Rowdy Tellez
23-Year-Old First Baseman1B
2019 Fantasy Outlook
While Yankee fans were enjoying Luke Voit and Rays fans enjoyed Ji-Man Choi, Jays fans got a pleasant surprise with their own September slugger. Tellez has been a solid hitter throughout his minor-league career, with above-average power and defensive limitations due to his size, but he stalled out a bit at Triple-A. Nobody could have predicted the small-sample offensive explosion he had last season with the big club (13 extra-base hits in 73 PA). Statcast did not support his September production, as his xwOBA was 80 points below his actual mark. In plain English -- the quality of his contact was not as good as the actual outcomes of his at-bats. Additionally, his 28.8 K% and 2.7 BB% in that tiny sample suggest major regression was coming. Tellez should head back to Triple-A with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales on the big-league roster. He may get another chance in 2019, but should not be expected to recapture last year's brief success. Read Past Outlooks
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$Signed with the Blue Jays in July of 2013.
Belts third career homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 22, 2018
Tellez went 3-for-4 with a double and a two-run homer in a win over the Rays on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Tellez pulled an inside cutter from Tyler Glasnow into the right-field stands in the bottom of the fourth for his second big fly in his last three games. The 23-year-old posted a .270/.340/.425 slash line with 13 homers and seven stolen bases in 444 plate appearances for Triple-A Buffalo this season, regaining some prospect luster. Justin Smoak has been riding the bench more frequently lately as the rebuilding Jays evaluate Tellez ahead of 2019.
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Batting Stats
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+270%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+270%
OPS vs RHP
2017
No Stats
2016
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016vs Left .324 23 2 0 2 0 .100 .174 .150
Since 2016vs Right 1.200 50 8 4 12 0 .400 .400 .800
2018vs Left .324 23 2 0 2 0 .100 .174 .150
2018vs Right 1.200 50 8 4 12 0 .400 .400 .800
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2016
 
 
+66%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+66%
OPS at Home
2017
No Stats
2016
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2016Home 1.128 43 6 3 10 0 .341 .372 .756
Since 2016Away .680 30 4 1 4 0 .276 .267 .414
2018Home 1.128 43 6 3 10 0 .341 .372 .756
2018Away .680 30 4 1 4 0 .276 .267 .414
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Rowdy Tellez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
BB/K
0.10
 
BB Rate
2.7%
 
K Rate
28.8%
 
BABIP
.391
 
ISO
.300
 
AVG
.314
 
OBP
.329
 
SLG
.614
 
OPS
.943
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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160 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
The subject of much doubt as he raked at each stop in the lower levels, Tellez, a 30th-round pick in 2013, always answered the bell. That is, until he got to Triple-A. Scouts who saw Tellez remarked on how it seemed like he wasn't getting good breaks on balls in play, and his .264 BABIP bears that out. However, that doesn't explain why he hit just six home runs in 122 games en route to a .110 ISO -- easily the worst mark of his career. His walk rate (9.4 percent) and his strikeout rate (18.8 percent) were fine. Triple-A pitching may have just vexed him -- sometimes guys hit a wall as they climb through the ranks. Entering his age-23 season, it's possible he can make some adjustments and earn a big-league promotion. However, with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales around, he not only needs to show significant improvement before getting called up, but would likely need an injury to open up a spot for him.
Few first base prospects can match Tellez's excellent contact skills (17.9 percent strikeout rate) and patience (12.3 percent walk rate) while also projecting to bring a plus hit tool and plus power to the equation. There is that tiny sliver of doubt that he will hit for enough power to profile as an above average fantasy first baseman, as this marked his first season with 20-plus home runs, but a future home in the American League East should help matters. It will be worth monitoring his ability to hit lefties as he moves up the ranks. He hit .264/.345/.456 in 125 at-bats against southpaws at Double-A, which isn't bad, but it illustrates a notable platoon split. The bat is good enough against righties that a Matt Adams-esque career is the worst-case scenario. The Blue Jays kept him at Double-A all season so he likely won't reach the majors until late 2017, at the earliest.
He may have been a 30th round pick, but Tellez has quickly shot up through the team’s prospect rankings and is now a top-10 prospect in the organization. At just 20 years old, he stands an imposing 6-foot-4, 245 pounds and is a left-handed masher, picture perfect for Rogers Centre one day. He split his season between Low-A Lansing and High-A Dunedin, collectively hitting for a .289/.347/.454 slash line with 14 home runs and 77 RBI. He played particularly well when he moved up to Dunedin, hitting for a .811 OPS and seven home runs in 35 games. Tellez plays first base by necessity and doesn’t really have any speed either defensively or on the basepaths. He may start the season back at High-A Dunedin, but advance to Double-A by midsummer.
More Fantasy News
Homers, drives in three runs
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 20, 2018
Tellez went 2-for-4 with a home run, a double, three RBI and two runs scored in Thursday's 9-8 win over the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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Knocks first big-league homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 8, 2018
Tellez went 2-for-4 with a walk and a solo homer in Saturday's loss to the Indians.
ANALYSIS
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Records two doubles vs. Indians
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 7, 2018
Tellez went 2-for-5 with two doubles, an RBI and a run scored in Friday's win over Cleveland
ANALYSIS
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Three extra-base hits
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 6, 2018
Tellez went 3-for-4 with three doubles, an RBI and a run scored Thursday against the Indians.
ANALYSIS
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Earns September callup
1BToronto Blue Jays
September 4, 2018
Tellez will be called up by the Blue Jays, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports.
ANALYSIS
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