Rowdy Tellez
Rowdy Tellez
26-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Toronto Blue Jays
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Tellez posted impressive power metrics in 2020, highlighted by a .257 ISO, 81st percentile hard-hit rate and 79th percentile average exit velocity. While Tellez has always shown the ability to crush fastballs, he also made improvements when confronted by breaking pitches. In 2018 and 2019, Tellez posted expected slugging marks of.409 and .392, respectively. In 2020, that mark jumped to .531. Another important development in Tellez's skill profile was his improved contact rate, which jumped from near 70% in his first two big-league seasons to 78.7% in 2020. This was backed by a more aggressive approach on pitches inside the zone, as his swing rate in those scenarios rose from 63.4% to 70.1%. If Tellez can maintain the more discerning approach at the plate, 2021 may be the year he gets a full slate of plate appearances as the Blue Jays' designated hitter. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#316
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $579,600 contract with the Blue Jays in March of 2020.
Recall depends on Springer
1BToronto Blue Jays  AAA
April 28, 2021
Tellez is expected to be recalled whenever George Springer (quadriceps) is able to play the outfield regularly, Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star reports.
ANALYSIS
Tellez was sent to the alternate site Wednesday because Springer is only able to serve as the designated hitter at the moment, leaving Tellez with nowhere to play. Chisholm says Springer's move to full-time outfield work isn't imminent, so we probably won't see Tellez back in the majors until early-to-mid May.
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Batting Stats
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2020
2019
2018
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
5
1
1
7
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+14%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+57%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+12%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+18%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .819 166 19 7 28 1 .276 .319 .500
Since 2019vs Right .716 433 55 23 52 0 .217 .289 .427
2021vs Left .700 10 1 1 1 0 .200 .200 .500
2021vs Right .446 53 4 0 2 0 .180 .226 .220
2020vs Left .811 30 5 0 4 0 .333 .367 .444
2020vs Right .910 97 15 8 19 0 .267 .340 .570
2019vs Left .831 126 13 6 23 1 .270 .317 .513
2019vs Right .702 283 36 15 31 0 .208 .283 .420
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+10%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+48%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+58%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+8%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .780 283 37 18 48 0 .234 .290 .490
Since 2019Away .712 316 37 12 32 1 .234 .304 .408
2021Home .623 22 3 1 1 0 .200 .273 .350
2021Away .420 41 2 0 2 0 .175 .195 .225
2020Home 1.136 48 10 5 15 0 .348 .375 .761
2020Away .717 79 10 3 8 0 .239 .329 .388
2019Home .713 213 24 12 32 0 .210 .272 .441
2019Away .773 196 25 9 22 1 .246 .316 .457
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Stat Review
How does Rowdy Tellez compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.13
 
BB Rate
3.2%
 
K Rate
23.8%
 
BABIP
.227
 
ISO
.083
 
AVG
.183
 
OBP
.222
 
SLG
.267
 
OPS
.489
 
wOBA
.220
 
Exit Velocity
87.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
40.0%
 
Barrels/PA
11.1%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Tellez broke camp with the Blue Jays, expected to absorb most of the at-bats vacated by Kendrys Morales leaving. The burly left-hander played regularly over the first half, splitting time between first base and designated hitter. In July, Tellez lost playing time before being sent to Triple-A Buffalo. At the time, he was slashing an anemic .227/.280/.436. Tellez spent a month with the Bisons, righting the ship with a 1.138 OPS. He returned in mid-August, posting an improved .226/.325/.481 the rest of the way. Tellez has plus power, but poor plate skills. Fanning at a 28.4% clip isn't as dire anymore, but he needs to improve on a 7.1% walk rate. Solid contact and patience in the low minors suggest Tellez can improve at the major-league level. Still, long term, Tellez profiles best as a designated hitter, perhaps facing just righty pitching. He is in play for cheap power but is not assured a regular role.
While Yankee fans were enjoying Luke Voit and Rays fans enjoyed Ji-Man Choi, Jays fans got a pleasant surprise with their own September slugger. Tellez has been a solid hitter throughout his minor-league career, with above-average power and defensive limitations due to his size, but he stalled out a bit at Triple-A. Nobody could have predicted the small-sample offensive explosion he had last season with the big club (13 extra-base hits in 73 PA). Statcast did not support his September production, as his xwOBA was 80 points below his actual mark. In plain English -- the quality of his contact was not as good as the actual outcomes of his at-bats. Additionally, his 28.8 K% and 2.7 BB% in that tiny sample suggest major regression was coming. Tellez should head back to Triple-A with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales on the big-league roster. He may get another chance in 2019, but should not be expected to recapture last year's brief success.
The subject of much doubt as he raked at each stop in the lower levels, Tellez, a 30th-round pick in 2013, always answered the bell. That is, until he got to Triple-A. Scouts who saw Tellez remarked on how it seemed like he wasn't getting good breaks on balls in play, and his .264 BABIP bears that out. However, that doesn't explain why he hit just six home runs in 122 games en route to a .110 ISO -- easily the worst mark of his career. His walk rate (9.4 percent) and his strikeout rate (18.8 percent) were fine. Triple-A pitching may have just vexed him -- sometimes guys hit a wall as they climb through the ranks. Entering his age-23 season, it's possible he can make some adjustments and earn a big-league promotion. However, with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales around, he not only needs to show significant improvement before getting called up, but would likely need an injury to open up a spot for him.
Few first base prospects can match Tellez's excellent contact skills (17.9 percent strikeout rate) and patience (12.3 percent walk rate) while also projecting to bring a plus hit tool and plus power to the equation. There is that tiny sliver of doubt that he will hit for enough power to profile as an above average fantasy first baseman, as this marked his first season with 20-plus home runs, but a future home in the American League East should help matters. It will be worth monitoring his ability to hit lefties as he moves up the ranks. He hit .264/.345/.456 in 125 at-bats against southpaws at Double-A, which isn't bad, but it illustrates a notable platoon split. The bat is good enough against righties that a Matt Adams-esque career is the worst-case scenario. The Blue Jays kept him at Double-A all season so he likely won't reach the majors until late 2017, at the earliest.
He may have been a 30th round pick, but Tellez has quickly shot up through the team’s prospect rankings and is now a top-10 prospect in the organization. At just 20 years old, he stands an imposing 6-foot-4, 245 pounds and is a left-handed masher, picture perfect for Rogers Centre one day. He split his season between Low-A Lansing and High-A Dunedin, collectively hitting for a .289/.347/.454 slash line with 14 home runs and 77 RBI. He played particularly well when he moved up to Dunedin, hitting for a .811 OPS and seven home runs in 35 games. Tellez plays first base by necessity and doesn’t really have any speed either defensively or on the basepaths. He may start the season back at High-A Dunedin, but advance to Double-A by midsummer.
More Fantasy News
Demoted to alternate site
1BToronto Blue Jays  AAA
April 28, 2021
Tellez was optioned to the Blue Jays' alternate training site Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Sits out Sunday
1BToronto Blue Jays  AAA
April 25, 2021
Tellez is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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Sits against lefty
1BToronto Blue Jays  AAA
April 20, 2021
Tellez is not in Tuesday's lineup against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Not starting Game 1
1BToronto Blue Jays  AAA
April 17, 2021
Tellez isn't starting Game 1 of Saturday's doubleheader against Kansas City.
ANALYSIS
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Clubs first homer
1BToronto Blue Jays  AAA
April 13, 2021
Tellez went 1-for-4 with a solo home run during Tuesday's win over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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