Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier
31-Year-Old Second Baseman2B
Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Dozier didn't repeat his AL-record 42 home runs for a second baseman, but had the second best season of his career by hitting 34 home runs and winning his first Gold Glove. He drew more walks (11.1 percent from 8.8 percent) but his 20 percent strikeout rate was identical to what he produced in 2016. Dozier rode a career-best .300 BABIP to a career-best .271 average. His batted-ball profile has improved over the past couple seasons, so he shouldn't revert back to his career .276 BABIP, but some slight batting average regression should be expected. He should continue running while frequently hitting in the leadoff spot where he's been most comfortable even though his power may play better later in the order. This placement has allowed him to produce four straight 100-plus run seasons, and there is no reason to expect a dropoff. Among second basemen, only Jose Altuve and Jose Ramirez can keep up with Dozier's reliable production in the four major counting stats. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed a four-year, $20 million contract extension with the Twins in March of 2015. Traded to the Dodgers in July of 2018.
Still out Monday
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 17, 2018
Dozier is not in the lineup Monday against the Rockies.
ANALYSIS
Dozier will stick on the bench for a fourth straight game as Enrique Hernandez draws a start at the keystone in his absence. The 31-year-old, who is hitting just .189/.302/.346 in 39 games since joining the Dodgers, has started just twice over the last seven games, both times against southpaws.
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Batting Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+13%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+7%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+34%
OPS vs LHP
2016
 
 
+12%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .893 503 85 24 53 7 .278 .370 .523
Since 2016vs Right .792 1504 205 72 207 38 .245 .324 .468
2018vs Left .664 176 22 2 7 2 .221 .335 .329
2018vs Right .709 435 58 18 61 9 .216 .294 .415
2017vs Left 1.057 168 34 11 25 2 .331 .423 .634
2017vs Right .790 537 72 23 68 14 .250 .337 .453
2016vs Left .965 159 29 11 21 3 .282 .352 .613
2016vs Right .862 532 75 31 78 15 .264 .336 .526
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+3%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+15%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+3%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .832 997 153 46 133 20 .257 .338 .494
Since 2016Away .803 1011 137 50 127 25 .250 .334 .469
2018Home .686 301 38 7 36 3 .218 .302 .383
2018Away .710 311 42 13 32 8 .218 .312 .399
2017Home .916 349 57 18 47 7 .276 .381 .535
2017Away .794 356 49 16 46 9 .263 .334 .459
2016Home .875 347 58 21 50 10 .271 .326 .549
2016Away .897 344 46 21 49 8 .265 .354 .544
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Stat Review
How does Brian Dozier compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.54
 
