Nick Ahmed
Nick Ahmed
30-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Arizona Diamondbacks
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Defense may not "count" in fantasy baseball, but it is tied closely to playing time, and in Ahmed's case, his stellar defense afforded his bat a lot of time to come along. Ahmed's bat will never be as good as his glove, but he has made significant strides over the last two years after at one point looking like a lost cause at the plate, with wRC+ marks ranging from 34-76 over his first four MLB seasons (100 is average). Ahmed has trimmed his chase rate by a whopping 10 percentage points since 2017 while still swinging at roughly half of the pitches he sees and swinging at even more pitches in the zone. He's lifted his walk rate from 5.6% to 8.3% since 2017 while nearly tripling his barrel rate (to 6.6% in 2019). The steals aren't really bankable as he enters his 30s and it's not a star profile, but his offensive improvements are real and his defense should assure the volume is there again in 2020. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#434
ADP
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$Signed a four-year, $32.5 million contract extension with the Diamondbacks in February of 2020.
Swipes two bags
SSArizona Diamondbacks
August 10, 2020
Ahmed went 3-for-4 with three runs scored, one RBI, a walk and two stolen bases in Monday's 12-8 victory over Colorado.
ANALYSIS
Ahmed entered Monday's game batting just .137 before producing his first multi-hit effort of the season. His two stolen bases were also his first of the season. The 30-year-old is sporting a pedestrian .553 OPS with just two extra-base hits across 61 plate appearances, but a series in Coors Field appears to be just what the doctor ordered.
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Batting Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
13
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
3
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+24%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+16%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+36%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+16%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left .833 368 50 15 52 2 .276 .329 .504
Since 2018vs Right .670 886 98 22 106 13 .227 .290 .380
2020vs Left .610 17 3 1 3 1 .188 .235 .375
2020vs Right .527 48 5 1 3 1 .186 .271 .256
2019vs Left .938 159 26 6 24 1 .312 .377 .560
2019vs Right .690 466 53 13 58 7 .234 .295 .395
2018vs Left .769 192 21 8 25 0 .256 .297 .472
2018vs Right .664 372 40 8 45 5 .223 .286 .378
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+23%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
2018
Even Split
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home .703 621 74 16 78 8 .232 .302 .401
Since 2018Away .733 633 74 21 80 7 .250 .300 .433
2020Home .481 24 2 1 2 0 .136 .208 .273
2020Away .590 41 6 1 4 2 .216 .293 .297
2019Home .722 310 38 8 35 4 .238 .317 .405
2019Away .781 315 41 11 47 4 .268 .314 .467
2018Home .701 287 34 7 41 4 .235 .294 .408
2018Away .699 277 27 9 29 1 .234 .285 .414
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Stat Review
How does Nick Ahmed compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.50
 
