Adam Conley
Adam Conley
30-Year-Old PitcherRP
Miami Marlins
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Following a bounce-back 2018 campaign, Conley took an obvious step back in 2019. While his fastball sat around 95 mph throughout the year, he turned in a dismal 6.53 ERA and 1.73 WHIP with a 53:29 K:BB over 60.2 frames out of the bullpen. He finished with a 2-11 record while registering two saves. The 29-year-old southpaw's FIP sat at 5.19 for the year, indicating that he didn't pitch as nearly as bad as his ERA would suggest, though he was unable to put together another solid season after posting a 3.60 FIP in 2018. Conley also ended the season with a .351 BABIP, easily a career worst. The good news is that he's shown the ability to be a reliable reliever with electric stuff, the key will be putting the 2019 campaign behind him. As a part of a struggling Miami team, he could emerge as a high-leverage reliever if he can find consistency. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Agreed to a one-year, $1.525 million deal with the Marlins in January of 2020.
Clears waivers
PMiami Marlins  AAA
September 7, 2020
The Marlins outrighted Conley to their alternate training site Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Conley lost his spot on the 40-man roster after being designated for assignment Aug. 31, but he'll remain in the organization after none of MLB's other 29 teams scooped him up off waivers. The reliever hasn't appeared in the big leagues in 2020 after posting a 6.53 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over 60 appearances with Miami last season.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .270 211 38 19 50 15 2 3
Since 2018vs Right .261 274 65 28 63 13 2 12
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Left .336 119 19 9 36 10 2 1
2019vs Right .286 164 34 20 40 7 1 9
2018vs Left .179 92 19 10 14 5 0 2
2018vs Right .228 110 31 8 23 6 1 3
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-25%
ERA at Home
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-65%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 4.68 1.42 59.2 1 6 3 8.1 3.3 0.9
Since 2018Away 6.27 1.45 51.2 4 9 2 8.5 4.4 1.6
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 6.55 1.83 34.1 0 5 1 8.7 3.4 1.3
2019Away 6.49 1.59 26.1 2 6 1 6.8 5.5 1.7
2018Home 2.13 0.87 25.1 1 1 2 7.5 3.2 0.4
2018Away 6.04 1.30 25.1 2 3 1 10.3 3.2 1.4
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
The southpaw battled for a rotation spot during spring training, but his continued struggles got him sent to the minors to start the season. He struggled there as well, but he got a callup to Miami in mid-May and shifted to the bullpen. In this new role, Conley thrived, ramping his average fastball velocity up to 95.3 miles per hour and maintaining a 1.42 ERA and 0.79 WHIP into the month of July. Things fell off a bit afterward as his final 4.09 ERA suggests, though a 3.63 FIP paints a slightly more encouraging picture. Conley raised his strikeout rate to nearly a batter per inning, and he allowed less than one home run per nine innings. All in all, Conley established himself as a viable big-league bullpen arm, though the same can't be said for him as a fantasy asset. Until he strikes out more batters or has a path to saves, he won't warrant much consideration.
The ERA estimators suggest Conley deserved better last season, but not much better (5.62 FIP, 5.59 xFIP, 5.32 SIERA). After a promising run in 2016, Conley's strikeout rate tumbled by two per nine (to 6.3 K/9), coinciding with a 1.5-mph dip in average fastball velocity. Conley's home-run rate nearly doubled to 1.67 HR/9 as his hard-hit rate exploded, going from 31.3 percent to 38.7 percent according to FanGraphs. Same-handed hitters got to Conley for a .345 wOBA and his performance over 12 starts at Triple-A left a lot to be desired as well. The Marlins are going to need arms to eat innings in the first year of their latest rebuild and Conley should be secure in his role as a starter, but volume alone does not a worthwhile mixed-league bench piece make. He will need to show flashes of his 2016 form in spring training to even be considered a viable NL-only option.
