Vince Velasquez
Vince Velasquez
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Velasquez endured a very disappointing 2017 season, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.13 in an injury-riddled campaign. He had looked in 2016 like a promising young fireballer who could become a star if he could lower his walk rate. Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his walk rate climbed from 3.1 BB/9 to 4.3, while his strikeout rate dropped from 10.4 K/9 to 8.5. Velasquez could be a good buy-low candidate, as he may be in line for a much better 2018 season if offseason surgery to address a circulation problem in his throwing hand returns him to his pre-2017 form. He's still just 25, and should put up strong strikeout numbers if healthy, even if his ERA remains high. That's a big "if," however, given his injury history. Think of Velasquez has a lottery ticket in deeper fantasy formats. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Phillies in March of 2018.
Exits early Thursday
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 20, 2018
Velasquez didn't factor into the decision in Thursday's contest against the Braves. He allowed three earned runs, five hits and one walk over three innings while striking out three.
ANALYSIS
Velasquez was provided the lead on two separate occasions Thursday, but he ended up blowing those leads and was pulled after only three innings of work. He has now lasted less than five innings in three consecutive starts, and he's allowed multiple earned runs in seven of his last eight outings. The strikeout numbers are encouraging (10.0 K/9 in 2018), but Velasquez now owns a 4.59 ERA over 143 innings this season. He'll look to improve on his recent performances in his next start, which is currently scheduled for Tuesday against the Rockies.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-26%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-6%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .276 722 175 75 174 33 6 28
Since 2016vs Right .234 738 201 60 154 38 1 23
2018vs Left .275 290 68 28 71 17 4 12
2018vs Right .204 304 88 28 54 16 1 3
2017vs Left .287 153 32 21 37 9 1 5
2017vs Right .255 162 36 13 37 6 0 10
2016vs Left .270 279 75 26 66 7 1 11
2016vs Right .255 272 77 19 63 16 0 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-5%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-33%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-34%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-46%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 4.60 1.26 172.1 11 13 0 11.2 3.4 1.7
Since 2016Away 4.38 1.44 170.2 8 11 0 8.5 3.6 1.0
2018Home 5.40 1.29 68.1 6 5 0 11.3 3.8 1.4
2018Away 3.64 1.30 71.2 3 6 0 8.8 3.4 0.5
2017Home 6.10 1.62 38.1 1 5 0 10.1 3.8 2.3
2017Away 4.01 1.37 33.2 1 2 0 6.7 4.8 1.3
2016Home 2.88 1.04 65.2 4 3 0 11.6 2.9 1.5
2016Away 5.37 1.62 65.1 4 3 0 9.2 3.3 1.4
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Stat Review
How does Vince Velasquez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
2.79
 
K/9
10.0
 
BB/9
3.6
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
93.9 mph
 
ERA
4.50
 
WHIP
1.29
 
BABIP
.315
 
GB/FB
1.08
 
Strand %
66.9%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
Velasquez won a rotation spot with a strong spring training and made a major impression in his second regular season start, striking out 16 in a complete game win over the Padres. In early June he went on the disabled list with a strained right biceps that initially looked like a serious issue, but ultimately only caused him to miss a few weeks of the season. He was shut down in early September, having thrown a career-high 136 innings between a rehab start and his starts in the majors. Velasquez throws a mid-90s fastball that tops out around 98 mph, which he complements with a curveball, changeup and slider. His 11.2 percent swinging strike rate ranks him among the better strikeout pitchers in baseball and gives him the potential to be a major fantasy asset. He does have some work to do on reducing the free passes, and he needs to utilize his defense a bit more to help keep his pitch count down and to get deeper into his starts.
Velasquez logged just 77 innings between the minors and Arizona Fall League in 2014 so he was limited to a swingman role in 2015 (27 appearances, 12 starts). A lat injury from that Fall League appearance pushed his season debut to early May and so he only logged 88 innings, meaning we still might not see a full starter's workload from the 24-year-old. However, a popular adage from the great Ron Shandler rings true with Velasquez: "Draft skills, not roles". Velasquez has the kind of talent that can make teams forget whatever "plan" they had and just use the best guy available once ready. Walks are the key issue, but his 62 percent first-pitch strike rate was actually a tick above average and will help him chisel into that 3.4 BB/9 if it holds. He's not a finished product, but two swing-and-miss pitches and a developing changeup that was given 60-grade upside when he was coming up make him very appealing. Further, he has a chance to earn a spot in the Phillies' rotation to start the year after coming over in the Ken Giles trade.
Velasquez has a long history of injuries that includes Tommy John surgery in 2010, so it was no big surprise when a groin injury cost him two months last season. When healthy, however, the 22-year-old right-hander is a standout pitcher in the Astros' system. He's moved along slowly thus far (in large part due to the injuries), but his first taste of Double-A appears likely this season after a strong 2014 pitching with the Gulf Coast League Astros and High-A Lancaster. Between the two affiliates, Velasquez went 7-5 with a 3.52 ERA and a remarkable 12.8 K/9 in 64 innings. With a low-90's fastball, plus changeup and improving curveball, he has mid-rotation potential in the big leagues if he can string together a few seasons of full health in the upper levels of the minors. His recent addition to the Astros' 40-man roster indicates he may be closer to the majors than we think.
Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Velasquez turned in a fine season pitching between Low-A Quad Cities (25 games, 16 starts) and High-A Lancaster (three starts). The 21-year-old right-hander posted excellent ratios (10.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9) to go along with a 9-6 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 124.2 innings. Velasquez appears likely to progress to Double-A, where he will look to improve his command (3.0 BB/9) and the quality of his offerings -- a low-90s fastball, curve and changeup.
More Fantasy News
Chased early by Marlins
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 15, 2018
Velasquez didn't factor into the decision in Saturday's 5-4 win over the Marlins, giving up four runs on four hits and a walk over two innings while striking out four.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged with loss vs. Mets
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 9, 2018
Velasquez (9-11) surrendered five runs on seven hits and one walk, striking out four over four innings while taking the loss Sunday against New York.
ANALYSIS
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Fans six in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 3, 2018
Velasquez (9-10) took the loss Monday against the Marlins, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk across five innings. He struck out six.
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Next start pushed to Monday
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 29, 2018
Manager Gabe Kapler said Velasquez will have his next start pushed back to Monday against the Marlins, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic reports.
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Fans six, notches ninth victory
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 26, 2018
Velasquez (9-9) allowed two runs on three hits and three walks while striking out six over five innings as he secured the win Sunday against Toronto.
ANALYSIS
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