Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Washington Nationals
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Corbin took a big step forward in 2017, but few could have predicted his ascension to full-fledged ace-dom in 2018. The lefty's strikeout rate exploded, leaping from 21.6% to 30.8%. His slider graded out as the best slider among qualified starters per FanGraphs, and thanks largely to that dominant pitch he led qualifiers in O-Swing%. Corbin's fastball and curveball were plus offerings, and with Corbin nearly halving his home-run rate, the estimators put him in the same class as Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola among the best options in the National League. The numbers only got stronger as the season wore on, making Corbin the most coveted arm on the free-agent market this winter. The Nationals won the sweepstakes and should insert Corbin behind Scherzer atop the rotation to start the year. While he doesn't have the track record of success that many other top-end arms do, Corbin's skills are legitimate and worth paying a premium for. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a six-year, $140 million contract with the Nationals in December of 2018.
Yields one run in victory
PWashington Nationals
June 19, 2019
Corbin (6-5) allowed one run on four hits with eight strikeouts and three walks across seven innings to earn a victory against the Phillies on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
This was a great way to respond after Corbin allowed a season-high seven runs in his last outing. The win also snapped a three-game losing streak. Corbin's ERA increased half a run after his last poor performance, but it's back below 4.00 following Wednesday. He is 6-5 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 92.1 innings this season. His next start will come against the Braves at home Sunday.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-27%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .220 435 144 33 87 17 2 12
Since 2017vs Right .251 1574 382 108 362 87 5 42
2019vs Left .178 81 30 8 13 1 0 2
2019vs Right .244 302 72 24 66 13 0 11
2018vs Left .239 176 59 15 38 11 0 4
2018vs Right .213 624 187 33 124 32 0 11
2017vs Left .220 178 55 10 36 5 2 6
2017vs Right .292 648 123 51 172 42 5 20
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-28%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-63%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-19%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-38%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.09 1.15 256.1 20 10 0 9.9 2.5 0.7
Since 2017Away 4.27 1.31 225.2 11 15 0 9.8 2.8 1.4
2019Home 2.17 0.89 49.2 4 1 0 9.6 2.4 0.5
2019Away 5.91 1.57 42.2 2 4 0 10.3 4.0 2.1
2018Home 3.47 1.03 103.2 7 5 0 11.4 2.1 0.8
2018Away 2.80 1.07 96.1 4 2 0 10.7 2.2 0.6
2017Home 3.15 1.40 103.0 9 4 0 8.5 3.1 0.6
2017Away 5.09 1.44 86.2 5 9 0 8.4 2.7 2.0
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Stat Review
How does Patrick Corbin compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 40 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.19
 