BB Rate
10.9%
 
K Rate
20.2%
 
BABIP
.243
 
ISO
.172
 
AVG
.217
 
OBP
.306
 
SLG
.389
 
OPS
.695
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Dozier has become one of the top fantasy options at second base due to his surging power and added speed. He was having a typical season through the first half (14 home runs, .786 OPS) but surged in the second half with 28 home runs and a .990 OPS over his last 72 games, finishing with 42 homers (the most ever for an AL second baseman). While that home run total may look like a fluke given the large leap from his previous career high (28), there are reasons to think he can approach that level again. Dozier has seen his slugging percentage increase every season in the majors and most of his other statistical measures were in line with his career, although he did have a high 18.4 percent HR/FB rate. Dozier doesn't draw walks at a great rate and strikes out a little too often, which makes his batting average a risk, but he should continue running while frequently hitting in the leadoff spot where he's been most comfortable.
Dozier offers a rare combination of speed and power at second base and has become a consistent fantasy producer the past three seasons. He looked set to have a career year after hitting 19 home runs while slashing .256/.328/.513 at midseason, but struggled after the All-Star break by hitting just nine home runs with a .280 on-base percentage while slugging just .359. Dozier improved as a fielder after he struggled at times with his defense the past two seasons. He doesn't draw walks at a great rate and strikes out a little too often, which makes his batting average a risk. Dozier also saw a slight decline in stolen-base attempts last season, which could continue if he moves lower in the order as the Twins may have better options in the top two spots, where he spent most of 2015. However, those are minor risks as Dozier looks set for another season in his prime as Minnesota's starting second baseman.
Dozier showed that his 2013 breakout season was no fluke as he was one of just five players with at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases last year. Dozier nearly duplicated his 2013 stats, but he had several positive developments -- specifically, more home runs and stolen bases as he played nine more games. He scored 112 runs as he hit first or second in the batting order almost all season. He also increased his walk rate to 12.6% from 8.6% in 2013. Perhaps the only negative was that he took a slight step back in the field as he doubled his errors (15) at second base and had a below average season by most defensive metrics. Still, his glove is seen as strong enough to keep his bat at second base. His 112 runs scored may not sustainable as he's not a high OBP player, and he could be dropped to the middle of the order, but otherwise Dozier looks set to be a top fantasy option again at second base in 2015.
Dozier revived his career by moving to second base last season, resulting in improved defense to go with good power at the plate. He disappointed in 2012 as a rookie as he hit just .234/.271/.332 and struggled with his defense at shortstop where his range was inadequate. The move to second base improved his defense as he made just six errors and was 11th in UZR among regular second basemen. He also improved at the plate by hitting .244/.312/.414 with 18 home runs. Dozier improved his walk rate (eight percent of plate appearances) which was more in line with his minor league career. He hit for some power in the minors, so his 18 home runs were not a fluke, and he also has decent speed with 14 stolen bases. He'll enter his prime next season at age 26 as Minnesota's starting second baseman and offers a valuable power-speed combination for a middle infielder.
After hitting hitting .318/.384/.502 at Double-A in 2011, Dozier looked like a potential shortstop of the future for the Twins. He was called up after a strong first month at Triple-A and given the starting shortstop job. He started off hot by hitting .298 with two home runs in his first 11 games, but cooled off quickly at the plate and was hitting just .234/.271/.332 before he was demoted in August. He also struggled with his defense, making 15 errors in 83 games with a -1.2 UZR. His range was not seen as adequate enough to play shortstop and the Twins moved him to second base in winter ball. The truth is he was likely overrated as a prospect as he will be 26 years old this season, and had fewer than 400 at-bats above High-A before he was given an everyday job in the majors. He has some pop (eight homers last year) and speed (25 stolen bases in 2011) and drew walks at a good clip before last year. Dozier still could carve out a major league role at second base, but will likely need to prove himself for a long stretch at Triple-A.
Dozier had a strong minor league season that could put him in position to make an impact in the majors with the Twins as early as 2012. Dozier hit .322/.423/.472 at High-A Fort Myers and then duplicated that performance by hitting .318/.384/.502 in a tough hitting environment at Double-A New Britain. He followed that up by hitting .298/.358/.454 with three home runs in 26 games in the Arizona Fall League. Dozier primarily played shortstop but also saw time at second base. It's not clear if he has the range to start at shortstop in the majors. However, his bat could eventually make him Minnesota's solution at shortstop as he has some pop (nine homers last year), strong plate discipline (66:55 K:BB ratio) and speed (25 stolen bases). He'll begin the season at Double-A, but could reach the majors in a utility role this summer. He's a prospect to grab in deeper keeper leagues.
More Fantasy News
Sits again Sunday
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 16, 2018
Dozier isn't in Sunday's starting lineup against the Cardinals, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
ANALYSIS
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Not in lineup Saturday
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 15, 2018
Dozier is out of the lineup against the Cardinals on Saturday, Andy McCullough of The Los Angeles Times reports.
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Out of Friday's lineup
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 14, 2018
Dozier is not in the starting nine versus St. Louis on Friday.
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On bench again Wednesday
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 12, 2018
Dozier is not in the lineup against the Reds on Wednesday, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports.
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Retreats to bench
2BLos Angeles Dodgers
September 11, 2018
Dozier is not in the lineup Tuesday against the Reds, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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