Jonathan Villar
Jonathan Villar
27-Year-Old Second Baseman2B
Baltimore Orioles
2019 Fantasy Outlook
After a 2016 breakout, a 2017 dropoff and a tumultuous first half with sporadic playing time, Villar surged again after a trade to Baltimore. Playing close to every day, the speedster hit eight home runs and stole 21 bases in 24 chances over the final two months, helping many owners to fantasy championships. In the past three years, he's tied for third with 120 steals, and he boasts a 9.2 BB% during that span. He hits a lot of balls on the ground but has legitimate raw power, as evidenced by Villar's hefty 18.9% HR/FB since 2015. This all comes with a 27.3 K%, but even with that hindrance, he's among the best bets to go 15-30 in the majors. Following their teardown last summer, Baltimore should hand Villar full-time work, and there's no downside to letting him run wild. Given the surging market for stolen bases, Villar will carry a high price, but at least it won't be as great as his pre-2017 cost. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $4.83 million contract with the Orioles in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Back in lineup
2BBaltimore Orioles
March 5, 2019
Villar (finger) is in the lineup for Tuesday's spring game against the Pirates, according to Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports.
ANALYSIS
Villar got the day off Monday after leaving the previous day's contest with a sore pinky, but he will be able to get back on the field after missing just the lone game. Villar will play shortstop and hit second in the Orioles' batting order.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+6%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+4%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+14%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+18%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .777 443 60 14 47 29 .269 .333 .445
Since 2016vs Right .733 1187 135 30 102 91 .263 .336 .397
2018vs Left .728 124 15 4 13 10 .267 .315 .414
2018vs Right .702 391 39 10 33 25 .257 .328 .374
2017vs Left .607 128 11 2 7 3 .214 .273 .333
2017vs Right .689 308 38 9 33 20 .252 .301 .388
2016vs Left .930 191 34 8 27 16 .309 .385 .545
2016vs Right .786 488 58 11 36 46 .276 .363 .422
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
Even Split
2018
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+25%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+11%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .744 821 102 19 67 56 .266 .336 .408
Since 2016Away .746 809 93 25 82 64 .264 .334 .412
2018Home .704 241 26 6 20 14 .260 .321 .384
2018Away .713 274 28 8 26 21 .259 .328 .385
2017Home .730 243 31 7 26 13 .262 .317 .413
2017Away .582 193 18 4 14 10 .213 .262 .320
2016Home .784 337 45 6 21 29 .273 .360 .423
2016Away .868 342 47 13 42 33 .297 .378 .490
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Stat Review
How does Jonathan Villar compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.30
 
