Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cleveland Indians
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Bauer may prepare in a bit of a quirky way, but his commitment to his craft paid off in a big way in 2018, as he was one of the best pitchers in the league through four months. A stress fracture in his lower leg cost him almost six weeks, with him returning in an abbreviated role to close out September. He finished second in the majors, behind only Jacob deGrom, with a 2.44 FIP and finished in the top seven in K% (30.8) and K-BB% (22.9). His 95-mph fastball is a plus pitch, but what separates Bauer from most other starters is that he has four more plus pitches (slider, curveball, changeup, cutter) in his bag of tricks, so hitters are almost always at his mercy. Even with the missed time, he finished ninth among starting pitchers in earned auction dollars ($22), so if the skills growth is real and he is able to top 200 innings for the first time in his career, he could finish as a top-five fantasy starter in 2019. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $6.53 million contract with the Indians in February of 2018 after winning his arbitration hearing.
Available in relief Monday
PCleveland Indians
October 7, 2018
Manager Terry Francona said Bauer will be available in relief for Game 3 against the Astros, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Bauer is lined up to start Game 4, but after the Indians lost the first two games of the series, they want to have all of their top pitchers available in order to stave off elimination. If Bauer isn't used, he would start Game 4 as planned, but if he does pitch Monday, Shane Bieber would get the nod Tuesday against Houston.
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Pitching Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .239 1100 285 88 235 55 3 29
Since 2016vs Right .244 1177 300 99 259 52 6 25
2018vs Left .202 359 106 28 65 12 1 5
2018vs Right .213 358 115 29 69 18 1 4
2017vs Left .276 359 83 31 88 21 0 16
2017vs Right .258 390 113 29 93 20 3 9
2016vs Left .239 382 96 29 82 22 2 8
2016vs Right .257 429 72 41 97 14 2 12
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-22%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.63 1.24 292.2 22 9 0 9.8 2.9 1.1
Since 2016Away 3.51 1.27 248.0 19 14 1 9.7 3.4 0.7
2018Home 1.84 1.06 83.0 6 1 0 11.8 3.1 0.4
2018Away 2.53 1.12 92.1 6 5 1 10.9 2.7 0.5
2017Home 3.93 1.33 103.0 10 4 0 10.1 2.2 1.4
2017Away 4.54 1.42 73.1 7 5 0 9.8 4.3 1.1
2016Home 4.73 1.30 106.2 6 4 0 7.8 3.4 1.3
2016Away 3.67 1.32 83.1 6 4 0 8.1 3.2 0.5
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Bauer compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.88
 
