Vince Velasquez
Vince Velasquez
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Like many of his teammates on the Phillies' pitching staff, Velasquez took a step back in 2019. While his ERA hardly budged, his FIP took a big jump, rising from 3.75 to 5.21. His 25.2 K% was a near match for his 25.6% mark the season prior and his walk rate actually improved (from 9.4% to 8.3%), but his HR/9 more than doubled from 0.98 to 1.99. His poor performances saw him lose his rotation spot for a stretch, as he made 10 of his 33 appearances out of the bullpen. Velasquez's strikeout rate means he still stands out from the group of starters whose holds on their respective rotation spots are tenuous at best, and it's not impossible to envision him finally becoming good if he can cut the homer habit. Five years into his big-league career, though, it's tough to say why a breakout would come now if it hasn't come yet, so his price will be deservedly low during draft season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#509
ADP
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$Signed a one-year, $2.25 million contract with the Phillies in January of 2019.
Settles for no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 26, 2020
Velasquez allowed three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out six over 4.1 innings in Friday's loss to the Rays. He didn't factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
Velasquez held the Rays to one run over the first four innings, but he struggled early in the fourth inning prior to his removal. The right-hander finishes the abbreviated regular season with a 5.56 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, both of which are career-worst marks.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
72
Last 10 Games
72
Last 5 Games
80
How many pitches does Vince Velasquez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Vince Velasquez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-26%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-27%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .282 587 137 60 146 31 7 25
Since 2018vs Right .234 691 194 57 142 33 2 22
2020vs Left .311 54 14 9 14 3 0 2
2020vs Right .229 78 26 6 16 4 0 3
2019vs Left .266 223 54 21 53 9 3 10
2019vs Right .259 293 76 22 67 13 1 16
2018vs Left .288 310 69 30 79 19 4 13
2018vs Right .211 320 92 29 59 16 1 3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-48%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-19%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 4.97 1.29 130.1 9 7 0 10.9 3.5 1.7
Since 2018Away 4.90 1.45 163.1 8 14 0 9.5 3.6 1.3
2020Home 4.29 1.43 21.0 1 0 0 12.0 5.1 1.3
2020Away 8.31 1.73 8.2 0 1 0 12.5 3.1 2.1
2019Home 4.61 1.22 41.0 2 2 0 9.7 2.2 2.2
2019Away 5.07 1.48 76.1 5 6 0 10.1 3.9 1.9
2018Home 5.40 1.29 68.1 6 5 0 11.3 3.8 1.4
2018Away 4.37 1.39 78.1 3 7 0 8.6 3.4 0.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Vince Velasquez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.71
 
