Vince Velasquez
Vince Velasquez
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Last season was encouraging in some ways for Velasquez, even if his ERA dropped just 28 points to 4.85. He made just one trip to the disabled list, and that only happened due to a forearm contusion after he was struck by a line drive (and finished the play left-handed). He reached career highs in starts (30) and innings (146.2) while raising his strikeout rate to 25.6% and cutting his walk rate to 9.4%. With better BABIP and strand-rate luck, he could have posted an ERA more in line with his 3.75 FIP. Reasons for concern do remain, however. Over his last nine starts, Velasquez posted an ugly 8.45 ERA, suggesting that he may not be able to handle the workload that comes with a full season in the starting rotation. Relief risk remains for the righty. He could be moved to the bullpen at the start of the season should the Phillies spend big on the rotation this winter, or he could head there over the summer should his performance dictate a move. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $2.25 million contract with the Phillies in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Fans five for fifth win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 16, 2019
Velasquez (5-7) secured the win after giving up three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.1 innings Friday against the Padres.
ANALYSIS
Velasquez cruised through five scoreless innings to begin his night, and while the Padres struck for three runs in the sixth, his team was able to hold on for an 8-4 victory. The 27-year-old right-hander is now 3-2 over his last five starts, though he's held the opposition to three or fewer runs in each of those outings, so his record hasn't exactly dictated his performance of late.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-27%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .279 622 139 65 152 36 7 25
Since 2017vs Right .231 703 186 62 143 31 2 26
2019vs Left .254 159 38 14 36 8 2 7
2019vs Right .240 221 58 20 47 9 1 13
2018vs Left .288 310 69 30 79 19 4 13
2018vs Right .211 320 92 29 59 16 1 3
2017vs Left .287 153 32 21 37 9 1 5
2017vs Right .255 162 36 13 37 6 0 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-19%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-5%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-19%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-34%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 5.32 1.36 138.2 8 12 0 10.7 3.6 1.9
Since 2017Away 4.31 1.38 169.0 8 14 0 8.5 3.8 1.2
2019Home 4.22 1.19 32.0 1 2 0 10.1 2.8 2.3
2019Away 4.42 1.39 57.0 4 5 0 9.5 3.8 1.9
2018Home 5.40 1.29 68.1 6 5 0 11.3 3.8 1.4
2018Away 4.37 1.39 78.1 3 7 0 8.6 3.4 0.6
2017Home 6.10 1.62 38.1 1 5 0 10.1 3.8 2.3
2017Away 4.01 1.37 33.2 1 2 0 6.7 4.8 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Vince Velasquez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.82
 
