Alex Reyes
Alex Reyes
24-Year-Old PitcherRP
St. Louis Cardinals
7-Day IL
Injury Pectoral
Est. Return 7/15/2019
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Beware injury optimism. As Reyes neared his return from Tommy John surgery, the buzz grew loud, with many expecting the right-hander to perform at an ace-like level over the final four months of the season. As fate would have it, Reyes made just one lone start for the major-league team. He experienced a significant inning-to-inning velocity drop in his debut and landed right back on the DL a day later with a right lat injury. A tendon tear was diagnosed and season-ending surgery was deemed necessary in early June. Considering Reyes threw a total of just 27 innings in a competitive setting last year after a completely lost season in 2017, it's unreasonable to expect any more than 100 frames in 2019. Said innings could be of extremely high quality, and the chance he eventually works into the closer role for St. Louis gives him some added appeal, but the workload limitations put a firm cap on Reyes' fantasy upside for the upcoming season. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#236
ADP
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Cardinals in August of 2016.
Out with strained pectoral muscle
PSt. Louis Cardinals  AAA
Pectoral
June 25, 2019
Reyes landed on the minor-league injured list at Triple-A Memphis with a strained pectoral muscle Tuesday, Mark Saxon of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Reyes is expected to miss two or three starts. He owns a 7.39 ERA in 28 innings for Memphis this season, so he doesn't appear all that likely to push for a big-league roster spot anytime soon despite his considerable promise as a prospect.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-64%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-30%
BAA vs LHP
2017
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .111 14 1 4 1 0 0 0
Since 2017vs Right .308 18 2 4 4 0 0 1
2019vs Left .000 7 1 2 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right .333 10 0 4 2 0 0 1
2018vs Left .200 7 0 2 1 0 0 0
2018vs Right .286 8 2 0 2 0 0 0
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-89%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-67%
ERA on Road
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 27.00 4.00 1.0 0 1 0 0.0 27.0 9.0
Since 2017Away 3.00 1.50 6.0 0 0 0 4.5 7.5 0.0
2019Home 27.00 4.00 1.0 0 1 0 0.0 27.0 9.0
2019Away 9.00 2.00 2.0 0 0 0 4.5 13.5 0.0
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0.00 1.25 4.0 0 0 0 4.5 4.5 0.0
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Alex Reyes compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 20 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
0.17
 
K/9
3.0
 
BB/9
18.0
 
HR/9
3.0
 
Fastball
96.8 mph
 
ERA
15.00
 
WHIP
2.67
 
BABIP
.118
 
GB/FB
0.50
 
Left On Base
45.5%
 
Exit Velocity
90.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
0.0%
 
Spin Rate
2326 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
50.0%
 
Swinging Strike
5.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Alex Reyes
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91 days ago
Brad Johnson updates potential pitching opportunities and reviews bullpens with continued question marks, including where free agent Craig Kimbrel could land.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Few pitching prospects can match Reyes' upside, but his immediate outlook is vexing. He underwent Tommy John surgery Feb. 16, 2017 and threw his first bullpen session in September. According to a study by The Hardball Times in 2014, pitchers like Reyes, who undergo the surgery between the ages of 22 and 23, experience an average return time of 15.4 months, with a 94 percent success rate (based on a sample of 143 pitchers). So while Reyes could be ready at the start of the season, it's more likely that he is not ready until May or June. Adding to the confusion is the fact that we don't know how the Cardinals plan to use Reyes in his first year back. While he is clearly a starter long term, he could spend some or all of 2018 building up his arm strength in the big-league bullpen. He is a worthy stash candidate in most formats, and while the payoff could be huge if he returns to the big-league rotation early in the first half, the risk is significant.
The Cardinals initially promoted Reyes in early August to serve as a relief ace, but poor performance and injuries in the rotation led to him receiving five starts over the season's final month. He was almost unhittable as a reliever (.138 BAA) and remained dominant as a starter, but he clearly walked too many batters in both roles. Reyes has ace-level stuff, not only dominating with his famed four-seamer that sits at 97 mph and can touch 102, but also rendering hitters helpless with highly effective secondaries in his curveball (.538 OPS against, 46.2 strikeout percentage) and changeup (.592, 34.4 percent). Fringe-average fastball command and control are the only blemishes in his profile, but his stuff is so nasty that he understandably reached the majors after just 100 combined innings at Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis. Noah Syndergaard, for instance, needed 216.2 innings at those two levels before his MLB debut. Unfortunately, Reyes' development will be delayed as he is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2017 season.
A breakout candidate heading into 2015, Reyes emerged as one of the five best pitching prospects in the minor leagues last season. He posted a 2.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and an eye-popping 151 strikeouts in 101.1 innings across three levels, finishing with a strong eight-start showing with Double-A Springfield. Reyes pumps gas that can touch 100 mph, but he also boasts a plus curveball and a changeup that should be average or better in time. His command is fringe average, but it does not really matter, given how nasty his stuff is. Opponents hit just .169 against him in 34.2 innings at Double-A, so his 18 walks were inconsequential. He will miss the first 50 games of 2016 after testing positive for marijuana, but that only hurts his value in single-season leagues, as he is unlikely to come up in time to make a major impact this season. However, Reyes could be a 200-K pitcher in the big leagues by 2017.
Reyes is one of the Cardinals' better pitching prospects as he's looked very good at times pitching to batters several years older than him at the Low-A level. His biggest issue has been control and that was no different in 2014; while he was less hittable he still saw his walk rate rise from 11.1% to 13.1%. Next season will be only the 20-year-old's third season as a pro and he's never looked out of place. The talent and stuff is definitely there, but he will need to harness his control issues if he wants to work his way into an MLB rotation instead of a late-innings relief role. He's proven he has the fastball to be successful in either role, striking out 137 batters in 2014 in just 109.1 innings of work. If all goes well, Reyes should finish 2015 in Double-A and be ready for his MLB debut some time in 2016.
More Fantasy News
Dealing with pectoral discomfort
PSt. Louis Cardinals  AAA
Pectoral
June 23, 2019
Reyes exited his start with Triple-A Memphis on Sunday due to right pectoral discomfort, Rob Rains of StLSportsPage.com reports.
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Exits with apparent injury
PSt. Louis Cardinals  AAA
Undisclosed
June 23, 2019
Reyes was removed from his start with Triple-A Memphis on Sunday due to an apparent injury, Brian Walton of TheCardinalNation.com reports.
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Struggles in latest minors start
PSt. Louis Cardinals  AAA
June 18, 2019
Reyes (1-3) recorded nine strikeouts but also allowed six earned runs on 10 hits, three walks and a wild pitch over five innings in Triple-A Memphis' loss to Las Vegas on Tuesday.
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Candidate for spot start
PSt. Louis Cardinals  AAA
June 14, 2019
Reyes, who logged three innings for Triple-A Memphis against Salt Lake on Thursday, is a candidate to make a spot start for Adam Wainwright (hamstring) on Wednesday against the Marlins, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
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Slated for another Triple-A start
PSt. Louis Cardinals  AAA
June 10, 2019
Reyes will make at least one more start at Triple-A Memphis before a promotion is considered, Mark Saxon of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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