Vince Velasquez
Vince Velasquez
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Velasquez was more or less the same guy he's always been last season, showing flashes of promise at times but ultimately not pitching well enough to stick in the rotation for the entirety of the campaign. A change in pitching coach and some strong showings in summer camp gave reason to believe he could finally be turning the corner, but he wound up posting a 5.56 ERA in seven starts and a pair of relief appearances. To be fair to the 28-year-old righty, his 4.16 FIP and 4.07 xFIP painted a much more positive picture, but he's routinely failed to match his underlying numbers over the course of his six-year career. He did produce a career-best 29.9 K%, but that was offset by a career-worst 11.0 BB% and a low 39.8% groundball rate. There's still at least something here with Velasquez, but it might be borderline delusional at this point to think that next year will be the year things finally click. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#561
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Padres in September of 2021.
Takes loss in Padres debut
PSan Diego Padres
September 17, 2021
Velasquez (3-7) suffered the loss against St. Louis on Friday, allowing four runs on four hits and no walks while striking out four over four innings.
ANALYSIS
The veteran hurler was called up to the big club earlier Friday after signing with San Diego on Wednesday. He gave up three runs -- including two on a Tyler O'Neill home run -- in his first inning of work and served up a solo shot to Dylan Carlson in the fourth. There was some rust to be expected as Velasquez's start was his first in the majors since July 30, but it was nonetheless a disappointing debut given San Diego's slipping grasp on a playoff spot. Velasquez figures to get another start with Blake Snell (groin) currently on the injured list, and he's lined up to face San Francisco at home next week.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
70
Last 10 Games
75
Last 5 Games
59
How many pitches does Vince Velasquez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Vince Velasquez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-33%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-24%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .286 438 103 50 110 19 7 18
Since 2019vs Right .236 609 162 55 126 31 1 32
2021vs Left .305 151 33 19 40 7 4 6
2021vs Right .204 226 56 26 40 13 0 13
2020vs Left .315 64 16 10 17 3 0 2
2020vs Right .238 90 30 7 19 5 0 3
2019vs Left .266 223 54 21 53 9 3 10
2019vs Right .259 293 76 22 67 13 1 16
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 4.73 1.28 106.2 5 4 0 10.2 3.5 1.6
Since 2019Away 6.01 1.57 130.1 6 12 0 9.9 4.4 2.1
2021Home 5.04 1.28 44.2 2 2 0 9.9 4.0 1.2
2021Away 7.24 1.66 41.0 1 5 0 8.8 5.5 2.9
2020Home 4.29 1.43 21.0 1 0 0 12.0 5.1 1.3
2020Away 7.62 1.77 13.0 0 1 0 12.5 3.5 1.4
2019Home 4.61 1.22 41.0 2 2 0 9.7 2.2 2.2
2019Away 5.07 1.48 76.1 5 6 0 10.1 3.9 1.9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Vince Velasquez compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.98
 
