Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cleveland Indians
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Bauer may prepare in a bit of a quirky way, but his commitment to his craft paid off in a big way in 2018, as he was one of the best pitchers in the league through four months. A stress fracture in his lower leg cost him almost six weeks, with him returning in an abbreviated role to close out September. He finished second in the majors, behind only Jacob deGrom, with a 2.44 FIP and finished in the top seven in K% (30.8) and K-BB% (22.9). His 95-mph fastball is a plus pitch, but what separates Bauer from most other starters is that he has four more plus pitches (slider, curveball, changeup, cutter) in his bag of tricks, so hitters are almost always at his mercy. Even with the missed time, he finished ninth among starting pitchers in earned auction dollars ($22), so if the skills growth is real and he is able to top 200 innings for the first time in his career, he could finish as a top-five fantasy starter in 2019. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $13 million contract with the Indians in February of 2019 after winning arbitration hearing.
Strikes out 11 in loss
PCleveland Indians
July 13, 2019
Bauer (8-7) was handed the loss against the Twins on Saturday after surrendering three runs on six hits over six innings. He struck out 11 and walked three.
Bauer was somewhat fortunate to only give up three runs as all three came via solo homer, including two from Max Kepler. The right-hander has now given up 20 home runs in 138 innings this season. Bauer will carry a 3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 160:54 K:BB into Thursday's start versus the Tigers.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .242 973 249 84 208 43 3 34
Since 2017vs Right .222 1077 328 87 217 53 7 20
2019vs Left .251 255 60 25 55 10 2 13
2019vs Right .188 329 100 29 55 15 3 7
2018vs Left .202 359 106 28 65 12 1 5
2018vs Right .213 358 115 29 69 18 1 4
2017vs Left .276 359 83 31 88 21 0 16
2017vs Right .258 390 113 29 93 20 3 9
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA on Road
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
Since 2017Home 3.51 1.23 253.2 18 10 0 10.9 3.0 1.2
Since 2017Away 3.13 1.20 236.0 19 12 1 10.3 3.3 0.8
2019Home 4.92 1.29 67.2 2 5 0 10.9 4.1 1.9
2019Away 2.43 1.09 70.1 6 2 0 10.0 2.9 0.8
2018Home 1.84 1.06 83.0 6 1 0 11.8 3.1 0.4
2018Away 2.53 1.12 92.1 6 5 1 10.9 2.7 0.5
2017Home 3.93 1.33 103.0 10 4 0 10.1 2.2 1.4
2017Away 4.54 1.42 73.1 7 5 0 9.8 4.3 1.1
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Bauer compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
94.7 mph
Left On Base
Exit Velocity
88.6 mph
Spin Rate
2366 rpm
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
Swinging Strike
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Bauer hasn't yet delivered on the frontline-starter potential many saw in him as a prospect, but with Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and AL wins leader Carlos Carrasco leading the pitching staff, the Indians only asked the right-hander to be a serviceable mid-rotation arm last season. The 27-year-old did exactly that while submitting his best season, going 17-9 and posting a career-high 10.0 K/9 rate that ranked 13th among qualified starters. Bauer found success by streamlining his repertoire, using his four-seam fastball or curveball nearly 70 percent of the time, which had positive effects on his oft-shaky command. Even so, Bauer still had issues with home runs and working deep into starts, and until he corrects those flaws, he's unlikely to offer much assistance in ERA and WHIP. Bauer's pedigree gives him a better chance than most to make the jump to ace-level starter, but his counting stats are already useful for fantasy owners even if this is his ceiling.
Bauer hasn't delivered on the potential associated with being a No. 3 overall pick, but he's becoming a productive major league starter. His pedigree places a burden of expectation on Bauer. Any successful run from Bauer prompts a contingent of his backers to believe it's the beginning of his ascent, when usually it's just a solid run for what may well be just an average pitcher. That he chopped anything off his ERA while the league scoring environment surged represents a modicum of growth, but the only bankable improvement in his profile was a 10-percent jump in groundball rate, to a career-high 49 percent. While the overall results have been essentially static in his three full-ish seasons (he had cameos in 2012 and 2013), he has at least added innings year over year. He isn't a completely finished product with just 552.1 major league innings under his belt, but expectations should be kept realistic.