BB Rate
9.2%
 
K Rate
18.5%
 
BABIP
.200
 
ISO
.102
 
AVG
.186
 
OBP
.262
 
SLG
.288
 
OPS
.550
 
wOBA
.252
 
Exit Velocity
84.3 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
38.3%
 
Barrels/PA
8.2%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Ahmed was finally able to stay healthy in 2018, playing in a career-high 153 games after making just 143 appearances from 2016-17. The 28-year-old enjoyed a career year after breaking camp as Arizona's starting shortstop. He lived up to his billing as an elite defender, tying Andrelton Simmons for the most defensive runs saved (21) at the position en route to winning his first Gold Glove. Ahmed wasn’t as successful on offense, however, finishing 16% worse than league average at the dish. His .234/.290/.411 line was a step down across the board from his 2017 triple-slash, though he did manage to set new personal bests with 16 homers, 54 extra-base hits, 70 RBI and 61 runs. Ahmed’s glove should keep him from falling into a platoon despite his career .596 OPS against same-handed pitching, and his improved power production, which he credits to a change in approach, should keep him relevant as a middle-infield option in deeper leagues.
Ahmed suffered a hand injury in June that cost him most of the second half, and while playing in rehab games at Triple-A in the final stages of his recovery, he was hit in the wrist by a pitch, which caused a fracture that ended his season. Heralded as a good defender, Ahmed can play anywhere in the infield as needed, which gives him value to the D-backs as a late-inning sub off the bench, and as an occasional spot starters against left-handed pitching. He took a small step forward as a hitter last season, putting together the best slash line of his four seasons in Arizona (.251/.298/.419). Given the uncertainty about his playing time, and the limitations he has shown as a hitter, Ahmed is likely limited to middle-infield filler status in NL-only formats. It's expected that he'll begin spring training completely healthy after undergoing surgery to repair the fractured wrist in early September.
Ahmed has the look of one of those players who is much more valuable in real baseball than fantasy baseball. That's because fantasy baseball generally doesn't evaluate defense, which is where Ahmed really shines. At the plate, he's been nothing special in his three MLB seasons. He's a career .221 hitter who doesn't hit for much power or steal many bases. Working in Ahmed's favor is the fact that the Diamondbacks seem to value his glove enough to keep him in the lineup most days when healthy (he was shut down last August following hip surgery), so the volume should be there. But that's about all that can be said for Ahmed. Until he displays more life at the plate, he's really not someone worth owning. There are better hitting middle-infield options out there.
In his first full season in the majors, Ahmed was great in the field but subpar at the plate. The 25-year-old shortstop batted just .226, with an anemic .275 on-base percentage. Ahmed added nine home runs and four stolen bases, though he was also caught stealing five times. Defense doesn’t matter much in fantasy, so the hope is that Ahmed can progress offensively in 2016. He started slowly in 2015, but showed signs of life toward the end of the season, collecting hits in 15 of his last 50 plate appearances before being shut down due to a back injury. After the Diamondbacks acquired Jean Segura it was thought Ahmed might lose out on most of his playing time, but it sounds like they value his glove enough to move Segura to second base occasionally. Still, even if Segura wasn't in the picture, Ahmed would be unappealing. The onus will be on him to improve at the plate in 2016 before fantasy owners should feel compelled to invest.
Ahmed spent most of 2014 at Triple-A Reno, shuttling between second base and shortstop as part of the Diamondbacks' excess of middle-infield options. Chris Owings' shoulder injury in June cleared the path for Ahmed's big league debut, but he didn't hit enough to remain on the roster for the entire second half. In terms of tools, Ahmed projects as a steady contact hitter with very limited power. Defensively, he has the range and versatility to be an average or better option around the infield. The sum of those parts yields a regular destined to hit in the bottom third of the order failing the development of an elite eye at the plate (8.2% BB% at Triple-A in 2014), but Ahmed may prove capable stealing 15-20 bases annually provided that he doesn't occupy a place hitting directly in front of a pitcher. It would hardly be surprising to see him stick around in a utility role in 2015, as Ahmed has very little to gain by spending additional time in the Pacific Coast League.
More Fantasy News
Slugs second home run
SSArizona Diamondbacks
August 9, 2020
Ahmed went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run in Sunday's 9-5 loss to the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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Digging out of early hole
SSArizona Diamondbacks
August 8, 2020
Ahmed went 1-for-3 in Friday's 3-0 loss to San Diego.
ANALYSIS
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Two-run blast in blowout win
SSArizona Diamondbacks
August 5, 2020
Ahmed went 1-for-4 with a two-run home run in Wednesday's 14-7 win over the Astros.
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Reaches base twice
SSArizona Diamondbacks
August 5, 2020
Ahmed went 1-for-3 with a walk in Tuesday's loss against the Astros.
ANALYSIS
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Hitless in return
SSArizona Diamondbacks
August 2, 2020
Ahmed returned to the lineup Saturday and went 0-for-3 in an 11-2 loss to the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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