Robbie Ray
Robbie Ray
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Toronto Blue Jays
2021 Fantasy Outlook
If you came here looking for a case to draft Ray, you've come to the wrong place. Simply put, there is nothing to hang your hat on here. Ray made 12 appearances (11 starts) between Arizona and Toronto last season and went 2-5 with a 6.62 ERA. The lefty gained a tick of velocity but it did not matter; in fact, Ray's already-poor control only worsened, with his walk rate reaching a truly disastrous level at 17.9%. His struggles with the long ball only got worse as Ray served up 2.26 HR/9. He can still get his strikeouts around all the walks and homers, but it's not enough to salvage his fantasy value. The damage he's capable of doing to the ratio categories makes him a dangerous pitcher to have in your active lineup -- you could be left digging out of the hole for weeks. If you have to pick him up to stream him at some point, Godspeed. Try your best not to get to that point. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#301
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the Blue Jays in November of 2020.
Stuck with loss No. 6
PToronto Blue Jays
September 21, 2021
Ray (12-6) allowed three runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out five over 4.2 innings Monday as he took the loss to the Rays.
ANALYSIS
Things were going smoothly for Ray until the fifth inning when he allowed a three-run home run to Yandy Diaz to give the Rays a 3-2 lead. Ray stayed in for two more batters after the long ball and then was pulled after surrendering a double to Randy Arozerena at 97 pitches. It was the second time Ray's failed to reach five innings over his last three starts but it was just his first loss since July 21. The 2021 Cy Young candidate now has a 2.72 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 238:45 K:BB over 182 innings and will have a good opportunity to bounce back against the Twins over the weekend.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
98
Last 10 Games
101
Last 5 Games
100
How many pitches does Robbie Ray generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Robbie Ray generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-27%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .202 365 116 24 68 16 2 12
Since 2019vs Right .235 1358 425 151 278 61 6 60
2021vs Left .190 133 43 7 24 6 0 5
2021vs Right .217 592 195 39 119 24 3 24
2020vs Left .207 64 21 6 12 1 0 3
2020vs Right .283 187 47 39 41 13 0 10
2019vs Left .209 168 52 11 32 9 2 4
2019vs Right .241 579 183 73 118 24 3 26
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-31%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-43%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.29 1.16 202.2 16 7 0 11.6 3.6 1.4
Since 2019Away 4.51 1.39 205.1 10 12 0 12.2 4.1 1.8
2021Home 2.28 0.92 102.2 8 3 0 11.2 1.9 1.1
2021Away 3.29 1.20 79.1 4 3 0 12.5 2.7 1.8
2020Home 4.88 1.66 27.2 2 2 0 10.4 8.5 1.6
2020Away 8.63 2.17 24.0 0 3 0 13.5 7.1 3.0
2019Home 4.11 1.33 72.1 6 2 0 12.7 4.1 1.7
2019Away 4.50 1.35 102.0 6 6 0 11.7 4.5 1.4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Robbie Ray compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.29
 
