Robbie Erlin
Robbie Erlin
27-Year-Old PitcherRP
San Diego Padres
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Not everyone returns from Tommy John surgery in 12 to 14 months. Erlin had the procedure in May 2016, with the hope of returning around the All-Star break this past season. Despite no real hiccups in rehab, it was determined Erlin wouldn't pitch at all in 2017. However, the Padres are still confident their 27-year-old southpaw can be an asset, signing him to a contract in December, avoiding arbitration. Erlin relies on a 90-mph fastball, mixing in a curve and changeup. Because his velocity is just average, he needs command and control, which are generally the last to come around after TJS. The Padres are building up their system, but they're not quite ready yet. It's in their best interest to see what they have in Erlin, giving him a good look while building up enough innings so he can work unrestricted in 2019. Consider Erlin in deeper formats conducive to streaming starters. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Padres in December of 2017.
Collects win against Giants
PSan Diego Padres
September 20, 2018
Erlin (4-7) got the win Wednesday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
Erlin allowed a three-run double with two outs in the second inning to opposing pitcher Chris Stratton, but he was able to blank the San Francisco bats the rest of the way. The lefty has made it through six full innings just once all season, and now carries a 4.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 84:12 K:BB across 104 innings. He'll take on the Giants again next time out in San Francisco on Tuesday.
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Pitching Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
2017
No Stats
2016
 
 
-51%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .240 136 37 5 31 3 3 4
Since 2016vs Right .276 318 57 8 84 17 1 10
2018vs Left .257 119 31 4 29 3 2 4
2018vs Right .279 277 50 6 74 15 0 7
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016vs Left .125 17 6 1 2 0 1 0
2016vs Right .256 41 7 2 10 2 1 3
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-34%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-54%
ERA at Home
2017
No Stats
2016
 
 
-90%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.41 1.02 60.2 0 4 0 7.0 0.9 1.2
Since 2016Away 5.17 1.22 53.0 4 5 0 7.8 1.2 1.0
2018Home 2.80 0.97 54.2 0 3 0 7.1 0.8 0.8
2018Away 6.09 1.35 44.1 3 4 0 7.7 1.0 1.2
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016Home 9.00 1.50 6.0 0 1 0 6.0 1.5 4.5
2016Away 0.93 0.62 9.2 1 1 0 8.4 1.9 0.0
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Stat Review
How does Robbie Erlin compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
7.00
 
