Justin Bour
Justin Bour
30-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Philadelphia Phillies
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Marlins Park is a pitcher's park, right? Someone should tell Bour this because it seems he does not believe it to be so. He is just one of seven first baseman to have an ISO (slugging minus batting average) of at least .200 in each of the past three seasons, joining the likes of Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion to name a few. A look at his batted-ball profile shows a hitter who has increased his hard-hit rate three consecutive seasons (to 38.8 percent last year) and his 2017 power surge saw one of every four flyballs he hit leave the yard. Bour does most of his damage against righties, but has also been getting progressively better against lefties as his batting average against them has improved by 20 points in each of the past two seasons. The only issue with Bour is who is he going to drive in if Derek Jeter and company sell off the roster for yet another rebuild in Miami. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Won his arbitration case and will make $3.4 million in 2018.
Returns from DL
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
September 2, 2018
The Phillies activated Bour (oblique) from the 10-day disabled list ahead of Sunday's game against the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
Bour missed the minimum amount of time with the minor left oblique strain and was able to rejoin the Phillies without requiring a rehab assignment beforehand. With Carlos Santana locked in as the Phillies' everyday first baseman and the team recently adding another corner-infield option to the roster in Jose Bautista, Bour will likely struggle to find consistent at-bats now that he's healthy again.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+32%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+43%
OPS vs RHP
2017
 
 
+15%
OPS vs RHP
2016
 
 
+61%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .660 272 24 8 35 0 .222 .309 .351
Since 2016vs Right .874 966 112 52 158 3 .271 .366 .508
2018vs Left .583 144 12 2 12 0 .197 .313 .270
2018vs Right .835 344 37 18 47 2 .246 .360 .474
2017vs Left .809 98 11 6 21 0 .253 .327 .483
2017vs Right .929 331 41 19 62 1 .300 .378 .552
2016vs Left .533 30 1 0 2 0 .233 .233 .300
2016vs Right .857 291 34 15 49 0 .268 .361 .496
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+5%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+2%
OPS on Road
2017
 
 
+6%
OPS at Home
2016
 
 
+14%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home .846 602 62 34 103 2 .255 .350 .495
Since 2016Away .809 636 74 26 90 1 .265 .357 .452
2018Home .751 241 22 11 30 1 .224 .336 .415
2018Away .769 247 27 9 29 1 .238 .356 .413
2017Home .929 202 20 14 45 1 .287 .361 .567
2017Away .878 227 32 11 38 0 .291 .370 .508
2016Home .881 159 20 9 28 0 .261 .358 .522
2016Away .771 162 15 6 23 0 .267 .340 .432
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Stat Review
How does Justin Bour compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.60
 
BB Rate
14.8%
 
K Rate
24.7%
 
BABIP
.272
 
ISO
.181
 
AVG
.229
 
OBP
.345
 
SLG
.410
 
OPS
.754
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
A preseason favorite of many to build on his breakout 2015 campaign, Bour was headed in that direction before an ankle injury forced him to the disabled list in early July. At the time, he had slugged 15 homers, pacing past the previous season's 23. Bour was activated in early September, appearing in 22 more contests but failed to add onto his homer total. In fact, he swatted only three extra-base hits in the last month. The lefty has slugged all 38 of his home runs off righty throwers the last two seasons, which largely explains why he's strictly a platoon player. Keep in mind that the right field fences in Marlins Park were brought in and lowered prior to the 2016 season. The venue still depresses lefty power but not to the same extent as before. Bour should again be a target for those looking for cheap power at corner or utility without dampening batting average.
Finally given a chance at age 27, Bour gave the Marlins about 129 games of a league-average first base bat. He doesn't make much contact, and his eye is average at best, but Bour can put a charge in one as evidenced by his 23 home runs (10 at Marlins Park) — an impressive number, especially for a guy who was a 25th round pick in 2009. Bour showed similar power at every level of the minor leagues, and at 27, he should have a few years of peak power production left in him. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, because Bour plays in one of the worst possible parks for a power hitter, any significant growth to the power numbers seems unlikely. He should once again contribute middling production in batting average and below-average runs scored, but there is the potential for him to easily top the 73 RBI he posted last year if Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton can stay healthy in front of him in the lineup.
Despite his status as just a mid-level prospect in a healthy Miami farm system, Bour put his power on display at Triple-A New Orleans during his age-26 season, slashing .306/.372/.517 with 18 home runs, 27 doubles and 72 RBI in 103 games in the minors. The left-handed first baseman showed well during a brief stint with the big club down the stretch, batting .284 with a solid .361 OBP over 74 at-bats. Miami deployed a disappointing platoon of veterans at first base led by Garrett Jones and could benefit from an injection of youth at the position as they continue to hand over the keys to their success to a stable of up-and-coming talent. Bour possesses solid plate discipline, posting a 10.8% walk rate during his first exposure to major league pitching while striking out 22.9% of the time, and he showed more than enough to earn a long look in spring training. Matching the power numbers Bour posted in the hitter friendly PCL last season may be a stretch while making the move to spacious Marlins Park, but a solid batting eye and gap-to-gap power will keep him productive if given at-bats. He'll likely fill a reserve role for the Marlins following the addition of Mike Morse.
More Fantasy News
Resumes swinging
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
Oblique
August 31, 2018
Bour (oblique) took some swings Friday for the first time since injuring his oblique Aug. 22, Matt Gelb of The Athletic Philadelphia reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hits DL with oblique injury
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
Oblique
August 23, 2018
Bour was put on the 10-day DL prior to Thursday's game due to a left oblique strain, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
ANALYSIS
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Smacks 20th homer
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
August 22, 2018
Bour went 2-for-5 with a double, a home run, two runs scored and two RBI in Wednesday's 8-7 loss to the Nationals.
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Batting second against righty
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
August 15, 2018
Bour is starting at first base and hitting second Wednesday against the Red Sox.
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Heading to Phillies
1BPhiladelphia Phillies
August 10, 2018
The Marlins traded Bour to the Phillies on Friday in exchange for McKenzie Mills, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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