Dominic Smith
Dominic Smith
25-Year-Old First Baseman1B
New York Mets
2021 Fantasy Outlook
It wasn't that long ago that Smith was attempting to prove he deserved an extended chance in the majors. His .937 OPS over the past two seasons shows he clearly belongs. Smith led the Mets in 2020 with a 165 wRC+ and 42 RBI, and he also tied for fourth in the majors with 32 extra-base hits (10 homers, one triple, 21 doubles). His defense remains a hindrance, but he served as the designated hitter only five times and split most of his time between first base and left field. His strong numbers over the past two seasons span only 139 games, so there's some question of whether it will translate across a full 162-game slate. Smith showed enough to guarantee playing time heading into spring training, but whether or not the National League adopts the DH again in 2021 will play a role in what those opportunities look like, especially with Pete Alonso not going anywhere. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#107
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.55 million contract with the Mets in January of 2021.
Arrives at camp
1BNew York Mets
February 24, 2021
Smith (not injury related) arrived at spring training Wednesday, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News reports.
ANALYSIS
Smith's arrival at camp was slightly delayed due to a non-physical issue, but he'll join the team for workouts Wednesday. Even after his brief absence, Smith should have plenty of time to prepare for the regular season.
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Batting Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
21
3
5
4
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
5
1
3
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+10%
OPS vs RHP
2020
 
 
+29%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+1%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+18%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left .788 113 12 4 21 0 .247 .345 .443
Since 2018vs Right .869 425 64 22 57 1 .280 .329 .539
2020vs Left .803 57 7 2 14 0 .239 .368 .435
2020vs Right 1.032 135 20 8 28 0 .331 .370 .661
2019vs Left .876 36 4 2 7 0 .303 .361 .515
2019vs Right .882 161 31 9 18 1 .278 .354 .528
2018vs Left .583 20 1 0 0 0 .167 .250 .333
2018vs Right .688 129 13 5 11 0 .232 .256 .432
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+23%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+34%
OPS on Road
2018
 
 
+14%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home .768 256 33 12 31 0 .242 .293 .475
Since 2018Away .948 289 43 14 47 1 .310 .374 .575
2020Home .906 94 15 5 17 0 .282 .330 .576
2020Away 1.071 105 12 5 25 0 .348 .419 .652
2019Home .741 87 10 3 7 0 .241 .310 .430
2019Away .993 110 25 8 18 1 .316 .391 .602
2018Home .629 75 8 4 7 0 .194 .227 .403
2018Away .720 74 6 1 4 0 .254 .284 .437
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dominic Smith compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.31
 
