Rowdy Tellez

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Milwaukee Brewers

2022 Stats

AVG

.244

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2022 Fantasy Outlook

Big, beefy and with a penchant for clutch late-inning home runs, Tellez quickly became a fan favorite in Milwaukee after he was traded from Toronto for relievers Trevor Richards and Bowden Francis in early July. As with the acquisition of Willy Adames from Tampa Bay, the Brewers went 2-for-2 on buying low on AL East hitters who went on to mash with their new club. Tellez hit .209/.272/.338 in 50 games with Toronto and his playing time had gotten pretty irregular by May. With Milwaukee, he hit .272/.333/.481 with seven home runs, an 8.0 BB% and an 18.4 K%. Tellez has been in the 94th percentile or better in max exit velocity in each of the past three years and has logged a linedrive rate over 20% in each big-league season. Getting his flyball rate over 40% would go a long way toward him getting the most of his huge raw power in games. He doesn't show strong lefty/righty splits, and if the National League gets the designated hitter, he could get a chance to play almost every day. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#360

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'4"

Weight 255

DOB 3/16/1995

Born Elk Grove, CA

College None

Drafted 30th Rd 2013 TOR

Riding pine Saturday

1BMilwaukee Brewers

June 25, 2022

Tellez isn't in the lineup for Saturday's game against the Blue Jays.

ANALYSIS
Tellez is getting a breather after he went 2-for-17 with a homer, a double, two RBI, four walks and two strikeouts over the last five games. Keston Hiura is starting at first base and batting eighth.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+12%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+32%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+2%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+12%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.700	155	18	3	17	0	.264	.329	.371
Since 2020vs Right	.784	562	61	27	83	0	.246	.313	.470
2022vs Left	.616	62	6	1	6	0	.218	.306	.309
2022vs Right	.812	203	19	10	35	0	.251	.320	.492
2021vs Left	.730	63	7	2	7	0	.276	.333	.397
2021vs Right	.716	262	27	9	29	0	.234	.298	.418
2020vs Left	.811	30	5	0	4	0	.333	.367	.444
2020vs Right	.910	97	15	8	19	0	.267	.340	.570
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+21%

OPS at Home

2022

+62%

OPS at Home

2021

+19%

OPS on Road

2020

+58%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.849	318	34	17	52	0	.263	.336	.512
Since 2020Away	.700	399	45	13	48	0	.240	.301	.399
2022Home	.971	122	12	8	23	0	.283	.377	.594
2022Away	.599	143	13	3	18	0	.212	.266	.333
2021Home	.651	148	12	4	14	0	.218	.291	.361
2021Away	.774	177	22	7	22	0	.262	.316	.457
2020Home	1.136	48	10	5	15	0	.348	.375	.761
2020Away	.717	79	10	3	8	0	.239	.329	.388
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Stat Review

How does Rowdy Tellez compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

BB/K

0.42

BB Rate

8.7%

K Rate

20.8%

BABIP

.272

ISO

.206

AVG

.244

OBP

.317

SLG

.450

OPS

.767

wOBA

.333

Exit Velocity

Hard Hit Rate

35.9%

Barrels/PA

7.2%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Rowdy Tellez Prospect Ranking History

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Tellez posted impressive power metrics in 2020, highlighted by a .257 ISO, 81st percentile hard-hit rate and 79th percentile average exit velocity. While Tellez has always shown the ability to crush fastballs, he also made improvements when confronted by breaking pitches. In 2018 and 2019, Tellez posted expected slugging marks of.409 and .392, respectively. In 2020, that mark jumped to .531. Another important development in Tellez's skill profile was his improved contact rate, which jumped from near 70% in his first two big-league seasons to 78.7% in 2020. This was backed by a more aggressive approach on pitches inside the zone, as his swing rate in those scenarios rose from 63.4% to 70.1%. If Tellez can maintain the more discerning approach at the plate, 2021 may be the year he gets a full slate of plate appearances as the Blue Jays' designated hitter.