K/9
12.2
 
BB/9
4.5
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
93.8 mph
 
ERA
5.56
 
WHIP
1.56
 
BABIP
.383
 
GB/FB
1.31
 
Left On Base
69.6%
 
Exit Velocity
78.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.1%
 
Spin Rate
2285 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.9%
 
Swinging Strike
11.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Last season was encouraging in some ways for Velasquez, even if his ERA dropped just 28 points to 4.85. He made just one trip to the disabled list, and that only happened due to a forearm contusion after he was struck by a line drive (and finished the play left-handed). He reached career highs in starts (30) and innings (146.2) while raising his strikeout rate to 25.6% and cutting his walk rate to 9.4%. With better BABIP and strand-rate luck, he could have posted an ERA more in line with his 3.75 FIP. Reasons for concern do remain, however. Over his last nine starts, Velasquez posted an ugly 8.45 ERA, suggesting that he may not be able to handle the workload that comes with a full season in the starting rotation. Relief risk remains for the righty. He could be moved to the bullpen at the start of the season should the Phillies spend big on the rotation this winter, or he could head there over the summer should his performance dictate a move.
Velasquez endured a very disappointing 2017 season, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.13 in an injury-riddled campaign. He had looked in 2016 like a promising young fireballer who could become a star if he could lower his walk rate. Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his walk rate climbed from 3.1 BB/9 to 4.3, while his strikeout rate dropped from 10.4 K/9 to 8.5. Velasquez could be a good buy-low candidate, as he may be in line for a much better 2018 season if offseason surgery to address a circulation problem in his throwing hand returns him to his pre-2017 form. He's still just 25, and should put up strong strikeout numbers if healthy, even if his ERA remains high. That's a big "if," however, given his injury history. Think of Velasquez has a lottery ticket in deeper fantasy formats.
Velasquez won a rotation spot with a strong spring training and made a major impression in his second regular season start, striking out 16 in a complete game win over the Padres. In early June he went on the disabled list with a strained right biceps that initially looked like a serious issue, but ultimately only caused him to miss a few weeks of the season. He was shut down in early September, having thrown a career-high 136 innings between a rehab start and his starts in the majors. Velasquez throws a mid-90s fastball that tops out around 98 mph, which he complements with a curveball, changeup and slider. His 11.2 percent swinging strike rate ranks him among the better strikeout pitchers in baseball and gives him the potential to be a major fantasy asset. He does have some work to do on reducing the free passes, and he needs to utilize his defense a bit more to help keep his pitch count down and to get deeper into his starts.
Velasquez logged just 77 innings between the minors and Arizona Fall League in 2014 so he was limited to a swingman role in 2015 (27 appearances, 12 starts). A lat injury from that Fall League appearance pushed his season debut to early May and so he only logged 88 innings, meaning we still might not see a full starter's workload from the 24-year-old. However, a popular adage from the great Ron Shandler rings true with Velasquez: "Draft skills, not roles". Velasquez has the kind of talent that can make teams forget whatever "plan" they had and just use the best guy available once ready. Walks are the key issue, but his 62 percent first-pitch strike rate was actually a tick above average and will help him chisel into that 3.4 BB/9 if it holds. He's not a finished product, but two swing-and-miss pitches and a developing changeup that was given 60-grade upside when he was coming up make him very appealing. Further, he has a chance to earn a spot in the Phillies' rotation to start the year after coming over in the Ken Giles trade.
Velasquez has a long history of injuries that includes Tommy John surgery in 2010, so it was no big surprise when a groin injury cost him two months last season. When healthy, however, the 22-year-old right-hander is a standout pitcher in the Astros' system. He's moved along slowly thus far (in large part due to the injuries), but his first taste of Double-A appears likely this season after a strong 2014 pitching with the Gulf Coast League Astros and High-A Lancaster. Between the two affiliates, Velasquez went 7-5 with a 3.52 ERA and a remarkable 12.8 K/9 in 64 innings. With a low-90's fastball, plus changeup and improving curveball, he has mid-rotation potential in the big leagues if he can string together a few seasons of full health in the upper levels of the minors. His recent addition to the Astros' 40-man roster indicates he may be closer to the majors than we think.
Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Velasquez turned in a fine season pitching between Low-A Quad Cities (25 games, 16 starts) and High-A Lancaster (three starts). The 21-year-old right-hander posted excellent ratios (10.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9) to go along with a 9-6 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 124.2 innings. Velasquez appears likely to progress to Double-A, where he will look to improve his command (3.0 BB/9) and the quality of his offerings -- a low-90s fastball, curve and changeup.
More Fantasy News
Picks up first win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 19, 2020
Velasquez (1-1) struck out six and earned the win Saturday against the Blue Jays after giving up one run on two hits and three walks over six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles in loss to Marlins
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 14, 2020
Velasquez (0-1) took the loss to the Marlins on Monday, allowing four runs on seven hits and one walk across 3.2 innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Picking up another start Monday
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 13, 2020
Velasquez is slated to start Monday's game against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in spot start
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 8, 2020
Velasquez didn't factor into the decision during a 5-2 loss to the Red Sox in the second game of Tuesday's doubleheader, allowing two runs on seven hits over five innings. He struck out a season-high nine without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Working as long reliever for now
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 25, 2020
Velasquez has officially been moved to the bullpen going forward, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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