K/9
9.9
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
91.4 mph
 
ERA
3.90
 
WHIP
1.20
 
BABIP
.294
 
GB/FB
1.42
 
Left On Base
71.1%
 
Exit Velocity
90.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
10.2%
 
Spin Rate
2243 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
42.5%
 
Swinging Strike
12.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Patrick Corbin
DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks
2 days ago
Adam Zdroik looks over Tuesday's slate, keying on Justin Verlander as an easy choice against the Reds.
PrizePicks MLB: Tuesday Picks
2 days ago
Can Yordan Alvarez continue swinging a hot bat against the Reds on Tuesday? Mike Barner is targeting the Over for the Astros rookie slugger on PrizePicks.
FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Breakdown
2 days ago
Chris Bennett reviews Tuesday's jam-packed slate and sees no reason to start fading Yordan Alvarez yet, as the Astros' left-handed hitters get a plus matchup in Cincinnati against Anthony DeSclafani.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Picks
3 days ago
Christopher Olson is rolling with a Dodgers stack, featuring Cody Bellinger, on Monday against the Giants.
FanDuel MLB: Monday Breakdown
3 days ago
FanDuel's Monday slate has some questions near the top of the pitcher pricing, so Kevin Payne suggests moving down the list to the struggling but promising Miles Mikolas.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Corbin rescued his 2017 season by posting a 3.26 ERA after the All-Star break, ranking 15th among starting pitchers, and matched his career-best 14 wins. The southpaw rediscovered dominance at 8.5 K/9, thanks to boosts in first-pitch strikes (62.5 percent), swinging strikes (11.0) and pitches in the zone (43.1). That looks good when paired with his elite groundball rate (53.8 percent in 2016, 50.4 in 2017). The young vet thrived with Jeff Mathis behind the plate (3.41 ERA in six starts) and could approach his 3.15 home ERA again with the Diamondbacks installing a humidor at Chase Field. However, his outlook would be sunnier had he not lost control the last two years (3.3 BB/9 combined), and he must figure out how to tame righties, who tagged him for a .349 wOBA last season. The 28-year-old also leans heavily on his slider, a common cause for health issues. That said, he looks to have returned to pre-Tommy John form and can be had at a low cost in many drafts.
In his first full season back after 2014 Tommy John surgery, Corbin fell well short of expectations. He was a bit up and down out of the gate but had a 3.99 ERA on May 20 after posting a quality start against St. Louis. From that point on, however, the lefty posted a 5.80 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. In August, the team decided to move Corbin to a relief role, and he actually did pretty well. As a reliever, Corbin posted a 2.70 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 23.1 innings. Of course, Corbin holds more long-term value if he can be an effective starter again, and given Arizona's struggles in the rotation last season, he could snag a spot in 2017. Remember, this is a guy who posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 178 strikeouts over 208.1 innings in 2013, before the surgery. If Corbin finds a way to approach those kinds of numbers again, he'll be a useful fantasy option. At the very least, he'll likely come at a steep discount in drafts.
After undergoing Tommy John surgery during spring training in 2014, Corbin missed all of the 2014 season and a big chunk of the 2015 season. He returned to the rotation July 4 and went 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA the rest of the way, striking out 78 batters in 85 innings. In 2016, the Diamondbacks expect to get a full season out of Corbin, although they may exhibit some caution with his innings total. Corbin’s last full season was in 2013, when he made the NL All-Star team. That year, Corbin went 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA across 208.1 innings, while racking up 178 strikeouts. He won’t reach that innings total this year, but he could be a solid fantasy contributor who posts useful ratios plus a decent number of wins and strikeouts.
Corbin never had a chance to show how real his stud effort from 2013 was as he went down with Tommy John surgery in late March. The last time we saw him he was cutting up the league for 208 strong innings with very useful ratios and a decent strikeout rate. The breakdown of that season left some questions about how much to trust it, though. He had a 2.24 ERA through his first 21 starts before posting a 6.05 ERA in his last 11. He allowed 10 home runs during that run, highlighting the biggest concern with Corbin. He had a 1.2 HR/9 rate in 2012, but then allowed just 0.6 HR/9 in those 21 starts through July 2013. The equation seems simple: keep the ball in the yard and enjoy the success that comes with it, but executing that equation is the difficult part for any pitcher. The Diamondbacks are targeting a June return for Corbin, though expectations on the fantasy landscape should be kept to a minimum. He could play himself into a streaming option for spells during 2015.
Before the All-Star break, Corbin was having a potential Cy Young year, posting a 2.35 ERA in the first half, but his less-than-stellar second half (5.19 ERA, .286 BAA) sunk his overall season stats. Still, he was a pleasant surprise for those who took a late flyer on him, thanks in large part to his ability to pound the strike zone and maintain steady peripherals with an uptick in fastball velocity (he averaged a career-high 92.1 mph). It remains to be seen if he can be a true ace, but he still figures to be at the top of the Diamondbacks' 2014 rotation.
After pitching very well during his first exposure at Triple-A Reno, Corbin entered the mix for the Arizona rotation and held his own despite seemingly poor results. Although his strikeout rate fell in the big leagues (7.2 K/9) from Reno (9.5 K/9), Corbin demonstrated good control (2.1 BB/9) and his primary weakness was a propensity to give up home runs. Things appeared to click for Corbin in August, as he had a 34:8 K:BB in 36.2 innings (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) before struggling in September. A former second-round pick, Corbin is often overlooked as the second piece of the trade that once sent Dan Haren to Anaheim, but he's a polished left-hander with good control of a four-pitch arsenal, and should be a frontrunner to land a rotation spot in spring training.
Corbin is often overlooked as the "other" prospect the D-Backs received in the Dan Haren trade with the Angels in 2010, but he's proven to be a nice young pitcher in his own right. The 22-year-old led the Southern League in innings pitched (160.1) and strikeouts (142) while pushing his way into consideration for a late-season callup to Arizona. Thanks to a stockpile of young pitching talent, Corbin will likely spend most of 2012 at Triple-A Reno and could ultimately be a trade chip if the likes of Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer make their respective big league impacts as expected.
Corbin was one of the farmhands included in the Dan Haren trade orchestrated by interim general manager Jerry Dipoto in July. While he wasn't the centerpiece, the development of Corbin and Tyler Skaggs will ultimately determine whether the D-Backs received an acceptable return for their ace. At age 21, Corbin finished the season strong at High-A Visalia and compiled a 136:37 K:BB over 144.2 innings between Low-A and his two High-A clubs. While Corbin may not have the arsenal of a future ace, he still has projectability if his velocity increases and he could advance quickly depending on how his first taste of Double-A goes.
More Fantasy News
Start postponed again
PWashington Nationals
June 18, 2019
Corbin won't make his scheduled start Tuesday versus the Phillies due to inclement weather.
ANALYSIS
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Start postponed by rain
PWashington Nationals
June 17, 2019
Corbin won't make his scheduled start Monday against the Phillies due to inclement weather Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Walloped by White Sox
PWashington Nationals
June 12, 2019
Corbin (5-5) took the loss Tuesday, surrendering seven runs on six hits and two walks over five-plus innings while striking out five as the Nationals were downed 7-5 by the White Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Takes loss against Padres
PWashington Nationals
June 6, 2019
Corbin (5-4) was hit with the loss against the Padres on Thursday, giving up five runs (three earned) on five hits over five innings, striking out six and walking five as the Nationals fell 5-4.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged for eight runs
PWashington Nationals
May 31, 2019
Corbin (5-3) yielded eight runs (six earned) on 11 hits while striking out two over 2.2 innings Friday night in a loss to the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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