BB Rate
8.0%
 
K Rate
26.8%
 
BABIP
.339
 
ISO
.124
 
AVG
.260
 
OBP
.325
 
SLG
.384
 
OPS
.709
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Big things were expected from Villar after he hit 19 home runs and stole 62 bases in 2016, and he routinely went in the early rounds of last year's drafts. However, his fantasy stock instead took a nosedive due to his inability to make contact early in the season, and then due to his inability to even see the field over the latter portion of the campaign. Villar still managed to hit 11 home runs and steal 23 bases in 2017 despite his struggles, but he is no longer the future at second base for the Brewers. In fact, he may not even open the 2018 with a defined role in Milwaukee. Villar's power and speed potential makes him an intriguing rebound candidate, but if he is unable to show better plate discipline early in the season and beyond, he'll likely face an uphill battle to claim an everyday role.
Villar broke out in 2016, as he not only led the major leagues in stolen bases with 62 (and caught stealing, with 18), but also posted a career best .826 OPS with 19 home runs while playing solid defense across the infield at shortstop, third base and second base. The Brewers acquired Travis Shaw over the offseason, and his presence combined with the callup of top prospect shortstop Orlando Arcia will lock Villar into the starting second baseman role for 2017. The Brewers ran wild in 2016, and there's little reason to believe Craig Counsell's philosophy will change drastically in one year, so expect another big stolen-base total from Villar. The biggest questions, however, pertain to the sustainability of his power production, and the significant improvement in his walk rate, which jumped to a career-best 11.6 percent last season. Most likely, he'll give some home runs back in 2017 after his HR/FB rate nearly doubled from 10.0 percent in 2015 to 19.6 percent last season.
Villar secured an Opening Day roster spot with the Astros after hitting .288 and displaying increased versatility on defense last spring, but he only made 53 appearances for the club and was limited to spot-start and pinch-running duties. Quite simply, the door never opened for regular playing time, as Luis Valbuena, Jed Lowrie and Marwin Gonzalez saw most of the at-bats behind stars Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. The 24-year-old did not allow that to slow him down, however, as he swiped 35 bases in 70 games with Triple-A Fresno. A November trade to Milwaukee cleared Villar's path considerably, he will likely serve primarily in a utility role so long as Jean Segura is in town.
Villar disappointed fantasy owners who drafted him for his 40-plus stolen base potential last season, as the Dominican native struggled offensively and swiped only 17 bags in 87 games with the Astros. By comparison, the 23-year-old shortstop had 18 steals in 54 games the year prior. He did hit seven home runs, but Houston eventually decided his .209/.267/.354 slash line and 18 errors at shortstop wasn't cutting it and turned to Marwin Gonzalez and Gregorio Petit to man the position. With uber-prospect Carlos Correa at least a year away from reaching the big leagues, Villar should get an opportunity to redeem himself this season, but he'll need to improve his fielding skills (.949), contact rate (70%) and cut down on his strikeouts (27.7%) in order for that happen.
Once the Astros realized that Ronny Cedeno wasn't cutting it as their starting shortstop, Villar was given an opportunity to show what he could do at the big league level. After displaying elite speed in the minors, the 22-year-old Dominican Republic native was extremely aggressive on the basepaths for Houston, swiping 18 bags in 54 games. He made some baserunning gaffes along the way (he was caught stealing eight times) and he didn't hit the ball particularly well (.243 batting average, 29.5 percent strikeout rate), but the switch-hitter showed good plate discipline (10 percent walk rate) while hitting from the leadoff and ninth spots in the batting order. With top prospect Carlos Correa still a few years away, Villar will be given an extended look in Houston this season. He should be a relatively cheap source of steals in 2014 drafts since he does not offer much outside of that category.
Villar was putting together a passable season at Double-A as a 21-year-old before deciding to punch a door in July, which caused him to miss most of the rest of the year. While some days Villar flashes his potential and gives you a glimpse of a future big league star, most days he looks pretty average. Villar improved his plate discipline somewhat from 2011, increasing the walks while decreasing the strikeouts, but he will have to do a lot more growing as he reaches the upper minors. Villar was probably the closest middle-infield prospect to the big leagues in the Houston system, but after missing so much time in 2012, a September callup is probably optimistic.
Villar continued to fail to live up to expectations again in 2011, hitting .241/.320/.396 with 34 stolen bases in 130 minor league games. If he learned some plate discipline, Villar could become someone that owners could count on to do a little bit of everything. Without that growth, his long-term future is probably best suited to role-player status. He's still just 20, and should start the year back in Double-A.
Villar came over to the Astros in the midseason deal that sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia. Villar is fast and athletic, but still very raw as a hitter. He will need plenty of time to develop, and bear in mind the Astros do not have a good track record with similar prospects. The steals alone will keep him on the fantasy radar, but he may never nail down a major league job if he can't rack up enough hits and draw more walks.
More Fantasy News
Not in Monday's lineup
2BBaltimore Orioles
Finger
March 4, 2019
Villar (finger) is not in the lineup for Monday's spring game against the Twins, according to Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports.
ANALYSIS
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Exits with sore pinkie
2BBaltimore Orioles
Finger
March 3, 2019
Villar was removed from Sunday's game against Detroit due to soreness in his pinkie finger, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports. He went 1-for-1 with a walk prior to exiting.
ANALYSIS
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Reaches deal with Orioles
2BBaltimore Orioles
January 11, 2019
Villar signed a one-year contract with the Orioles on Friday, avoiding arbitration, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports reports.
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Finishes campaign with two doubles
2BBaltimore Orioles
September 30, 2018
Villar went 2-for-4 with two doubles, one run scored and one stolen base during Sunday's win over Houston.
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Swipes another base Wednesday
2BBaltimore Orioles
September 26, 2018
Villar went 1-for-4 with a stolen base in Game 1 of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Red Sox.
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