Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cleveland Indians
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Bauer hasn't yet delivered on the frontline-starter potential many saw in him as a prospect, but with Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and AL wins leader Carlos Carrasco leading the pitching staff, the Indians only asked the right-hander to be a serviceable mid-rotation arm last season. The 27-year-old did exactly that while submitting his best season, going 17-9 and posting a career-high 10.0 K/9 rate that ranked 13th among qualified starters. Bauer found success by streamlining his repertoire, using his four-seam fastball or curveball nearly 70 percent of the time, which had positive effects on his oft-shaky command. Even so, Bauer still had issues with home runs and working deep into starts, and until he corrects those flaws, he's unlikely to offer much assistance in ERA and WHIP. Bauer's pedigree gives him a better chance than most to make the jump to ace-level starter, but his counting stats are already useful for fantasy owners even if this is his ceiling. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $6.53 million contract with the Indians in February of 2018 after winning his arbitration hearing.
Throws abbreviated start
PCleveland Indians
September 21, 2018
Bauer allowed no runs on two hits in 1.1 innings Friday against the Red Sox, recording one strikeout and one walk in a no-decision.
ANALYSIS
Making his first appearance since Aug. 11, Bauer (lower leg) eased back into things with a short start, throwing 17 of 34 pitches for strikes. The stint on the disabled list put a damper on what has been an excellent season for Bauer, as he's posted a 2.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a .207 batting average against through 167.1 innings with 215 punchouts this year. He'll look to stretch things out a bit further in his next start against the White Sox in Chicago.
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Pitching Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .239 1076 280 88 229 55 3 29
Since 2016vs Right .244 1164 298 98 256 52 6 24
2018vs Left .199 335 101 28 59 12 1 5
2018vs Right .212 345 113 28 66 18 1 3
2017vs Left .276 359 83 31 88 21 0 16
2017vs Right .258 390 113 29 93 20 3 9
2016vs Left .239 382 96 29 82 22 2 8
2016vs Right .257 429 72 41 97 14 2 12
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-3%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-22%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.65 1.24 291.1 22 9 0 9.8 2.9 1.1
Since 2016Away 3.55 1.29 240.0 19 14 0 9.7 3.5 0.7
2018Home 1.87 1.04 81.2 6 1 0 11.9 3.1 0.4
2018Away 2.56 1.14 84.1 6 5 0 11.3 3.0 0.4
2017Home 3.93 1.33 103.0 10 4 0 10.1 2.2 1.4
2017Away 4.54 1.42 73.1 7 5 0 9.8 4.3 1.1
2016Home 4.73 1.30 106.2 6 4 0 7.8 3.4 1.3
2016Away 3.67 1.32 83.1 6 4 0 8.1 3.2 0.5
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Bauer compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.77
 
