Luis Severino
Luis Severino
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees in February of 2019, avoiding arbitration. Contract includes $15 million team option ($2.75 million buyout) for 2023.
Draws start for Game 3 of ALCS
PNew York Yankees
October 11, 2019
Severino will start Game 3 of the American League Championship Series against Houston on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
Severino fired four scoreless innings during Game 3 of the ALDS against the Twins, and he'll get the ball in Game 3 of the ALCS after Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton toe the rubber in Games 1 and 2.
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Pitching Stats
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
76
Last 10 Games
76
Last 5 Games
76
How many pitches does Luis Severino generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Luis Severino generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-9%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .233 742 218 57 157 38 2 18
Since 2017vs Right .212 869 249 46 172 32 1 22
2019vs Left .148 32 12 4 4 1 0 0
2019vs Right .143 16 5 2 2 0 0 0
2018vs Left .252 351 102 27 81 19 2 6
2018vs Right .227 429 118 19 92 20 1 13
2017vs Left .221 359 104 26 72 18 0 12
2017vs Right .198 424 126 25 78 12 0 9
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-31%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-40%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.09 1.03 198.0 19 7 0 10.8 2.3 1.0
Since 2017Away 3.17 1.15 198.2 15 8 0 10.4 2.4 0.8
2019Home 0.00 0.78 9.0 1 0 0 13.0 2.0 0.0
2019Away 6.00 1.67 3.0 0 1 0 12.0 12.0 0.0
2018Home 2.74 1.04 92.0 10 2 0 10.8 2.2 0.8
2018Away 3.99 1.24 99.1 9 6 0 10.0 2.2 1.0
2017Home 3.71 1.04 97.0 8 5 0 10.6 2.4 1.4
2017Away 2.24 1.04 96.1 6 1 0 10.8 2.3 0.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Luis Severino compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.83
 
K/9
12.8
 
BB/9
4.5
 
HR/9
0.0
 
Fastball
96.1 mph
 
ERA
1.50
 
WHIP
1.00
 
BABIP
.263
 
GB/FB
1.11
 
Left On Base
83.3%
 
Exit Velocity
85.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.2%
 
Spin Rate
2214 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
29.2%
 
Swinging Strike
11.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino
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Postseason Cheatsheet
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11 days ago
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Jeff Erickson's quick postseason ranks.
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
13 days ago
Erik Halterman looks at the season's biggest risers and fallers in his farewell column. Few players outperformed their ADP as much as Kansas City's Jorge Soler this year.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Will start Game 3 of ALDS
PNew York Yankees
October 3, 2019
Severino will start Game 3 of the American League Division Series against the Twins, Brendan Kuty of The Newark Star-Ledger reports.
ANALYSIS
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Walks four in loss
PNew York Yankees
September 28, 2019
Severino (1-1) allowed two runs on a hit and four walks while striking out four over three innings, taking the loss versus the Rangers on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
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Whiffs nine in second start
PNew York Yankees
September 23, 2019
Severino (1-0) earned the win against Toronto on Sunday, completing five scoreless innings and giving up three hits. He struck out nine and did not walk any batters.
ANALYSIS
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Sparkles in 2019 debut
PNew York Yankees
September 17, 2019
Severino pitched four shutout innings, allowing only two hits with two walks and four strikeouts during a no-decision against the Angels on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Activated ahead of start
PNew York Yankees
September 17, 2019
Severino (lat) was activated as expected ahead of his scheduled start Tuesday against the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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