Robbie Ray

30-Year-Old PitcherSP

Seattle Mariners

2021 Stats

W-L

13-7

ERA

2.84

WHIP

1.04

248

2022 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2022 Fantasy Outlook

A large majority of the baseball world missed on Ray last season, us included. Statistically speaking, there was no case for drafting Ray heading into 2021. He had posted a double-digit walk rate in four consecutive seasons, including a 17.9 BB% during the shortened 2020 campaign, he struggled with homers and his WHIP had been north of 1.33 in all but one of his big-league seasons. However, the lefty provided a valuable reminder that these players are human beings and not static numbers on a spreadsheet. After joining the Blue Jays on a one-year, $8 million deal, Ray went to work on his mechanics, reverting to an old three-quarters arm slot he had used in the past. His adjustments bore immediate fruit in spring training and Ray's dominance continued into the regular season, culminating in an improbable AL Cy Young Award. He was more confident attacking hitters and shaved more than 10 percentage points off his walk rate. The Mariners bought high in the form of a five-year, $115 million contract. You'll have to buy high too if you want him on your fantasy roster this season. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 215

DOB 10/1/1991

Born Brentwood, TN

College None

Drafted 12th Rd 2010 WAS

Headed to Seattle

PSeattle Mariners

November 29, 2021

Ray signed a five-year, $115 million contract with the Mariners on Monday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Ray won the 2021 AL Cy Young Award after he posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 193.1 innings across 32 starts during his first full season with the Blue Jays. The 30-year-old will now be rewarded with a long-term deal that includes an opt-out clause following the 2024 season.

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Pitching Stats

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2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

101

Last 5 Games

100

How many pitches does Robbie Ray generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Robbie Ray generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2019

-15%

BAA vs LHP

2021

-13%

BAA vs LHP

2020

-27%

BAA vs LHP

2019

-13%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2019vs Left	.200	373	117	24	69	16	2	13
Since 2019vs Right	.234	1398	434	158	284	62	6	63
2021vs Left	.187	141	44	7	25	6	0	6
2021vs Right	.216	632	204	46	125	25	3	27
2020vs Left	.207	64	21	6	12	1	0	3
2020vs Right	.283	187	47	39	41	13	0	10
2019vs Left	.209	168	52	11	32	9	2	4
2019vs Right	.241	579	183	73	118	24	3	26
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2019

-23%

ERA at Home

2021

-18%

ERA at Home

2020

-43%

ERA at Home

2019

-9%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2019Home	3.42	1.17	208.0	16	8	0	11.5	3.6	1.6
Since 2019Away	4.43	1.38	211.1	11	12	0	12.1	4.2	1.7
2021Home	2.58	0.94	108.0	8	4	0	11.0	2.1	1.4
2021Away	3.16	1.20	85.1	5	3	0	12.2	3.0	1.7
2020Home	4.88	1.66	27.2	2	2	0	10.4	8.5	1.6
2020Away	8.63	2.17	24.0	0	3	0	13.5	7.1	3.0
2019Home	4.11	1.33	72.1	6	2	0	12.7	4.1	1.7
2019Away	4.50	1.35	102.0	6	6	0	11.7	4.5	1.4
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Robbie Ray compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

4.77

K/9

11.5

BB/9

2.4

HR/9

1.5

Fastball

94.8 mph

ERA

2.84

WHIP

1.04

BABIP

.282

GB/FB

0.96

Left On Base

89.9%

Exit Velocity

82.9 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.3%

Spin Rate

2232 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

24.0%

Swinging Strike

16.1%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Mariners Depth Chart

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Robbie Ray

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6 days ago

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26 days ago

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

If you came here looking for a case to draft Ray, you've come to the wrong place. Simply put, there is nothing to hang your hat on here. Ray made 12 appearances (11 starts) between Arizona and Toronto last season and went 2-5 with a 6.62 ERA. The lefty gained a tick of velocity but it did not matter; in fact, Ray's already-poor control only worsened, with his walk rate reaching a truly disastrous level at 17.9%. His struggles with the long ball only got worse as Ray served up 2.26 HR/9. He can still get his strikeouts around all the walks and homers, but it's not enough to salvage his fantasy value. The damage he's capable of doing to the ratio categories makes him a dangerous pitcher to have in your active lineup -- you could be left digging out of the hole for weeks. If you have to pick him up to stream him at some point, Godspeed. Try your best not to get to that point.

Pitch inefficiency continues to haunt Ray. His 33 starts tied for the eighth most, but 174.1 innings checked in as 44th most. While an 11.2 BB% in tandem with a 31.5 K% contributed to high pitch counts, a 1.55 HR/9 also led to him hitting the showers early. Ray fanned double-digit hitters seven times, including in his last two starts of the season. However, he also issued at least four free passes 10 times with another 10 allowing multiple homers. Of slight concern is Ray's velocity has dipped for two straight seasons. Still just 28 years old, there's a chance Ray's command and control improve, but if they do not, a further decline could lower strikeouts, his primary fantasy asset. There's no harbinger of a change. Until Ray demonstrates consistently better control and command, he is what he is -- a plus for strikeouts but a big ratio risk, best streamed in favorable matchups.