K/9
9.4
 
BB/9
4.7
 
HR/9
2.0
 
Fastball
93.1 mph
 
ERA
6.09
 
WHIP
1.46
 
BABIP
.286
 
GB/FB
0.79
 
Left On Base
67.1%
 
Exit Velocity
82.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.5%
 
Spin Rate
2245 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.3%
 
Swinging Strike
11.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Like many of his teammates on the Phillies' pitching staff, Velasquez took a step back in 2019. While his ERA hardly budged, his FIP took a big jump, rising from 3.75 to 5.21. His 25.2 K% was a near match for his 25.6% mark the season prior and his walk rate actually improved (from 9.4% to 8.3%), but his HR/9 more than doubled from 0.98 to 1.99. His poor performances saw him lose his rotation spot for a stretch, as he made 10 of his 33 appearances out of the bullpen. Velasquez's strikeout rate means he still stands out from the group of starters whose holds on their respective rotation spots are tenuous at best, and it's not impossible to envision him finally becoming good if he can cut the homer habit. Five years into his big-league career, though, it's tough to say why a breakout would come now if it hasn't come yet, so his price will be deservedly low during draft season.
Last season was encouraging in some ways for Velasquez, even if his ERA dropped just 28 points to 4.85. He made just one trip to the disabled list, and that only happened due to a forearm contusion after he was struck by a line drive (and finished the play left-handed). He reached career highs in starts (30) and innings (146.2) while raising his strikeout rate to 25.6% and cutting his walk rate to 9.4%. With better BABIP and strand-rate luck, he could have posted an ERA more in line with his 3.75 FIP. Reasons for concern do remain, however. Over his last nine starts, Velasquez posted an ugly 8.45 ERA, suggesting that he may not be able to handle the workload that comes with a full season in the starting rotation. Relief risk remains for the righty. He could be moved to the bullpen at the start of the season should the Phillies spend big on the rotation this winter, or he could head there over the summer should his performance dictate a move.
Velasquez endured a very disappointing 2017 season, which saw his ERA balloon to 5.13 in an injury-riddled campaign. He had looked in 2016 like a promising young fireballer who could become a star if he could lower his walk rate. Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his walk rate climbed from 3.1 BB/9 to 4.3, while his strikeout rate dropped from 10.4 K/9 to 8.5. Velasquez could be a good buy-low candidate, as he may be in line for a much better 2018 season if offseason surgery to address a circulation problem in his throwing hand returns him to his pre-2017 form. He's still just 25, and should put up strong strikeout numbers if healthy, even if his ERA remains high. That's a big "if," however, given his injury history. Think of Velasquez has a lottery ticket in deeper fantasy formats.
Velasquez won a rotation spot with a strong spring training and made a major impression in his second regular season start, striking out 16 in a complete game win over the Padres. In early June he went on the disabled list with a strained right biceps that initially looked like a serious issue, but ultimately only caused him to miss a few weeks of the season. He was shut down in early September, having thrown a career-high 136 innings between a rehab start and his starts in the majors. Velasquez throws a mid-90s fastball that tops out around 98 mph, which he complements with a curveball, changeup and slider. His 11.2 percent swinging strike rate ranks him among the better strikeout pitchers in baseball and gives him the potential to be a major fantasy asset. He does have some work to do on reducing the free passes, and he needs to utilize his defense a bit more to help keep his pitch count down and to get deeper into his starts.
Velasquez logged just 77 innings between the minors and Arizona Fall League in 2014 so he was limited to a swingman role in 2015 (27 appearances, 12 starts). A lat injury from that Fall League appearance pushed his season debut to early May and so he only logged 88 innings, meaning we still might not see a full starter's workload from the 24-year-old. However, a popular adage from the great Ron Shandler rings true with Velasquez: "Draft skills, not roles". Velasquez has the kind of talent that can make teams forget whatever "plan" they had and just use the best guy available once ready. Walks are the key issue, but his 62 percent first-pitch strike rate was actually a tick above average and will help him chisel into that 3.4 BB/9 if it holds. He's not a finished product, but two swing-and-miss pitches and a developing changeup that was given 60-grade upside when he was coming up make him very appealing. Further, he has a chance to earn a spot in the Phillies' rotation to start the year after coming over in the Ken Giles trade.
Velasquez has a long history of injuries that includes Tommy John surgery in 2010, so it was no big surprise when a groin injury cost him two months last season. When healthy, however, the 22-year-old right-hander is a standout pitcher in the Astros' system. He's moved along slowly thus far (in large part due to the injuries), but his first taste of Double-A appears likely this season after a strong 2014 pitching with the Gulf Coast League Astros and High-A Lancaster. Between the two affiliates, Velasquez went 7-5 with a 3.52 ERA and a remarkable 12.8 K/9 in 64 innings. With a low-90's fastball, plus changeup and improving curveball, he has mid-rotation potential in the big leagues if he can string together a few seasons of full health in the upper levels of the minors. His recent addition to the Astros' 40-man roster indicates he may be closer to the majors than we think.
Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, Velasquez turned in a fine season pitching between Low-A Quad Cities (25 games, 16 starts) and High-A Lancaster (three starts). The 21-year-old right-hander posted excellent ratios (10.3 K/9, 0.6 HR/9) to go along with a 9-6 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 124.2 innings. Velasquez appears likely to progress to Double-A, where he will look to improve his command (3.0 BB/9) and the quality of his offerings -- a low-90s fastball, curve and changeup.
More Fantasy News
Recalled to start Friday
PSan Diego Padres
September 17, 2021
Velasquez was selected from Triple-A El Paso to start Friday's game against the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Joining San Diego
PSan Diego Padres
Finger
September 15, 2021
Velasquez (finger) signed a minor-league contract with the Padres on Wednesday and is expected to be added to the 28-man active roster to start Friday's series opener against the Cardinals in St. Louis.
ANALYSIS
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Cut loose by Phillies
PFree Agent
Finger
September 14, 2021
Velasquez (finger) was released by the Phillies on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Designated for assignment
PPhiladelphia Phillies
Finger
September 11, 2021
Velasquez (finger) was designated for assignment Saturday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Preparing for rehab assignment
PPhiladelphia Phillies
Finger
August 16, 2021
Velasquez (finger) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment at Low-A Clearwater on Tuesday, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
ANALYSIS
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