Bauer held onto most of the gains he made in 2014, but did not really take any meaningful step forward in his second season as a member of the starting rotation. He is still too willing to walk hitters (4.0 BB/9 and a league-leading 79 walks in 176 innings), which is further compounded by his issues with the longball (1.2 HR/9, 23 homers allowed). To his credit, Bauer misses bats at a high clip (8.7 K/9) and does not have any platoon issues (.735 OPS vs. righties, .731 OPS vs. lefties in his career). In a somewhat surprising move, Bauer was demoted to a bullpen role late in camp, as Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin both outpitched him in spring training. Bauer could be a devastating reliever if he willingly accepts the role, but without a spot in the rotation, he can be avoided for now in standard leagues. He will be the obvious option to jump back into the rotation if one of the Indians' five starters suffers an injury.
Bauer is a good example of why the fantasy community’s expectations of prospects desperately need to be dialed down across the board. The former No. 3 overall pick put up some gaudy strikeout numbers upon entering pro ball, but walked way too many batters to find steady upper minors success, let alone big league success. His flaws were exacerbated in a couple of tiny MLB samples in 2012-13 as he walked 29 while striking out just 28 in 33 innings. Even with the appropriate small sample size caveats in place, it was still a disaster and indicative of why he wasn't earning a chance to fatten up the sample. Still just 23 entering last year, he had a major growth spurt skills-wise as he finally stopped walking every batter in sight and actually strung together some major league success in the summer. It’s all relative, though, because his 9.1% walk rate marked a huge improvement for him, but it was still the 10th-highest among the 98 starters who logged at least 150 innings. Speculate in deep leagues, but keep expectations reasonable.
Bauer was a disaster in four spot starts for the Indians and was not much better in 22 starts at Triple-A Columbus last season. He was passed over for a September callup despite already being on the 40-man roster, which pretty much sums up his season. He's never posted jaw-dropping numbers in the minors despite lots of prospect ink and a nice strikeout rate, as his lack of command has always been his undoing. There's a lot less to like here than there was 12 months ago when the Indians acquired him from the Diamondbacks, but the power arm offers hope that he will turn things around. Bauer will need to impress mightily in spring training to earn a rotation spot, so he's likely headed back to Triple-A to attempt to put the pieces back together.
Bauer earned Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors with the D-Backs as he carved up Double-A and Triple-A hitters to the tune of a combined 157:61 K:BB in 130.1 innings around a four-start audition with Arizona. Walks were an issue at his minor league stops, but Bauer couldn't find the plate during his brief time in the big leagues, and he seemed to draw the ire of some teammates and coaches with generally a stubborn demeanor. If he's able to improve his fastball command, there is reason to believe that Bauer will still become a very good big league starter, but he will continue his development in Cleveland after being acquired by the Indians in December. With less starting pitching depth around him in his new organization, it is much easier to envision a scenario where he breaks camp as a member of the Tribe's rotation.
After a dominant career at UCLA, Bauer was the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft and the D-Backs wasted little time getting him acclimated to pro ball. Although he did not reach Arizona in September, Bauer worked 25.2 innings between High-A Visalia and Double-A Mobile while compiling an impressive 43:12 K:BB over seven starts. Bauer has drawn comparisons to Tim Lincecum, and he profiles to be the ace in a very good young Arizona rotation for years to come. The 21-year-old is extremely polished and offers a five-pitch arsenal led by a plus-plus curveball. Even if he doesn't break camp with the D-Backs, he should be up for good in 2012.
More Fantasy News
Fans nine in eighth win
PCleveland Indians
July 7, 2019
Bauer (8-6) picked up the win after surrendering one run on four hits and three walks while striking out nine over seven innings Sunday against the Reds.
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Shaky in seventh win
PCleveland Indians
July 3, 2019
Bauer (7-6) picked up the win in Tuesday's 9-5 victory over the Royals, coughing up five runs on 11 hits and a walk over six innings while striking out six.
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Fans season-high 12
PCleveland Indians
June 26, 2019
Bauer (6-6) picked up the win in Wednesday's 5-3 victory over the Royals, allowing one run on three hits and a walk over 6.2 innings while striking out a season-high 12.
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Knocked around by Detroit
PCleveland Indians
June 21, 2019
Bauer surrendered five runs on 10 hits and a walk while striking out five over four-plus innings in a no-decision Friday against the Tigers.
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Silences Tigers with CG shutout
PCleveland Indians
June 16, 2019
Bauer (5-6) gave up four hits and struck out eight over nine scoreless innings Sunday while earning the win over Detroit.
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