Ray's season was shortened by injury. He made only 24 starts and fell well short of earning what many fantasy owners invested in him. His 3.93 ERA was a near-perfect settlement between his inflated 4.90 ERA in 2016 and his fortunate 2.89 ERA in 2017. It could have been much better with more credence to the times-through-the-order penalty. Ray's ERA the first time through a lineup was 2.81 and 2.59 the second time through, but ballooned to 9.13 thereafter as 11 of his 19 home runs allowed came that third time through. This has long been a problem for Ray, but one he was able to keep at bay in 2017 for most of the season. Ray's 2018 was a reminder that one season in a new direction does not mean a problem is resolved. He still gets strikeouts late in the game, but his command falters, so his misses become extra-base hits more often than not. He is a three-pitch guy with two strong breaking balls, but a quicker hook would help him in 2019.

2016 Robbie Ray was not as bad as his win-loss record and ERA. Conversely, he was not as good as his 2017 win-loss record and ERA either. The book on Ray has been: he is going to get a ton of strikeouts (12.1 K/9 last season), he is going to struggle with his command (3.9 BB/9) and he'll serve up some homers (1.28 HR/9). The difference between 2016 and 2017 was in his left-on-base percentage, as he stranded 68.7 percent of runners in 2016 but jumped that rate up to 84.5 percent in 2017. That latter rate is what power relievers do and starters struggle to eclipse 80 percent in consecutive seasons. He also avoided the Times Through The Order (TTOP) penalty; after allowing 49 percent of his 2016 earned runs when he was allowed to face batters for a third time, that number fell to 26 percent this past season. Expect the three truisms to continue for the most part, although with the new humidor at Chase Field, Ray should be able to cut down on the long balls.

If fantasy baseball pitchers were measured just in terms of strikeout rate, Ray might be among the first arms taken in drafts. He finished last season with an 11.3 K/9, which ranked second in the majors. Ray struck out 10 or more batters four times. Ray often racked up the strikeouts only to surround them with mediocre overall stats. Walks have been a big part of the issue. Ray walked 3.7 hitters per nine innings last season, which is in line with his career 3.6 BB/9. Ray's propensity for issuing free passes offsets his ability to miss bats and helps explain his 1.45 career WHIP. If -- and this is a big if -- Ray could cut down on the walks, he'd likely take off and post stellar fantasy numbers. Even if he does not improve upon last season's ratios, the strikeouts alone make him a solid middle-round investment in mixed leagues, and he should be particularly appealing for owners looking to supplement a low-ratios/middling-strikeouts starter taken ahead of him in drafts.

Though his win-loss numbers didn’t show it, Ray put together a solid 2015 for the Diamondbacks. He struck out 119 batters and compiled a 3.52 ERA (3.53 FIP) across 127.2 innings, and according to his 1.7 WAR, he was second the second best pitcher on the team, trailing only closer Brad Ziegler. It was a marked improvement from 2014, when Ray posted an 8.16 ERA in nine games (six starts) for Detroit. Ray could still probably stand to improve his control - he walked 3.5 batters per nine innings in 2015, which matched his 2014 rate. While he didn’t join the rotation for good until June last year, Ray should be a staple in the D-Backs rotation at the outset of 2016. However, this is a team that has cycled through rotation arms with frequency over the past couple seasons, so if Ray struggles there will be another middling option waiting to take his place.

The Tigers were high enough on Ray to make him the key piece in the Doug Fister trade prior to the 2014 season. Unfortunately, Ray's lone season in the Tigers' organization was a rough one. The 23-year-old lefty split time between Triple-A Toledo and Detroit. In 20 appearances for the Mud Hens, Ray went 7-6 with a 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 75:44 K:BB ratio in 100.1 innings. His time in Detroit was even bumpier, but on the plus side, Ray did impress in the Arizona Fall League, allowing three earned runs and striking out 12 in 11 innings. Although it was a disappointing year, it was Ray's first taste of Triple-A and major league ball, and with a fastball that touches 93 mph, a changeup and an improving slider, there's reason for optimism heading into his first year with Arizona. Harnessing his control is the biggest obstacle Ray needs to hurdle before the start of the regular season. If Ray can nab the final spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation, he'll garner some interest in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.

Ray broke through at High-A last year and held his own as a 21-year-old after a promotion to Double-A, and the Nationals wasted no time cashing in his new-found prospect status by dealing him for Doug Fister. Ray's control remains a work in progress, and given the Tigers' recent failures to develop left-handers with similar profiles (Exhibit A: Andrew Oliver) he can hardly be considered can't-miss. However, if Ray does build on last year's success, a 2015 major league debut seems likely.

More Fantasy News

Wins AL Cy Young Award

PFree Agent

November 17, 2021

Ray was announced as the winner of the 2021 American League Cy Young Award on Wednesday, the Baseball Writers' Association of America reports.