Alex Reyes
Alex Reyes
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
St. Louis Cardinals
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Beware injury optimism. As Reyes neared his return from Tommy John surgery, the buzz grew loud, with many expecting the right-hander to perform at an ace-like level over the final four months of the season. As fate would have it, Reyes made just one lone start for the major-league team. He experienced a significant inning-to-inning velocity drop in his debut and landed right back on the DL a day later with a right lat injury. A tendon tear was diagnosed and season-ending surgery was deemed necessary in early June. Considering Reyes threw a total of just 27 innings in a competitive setting last year after a completely lost season in 2017, it's unreasonable to expect any more than 100 frames in 2019. Said innings could be of extremely high quality, and the chance he eventually works into the closer role for St. Louis gives him some added appeal, but the workload limitations put a firm cap on Reyes' fantasy upside for the upcoming season. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a contract with the Cardinals in December of 2012 that includes a $950,000 signing bonus.
Tosses live BP
PSt. Louis Cardinals
February 20, 2019
Reyes (lat) threw his first live batting practice session of the spring Tuesday, Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The Cardinals had suggested in the offseason that Reyes would be back to full health for spring training, so his ability to face hitters in the second week of camp is merely confirmation that the torn lat muscle he sustained last May is no longer a concern. It's possible that St. Louis still acts cautiously with Reyes' usage in the spring so as to save his bullets for the regular season, but the 24-year-old should still merit consideration for the club's Opening Day rotation. Reyes' chances of breaking camp as a starter in the big leagues may have improved after it was revealed Monday that Carlos Martinez (shoulder) would push back his throwing progression at least two weeks.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-26%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-30%
BAA vs LHP
2017
No Stats
2016
 
 
-30%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .240 86 14 11 18 3 2 0
Since 2016vs Right .178 118 40 14 18 3 0 1
2018vs Left .200 7 0 2 1 0 0 0
2018vs Right .286 8 2 0 2 0 0 0
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016vs Left .243 79 14 9 17 3 2 0
2016vs Right .170 110 38 14 16 3 0 1
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-43%
ERA at Home
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
2016
 
 
-50%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 0.98 1.36 18.1 1 0 0 9.3 6.4 0.0
Since 2016Away 1.71 1.14 31.2 3 1 1 9.9 3.4 0.3
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0.00 1.25 4.0 0 0 0 4.5 4.5 0.0
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2016Home 0.98 1.36 18.1 1 0 0 9.3 6.4 0.0
2016Away 1.95 1.12 27.2 3 1 1 10.7 3.3 0.3
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Stat Review
How does Alex Reyes compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
1.00
 
