Bryan Mitchell
Bryan Mitchell
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
San Diego Padres
2018 Fantasy Outlook
An offseason trade saw Mitchell land with the Padres, who plan to deploy him as a starter in 2018. Mitchell averaged better than a strikeout per inning as a starter while with the Yankees' Triple-A affiliate in 2017 (9.3 K/9), but that number tumbled to just 4.7 K/9 as he worked mostly in relief with the big-league team. The right-hander clocks in the mid-90s with his fastball and he throws his curveball hard as well (82.8 mph average) with great movement/drop on the pitch. That movement helps Mitchell induce groundballs at a high clip (54.1 percent groundball rate last season) and in turn limit the long balls (0.55 HR/9). Pitching in Petco Park should accentuate that strength. Mitchell's control can be spotty and until he shows better command, he will be a tough sell in standard leagues, but the combination of opportunity and stuff makes Mitchell an interesting flier in NL-only and deep draft-and-hold formats. Read Past Outlooks
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Falters in loss
PSan Diego Padres
September 18, 2018
Mitchell (1-4) took the loss after giving up four runs on nine hits (two home runs) with four strikeouts over five innings Monday against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
Mitchell appeared to be turning his horrendous season around with two solid outings after rejoining the Padres' rotation Sept. 3, but Monday's rough start was a step in the wrong direction. The 27-year-old will get a chance to redeem himself against these same Giants on the road next Monday.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-20%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-29%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
2016
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .254 224 30 37 47 13 2 4
Since 2016vs Right .319 315 25 28 90 14 1 9
2018vs Left .240 131 14 25 25 7 1 3
2018vs Right .338 148 13 15 44 5 1 7
2017vs Left .273 50 7 6 12 4 0 1
2017vs Right .316 103 10 7 30 6 0 1
2016vs Left .270 43 9 6 10 2 1 0
2016vs Right .281 64 2 6 16 3 0 1
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-48%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-37%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-7%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 6.53 1.85 61.0 2 5 0 4.8 5.2 0.9
Since 2016Away 4.09 1.58 54.0 1 1 1 3.6 4.7 1.1
2018Home 7.60 2.04 34.1 0 3 0 5.0 6.6 1.3
2018Away 3.96 1.56 25.0 1 0 0 2.9 5.4 1.8
2017Home 7.43 1.73 13.1 1 1 0 5.4 2.7 0.7
2017Away 4.66 1.66 19.1 0 0 1 4.2 4.2 0.5
2016Home 3.14 1.53 14.1 1 1 0 3.8 4.4 0.0
2016Away 3.38 1.50 10.2 0 1 0 4.2 4.2 0.8
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Stat Review
How does Bryan Mitchell compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
0.78
 
K/9
4.3
 
BB/9
5.6
 
HR/9
1.7
 
Fastball
94.1 mph
 
ERA
6.16
 
WHIP
1.83
 
BABIP
.305
 
GB/FB
1.81
 
Strand %
69.8%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
Mitchell was expected to take on an important role as a versatile swingman capable of being plugged into the rotation or serving as a long relief option, but he suffered an untimely fractured toe on one of the final days of spring training that ultimately sidelined him until September. Almost as soon as he regained health, injuries to the rest of the rotation forced the 25-year-old to be used exclusively as a starter, where he struggled with command and had more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) in 25 innings. Also of some concern for the young righty: Mitchell's average fastball velocity fell from 96.2 mph in 2015 to 94.8 mph in 2016 - though that could possibly be due in part to a limited sample size of just five starts, and starters often lose giddy-up when leaving the bullpen. He'll likely head back to the bullpen to open up the 2017 season, but he could win a back-end rotation spot out of spring training.
Mitchell split time between Triple-A and the majors in 2015, working as a starter in the minors but primarily as a reliever in the big leagues. Coming out of the bullpen, the 24-year-old was able to get his fastball to average 96.2 mph, up nearly three mph from his 2014 average, but he still struggled overall to the tune of a 6.37 ERA and a 4.9 BB/9 mark. The Yankees already have a surplus of arms that figure to fill in the starting rotation next season, so Mitchell looks set into a bullpen role if he starts the year in the big leagues. It's also possible that the club could keep him as a starter in the minors, where he worked to a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, and keep him reserved as an extra starter in case of injuries.
Mitchell has been developed as a starter throughout his time in the Yankees' organization, but there's reason to wonder if he might follow in the footsteps of Adam Warren and move toward a late-inning role in the near future. Using a three-pitch combination, which includes a mid-90s fastball, a cutter and a curveball, Mitchell gets hitters to swing and miss frequently, but the lack of a changeup is particularly problematic if the Yankees are going to continue to look at him as a potential back-end starter. Ultimately, the role will likely determine his chances of making the Opening Day roster, but a low-leverage middle-relief role is a more likely outcome than a prominent late-inning gig if the Yankees decide to shift him into the bullpen.
More Fantasy News
Fires six strong in no-decision
PSan Diego Padres
September 12, 2018
Mitchell didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's win over the Mariners, allowing one run on four hits and two walks while striking out two over six innings.
ANALYSIS
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Gets another chance as starter
PSan Diego Padres
September 9, 2018
Mitchell is listed as the probable pitcher for Tuesday's game against the Mariners.
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Earns first win
PSan Diego Padres
September 3, 2018
Mitchell (1-3) allowed one earned run on two hits and three walks while striking out two across five innings to earn the win Monday against the Diamondbacks.
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Returns from disabled list
PSan Diego Padres
September 1, 2018
Mitchell (elbow) was activated from the disabled list Saturday.
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Set to join rotation Monday
PSan Diego Padres
Elbow
August 31, 2018
Mitchell (elbow) will be activated from the disabled list Monday to start against the Diamondbacks, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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