Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Chicago Cubs
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Hendricks had one rocky month (7.03 ERA in June) but was otherwise very good in 2018, finishing as a top-30 starting pitcher in terms of earned value. He threw a career-high 199 innings and induced a ton of weak contact -- his opponents' soft-contact rate was among the highest in the league. Hendricks' changeup graded out as the absolute best among qualified starters by FanGraphs' Pitch Values. His fastball averages a mere 86.9 mph, but because of the movement and deception, the pitch graded out as above average. He's never going to be a huge strikeout pitcher with his arsenal (7.6 K/9 for career), but Hendricks is one of the smartest players in baseball and he's proven effective with the way he mixes his pitches and approaches certain hitters differently. He still has a good defense behind him and a good offense powering him, so Hendricks should once again be a coveted arm on draft day. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $55.6 million contract extension with the Cubs in March of 2019. Contract includes a $16 million vesting option ($1 million buyout) for 2024.
Fans 11 in first victory
PChicago Cubs
April 19, 2019
Hendricks (1-3) secured the win by striking out 11 over seven scoreless innings Friday against the Diamondbacks. He allowed three runs and two walks.
Hendricks turned in his most impressive outing of 2019 to this point, blanking Arizona through seven frames while receiving more than enough run support to earn his first win. The 29-year-old has held his opponents to two or fewer runs in three of his four starts, although the issue has been his ability to work deep into ballgames. His longest outing entering the day had been five innings versus the Angels. Hendricks will carry a 3.54 ERA with 21 punchouts over 20.1 frames into his next start, which looks to come Thursday against the Dodgers.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .240 694 166 53 151 23 4 21
Since 2017vs Right .258 781 139 38 186 27 1 21
2019vs Left .302 49 15 4 13 2 0 2
2019vs Right .341 44 6 3 14 0 0 1
2018vs Left .233 374 87 22 80 13 4 10
2018vs Right .259 438 74 22 104 18 1 12
2017vs Left .241 271 64 27 58 8 0 9
2017vs Right .243 299 59 13 68 9 0 8
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA at Home
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA on Road
Since 2017Home 3.23 1.16 192.0 12 11 0 7.7 2.4 1.0
Since 2017Away 3.34 1.23 167.0 10 8 0 7.6 2.1 1.1
2019Home 1.50 1.00 12.0 1 1 0 9.8 2.3 0.0
2019Away 6.48 2.64 8.1 0 2 0 8.6 4.3 3.2
2018Home 3.46 1.10 104.0 7 7 0 7.6 1.9 1.0
2018Away 3.41 1.20 95.0 7 4 0 6.9 2.1 1.0
2017Home 3.20 1.28 76.0 4 3 0 7.5 3.2 1.3
2017Away 2.83 1.08 63.2 3 2 0 8.5 1.8 0.8
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Stat Review
How does Kyle Hendricks compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
86.1 mph
Strand %
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Even though his ERA rose by nearly a run last season, Hendricks solidified himself as the Cubs' ace while Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta saw their numbers plunge following the team's World Series-winning campaign. With a fastball that sits in the mid-to-high-80s, Hendricks isn't a prototypical top-of-the-rotation arm, but his brilliance lies in his ability to stay ahead of hitters in the count, avoid mistakes and eat innings efficiently. Those attributes rarely yield lofty strikeout totals for the right-hander, but Hendricks is capable of netting fantasy owners above-average production in wins, ERA and WHIP so long as the offense and defense supporting him remain strong. Staying healthy was an issue for Hendricks in 2017 and prevented him from justifying his draft-day price, but he was sensational upon returning from right hand tendinitis in late July and presents little risk heading into spring training. He turned in a 2.19 ERA and 3.79 K/BB after the All-Star break, both of which were roughly in line with his 2016 marks.
Hendricks took another step forward in 2016 and established himself as one of the best starters in the National League. Concerns about his strikeout rate in 2015 were erased as he improved his swinging-strike rate to a career-high 10 percent, while maintaining the pinpoint control he's shown throughout his time as a professional. While he does not overpower opposing hitters, Hendricks locates his offerings exceptionally well, and he consistently works ahead in the count by pounding the strike zone early (his 68.6 percent first-strike rate tied him with Johnny Cueto as the MLB leader among qualified starters). His changeup continues to be his best pitch, and that offering generated the fourth-most swinging strikes among all changeups league-wide last season. Even though his skills appear to be stable, Hendricks' ERA seems almost certain to rise, but he could stay below the 3.00 mark if the defense behind him continues to rank as the league's best.
Hendricks saw a substantial gain in strikeout rate last year, from 5.3 K/9 to 8.4, despite zero increase in his swinging-strike rate. Called strikes were the stark difference in his profile, as his called strike rate jumped six percentage points to 38-percent, third-highest among qualified starters. He shifted to a sinker-changeup focus and he buries both pitches low & away to righties and lefties for called strikes: sinker for righties, change for lefties. Hendricks also exploits the biggest general change in the strike zone as a means to gain a lot of these strikeouts: the lower third. He threw 52-percent of his pitches in the lower third, 13th-highest among the 78 qualified starters. He leveraged the framing of Miguel Montero and David Ross as well, posting an 8.8 K/9 (24-percent K rate) with them. The strikeouts will likely decline without some added swing-and-miss, but his groundball lean and penchant for strikes should enable him to maintain solid value.
Hendricks has put a lot of innings on his young arm, but if you're going to pitch as well as he has, 180 innings seems appropriate. He blew threw the minors in less than four years, dominating at every stop, before he got the call from the Cubs last year, when he finished 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts. Hendricks' excellent control (15 walks in 80.1 innings) contributed to his strong results, but his strikeout rate was poor. He had good strikeout rates in the minors, so there is hope that he can improve in that area. If he does, Hendricks will become much more useful to fantasy owners.
The Dartmouth-educated Hendricks was the Cubs' Minor League Pitcher of the Year when he went 13-4 with a 2.00 ERA between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. Even better was the outstanding 128:34 K:BB ratio in 166.1 innings. Given his success on the field and between the ears, it looks like he could be spending time in Chicago this season.
More Fantasy News
Takes third loss
PChicago Cubs
April 13, 2019
Hendricks (0-3) allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits with two strikeouts and a walk across five innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday.
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Saddled with loss
PChicago Cubs
April 7, 2019
Hendricks (0-2) gave up four runs on eight hits with one walk while striking out four through four innings in a loss to the Brewers on Sunday.
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Rocked for seven runs
PChicago Cubs
April 1, 2019
Hendricks (0-1) yielded seven runs (two earned) on 10 hits and three walks in 4.1 innings during Monday's 8-0 loss to Atlanta. He coughed up two home runs and struck out four.
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Signs four-year extension
PChicago Cubs
March 26, 2019
Hendricks signed a four-year extension with the Cubs on Tuesday that includes a vesting option for a fifth season, Jordan Bastian of reports.
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Likely to be fourth starter
PChicago Cubs
March 25, 2019
Hendricks is slated to be the Cubs' fourth starter to begin the season behind Jon Lester, Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, Carrie Muskat of reports.
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