-L

6-7

ERA

3.81

WHIP

1.13

101

2019 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2019 Fantasy Outlook

Returning from his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi posted his lowest ERA since 2013 while churning out several career bests, including an 8.2 K/9, 4.4% BB% and 10.7% swinging-strike rate. Earlier in his career, the right-hander failed to pair K’s with high-end velocity, but he tapped into a greater strikeout punch in 2018 as the Rays helped him embrace his cutter and he started throwing four-seamers higher in the zone. Plus, he synced up his release points for better tunneling to disguise the difference. Even after his pristine 1.61 postseason ERA, the impending 29-year-old’s fantasy draft price won’t likely climb too much due to concerns with season-long durability. It's possible that whichever team signs Eovaldi will use him in abbreviated outings in order to avoid his third-time-through exposure, but that's not the worst thing for his ratios, nor is it all that different from how most pitchers are handled nowadays. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

Overall

Starting Pitcher

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League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 225

DOB 2/13/1990

Born Houston, TX

College None

Drafted 11th Rd 2008 LAD

Signs with Boston

PBoston Red Sox

December 6, 2018

Eovaldi inked a deal with the Red Sox on Thursday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. Per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the terms of his contract are four years and $67.5 million.

ANALYSIS
It shouldn't come as any surprise that Boston wanted Eovaldi back in town following his performance in the postseason, during which he logged a 1.61 ERA and 0.81 WHIP with a 16:3 K:BB across 22.1 innings. His most impressive performance arguably came against the Dodgers in Game 3 of the Fall Classic, where the right-hander threw six-plus frames in extra innings to keep the rest of the staff as fresh as possible for the remainder of the series. Eovaldi began the 2018 campaign in Tampa Bay before getting acquired by Boston before the non-waiver trade deadline and finished the year with a 3.81 ERA and 8.2 K/9 in 22 appearances (21 starts). He will slide right back into the middle of the Red Sox's rotation behind Chris Sale and David Price.

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Pitching Stats

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MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2016

-7%

BAA vs RHP

2018

-6%

BAA vs RHP

2017

No Stats

2016

-9%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2016vs Left	.261	464	93	40	109	23	5	19
Since 2016vs Right	.242	516	105	20	119	24	0	18
2018vs Left	.254	229	47	15	53	9	3	7
2018vs Right	.239	226	54	5	52	10	0	7
2017vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2017vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2016vs Left	.268	235	46	25	56	14	2	12
2016vs Right	.245	290	51	15	67	14	0	11
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2016

-35%

ERA at Home

2018

-60%

ERA at Home

2017

No Stats

2016

-15%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2016Home	3.36	1.11	109.2	9	4	0	8.0	1.8	1.3
Since 2016Away	5.14	1.32	126.0	6	11	0	7.1	2.7	1.5
2018Home	2.06	0.88	48.0	4	1	0	9.2	1.1	0.8
2018Away	5.14	1.32	63.0	2	6	0	7.4	2.0	1.4
2017Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2017Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2016Home	4.38	1.30	61.2	5	3	0	7.2	2.3	1.8
2016Away	5.14	1.32	63.0	4	5	0	6.9	3.4	1.6
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Stat Review

How does Nathan Eovaldi compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

K/BB

5.05

K/9

8.2

BB/9

1.6

HR/9

1.1

Fastball

97.2 mph

ERA

3.81

WHIP

1.13

BABIP

.300

GB/FB

1.42

Strand %

70.3%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Tommy John surgery in August of 2016 knocked Eovaldi out for the entirety of 2017. He did make a couple rehab appearances late in the year in the International League championship series, putting him on track to compete for a spot in the Rays' rotation in spring training. Any pitcher coming back from reconstructive elbow surgery is an unknown, but that's especially true with Eovaldi, whose calling card has always been premium velocity. He hadn't been able to generate many whiffs before going down with the injury despite the impressive velo -- Eovaldi has never posted a K/9 over 7.0 at the big-league level. Eovaldi will need to not only return to form, but find a new level to his game, in order to become a trustworthy option in standard fantasy leagues. That seems unlikely coming off TJS considering many pitchers struggle with control and command in their first year back.