Conley parlayed a promising second half in 2015 to a rotation spot in 2016, taking a regular turn until he was felled in early August with left third finger tendinitis. The southpaw recovered in time to make three starts to close the season, capping what must be considered a disappointing campaign, at least in terms of WHIP as Conley's walk rate surged to an unsightly 4.2 BB/9. This won't work for a hurler sporting a strikeout rate a tad above league average. However, it should be noted based on the percentage of balls Conley threw, a BB/9 in the 3.3 range was expected. This is still high but certainly palatable. Assuming Conley can cut down on the free passes, and the metrics along with history are in his favor, he's a mid-rotation MLB arm and back-end fantasy starter who rarely pitches more than six frames. That can be an asset in mixed leagues, especially since streaming for home starts in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park provides a nice safety net.
Although 2014 was a disappointing year for Conley, the 25-year-old bounced back in 2015. With Triple-A New Orleans, Conley accumulated a 2.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 18 starts, which earned him a regular spot in the Marlins' rotation in July. He held his own in the majors as well, going 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. While his 3.87 FIP and 2.8 BB/9 were fairly weak, Conley was usually able to work out of trouble, and his success against right-handers (.308 wOBA) bodes well for him going forward. This strong showing should make the lefty a candidate for a rotation spot out of spring training, but he needs more proven success at the major league level to garner attention in shallow mixed leagues.
Overall, Conley took a step back while graduating to Triple-A in 2014, registering a poor 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 60 innings pitched in the Pacific Coast League. He lost six weeks to an elbow injury early in the summer while also seeing his strikeout rate dip to 18.1% in 2014 from 22.4% during his breakout 2013 campaign. The 6-foot-3 left-hander is likely to head back to Triple-A at the start of the 2015 season to work on his command and get back on track as a developing pitching talent. The Marlins’ rotational depth will make a major league opportunity hard to come by for Conley coming out of the spring, but if he shows progress as a starter in the minors, he could earn a look as a reliever or spot starter at some point during the summer.
Conley, a 23-year-old lefty hurler, polished off an impressive 11-win season at Double-A Jacksonville with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 129 strikeouts in 138.2 innings. Conley's solid strikeout ability combined with advanced control (6.4% walk rate in 2013) has helped him quickly rise through the Marlins' system since being a second-round selection in the 2011 draft. He's likely tabbed for more seasoning in the minors to start 2014, but Conley could alter those plans with a solid spring, as he has pitched well at every stop thus far.
Conley was dominant in his time at Low-A Greensboro, positing a 7-3 record with a 2.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over 14 starts (74.1 inning pitched) before being bumped up to High-A Jupiter. Following the promotion, he hit a bit of a rough patch, registering a 4.44 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over 52.2 innings. Overall, the 22-year-old made good progress during the season while putting up a strong 135:43 K:BB in 127.0 innings. Heading into 2013, the former college closer is expected to remain a starter as he continues to develop an arsenal of secondary pitches to complement his mid-90s heater.
More Fantasy News
Activated and DFA'd
PMiami Marlins  AAA
August 31, 2020
The Marlins activated Conley (undisclosed) from the 10-day injured list Sunday and designated him for assignment.
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Placed on 10-day IL
PMiami Marlins  AAA
Undisclosed
August 4, 2020
Conley (undisclosed) has been placed on the 10-day injured list, Jared Diamond of The Wall Street Journal reports.
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Hanging on to bullpen spot
PMiami Marlins  AAA
March 23, 2020
Conley posted a 3.52 ERA and 8:4 K:BB through 7.2 innings this spring before MLB was put on pause.
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Avoids arbitration with Marlins
PMiami Marlins  AAA
January 10, 2020
Conley agreed to a one-year, $1.525 million deal with the Marlins on Friday, avoiding arbitration, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio reports.
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Gets final out in win
PMiami Marlins  AAA
August 9, 2019
Conley got the final out of Thursday's 9-2 win over Atlanta.
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