K/9
11.6
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
0.4
 
Fastball
94.6 mph
 
ERA
2.21
 
WHIP
1.10
 
BABIP
.317
 
GB/FB
1.39
 
Strand %
81.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Bauer hasn't delivered on the potential associated with being a No. 3 overall pick, but he's becoming a productive major league starter. His pedigree places a burden of expectation on Bauer. Any successful run from Bauer prompts a contingent of his backers to believe it's the beginning of his ascent, when usually it's just a solid run for what may well be just an average pitcher. That he chopped anything off his ERA while the league scoring environment surged represents a modicum of growth, but the only bankable improvement in his profile was a 10-percent jump in groundball rate, to a career-high 49 percent. While the overall results have been essentially static in his three full-ish seasons (he had cameos in 2012 and 2013), he has at least added innings year over year. He isn't a completely finished product with just 552.1 major league innings under his belt, but expectations should be kept realistic.
Bauer held onto most of the gains he made in 2014, but did not really take any meaningful step forward in his second season as a member of the starting rotation. He is still too willing to walk hitters (4.0 BB/9 and a league-leading 79 walks in 176 innings), which is further compounded by his issues with the longball (1.2 HR/9, 23 homers allowed). To his credit, Bauer misses bats at a high clip (8.7 K/9) and does not have any platoon issues (.735 OPS vs. righties, .731 OPS vs. lefties in his career). In a somewhat surprising move, Bauer was demoted to a bullpen role late in camp, as Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin both outpitched him in spring training. Bauer could be a devastating reliever if he willingly accepts the role, but without a spot in the rotation, he can be avoided for now in standard leagues. He will be the obvious option to jump back into the rotation if one of the Indians' five starters suffers an injury.
Bauer is a good example of why the fantasy community’s expectations of prospects desperately need to be dialed down across the board. The former No. 3 overall pick put up some gaudy strikeout numbers upon entering pro ball, but walked way too many batters to find steady upper minors success, let alone big league success. His flaws were exacerbated in a couple of tiny MLB samples in 2012-13 as he walked 29 while striking out just 28 in 33 innings. Even with the appropriate small sample size caveats in place, it was still a disaster and indicative of why he wasn't earning a chance to fatten up the sample. Still just 23 entering last year, he had a major growth spurt skills-wise as he finally stopped walking every batter in sight and actually strung together some major league success in the summer. It’s all relative, though, because his 9.1% walk rate marked a huge improvement for him, but it was still the 10th-highest among the 98 starters who logged at least 150 innings. Speculate in deep leagues, but keep expectations reasonable.
Bauer was a disaster in four spot starts for the Indians and was not much better in 22 starts at Triple-A Columbus last season. He was passed over for a September callup despite already being on the 40-man roster, which pretty much sums up his season. He's never posted jaw-dropping numbers in the minors despite lots of prospect ink and a nice strikeout rate, as his lack of command has always been his undoing. There's a lot less to like here than there was 12 months ago when the Indians acquired him from the Diamondbacks, but the power arm offers hope that he will turn things around. Bauer will need to impress mightily in spring training to earn a rotation spot, so he's likely headed back to Triple-A to attempt to put the pieces back together.
Bauer earned Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors with the D-Backs as he carved up Double-A and Triple-A hitters to the tune of a combined 157:61 K:BB in 130.1 innings around a four-start audition with Arizona. Walks were an issue at his minor league stops, but Bauer couldn't find the plate during his brief time in the big leagues, and he seemed to draw the ire of some teammates and coaches with generally a stubborn demeanor. If he's able to improve his fastball command, there is reason to believe that Bauer will still become a very good big league starter, but he will continue his development in Cleveland after being acquired by the Indians in December. With less starting pitching depth around him in his new organization, it is much easier to envision a scenario where he breaks camp as a member of the Tribe's rotation.
After a dominant career at UCLA, Bauer was the third overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft and the D-Backs wasted little time getting him acclimated to pro ball. Although he did not reach Arizona in September, Bauer worked 25.2 innings between High-A Visalia and Double-A Mobile while compiling an impressive 43:12 K:BB over seven starts. Bauer has drawn comparisons to Tim Lincecum, and he profiles to be the ace in a very good young Arizona rotation for years to come. The 21-year-old is extremely polished and offers a five-pitch arsenal led by a plus-plus curveball. Even if he doesn't break camp with the D-Backs, he should be up for good in 2012.
More Fantasy News
Returns from DL for Friday's start
PCleveland Indians
September 21, 2018
Bauer (lower leg) was activated off the 10-day disabled list ahead of Friday's start against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Returning for short start Friday
PCleveland Indians
Lower Leg
September 19, 2018
Bauer (lower leg) will return from the disabled list to make a short start Friday against the Red Sox, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nearly ready to return
PCleveland Indians
Lower Leg
September 18, 2018
Bauer (lower leg) felt good after a simulated game Tuesday and is nearly ready to return to game action, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reports.
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Could pitch out of bullpen in playoffs
PCleveland Indians
Lower Leg
September 17, 2018
Team president Chris Antonetti told MLB Network Radio that Bauer (lower leg) could pitch out of the bullpen during the playoffs. "It's definitely something we talked about," Antonetti said.
ANALYSIS
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Set to face hitters Tuesday
PCleveland Indians
Lower Leg
September 15, 2018
Bauer (lower leg) threw a 40-pitch bullpen session Saturday and will pitch to hitters prior to Cleveland's game against the White Sox on Tuesday, Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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