Adam Conley
Adam Conley
28-Year-Old PitcherRP
Miami Marlins
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The southpaw battled for a rotation spot during spring training, but his continued struggles got him sent to the minors to start the season. He struggled there as well, but he got a callup to Miami in mid-May and shifted to the bullpen. In this new role, Conley thrived, ramping his average fastball velocity up to 95.3 miles per hour and maintaining a 1.42 ERA and 0.79 WHIP into the month of July. Things fell off a bit afterward as his final 4.09 ERA suggests, though a 3.63 FIP paints a slightly more encouraging picture. Conley raised his strikeout rate to nearly a batter per inning, and he allowed less than one home run per nine innings. All in all, Conley established himself as a viable big-league bullpen arm, though the same can't be said for him as a fantasy asset. Until he strikes out more batters or has a path to saves, he won't warrant much consideration. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $1.13 million contract with the Marlins in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Grabs third hold
PMiami Marlins
April 20, 2019
Conley faced one batter in Friday's win over the Nationals, getting Juan Soto to pop out to record his third hold of the season.
The lefty remains firmly in the late-inning mix for the Marlins despite his 7.71 ERA and 2.14 WHIP through seven innings. Conley has made 10 appearances and has a save to go along with his holds, although he's also been tagged with two losses. His poor ratios are at least partially due to bad luck -- he has a .423 BABIP against -- and Conley's 96.2 mph fastball average is the highest of his career, so his numbers should improve over the summer.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .247 223 36 15 49 11 3 8
Since 2017vs Right .274 479 91 48 114 22 4 17
2019vs Left .444 20 1 1 8 3 1 0
2019vs Right .286 17 4 2 4 2 0 1
2018vs Left .179 92 19 10 14 5 0 2
2018vs Right .228 110 31 8 23 6 1 3
2017vs Left .265 111 16 4 27 3 2 6
2017vs Right .289 352 56 38 87 14 3 13
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA on Road
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
Since 2017Home 5.65 1.30 73.1 4 6 2 5.8 3.3 1.1
Since 2017Away 5.48 1.51 87.0 7 8 2 8.3 3.7 1.7
2019Home 8.44 1.88 5.1 0 1 0 5.1 1.7 1.7
2019Away 5.40 3.00 1.2 0 1 1 10.8 10.8 0.0
2018Home 2.13 0.87 25.1 1 1 2 7.5 3.2 0.4
2018Away 6.04 1.30 25.1 2 3 1 10.3 3.2 1.4
2017Home 7.38 1.48 42.2 3 4 0 4.9 3.6 1.5
2017Away 5.25 1.55 60.0 5 4 0 7.4 3.8 1.8
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Stat Review
How does Adam Conley compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
96.2 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
The ERA estimators suggest Conley deserved better last season, but not much better (5.62 FIP, 5.59 xFIP, 5.32 SIERA). After a promising run in 2016, Conley's strikeout rate tumbled by two per nine (to 6.3 K/9), coinciding with a 1.5-mph dip in average fastball velocity. Conley's home-run rate nearly doubled to 1.67 HR/9 as his hard-hit rate exploded, going from 31.3 percent to 38.7 percent according to FanGraphs. Same-handed hitters got to Conley for a .345 wOBA and his performance over 12 starts at Triple-A left a lot to be desired as well. The Marlins are going to need arms to eat innings in the first year of their latest rebuild and Conley should be secure in his role as a starter, but volume alone does not a worthwhile mixed-league bench piece make. He will need to show flashes of his 2016 form in spring training to even be considered a viable NL-only option.
Conley parlayed a promising second half in 2015 to a rotation spot in 2016, taking a regular turn until he was felled in early August with left third finger tendinitis. The southpaw recovered in time to make three starts to close the season, capping what must be considered a disappointing campaign, at least in terms of WHIP as Conley's walk rate surged to an unsightly 4.2 BB/9. This won't work for a hurler sporting a strikeout rate a tad above league average. However, it should be noted based on the percentage of balls Conley threw, a BB/9 in the 3.3 range was expected. This is still high but certainly palatable. Assuming Conley can cut down on the free passes, and the metrics along with history are in his favor, he's a mid-rotation MLB arm and back-end fantasy starter who rarely pitches more than six frames. That can be an asset in mixed leagues, especially since streaming for home starts in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park provides a nice safety net.
Although 2014 was a disappointing year for Conley, the 25-year-old bounced back in 2015. With Triple-A New Orleans, Conley accumulated a 2.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 18 starts, which earned him a regular spot in the Marlins' rotation in July. He held his own in the majors as well, going 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. While his 3.87 FIP and 2.8 BB/9 were fairly weak, Conley was usually able to work out of trouble, and his success against right-handers (.308 wOBA) bodes well for him going forward. This strong showing should make the lefty a candidate for a rotation spot out of spring training, but he needs more proven success at the major league level to garner attention in shallow mixed leagues.
Overall, Conley took a step back while graduating to Triple-A in 2014, registering a poor 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 60 innings pitched in the Pacific Coast League. He lost six weeks to an elbow injury early in the summer while also seeing his strikeout rate dip to 18.1% in 2014 from 22.4% during his breakout 2013 campaign. The 6-foot-3 left-hander is likely to head back to Triple-A at the start of the 2015 season to work on his command and get back on track as a developing pitching talent. The Marlins’ rotational depth will make a major league opportunity hard to come by for Conley coming out of the spring, but if he shows progress as a starter in the minors, he could earn a look as a reliever or spot starter at some point during the summer.
Conley, a 23-year-old lefty hurler, polished off an impressive 11-win season at Double-A Jacksonville with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 129 strikeouts in 138.2 innings. Conley's solid strikeout ability combined with advanced control (6.4% walk rate in 2013) has helped him quickly rise through the Marlins' system since being a second-round selection in the 2011 draft. He's likely tabbed for more seasoning in the minors to start 2014, but Conley could alter those plans with a solid spring, as he has pitched well at every stop thus far.
Conley was dominant in his time at Low-A Greensboro, positing a 7-3 record with a 2.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 14 starts (74.1 inning pitched) before being bumped up to High-A Jupiter. Following the promotion, he hit a bit of a rough patch, registering a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 52.2 innings. Overall, the 22-year-old made good progress during the season while putting up a strong 135:43 K:BB in 127.0 innings. Heading into 2013, the former college closer is expected to remain a starter as he continues to develop an arsenal of secondary pitches to complement his mid-90s heater.
More Fantasy News
Notches first save
PMiami Marlins
April 6, 2019
Conley gave up a hit and a walk while striking out one in two-thirds of an inning to record his first save of the season in Saturday's 4-2 win over the Braves.
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Takes loss against Rockies
PMiami Marlins
March 30, 2019
Conley (0-1) took the loss Friday against the Rockies, allowing one run on two hits in an inning of relief.
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Strong spring continues
PMiami Marlins
March 17, 2019
Conley struck out two and gave up a hit in 1.2 scoreless innings during Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Mets.
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Could see save opportunities
PMiami Marlins
February 13, 2019
Conley is considered a frontrunner to split the closer's role in 2019, Joe Frisaro of reports.
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Avoids arbitration with Miami
PMiami Marlins
January 11, 2019
Conley signed a one-year, $1.125 million contract with the Marlins on Friday to avoid arbitration, Robert Murray of The Athletic reports.
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