K/9
4.5
 
BB/9
4.5
 
HR/9
0.0
 
Fastball
94.8 mph
 
ERA
0.00
 
WHIP
1.25
 
BABIP
.244
 
GB/FB
1.33
 
Strand %
100.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Cardinals Depth Chart
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Alex Reyes
Farm Futures: NL Central: 105 Prospects You Need To Know
2 days ago
James Anderson sifts through the increasingly thin organizations in the NL Central but notes that there are still some gems, such as the Reds' Nick Senzel.
Baseball Draft Kit: Joe Sheehan's Picks and Pans
4 days ago
Joe Sheehan shows his hand, detailing the players he likes and those he doesn't in his article for the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.
Mound Musings: The Kids on Parade Watch List for 2019
149 days ago
Brad Johnson ends the season with his favorite column about MLB’s up and coming pitchers, including Alex Reyes, who, Johnson says, when healthy, is a beast on the mound.
MLB Barometer: The Bigger Picture
184 days ago
Derek VanRIper is back with his Barometer this week, kicking off his risers section with Reds third basemen Eugenio Suarez, who's been spending time at shortstop recently.
The Z Files: NL Rotation Overview
233 days ago
Todd Zola concludes his tour of big-league depth charts with a look at rotations in the National League, including a more charitable view of the Rockies' recent demotion of Jon Gray.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Few pitching prospects can match Reyes' upside, but his immediate outlook is vexing. He underwent Tommy John surgery Feb. 16, 2017 and threw his first bullpen session in September. According to a study by The Hardball Times in 2014, pitchers like Reyes, who undergo the surgery between the ages of 22 and 23, experience an average return time of 15.4 months, with a 94 percent success rate (based on a sample of 143 pitchers). So while Reyes could be ready at the start of the season, it's more likely that he is not ready until May or June. Adding to the confusion is the fact that we don't know how the Cardinals plan to use Reyes in his first year back. While he is clearly a starter long term, he could spend some or all of 2018 building up his arm strength in the big-league bullpen. He is a worthy stash candidate in most formats, and while the payoff could be huge if he returns to the big-league rotation early in the first half, the risk is significant.
The Cardinals initially promoted Reyes in early August to serve as a relief ace, but poor performance and injuries in the rotation led to him receiving five starts over the season's final month. He was almost unhittable as a reliever (.138 BAA) and remained dominant as a starter, but he clearly walked too many batters in both roles. Reyes has ace-level stuff, not only dominating with his famed four-seamer that sits at 97 mph and can touch 102, but also rendering hitters helpless with highly effective secondaries in his curveball (.538 OPS against, 46.2 strikeout percentage) and changeup (.592, 34.4 percent). Fringe-average fastball command and control are the only blemishes in his profile, but his stuff is so nasty that he understandably reached the majors after just 100 combined innings at Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. Noah Syndergaard, for instance, needed 216.2 innings at those two levels before his MLB debut. Unfortunately, Reyes' development will be delayed as he is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2017 season.
A breakout candidate heading into 2015, Reyes emerged as one of the five best pitching prospects in the minor leagues last season. He posted a 2.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an eye-popping 151 strikeouts in 101.1 innings across three levels, finishing with a strong eight-start showing with Double-A Springfield. Reyes pumps gas that can touch 100 mph, but he also boasts a plus curveball and a changeup that should be average or better in time. His command is fringe average, but it does not really matter, given how nasty his stuff is. Opponents hit just .169 against him in 34.2 innings at Double-A, so his 18 walks were inconsequential. He will miss the first 50 games of 2016 after testing positive for marijuana, but that only hurts his value in single-season leagues, as he is unlikely to come up in time to make a major impact this season. However, Reyes could be a 200-K pitcher in the big leagues by 2017.
Reyes is one of the Cardinals' better pitching prospects as he's looked very good at times pitching to batters several years older than him at the Low-A level. His biggest issue has been control and that was no different in 2014; while he was less hittable he still saw his walk rate rise from 11.1% to 13.1%. Next season will be only the 20-year-old's third season as a pro and he's never looked out of place. The talent and stuff is definitely there, but he will need to harness his control issues if he wants to work his way into an MLB rotation instead of a late-innings relief role. He's proven he has the fastball to be successful in either role, striking out 137 batters in 2014 in just 109.1 innings of work. If all goes well, Reyes should finish 2015 in Double-A and be ready for his MLB debut some time in 2016.
More Fantasy News
Throwing in instructional league
PSt. Louis Cardinals
January 20, 2019
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently said that Reyes (lat) has been making "continued steady progress with his throwing progression" as part of the Cardinals' instructional league program in Jupiter, Fla. this offseason, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
ANALYSIS
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Preparing for spring as starter
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Lat
November 26, 2018
Reyes (lat) is preparing for spring training as a starter, the St. Louis Post Dispatch reports.
ANALYSIS
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Moved to 60-day DL
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Lat
June 29, 2018
Reyes (lat) was transferred to the 60-day disabled list Friday.
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Undergoes season-ending surgery
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Lat
June 6, 2018
Reyes (lat) underwent surgery Wednesday to repair a torn tendon and will miss the remainder of the season, Mark Saxon of The Athletic St. Louis reports. The right-hander is expected to require six months to make a full recovery.
ANALYSIS
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Will receive second opinion
PSt. Louis Cardinals
Lat
June 5, 2018
Reyes will travel to Philadelphia on Wednesday to visit a specialist to determine the severity of his right lat injury, Joe Trezza of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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