K/9
11.8
 
BB/9
2.2
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
94.9 mph
 
ERA
2.72
 
WHIP
1.03
 
BABIP
.293
 
GB/FB
1.04
 
Left On Base
89.6%
 
Exit Velocity
82.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.1%
 
Spin Rate
2230 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
23.6%
 
Swinging Strike
16.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Robbie Ray
MLB Barometer: 2021 All-Risers Team
Yesterday
Erik Halterman uses this week’s column to talk about players who have impressed him the most this year, including A’s first baseman Matt Olson.
MLB Betting: Monday Best Bets
Yesterday
Michael Rathburn digs in for Monday's MLB slate where Toronto's Robbie Ray is set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown
Yesterday
Mike Barner recommends exploring a Brewers bat stack Monday against St. Louis.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Good News, Bad News?
3 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching, which offers plenty of double-dippers but only a few quality arms like Robbie Ray with two starts.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Pitch inefficiency continues to haunt Ray. His 33 starts tied for the eighth most, but 174.1 innings checked in as 44th most. While an 11.2 BB% in tandem with a 31.5 K% contributed to high pitch counts, a 1.55 HR/9 also led to him hitting the showers early. Ray fanned double-digit hitters seven times, including in his last two starts of the season. However, he also issued at least four free passes 10 times with another 10 allowing multiple homers. Of slight concern is Ray's velocity has dipped for two straight seasons. Still just 28 years old, there's a chance Ray's command and control improve, but if they do not, a further decline could lower strikeouts, his primary fantasy asset. There's no harbinger of a change. Until Ray demonstrates consistently better control and command, he is what he is -- a plus for strikeouts but a big ratio risk, best streamed in favorable matchups.
Ray's season was shortened by injury. He made only 24 starts and fell well short of earning what many fantasy owners invested in him. His 3.93 ERA was a near-perfect settlement between his inflated 4.90 ERA in 2016 and his fortunate 2.89 ERA in 2017. It could have been much better with more credence to the times-through-the-order penalty. Ray's ERA the first time through a lineup was 2.81 and 2.59 the second time through, but ballooned to 9.13 thereafter as 11 of his 19 home runs allowed came that third time through. This has long been a problem for Ray, but one he was able to keep at bay in 2017 for most of the season. Ray's 2018 was a reminder that one season in a new direction does not mean a problem is resolved. He still gets strikeouts late in the game, but his command falters, so his misses become extra-base hits more often than not. He is a three-pitch guy with two strong breaking balls, but a quicker hook would help him in 2019.
2016 Robbie Ray was not as bad as his win-loss record and ERA. Conversely, he was not as good as his 2017 win-loss record and ERA either. The book on Ray has been: he is going to get a ton of strikeouts (12.1 K/9 last season), he is going to struggle with his command (3.9 BB/9) and he'll serve up some homers (1.28 HR/9). The difference between 2016 and 2017 was in his left-on-base percentage, as he stranded 68.7 percent of runners in 2016 but jumped that rate up to 84.5 percent in 2017. That latter rate is what power relievers do and starters struggle to eclipse 80 percent in consecutive seasons. He also avoided the Times Through The Order (TTOP) penalty; after allowing 49 percent of his 2016 earned runs when he was allowed to face batters for a third time, that number fell to 26 percent this past season. Expect the three truisms to continue for the most part, although with the new humidor at Chase Field, Ray should be able to cut down on the long balls.
If fantasy baseball pitchers were measured just in terms of strikeout rate, Ray might be among the first arms taken in drafts. He finished last season with an 11.3 K/9, which ranked second in the majors. Ray struck out 10 or more batters four times. Ray often racked up the strikeouts only to surround them with mediocre overall stats. Walks have been a big part of the issue. Ray walked 3.7 hitters per nine innings last season, which is in line with his career 3.6 BB/9. Ray's propensity for issuing free passes offsets his ability to miss bats and helps explain his 1.45 career WHIP. If -- and this is a big if -- Ray could cut down on the walks, he'd likely take off and post stellar fantasy numbers. Even if he does not improve upon last season's ratios, the strikeouts alone make him a solid middle-round investment in mixed leagues, and he should be particularly appealing for owners looking to supplement a low-ratios/middling-strikeouts starter taken ahead of him in drafts.
Though his win-loss numbers didn’t show it, Ray put together a solid 2015 for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 119 batters and compiled a 3.52 ERA (3.53 FIP) across 127.2 innings, and according to his 1.7 WAR, he was second the second best pitcher on the team, trailing only closer Brad Ziegler. It was a marked improvement from 2014, when Ray posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games (six starts) for Detroit. Ray could still probably stand to improve his control - he walked 3.5 batters per nine innings in 2015, which matched his 2014 rate. While he didn’t join the rotation for good until June last year, Ray should be a staple in the D-Backs rotation at the outset of 2016. However, this is a team that has cycled through rotation arms with frequency over the past couple seasons, so if Ray struggles there will be another middling option waiting to take his place.
The Tigers were high enough on Ray to make him the key piece in the Doug Fister trade prior to the 2014 season. Unfortunately, Ray's lone season in the Tigers' organization was a rough one. The 23-year-old lefty split time between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit. In 20 appearances for the Mud Hens, Ray went 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 75:44 K:BB ratio in 100.1 innings. His time in Detroit was even bumpier, but on the plus side, Ray did impress in the Arizona Fall League, allowing three earned runs and striking out 12 in 11 innings. Although it was a disappointing year, it was Ray's first taste of Triple-A and major league ball, and with a fastball that touches 93 mph, a changeup and an improving slider, there's reason for optimism heading into his first year with Arizona. Harnessing his control is the biggest obstacle Ray needs to hurdle before the start of the regular season. If Ray can nab the final spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation, he'll garner some interest in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.
Ray broke through at High-A last year and held his own as a 21-year-old after a promotion to Double-A, and the Nationals wasted no time cashing in his new-found prospect status by dealing him for Doug Fister. Ray's control remains a work in progress, and given the Tigers' recent failures to develop left-handers with similar profiles (Exhibit A: Andrew Oliver) he can hardly be considered can't-miss. However, if Ray does build on last year's success, a 2015 major league debut seems likely.
More Fantasy News
Fans 13 in 12th win
PToronto Blue Jays
September 15, 2021
Ray (12-5) picked up the win in Wednesday's 6-3 victory over the Rays, allowing one run on four hits over seven innings. He struck out 13 without walking a batter.
ANALYSIS
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Dominant streak continues
PToronto Blue Jays
September 5, 2021
Ray (11-5) allowed one hit and three walks over 6.2 scoreless innings while striking out 10 to earn the win over Oakland on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Fans 10 in 10th win
PToronto Blue Jays
August 31, 2021
Ray (10-5) picked up the win in Monday's 7-3 victory over the Orioles, allowing two runs on four hits and a walk over seven innings. He struck out 10.
ANALYSIS
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Stellar again Wednesday
PToronto Blue Jays
August 25, 2021
Ray allowed one run on five hits, a walk and a hit batter while striking out a season-high 14 in seven innings versus the White Sox on Wednesday. He did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Twirls gem in no-decision
PToronto Blue Jays
August 20, 2021
Ray allowed a run on five hits and no walks while striking out 11 over eight innings in a no-decision versus Detroit on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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