K/9
11.3
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
0.5
 
Fastball
94.6 mph
 
ERA
2.21
 
WHIP
1.09
 
BABIP
.314
 
GB/FB
1.42
 
Strand %
81.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Indians Depth Chart
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Trevor Bauer
The Z Files: Drafting a Pitching Staff
41 days ago
Todd Zola walks through how he assembles a fantasy pitching staff and explains why Max Scherzer is the only hurler to get a pre-draft plan named after him.
The Z Files: Historical Top 200
74 days ago
Todd Zola takes a look at the end-of-season top-200 performers over the last five years and thinks Charlie Blackmon's being discounted too heavily in early drafts given his track record.
The Z Files: Early Top 15 Pitchers
83 days ago
Todd Zola offers his initial list of the top arms heading into 2019, and doesn't think Luis Severino's second half is a good enough reason to keep him out of the top 10.
The Z Files: Mad About Max
111 days ago
Todd Zola looks at his strategy for drafting an ace heading into the first NFBC league of the 2019 season, and wonders how early might be too early for Max Scherzer.
DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks
120 days ago
Derek VanRiper provides his best recommendations for Tuesday's slate, including the Rangers' Rougned Odor on the road against the Angels.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Bauer hasn't yet delivered on the frontline-starter potential many saw in him as a prospect, but with Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and AL wins leader Carlos Carrasco leading the pitching staff, the Indians only asked the right-hander to be a serviceable mid-rotation arm last season. The 27-year-old did exactly that while submitting his best season, going 17-9 and posting a career-high 10.0 K/9 rate that ranked 13th among qualified starters. Bauer found success by streamlining his repertoire, using his four-seam fastball or curveball nearly 70 percent of the time, which had positive effects on his oft-shaky command. Even so, Bauer still had issues with home runs and working deep into starts, and until he corrects those flaws, he's unlikely to offer much assistance in ERA and WHIP. Bauer's pedigree gives him a better chance than most to make the jump to ace-level starter, but his counting stats are already useful for fantasy owners even if this is his ceiling.
Bauer hasn't delivered on the potential associated with being a No. 3 overall pick, but he's becoming a productive major league starter. His pedigree places a burden of expectation on Bauer. Any successful run from Bauer prompts a contingent of his backers to believe it's the beginning of his ascent, when usually it's just a solid run for what may well be just an average pitcher. That he chopped anything off his ERA while the league scoring environment surged represents a modicum of growth, but the only bankable improvement in his profile was a 10-percent jump in groundball rate, to a career-high 49 percent. While the overall results have been essentially static in his three full-ish seasons (he had cameos in 2012 and 2013), he has at least added innings year over year. He isn't a completely finished product with just 552.1 major league innings under his belt, but expectations should be kept realistic.
Bauer held onto most of the gains he made in 2014, but did not really take any meaningful step forward in his second season as a member of the starting rotation. He is still too willing to walk hitters (4.0 BB/9 and a league-leading 79 walks in 176 innings), which is further compounded by his issues with the longball (1.2 HR/9, 23 homers allowed). To his credit, Bauer misses bats at a high clip (8.7 K/9) and does not have any platoon issues (.735 OPS vs. righties, .731 OPS vs. lefties in his career). In a somewhat surprising move, Bauer was demoted to a bullpen role late in camp, as Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin both outpitched him in spring training. Bauer could be a devastating reliever if he willingly accepts the role, but without a spot in the rotation, he can be avoided for now in standard leagues. He will be the obvious option to jump back into the rotation if one of the Indians' five starters suffers an injury.
Bauer is a good example of why the fantasy community’s expectations of prospects desperately need to be dialed down across the board. The former No. 3 overall pick put up some gaudy strikeout numbers upon entering pro ball, but walked way too many batters to find steady upper minors success, let alone big league success. His flaws were exacerbated in a couple of tiny MLB samples in 2012-13 as he walked 29 while striking out just 28 in 33 innings. Even with the appropriate small sample size caveats in place, it was still a disaster and indicative of why he wasn't earning a chance to fatten up the sample. Still just 23 entering last year, he had a major growth spurt skills-wise as he finally stopped walking every batter in sight and actually strung together some major league success in the summer. It’s all relative, though, because his 9.1% walk rate marked a huge improvement for him, but it was still the 10th-highest among the 98 starters who logged at least 150 innings. Speculate in deep leagues, but keep expectations reasonable.
Bauer was a disaster in four spot starts for the Indians and was not much better in 22 starts at Triple-A Columbus last season. He was passed over for a September callup despite already being on the 40-man roster, which pretty much sums up his season. He's never posted jaw-dropping numbers in the minors despite lots of prospect ink and a nice strikeout rate, as his lack of command has always been his undoing. There's a lot less to like here than there was 12 months ago when the Indians acquired him from the Diamondbacks, but the power arm offers hope that he will turn things around. Bauer will need to impress mightily in spring training to earn a rotation spot, so he's likely headed back to Triple-A to attempt to put the pieces back together.
Bauer earned Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors with the D-Backs as he carved up Double-A and Triple-A hitters to the tune of a combined 157:61 K:BB in 130.1 innings around a four-start audition with Arizona. Walks were an issue at his minor league stops, but Bauer couldn't find the plate during his brief time in the big leagues, and he seemed to draw the ire of some teammates and coaches with generally a stubborn demeanor. If he's able to improve his fastball command, there is reason to believe that Bauer will still become a very good big league starter, but he will continue his development in Cleveland after being acquired by the Indians in December. With less starting pitching depth around him in his new organization, it is much easier to envision a scenario where he breaks camp as a member of the Tribe's rotation.
After a dominant career at UCLA, Bauer was the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft and the D-Backs wasted little time getting him acclimated to pro ball. Although he did not reach Arizona in September, Bauer worked 25.2 innings between High-A Visalia and Double-A Mobile while compiling an impressive 43:12 K:BB over seven starts. Bauer has drawn comparisons to Tim Lincecum, and he profiles to be the ace in a very good young Arizona rotation for years to come. The 21-year-old is extremely polished and offers a five-pitch arsenal led by a plus-plus curveball. Even if he doesn't break camp with the D-Backs, he should be up for good in 2012.
More Fantasy News
Dominates in relief
PCleveland Indians
October 1, 2018
Bauer tossed four scoreless innings to capture his first career save in Sunday's 2-1 win over the Royals. He gave up two hits and no walks and struck out two over the 51-pitch appearance.
ANALYSIS
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Will be available out of bullpen Sunday
PCleveland Indians
September 29, 2018
Bauer will be available to work out of the bullpen Sunday against the Royals behind scheduled starter Carlos Carrasco, T.J. Zuppe of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Allows two runs in four innings
PCleveland Indians
September 26, 2018
Bauer allowed two runs on five hits with no walks across four innings in a no-decision Tuesday against the White Sox. He struck out four.
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Throws abbreviated start
PCleveland Indians
September 21, 2018
Bauer allowed no runs on two hits in 1.1 innings Friday against the Red Sox, recording one strikeout and one walk in a no-decision.
ANALYSIS
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Returns from DL for Friday's start
PCleveland Indians
September 21, 2018
Bauer (lower leg) was activated off the 10-day disabled list ahead of Friday's start against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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