Cesar Hernandez News

Cesar Hernandez

31-Year-Old Second Baseman2B

Cleveland Indians

2021 Stats

AVG

.224

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2021 Fantasy Outlook

Hernandez had been a league-average hitter over his final five seasons in Philadelphia, recording a wRC+ of exactly 100 over that stretch. He performed slightly better than that in his first season in Cleveland, as his .283/.355/.388 slash line was good for a 108 wRC+, though his overall production wasn't particularly exciting for fantasy purposes. He homered just three times and failed to even attempt a single steal after swiping an average of 15.8 bases over the previous five campaigns. There were some moderately encouraging signs in his batted-ball profile, as his 89.1 mph exit velocity and 37.3% hard-hit rate were personal bests, though neither mark is particularly exciting, and he also saw his strikeout rate jump nearly seven points to 21.8%. The veteran should remain a player who isn't embarrassing to roster next season, but he won't be an exciting option even if he steals a few more bases. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#383

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats B

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 5'10"

Weight 195

DOB 5/23/1990

Born Valencia, Venezuela

College None

Drafted 2006 PHI

Doubles, slams 16th homer

2BCleveland Indians

July 21, 2021

Hernandez went 2-for-4 with a home run, a double and two RBI in Wednesday's 5-4 win over the Astros.

ANALYSIS
Hernandez hit a double off Lance McCullers in the third inning, scoring Yu Chang for the first run of the game. Later in the seventh frame, he slammed what ended up being the game-winning home run off Austin Pruitt. The 31-year-old has two long balls and eight RBI over his last six games. He did not strike out Wednesday, breaking a streak of 14 games where he struck out at least once. On the season, he is slashing .226/.302/.418 with 16 homers, 43 RBI and 55 runs scored in 393 plate appearances.

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Batting Stats

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2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2019

+11%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+14%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+33%

OPS vs RHP

2019

+22%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2019vs Left	.682	387	41	11	39	1	.236	.301	.382
Since 2019vs Right	.756	927	125	22	91	8	.273	.337	.419
2021vs Left	.773	141	20	9	17	0	.210	.305	.468
2021vs Right	.680	267	37	7	26	0	.231	.300	.380
2020vs Left	.606	61	7	1	6	0	.214	.267	.339
2020vs Right	.804	178	25	2	10	0	.302	.376	.428
2019vs Left	.641	185	14	1	16	1	.263	.308	.333
2019vs Right	.780	482	63	13	55	8	.286	.342	.438
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2019

+24%

OPS at Home

2021

+25%

OPS at Home

2020

+33%

OPS at Home

2019

+20%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2019Home	.819	644	97	20	75	5	.282	.358	.462
Since 2019Away	.660	687	70	13	59	4	.246	.298	.361
2021Home	.794	197	36	10	25	0	.234	.320	.474
2021Away	.635	211	21	6	18	0	.215	.284	.351
2020Home	.876	124	20	3	17	0	.312	.390	.486
2020Away	.657	132	13	0	3	0	.256	.318	.339
2019Home	.813	323	41	7	33	5	.300	.368	.445
2019Away	.675	344	36	7	38	4	.261	.299	.376
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Stat Review

How does Cesar Hernandez compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

BB/K

0.42

BB Rate

9.1%

K Rate

21.8%

BABIP

.252

ISO

.186

AVG

.224

OBP

.301

SLG

.410

OPS

.711

wOBA

.314

Exit Velocity

80.3 mph

Hard Hit Rate

30.9%

Barrels/PA

7.3%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2011

Hernandez is who he is at this point: a league-average second baseman and an everyday fixture near the bottom of the lineup. The Phillies didn't want to pay up for his final year of arbitration, but Cleveland swooped in to sign him for one year and $6.25 million. He turns 30 in May, so his best years are likely behind him, but given this landing spot, he should remain useful in deeper leagues. Hernandez's offensive profile changed in 2019, for better and for worse. He raised his batting average from .253 to .279 and cut his K% from 21.9% to 15.0%, but he also saw his BB% fall from 13.4% to 6.7%. More importantly for most fantasy owners, he also stole just nine bases after stealing at least 15 in each of the previous four seasons. Players don't usually reverse that trend in their 30s, so Hernandez might be left offering little more than a decent batting average while compiling everyday counting stats.

