Adam Duvall
Adam Duvall
30-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Atlanta Braves
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Duvall was unable to follow up on his back-to-back 30 homer seasons. His offensive production fell off considerably and he was eventually traded to Atlanta before the deadline for some bench depth. His overall skills were in line with recent seasons, but Duvall regressed quite a bit in 2018 against southpaws, hitting .186/.286/.351 in 126 plate appearances. That was in sharp contrast to the above-average seasons Duvall enjoyed against lefties in both 2016 and 2017. We don't know if the 2018 numbers reflect the new Duvall or if they will prove an outlier against the better work that he did the prior two years. Statcast data says Duvall's overall numbers underperformed given the quality of his contact. The Braves brought back Nick Markakis, and now Duvall will need an injury to avoid being a short-side platoon player to begin 2019. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $2.88 million contract with the Braves in January of 2019, avoiding arbitration.
Reaches deal with Braves
OFAtlanta Braves
January 11, 2019
Duvall and the Braves reached agreement on a one-year, $2.875 million deal Friday, avoiding arbitration, Robert Murray of The Athletic reports.
Duvall did not play a major role in Atlanta following a late-July trade from Cincinnati, starting very infrequently and hitting just .132/.193/.151 in 57 plate appearances for his new team. He currently lines up as the Braves' primary left fielder, though the team could bring back Nick Markakis or sign another outfielder to move Duvall back to a bench role, which probably fits him best.
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Batting Stats
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
Even Split
Even Split
Since 2016vs Left .796 420 46 22 58 3 .239 .319 .477
Since 2016vs Right .735 1261 165 57 205 10 .230 .284 .451
2018vs Left .637 126 11 5 15 1 .189 .286 .351
2018vs Right .639 301 37 10 46 1 .198 .269 .370
2017vs Left .924 159 21 10 25 1 .279 .352 .571
2017vs Right .737 488 57 21 74 4 .239 .285 .452
2016vs Left .795 135 14 7 18 1 .238 .311 .484
2016vs Right .795 472 71 26 85 5 .242 .292 .502
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
OPS on Road
OPS at Home
OPS on Road
OPS on Road
Since 2016Home .728 826 102 36 120 5 .219 .294 .433
Since 2016Away .772 855 109 43 143 8 .245 .291 .480
2018Home .680 225 28 8 25 1 .199 .298 .383
2018Away .593 202 20 7 36 1 .191 .248 .346
2017Home .723 318 35 12 47 4 .232 .299 .425
2017Away .837 329 43 19 52 1 .265 .304 .533
2016Home .769 283 39 16 48 0 .220 .286 .482
2016Away .817 324 46 17 55 6 .259 .306 .512
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Stat Review
How does Adam Duvall compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
After being a pleasant surprise from the Mike Leake trade, many thought that Duvall would have difficulty repeating his 2016 breakout performance. However, that's essentially what Duvall did in 2017, reprising nearly the same output in all five standard categories. It appeared that he might even exceed his 2016 production, but a September collapse (.218/.284/.276 with no homers in his last 30 games) prevented that. The dilemma for the Reds is whether his low-OBP, good-power level is good enough when the team is ready to contend. Between Duvall, Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler, they have three outfielders that are good at some aspects of the game but lacking in others -- all while Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel are knocking at the door to find playing time. The guess here is that Duvall will maintain his level and playing time for one more year, but when he starts to become more expensive the Reds will find better alternatives.
Duvall's power long made him an intriguing player in the Giants' organization, but prior to last season, he was never on the field for more than 27 big league games in a season. The Reds, in need of offense and help in left field, had little difficulty finding playing time for Duvall in 2016, and he turned 608 plate appearances into a .241/.297/.498 line with 33 homers and 103 RBI. As the season progressed, Duvall showed improvement in his plate discipline, lowering his strikeout rate from 29.0 percent before the All-Star break to 24.6 percent thereafter, and pushing his walk rate from 4.9 percent to 8.8 percent during that span. With a better eye at the plate, however, he offered less pop, slugging .434 in the second half after toting a .551 mark in the first half. Duvall should reprise his role as the Reds' regular left fielder to begin 2017, where he may end up competing for at-bats with Scott Schebler once Jesse Winker becomes a fixture in the lineup.
Duvall has always had tremendous power, but his ability to control the strike zone has been sub-optimal. His brief big league trial with the Reds after he arrived in the Mike Leake trade demonstrated both of those qualities. He homered five times and had a .265 ISO in 72 plate appearances, but he also struck out 36 percent of the time. He could fit in one of two openings for the Reds in 2016 — either in left field where he played last year, or third base in the wake of the Todd Frazier trade. It's possible that he reaches 20 homers and hits .210 in the process.
It is tough to overlook a corner infielder that owns a career slash line of .269/.345/.501 in the minors and hit .298/.360/.599 last season, but you should. Duvall thrived in the Pacific Coast League last season as he did two seasons ago in the California League when he hit 30 home runs. He has 100 minor league home runs in 500 games, but is 26 and has seen just 77 plate appearances in the big leagues. He did hit three home runs last season in that time, but also struck out 20 times. His minor-league splits show someone who hits better against lefties but does not embarrass himself against righties. He is not a prospect, but players who show pop tend to get their chances, and Duvall’s future as a backup to the corners will hinge upon his ability to make more contact the second time around.
More Fantasy News
Shipped to Atlanta
OFAtlanta Braves
July 30, 2018
Duvall was traded from the Reds to the Braves on Monday in exchange for Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler and Preston Tucker.
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Launches 15th homer
OFCincinnati Reds
July 25, 2018
Duvall went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, a solo home run and a second run scored in Wednesday's 7-3 win over the Cardinals.
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Not in Saturday's lineup
OFCincinnati Reds
July 7, 2018
Duvall is out of the lineup against the Cubs on Saturday, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
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On bench Monday
OFCincinnati Reds
July 2, 2018
Duvall is not in the lineup against the White Sox on Monday, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
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Out of Friday's lineup
OFCincinnati Reds
June 29, 2018
Duvall is not in the lineup against the Brewers on Friday.
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