Kyle Hendricks
Kyle Hendricks
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Chicago Cubs
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Even though his ERA rose by nearly a run last season, Hendricks solidified himself as the Cubs' ace while Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta saw their numbers plunge following the team's World Series-winning campaign. With a fastball that sits in the mid-to-high-80s, Hendricks isn't a prototypical top-of-the-rotation arm, but his brilliance lies in his ability to stay ahead of hitters in the count, avoid mistakes and eat innings efficiently. Those attributes rarely yield lofty strikeout totals for the right-hander, but Hendricks is capable of netting fantasy owners above-average production in wins, ERA and WHIP so long as the offense and defense supporting him remain strong. Staying healthy was an issue for Hendricks in 2017 and prevented him from justifying his draft-day price, but he was sensational upon returning from right hand tendinitis in late July and presents little risk heading into spring training. He turned in a 2.19 ERA and 3.79 K/BB after the All-Star break, both of which were roughly in line with his 2016 marks. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Agreed to a one-year, $4.175 million deal with the Cubs in January of 2018 to avoid arbitration.
Excellent in win over Diamondbacks
PChicago Cubs
September 17, 2018
Hendricks (12-11) almost went the distance on Monday against the Diamondbacks. He picked up the win by pitching 8.2 innings and allowing one run on three hits and one walk while striking out eight.
ANALYSIS
Hendricks was dazzling on Monday as he carried a shutout into the ninth. While he gave up a leadoff homer to A.J. Pollock, it was a two-out single by Paul Goldschmidt that knocked him out of the game for good. Hendricks hasn't given up more than two runs in a start in a month, and he'll look to keep it going over the weekend against the White Sox.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .234 940 216 65 200 35 5 25
Since 2016vs Right .232 1127 231 61 241 36 2 29
2018vs Left .242 350 81 21 78 12 4 10
2018vs Right .259 402 73 21 95 14 1 12
2017vs Left .241 271 64 27 58 8 0 9
2017vs Right .243 299 59 13 68 9 0 8
2016vs Left .219 319 71 17 64 15 1 6
2016vs Right .198 426 99 27 78 13 1 9
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-16%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-1%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-12%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-55%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 2.66 1.06 267.1 19 12 0 8.0 2.1 0.9
Since 2016Away 3.15 1.15 245.2 16 12 0 7.7 2.4 1.0
2018Home 3.56 1.09 96.0 6 7 0 8.1 1.9 1.0
2018Away 3.61 1.26 87.1 6 4 0 7.0 2.3 1.1
2017Home 3.20 1.28 76.0 4 3 0 7.5 3.2 1.3
2017Away 2.83 1.08 63.2 3 2 0 8.5 1.8 0.8
2016Home 1.32 0.86 95.1 9 2 0 8.4 1.3 0.4
2016Away 2.95 1.10 94.2 7 6 0 7.7 2.9 1.0
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Stat Review
How does Kyle Hendricks compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.67
 
K/9
7.6
 
BB/9
2.1
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
86.9 mph
 
ERA
3.58
 
WHIP
1.17
 
BABIP
.294
 
GB/FB
1.71
 
Strand %
73.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
2014
Hendricks took another step forward in 2016 and established himself as one of the best starters in the National League. Concerns about his strikeout rate in 2015 were erased as he improved his swinging-strike rate to a career-high 10 percent, while maintaining the pinpoint control he's shown throughout his time as a professional. While he does not overpower opposing hitters, Hendricks locates his offerings exceptionally well, and he consistently works ahead in the count by pounding the strike zone early (his 68.6 percent first-strike rate tied him with Johnny Cueto as the MLB leader among qualified starters). His changeup continues to be his best pitch, and that offering generated the fourth-most swinging strikes among all changeups league-wide last season. Even though his skills appear to be stable, Hendricks' ERA seems almost certain to rise, but he could stay below the 3.00 mark if the defense behind him continues to rank as the league's best.
Hendricks saw a substantial gain in strikeout rate last year, from 5.3 K/9 to 8.4, despite zero increase in his swinging-strike rate. Called strikes were the stark difference in his profile, as his called strike rate jumped six percentage points to 38-percent, third-highest among qualified starters. He shifted to a sinker-changeup focus and he buries both pitches low & away to righties and lefties for called strikes: sinker for righties, change for lefties. Hendricks also exploits the biggest general change in the strike zone as a means to gain a lot of these strikeouts: the lower third. He threw 52-percent of his pitches in the lower third, 13th-highest among the 78 qualified starters. He leveraged the framing of Miguel Montero and David Ross as well, posting an 8.8 K/9 (24-percent K rate) with them. The strikeouts will likely decline without some added swing-and-miss, but his groundball lean and penchant for strikes should enable him to maintain solid value.
Hendricks has put a lot of innings on his young arm, but if you're going to pitch as well as he has, 180 innings seems appropriate. He blew threw the minors in less than four years, dominating at every stop, before he got the call from the Cubs last year, when he finished 7-2 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts. Hendricks' excellent control (15 walks in 80.1 innings) contributed to his strong results, but his strikeout rate was poor. He had good strikeout rates in the minors, so there is hope that he can improve in that area. If he does, Hendricks will become much more useful to fantasy owners.
The Dartmouth-educated Hendricks was the Cubs' Minor League Pitcher of the Year when he went 13-4 with a 2.00 ERA between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa. Even better was the outstanding 128:34 K:BB ratio in 166.1 innings. Given his success on the field and between the ears, it looks like he could be spending time in Chicago this season.
More Fantasy News
Solid in loss to Brewers
PChicago Cubs
September 12, 2018
Hendricks (11-11) took the loss Wednesday, giving up two runs on five hits and a walk over five innings while striking out five as the Cubs fell 5-1 to the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Goes five innings in no-decision
PChicago Cubs
September 6, 2018
Hendricks gave up four runs (one earned) on six hits over five innings and did not factor into the decision in Thursday's 10-inning win over the Nationals. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Stifles Phillies for 11th win
PChicago Cubs
September 1, 2018
Hendricks (11-10) picked up the win Saturday, allowing one run on six hits and two walks over six innings while striking out four in a 7-1 victory over the Phillies.
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Earns 10th win with scoreless outing
PChicago Cubs
August 26, 2018
Hendricks (10-10) fired seven shutout innings and earned a victory Sunday, allowing just two hits and a walk while striking out five in the 9-0 win over the Reds.
ANALYSIS
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Gives up two runs in loss
PChicago Cubs
August 21, 2018
Hendricks (9-10) took the loss Tuesday against the Tigers, allowing two earned runs on 10 hits and a walk. He struck out three.
ANALYSIS
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