K/9
7.3
 
BB/9
1.0
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
90.3 mph
 
ERA
4.33
 
WHIP
1.15
 
BABIP
.317
 
GB/FB
1.59
 
Strand %
64.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Erlin failed to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster, but he picked up a win in relief immediately upon his promotion in early April before taking the place of the injured Tyson Ross in the San Diego rotation. He pitched well in his first start before getting knocked around in his second outing, and the Padres placed him on the DL with an elbow strain which ultimately required Tommy John surgery in May. A finesse lefty, Erlin's early professional success hasn't translated since his first foray above Double-A in 2013. The former third-round pick would have had an opportunity to stick with the Padres last season given the slew of injuries to the team's pitching staff, but if he's healthy enough to return in 2017, he will probably be deployed in the bullpen as both his per-game and season workloads will be limited.
Erlin ultimately failed to make the big league roster out of spring training and instead spent most of the season at Triple-A El Paso in the Pacific Coast League. He did away with his two-seam fastball and upped his usage of his changeup from 16.1% in 2014 to 21.8%, but his numbers were still underwhelming on the whole. Over 125.1 innings in El Paso, he posted a 5.60 ERA and allowed an alarming 22 home runs. He certainly wasn't pitching in favorable environments, but those numbers are still alarming. Erlin eventually joined the Padres in September and made three starts. Aside from a seven-run meltdown in Coors Field, he made his mark by closing the year allowing just two runs across back-to-back seven-inning outings. He figures to be in the mix for a rotation spot in 2016, but time will tell if the southpaw can put it all together and stick in the majors for a full season as a back-end starter.
A former top pitching prospect, Erlin landed the No. 5 spot in the Padres’ rotation out of spring training last year, but early-season struggles were soon followed by his placement on the DL in mid-May with a sore left elbow. Initially expected to miss 2-to-3 starts, he was instead absent from the big leagues for nearly four months, a period that allowed Jesse Hahn and Odrisamer Despaigne to make inroads as starters at the highest level. In the end, Erlin’s lost season included a 4.99 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 46:15 K:BB in 61.1 innings with the Padres, which was fueled by an unsavory .332 BABIP. Erlin will compete with Despaigne, Brandon Morrow, and Matt Wisler for the final spot in the Padres' rotation during spring training.
At 23 years old, Erlin is a former top starting pitching prospect but didn't live up to the billing in 2013, turning in an up-and-down campaign. He was particularly porous in 20 nods at Triple-A Tucson, with a 5.07 ERA and 84:43 K:BB ratio in 99.1 innings. Meanwhile, five spot performances with the Padres prior to a permanent callup on Aug. 28 were along the same lines, but the southpaw flashed his talent in five further outings to complete the season, twirling four quality starts during a stretch in which he posted a 24:7 K:BB across 32 frames. If he demonstrates similar progress in spring training, a starting role could be his in a rotation with a few spots perhaps up for grabs.
After exploding onto the scene in 2010 in the Rangers' farm system and following it up with a highly productive 2011 campaign, Erlin's 2012 season with the Padres was a bit of a disappointment as he missed nearly three months due to an elbow strain. When he was healthy, he showed an elite ability to miss bats and limit walks to opposing batters. Later in the year, he showed he was past his elbow woes in the Arizona Fall League, where he struck out over a third of the batters he faced. At only 22 years old, Erlin is on the fast track to majors and should be monitored by all owners who have an interest in rising prospects.
The young lefty was acquired by the Padres in the Mike Adams deal and could prove to be a valuable asset down the road. Prior to his arrival, he had posted a 2.74 ERA over almost three full minor league seasons, averaging a 9.75 K/9IP with just a 1.15 BB/9IP. Although he had some struggles in Double-A last season, he finished the year strong posting a 7.75 K/BB with a 1.38 ERA despite an outrageous .364 BABIP against in six starts. He'll need some more seasoning in the minors, but given the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Petco Park, he should be on your radar in keeper and dynasty leagues.
In a Rangers organization littered with quality young arms, Erlin is one to grab now in keeper formats as he could rise quickly through the minors. At 20, he's a very polished left-hander with three good offerings. As his 125:17 K:BB ratio with Low-A Hickory suggests, he may not need long to make the leap to Double-A and put himself on the Rangers' radar in 2012. Look for Erlin to start the year at High-A Myrtle Beach with an eye toward a spin at Frisco during the second half.
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Pitches well versus Rangers
PSan Diego Padres
September 14, 2018
Erlin (3-7) had a solid start in a loss to the Rangers on Friday, going 5.1 innings and allowing two runs (one earned) on six hits while striking out six.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged for seven runs in loss
PSan Diego Padres
September 8, 2018
Erlin (3-6) took the loss Saturday against the Reds, allowing seven runs on eight hits across three innings.
ANALYSIS
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Surrenders four earned
PSan Diego Padres
September 2, 2018
Erlin (3-5) allowed four earned runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out seven across 5.1 innings to take the loss Saturday against the Rockies.
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Allows four earned
PSan Diego Padres
August 26, 2018
Erlin (3-4) allowed four earned runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out three across 4.2 innings to take the loss Sunday against the Dodgers.
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Strikes out six in win
PSan Diego Padres
August 21, 2018
Erlin (3-3) struck out six and walked zero in a win over the Rockies on Tuesday, allowing three runs on five hits in five innings.
ANALYSIS
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