Hernandez's batted-ball profile started to resemble that of a power hitter in 2018, as he raised his flyball rate from 24.6% to 33.6% and increased his pull rate from 35.8% to 40.3%. However, it's probably unwise to read too much of his underlying numbers after it came to light that he played most of the second half with a broken foot. He had a career-high 13.4% walk rate but also a 21.9% strikeout rate that represented his highest mark since his small-sample 2014 season. The end result was a career-best 15 homers but a drop in all three slash categories to .253/.356/.362, good for a league-average 100 wRC+, and only five steals after he suffered the foot injury July 20. The dream scenario for Hernandez in 2019 would see him hold onto his power gains while regaining his solid batting average and some stolen bases with improved health.

Hernandez once looked like he would merely be a placeholder in the middle infield until the Phillies accelerated their rebuild, but back-to-back campaigns of at least 15 steals, averages north of .290 and OBPs above .370 may have changed his outlook with the organization. While those three areas are where Hernandez provides his greatest impact in the fantasy realm, he also showed some unexpected pop last season with 41 extra-base hits, making him at least an average contributor among second basemen in terms of power. Middle-infield prospects J.P. Crawford and Scott Kingery are both expected to get fair shakes at everyday roles at some point in 2018, but Hernandez's reliable glove and on-base skills atop the lineup offer value. The youngsters might offer more upside, but it would be unwise to dismiss the 27-year-old's chances of retaining regular at-bats throughout the season with few other proven table setters on the roster.

Hernandez showed growth in his patience, increasing his walk rate by nearly two percent and his on-base percentage from .339 in 2015 to .371 last season. He walked at just a five percent clip in the first half of the season, but a benching in late June sent a message and he walked at nearly a 16 percent clip over the second half of the season. Hernandez has minimal power but possesses great speed. His 11 triples were tied for the most in baseball. Despite that speed and his on-base skills, he managed just 17 steals on 30 attempts. Only Jonathan Villar was caught stealing more often than Hernandez, but he stole nearly four times as many bases. An improvement in efficiency could result in 20-plus steals, but there is some playing time risk, as a potential midseason promotion of prospect J.P. Crawford would force the Phillies to decide between Hernandez and Freddy Galvis at second base. .

Hernandez won a bench job with the Phillies last spring and produced when given opportunities to play early in the season. When Chase Utley went on the disabled list in June, Hernandez moved into a starting role and made enough of an impression that the team had him split time with Utley until the veteran was shipped off to the Dodgers in August. Unfortunately for Hernandez, his season ended early when he suffered a dislocated thumb and ligament damage in mid-September. Hernandez's biggest contribution in fantasy leagues was his 19 stolen bases. He has stolen over 30 bags a couple times in the minors, so the potential is there for him to make a dent in the stolen base category. He will likely open the year as the starter at second, but he'll have to hit for average and work counts to get on base because he offers little else with the bat. If he slumps, the Phillies could turn second base over to Darnell Sweeney.

Hernandez split his time between the majors and minors last season. The Phillies tried to increase his versatility by having him play third last season, but with 11 errors in 32 games in the majors and minors it is clear that Hernandez has some work to do. Hernandez's best skill is his ability to put the ball in play. He has no power, but does have decent speed despite stealing just nine total bags last season. He is out of options which should increase his chances at winning a bench job this spring. Chase Utley has managed to stay fairly healthy of late, but he does have a chronic knee condition that could flare up at any time. Hernandez would stand to benefit with increased playing time at second if something were to happen to Utley.

Hernandez got his first opportunity in the majors last season when the Phillies called him up as a short-term injury replacement. He managed to stick around after Chase Utley was sidelined with a strained oblique, and showed enough with the bat that the Phillies started looking to increase his versatility. Hernandez saw his first action in the outfield last year, and the Phillies have said they want him to also start working out a third. Hernandez does not hit for any power, but he does make pretty good contact and he has speed. He will get a chance to compete for a bench job this spring, but is likely to start the year back in the minors. He could provide some value later in the year thanks to his stolen-base ability should he get a chance at regular playing time.

Hernandez earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A last year after hitting .314/.351/.451 with two home runs for Double-A Reading. He is considered a slick fielder and he has shown some speed on the basepaths during his time in the minors. His upside with the bat is limited due to his lack of power, but he looks like he should at least have a future as a solid utility infielder.

Hernandez, who was signed out of Venezuela in 2006, was added to the Phillies' 40-man roster this winter despite being only 20 years old and not playing above short season Low-A yet. The Phillies clearly think highly of his potential, but Hernandez's lack of power makes him only a mildly interesting fantasy prospect for now. Hernandez does have good speed so if he continues to hit as he moves up the ladder his prospect star will brighten. Keep an eye on his progress.

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