K/9
9.7
 
BB/9
3.4
 
HR/9
2.0
 
Fastball
94.2 mph
 
ERA
4.35
 
WHIP
1.31
 
BABIP
.289
 
GB/FB
0.80
 
Left On Base
80.9%
 
Exit Velocity
90.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
11.6%
 
Spin Rate
2369 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
42.2%
 
Swinging Strike
12.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Vince Velasquez
FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown
Yesterday
Adam Zdroik recommends a Rays stack -- featuring Tommy Pham -- against Daniel Norris and the Tigers on Friday.
DraftKings MLB: Friday Picks
Yesterday
Chris Bennett likes Rays pitcher Charlie Morton’s matchup with lowly Detroit, whose offense fans 26.1 percent of the time against righties.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Lynn Joins the Elite
7 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as the Rangers' Lance Lynn is pitching as well as he has all season.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Picks
12 days ago
Christopher Olson likes the look of Tommy Pham and a Rays stack Monday against the Blue Jays.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: deGrom Days of August
14 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as two-starter Jacob deGrom is pitching as well as he has all season.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Velasquez endured a very disappointing 2017 season, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.13 in an injury-riddled campaign. He had looked in 2016 like a promising young fireballer who could become a star if he could lower his walk rate. Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his walk rate climbed from 3.1 BB/9 to 4.3, while his strikeout rate dropped from 10.4 K/9 to 8.5. Velasquez could be a good buy-low candidate, as he may be in line for a much better 2018 season if offseason surgery to address a circulation problem in his throwing hand returns him to his pre-2017 form. He's still just 25, and should put up strong strikeout numbers if healthy, even if his ERA remains high. That's a big "if," however, given his injury history. Think of Velasquez has a lottery ticket in deeper fantasy formats.
Velasquez won a rotation spot with a strong spring training and made a major impression in his second regular season start, striking out 16 in a complete game win over the Padres. In early June he went on the disabled list with a strained right biceps that initially looked like a serious issue, but ultimately only caused him to miss a few weeks of the season. He was shut down in early September, having thrown a career-high 136 innings between a rehab start and his starts in the majors. Velasquez throws a mid-90s fastball that tops out around 98 mph, which he complements with a curveball, changeup and slider. His 11.2 percent swinging strike rate ranks him among the better strikeout pitchers in baseball and gives him the potential to be a major fantasy asset. He does have some work to do on reducing the free passes, and he needs to utilize his defense a bit more to help keep his pitch count down and to get deeper into his starts.
Velasquez logged just 77 innings between the minors and Arizona Fall League in 2014 so he was limited to a swingman role in 2015 (27 appearances, 12 starts). A lat injury from that Fall League appearance pushed his season debut to early May and so he only logged 88 innings, meaning we still might not see a full starter's workload from the 24-year-old. However, a popular adage from the great Ron Shandler rings true with Velasquez: "Draft skills, not roles". Velasquez has the kind of talent that can make teams forget whatever "plan" they had and just use the best guy available once ready. Walks are the key issue, but his 62 percent first-pitch strike rate was actually a tick above average and will help him chisel into that 3.4 BB/9 if it holds. He's not a finished product, but two swing-and-miss pitches and a developing changeup that was given 60-grade upside when he was coming up make him very appealing. Further, he has a chance to earn a spot in the Phillies' rotation to start the year after coming over in the Ken Giles trade.
Velasquez has a long history of injuries that includes Tommy John surgery in 2010, so it was no big surprise when a groin injury cost him two months last season. When healthy, however, the 22-year-old right-hander is a standout pitcher in the Astros' system. He's moved along slowly thus far (in large part due to the injuries), but his first taste of Double-A appears likely this season after a strong 2014 pitching with the Gulf Coast League Astros and High-A Lancaster. Between the two affiliates, Velasquez went 7-5 with a 3.52 ERA and a remarkable 12.8 K/9 in 64 innings. With a low-90's fastball, plus changeup and improving curveball, he has mid-rotation potential in the big leagues if he can string together a few seasons of full health in the upper levels of the minors. His recent addition to the Astros' 40-man roster indicates he may be closer to the majors than we think.
Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Velasquez turned in a fine season pitching between Low-A Quad Cities (25 games, 16 starts) and High-A Lancaster (three starts). The 21-year-old right-hander posted excellent ratios (10.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9) to go along with a 9-6 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 124.2 innings. Velasquez appears likely to progress to Double-A, where he will look to improve his command (3.0 BB/9) and the quality of his offerings -- a low-90s fastball, curve and changeup.
More Fantasy News
Dealt seventh loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 11, 2019
Velasquez (4-7) took the loss Saturday against the Giants after giving up three runs on three hits over five innings. He struck out three and walked one.
ANALYSIS
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Picks up fourth win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 5, 2019
Velasquez (4-6) picked up the win against the Diamondbacks on Monday, giving up two earned runs on six hits over seven innings, striking out three and walking two as the Phillies bagged a 7-3 victory.
ANALYSIS
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Stuck with sixth loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 31, 2019
Velasquez (3-6) took the loss Wednesday, giving up two runs on four hits and three walks over five-plus innings while striking out six as the Phillies fell 5-1 to the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates in Detroit
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 24, 2019
Velasquez (3-5) picked up the win in Wednesday's 4-0 victory over the Tigers, giving up four hits and two walks over 5.2 scoreless innings while striking out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Remaining in starting rotation
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 19, 2019
Velasquez will make his next start Wednesday at Detroit, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
ANALYSIS
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