Luis Severino News

Luis Severino

26-Year-Old PitcherSP

New York Yankees

Out

Injury Elbow

Est. Return 6/1/2021

2019 Stats

W-L

1-1

ERA

1.50

WHIP

1.00

2020 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2020 Fantasy Outlook

Simply put, Severino is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The question heading into 2020 is, are the lat and shoulder issues that cost him all but three regular-season starts behind him? Initially diagnosed with a sore rotator cuff early in spring training, Severino was later revealed to have also suffered a Grade 2 lat strain which is what was responsible for the lengthy absence. When Severino returned, his velocity was just a tick below normal, offering some optimism for a full recovery. Severino is unfairly penalized for his home venue. Yankee Stadium is plus for homers but suppresses runs. This helps explain his success in the Bronx where his career ERA and WHIP are a tad better than on the road. Most will want to wait until the spring before investing, creating a buying opportunity in early drafts. However, even if healthy, Severino's workload will likely be lower than other aces. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

#395

ADP

Dynasty

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League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 218

DOB 2/20/1994

Born Sabana de la Mar, DR

College None

Drafted 2012 NYY

Pleased with progress in rehab

PNew York Yankees

Elbow

May 31, 2020

Severino (elbow) said Saturday that he's progressing well in his recovery from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in February and remains optimistic that he'll be ready to pitch for the Yankees at some point in 2021, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Severino has been a regular at the Yankees' spring facility in Tampa during baseball's hiatus, with the right-hander relaying that he's been able to go through a weightlifting program five days a week since having the procedure. He expects to receive clearance to resume throwing at some point during the summer, but it may not be until next spring that the Yankees give him the green light to face hitters. Before requiring surgery, Severino was at least able to secure a four-year, $40 million contract extension with the Yankees that bought out his remaining arbitration years.

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Pitching Stats

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2019

2018

2017

2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Luis Severino generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Luis Severino generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2017

-9%

BAA vs RHP

2019

-3%

BAA vs RHP

2018

-10%

BAA vs RHP

2017

-10%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2017vs Left	.233	742	218	57	157	38	2	18
Since 2017vs Right	.212	869	249	46	172	32	1	22
2019vs Left	.148	32	12	4	4	1	0	0
2019vs Right	.143	16	5	2	2	0	0	0
2018vs Left	.252	351	102	27	81	19	2	6
2018vs Right	.227	429	118	19	92	20	1	13
2017vs Left	.221	359	104	26	72	18	0	12
2017vs Right	.198	424	126	25	78	12	0	9
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2017

-3%

ERA at Home

2019

-100%

ERA at Home

2018

-31%

ERA at Home

2017

-40%

ERA on Road

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2017Home	3.09	1.03	198.0	19	7	0	10.8	2.3	1.0
Since 2017Away	3.17	1.15	198.2	15	8	0	10.4	2.4	0.8
2019Home	0.00	0.78	9.0	1	0	0	13.0	2.0	0.0
2019Away	6.00	1.67	3.0	0	1	0	12.0	12.0	0.0
2018Home	2.74	1.04	92.0	10	2	0	10.8	2.2	0.8
2018Away	3.99	1.24	99.1	9	6	0	10.0	2.2	1.0
2017Home	3.71	1.04	97.0	8	5	0	10.6	2.4	1.4
2017Away	2.24	1.04	96.1	6	1	0	10.8	2.3	0.6
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Luis Severino compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.83

K/9

12.8

BB/9

4.5

HR/9

0.0

Fastball

96.1 mph

ERA

1.50

WHIP

1.00

BABIP

.263

GB/FB

1.11

Left On Base

83.3%

Exit Velocity

85.8 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.2%

Spin Rate

2214 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

29.2%

Swinging Strike

11.4%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Yankees Depth Chart

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino

Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Yesterday

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3 days ago

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Farm Futures: Dynasty Rankings for Contenders

13 days ago

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The Z Files: Winning Tendencies, Part Four

18 days ago

Todd Zola continues his breakdown of last year's NFBC Main Event rosters and explains why he thinks Christian Yelich showed up on so few league-winning squads.

The Z Files: Winning Tendencies, Part Three

21 days ago

Todd Zola continues his dive into NFBC Main Event data and finds that remarkably few of last year's successful squads invested early in a top closer like Kenley Jansen.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list.

A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.

Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.

The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.

No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.

More Fantasy News

Clear to rehab at team facility

PNew York Yankees

Elbow

April 1, 2020

Severino (elbow) is among a group of Yankees eligible to use the Yankees' facility in Tampa in the midst of Florida's stay-at-home declaration, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.

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Rehabbing at training complex

PNew York Yankees

Elbow

March 18, 2020

Severino (elbow) has been rehabbing at the Yankees' spring-training complex, Marly Rivera of ESPN reports.

ANALYSIS
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Undergoes successful surgery

PNew York Yankees

Elbow

February 27, 2020

Severino's Tommy John surgery went as expected Thursday, Lindsey Adler of The Athletic reports.

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Tommy John surgery set for Thursday

PNew York Yankees

Elbow

February 25, 2020

Severino will undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Thursday.

ANALYSIS
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Needs Tommy John surgery

PNew York Yankees

Elbow

February 25, 2020

Severino (elbow) will require Tommy John surgery, Erik Boland of Newsday reports.

ANALYSIS
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