After a rough first half of the season, Eovaldi moved to the bullpen for a brief period in July. He found a good deal of success in the new role, tossing 7.2 scoreless innings, but that success was short lived. He was diagnosed a partially torn UCL and fully torn flexor tendon in his right arm in August, which required season-ending Tommy John surgery. As a result, Eovaldi will miss the entirety of the 2017 season. He was non-tendered by the Yankees in the offseason, and given his lackluster results as a starter so far in his career, it seems like he'll move to the bullpen full-time once he's healthy if the Rays decide to hang onto him for another season.

Eovaldi improved in 2015, but it didn’t really show up in his results. Actually, it kind of did as he somehow posted a 14-3 record, but no one is looking at his ERA or WHIP and thinking that he took steps forward. The big change was the development of his splitter, which helped him neutralize lefties over the second half. Through his first 13 starts he had a 5.12 ERA, due in large part to the fact that lefties mangled him for a 1.008 OPS. In his final 14 starts, he had a 3.43 ERA and cut that lefty OPS down to .587 as the splitter turned into a weapon and was key to a 56 percent groundball rate. Unfortunately, his season ended in early September with elbow concerns, but with health this is still a budding profile primed for a surge: insane velocity, a quality breaking ball, and now a way to stifle lefties. He doesn’t allow homers, he’s gotten his walks in check the last two years, and he has strikeout upside. Buy.

An up-and-down ride in 2014 saw Eovaldi on the verge of a breakout campaign before an increased workload appeared to wear on him down the stretch. Eovaldi tossed a career-high 199.2 innings pitched, but his September struggles (0-4, 5.53 ERA, 1.63 WHIP) dragged his overall line to a mediocre 4.37 ERA and 1.33 WHIP to go along with a 4-16 record. The 25-year-old right-handed hurler improved his control in 2014, slicing his walk rate down to just 5.0% after posting a 8.9 BB% in the previous year. Still, Eovaldi was unable to translate his powerful, upper-90s fastball into a significant strikeout total. A career-best 142:43 K:BB ratio that translated a solid 3.37 FIP presents plenty of reason for optimism as Eovaldi looks to break through 200-inning threshold in 2015. He'll have less margin for error this time around after being traded to the Yankees in December.

After missing the first two-and-a-half months of the season with a shoulder injury, Eovaldi cobbled together a solid campaign for Miami, tossing 106.1 innings with a 3.39 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Eovaldi works primarily off of his 96-mph fastball, mixing in a two-seamer, slider, curveball and the occasional changeup. His strikeout totals are regularly underwhelming despite the plus velocity, but he did an excellent job keeping the ball in the yard last season, allowing just seven home runs in 18 starts. Entering his age-24 season, there is plenty of reason to think that Eovaldi still has room to grow, but unless he can pick up that strikeout rate, he figures to be little more than a middle-of-the-road option.

After a short stint in the big leagues in 2011, Eovaldi got his first real chance to be a major league starter in 2012 with the Dodgers, replacing an injured Ted Lilly in the starting rotation in late May. He posted medicore results including a 4.15 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his first 56.1 innings pitched before being shipped to Miami in the Hanley Ramirez trade. Eovaldi showed flashes over the second half with the Marlins, but struggled with his command to the tune of a 44:27 K:BB that accompanied a 4.43 ERA and 1.54 WHIP for his new club. Working with a nice 94 mph fastball, Eovaldi will need to improve on the 3.5 BB/9 that he posted last season if he is to find success in the middle of the Marlins' rotation in 2013.

It was a breakout season of sorts for Eovaldi in 2011, as after 103 Double-A innings (2.62 ERA, 8.65 K/9IP), injuries led to his big league debut in August. He fared well in five of his six starts, ultimately posting a 3.63 ERA to go with a below-average 23:20 K:BB in 34.2 innings. With the Dodgers having filled out their rotation in free agency this winter, Eovaldi will open the season in the minors, but he's on the short list once an injury strikes.

Contract purchased by the Dodgers in August 2011.

More Fantasy News

Scratched from Game 4 start

PBoston Red Sox

October 27, 2018

Eovaldi will not start Game 4 of the World Series against the Dodgers on Saturday after throwing six innings of relief during Friday's 18-inning affair, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.