BB Rate
7.0%
 
K Rate
22.6%
 
BABIP
.368
 
ISO
.299
 
AVG
.316
 
OBP
.377
 
SLG
.616
 
OPS
.993
 
wOBA
.417
 
Exit Velocity
84.2 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
37.0%
 
Barrels/PA
8.5%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dominic Smith
The Z Files: Putting a Price on Multiple Eligibility
8 days ago
Todd Zola examines the added value provided by players eligible at multiple positions, such as Cavan Biggio, in different league formats.
Baseball Draft Kit: Player Values by Position
16 days ago
Jeff Erickson ranks the players at each position for the 2021 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.
The Z Files: Dissecting Draft Dynamics
30 days ago
Todd Zola takes a look at real-time roster construction during drafts and how staying the course, from Mookie Betts in the first round on down, can produce a winning foundation.
The Z Files: Outfield Studs to Duds
51 days ago
Todd Zola wraps up his positional tiers with the outfield, and finds he can't quit Marcell Ozuna even without knowing what uniform he'll be wearing in 2021.
The Z Files: Who's on First?
79 days ago
Todd Zola offers up his first base tiers, where Freddie Freeman finally seems to be getting his due.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
We knew Smith could hit coming up through the minor leagues, so it was nice to see him hit for average for the first time at the major-league level last season in the playing time he did get. Smith is a defensive liability and that hurts his playing time as he is a hitter without a true position. Maybe he could be another James Loney if everything comes together for him offensively, but it's tough to envision 300 plate appearances for him if he stays in New York. His expected batting average was 42 points below his actual average while his expected slugging percentage was 125 points below his actual final number. Simply put, taking Smith's final 2019 line and trying to project that over increased playing time would be a bad process. Smith's skills garner attention in NL-only leagues, but in the reserve rounds. He will make a roster as he is out of minor-league options, but he does not necessarily need to make your roster on draft day.
Even though he's just 23 years old, Smith's window to convince the Mets he can be a productive part of their future is closing. As a first baseman in the National League, DH isn't an option, nor is changing positions in Smith's case. His plate skills continue to be the issue as last season's 32% strikeout rate in tandem with a paltry 2.7% walk rate won't get it done, even in today's whiff-forgiving landscape. Smith's aggressive approach hinders his ability to get to his power -- he chases at an above-average rate. He even struggled at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a .708 OPS in one of the best hitting venues in the offense-happy Pacific Coast League. Even in the unlikely event Smith has a strong spring and breaks camp with the starting role, he's unlikely to hold it with slugger Peter Alonso knocking at the door.
A number of prospects enjoyed success right away upon arrival to the big leagues last season, but Smith was not among them. He posted just a 73 wRC+ in 49 games, although he was pretty unlucky on balls in play (.218 BABIP). The power was the one positive, which is surprising given that Smith has long been thought of as a hit-over-power first baseman. However, he did steadily increase his home-run totals on the farm in recent years, and is still just 22 years old, so perhaps that per-game power production wasn't so fluky. While Smith did see a sizable jump in strikeout rate following his promotion to the majors, the minor-league track record suggests he will cut that down with more exposure to big-league arms. Smith isn't guaranteed a major-league roster spot out of camp, as new acquisition Adrian Gonzalez may be given the starting job, but he's still an intriguing player in dynasty settings.
Smith made significant strides in the power department last season, as the sweet-swinging lefty hit 14 home runs and drove in 91 runs in 130 games for Double-A Binghamton, both career highs. Smith has always possessed the ability to hit for average, and he batted over .300 for the second consecutive season. The Mets used James Loney as a stopgap option last season, which is fitting given that's the comparison that has been used with Smith throughout his time in the minors. Nevertheless, if Lucas Duda continues to battle back problems, Smith could see the big leagues as soon as this upcoming season. He will likely head to Triple-A to start the year to continue working on his power stroke.
With Steven Matz set to officially graduate from prospect status, Smith is primed to become the class of the Mets' farm system. Drafted 11th overall out of high school in 2011, Smith made the jump to High-A St. Lucie to begin 2015. The results were generally excellent for a 20-year-old as Smith raked against both left- and right-handed pitching, though he displayed mostly gap power from the left side with a Florida State League-leading 33 doubles. Smith does not have as stocky a 6-foot frame as say Kyle Schwarber, but he makes consistent contact, and more of those hits are going to start leaving the yard as Smith continues to mature and especially when he reaches the launching pad at Triple-A Las Vegas. He probably won't reach the majors until 2017, but Smith should be a popular target in long-term keeper formats.
First base prospects that sign for $2.6 million out of high school are typically worth monitoring, and Smith is no different, although his 2014 numbers may not back that up. If one ignores the fact that he is a first baseman, a .271 average with a .344 OBP in a full season at Low-A looks pretty good for someone who turned 19 this past summer. But the fact that he hit just one home run in 518 plate appearances signals that the power may always be below average relative to Smith’s position. The 26 doubles he hit give hope for an eventual 10-20 home run season in the minor leagues, especially if he can add more muscle to his six-foot, 185-pound frame. However, he is still at least a couple years away from the big leagues, and projects as more James Loney than Prince Fielder, meaning he is only worth holding in deeper formats.
Smith, selected 11th overall out of high school by the Mets in the 2013 draft, has a sweet left-handed stroke with surprising power and a good eye at the plate, along with a solid glove at first base. He hit .287/.384/.407 along with three homers and 22 RBI in 167 at-bats for the Gulf Coast League Mets, turning it on after a slow start. Smith could open 2014 at Low-A Savannah and is as a top-five prospect in the Mets' system. With a gaping hole at first base, Smith could be fast-tracked to the majors, reaching New York as early as 2016.
More Fantasy News
Slight delay to start camp
1BNew York Mets
Not Injury Related
February 22, 2021
Smith missed the Mets' first day of full-squad workouts but is not dealing with any injury, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Avoids arbitration with Mets
1BNew York Mets
January 15, 2021
Smith signed a one-year, $2.55 million deal with the Mets on Friday to avoid arbitration, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
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On bench in season finale
1BNew York Mets
September 27, 2020
Smith is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting nightcap
1BNew York Mets
September 26, 2020
Smith won't start the second game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Nationals, Justin Toscano of The Bergen Record reports.
ANALYSIS
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Crushes solo shot
1BNew York Mets
September 23, 2020
Smith went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Wednesday's 8-5 loss to the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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