Tellez broke camp with the Blue Jays, expected to absorb most of the at-bats vacated by Kendrys Morales leaving. The burly left-hander played regularly over the first half, splitting time between first base and designated hitter. In July, Tellez lost playing time before being sent to Triple-A Buffalo. At the time, he was slashing an anemic .227/.280/.436. Tellez spent a month with the Bisons, righting the ship with a 1.138 OPS. He returned in mid-August, posting an improved .226/.325/.481 the rest of the way. Tellez has plus power, but poor plate skills. Fanning at a 28.4% clip isn't as dire anymore, but he needs to improve on a 7.1% walk rate. Solid contact and patience in the low minors suggest Tellez can improve at the major-league level. Still, long term, Tellez profiles best as a designated hitter, perhaps facing just righty pitching. He is in play for cheap power but is not assured a regular role.

While Yankee fans were enjoying Luke Voit and Rays fans enjoyed Ji-Man Choi, Jays fans got a pleasant surprise with their own September slugger. Tellez has been a solid hitter throughout his minor-league career, with above-average power and defensive limitations due to his size, but he stalled out a bit at Triple-A. Nobody could have predicted the small-sample offensive explosion he had last season with the big club (13 extra-base hits in 73 PA). Statcast did not support his September production, as his xwOBA was 80 points below his actual mark. In plain English -- the quality of his contact was not as good as the actual outcomes of his at-bats. Additionally, his 28.8 K% and 2.7 BB% in that tiny sample suggest major regression was coming. Tellez should head back to Triple-A with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales on the big-league roster. He may get another chance in 2019, but should not be expected to recapture last year's brief success.

The subject of much doubt as he raked at each stop in the lower levels, Tellez, a 30th-round pick in 2013, always answered the bell. That is, until he got to Triple-A. Scouts who saw Tellez remarked on how it seemed like he wasn't getting good breaks on balls in play, and his .264 BABIP bears that out. However, that doesn't explain why he hit just six home runs in 122 games en route to a .110 ISO -- easily the worst mark of his career. His walk rate (9.4 percent) and his strikeout rate (18.8 percent) were fine. Triple-A pitching may have just vexed him -- sometimes guys hit a wall as they climb through the ranks. Entering his age-23 season, it's possible he can make some adjustments and earn a big-league promotion. However, with Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales around, he not only needs to show significant improvement before getting called up, but would likely need an injury to open up a spot for him.

Few first base prospects can match Tellez's excellent contact skills (17.9 percent strikeout rate) and patience (12.3 percent walk rate) while also projecting to bring a plus hit tool and plus power to the equation. There is that tiny sliver of doubt that he will hit for enough power to profile as an above average fantasy first baseman, as this marked his first season with 20-plus home runs, but a future home in the American League East should help matters. It will be worth monitoring his ability to hit lefties as he moves up the ranks. He hit .264/.345/.456 in 125 at-bats against southpaws at Double-A, which isn't bad, but it illustrates a notable platoon split. The bat is good enough against righties that a Matt Adams-esque career is the worst-case scenario. The Blue Jays kept him at Double-A all season so he likely won't reach the majors until late 2017, at the earliest.

He may have been a 30th round pick, but Tellez has quickly shot up through the team’s prospect rankings and is now a top-10 prospect in the organization. At just 20 years old, he stands an imposing 6-foot-4, 245 pounds and is a left-handed masher, picture perfect for Rogers Centre one day. He split his season between Low-A Lansing and High-A Dunedin, collectively hitting for a .289/.347/.454 slash line with 14 home runs and 77 RBI. He played particularly well when he moved up to Dunedin, hitting for a .811 OPS and seven home runs in 35 games. Tellez plays first base by necessity and doesn’t really have any speed either defensively or on the basepaths. He may start the season back at High-A Dunedin, but advance to Double-A by midsummer.

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