Luis Severino
Luis Severino
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
2018 Fantasy Outlook
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $550,975 contract with the Yankees in March of 2017.
Tough-luck loss vs. Minnesota
PNew York Yankees
September 12, 2018
Severino (17-8) took the loss Wednesday, allowing one run on four hits while striking out five without a walk over 5.2 innings against the Twins.
ANALYSIS
Severino put together a solid outing, but he was outdueled on the other side by Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi, who took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. The 24-year-old exited after 83 pitches (52 strikes) with a pair of runners on in the sixth inning and has now failed to complete six frames five times in his last six starts. While he's had a rocky second half to the season and hasn't been able to work deep into ball games lately, Severino may be starting to right the ship somewhat, as he's allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five. He'll take a 3.46 ERA into Wednesday's start against the Red Sox.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .242 835 230 63 184 41 3 22
Since 2016vs Right .224 989 273 55 207 44 1 29
2018vs Left .256 325 94 25 76 16 2 6
2018vs Right .227 404 113 17 87 18 1 13
2017vs Left .221 359 104 26 72 18 0 12
2017vs Right .198 424 126 25 78 12 0 9
2016vs Left .263 151 32 12 36 7 1 4
2016vs Right .286 161 34 13 42 14 0 7
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-9%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-40%
ERA on Road
2016
 
 
-9%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.81 1.11 222.0 18 11 0 10.4 2.4 1.3
Since 2016Away 3.45 1.18 221.2 16 11 0 10.0 2.4 0.8
2018Home 2.86 1.05 85.0 9 2 0 11.0 2.2 0.8
2018Away 4.01 1.23 94.1 8 6 0 9.8 2.0 1.0
2017Home 3.71 1.04 97.0 8 5 0 10.6 2.4 1.4
2017Away 2.24 1.04 96.1 6 1 0 10.8 2.3 0.6
2016Home 6.08 1.43 40.0 1 4 0 8.8 2.7 2.0
2016Away 5.52 1.48 31.0 2 4 0 7.8 3.8 0.6
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Stat Review
How does Luis Severino compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
4.93
 
K/9
10.4
 
BB/9
2.1
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
97.7 mph
 
ERA
3.46
 
WHIP
1.14
 
BABIP
.325
 
GB/FB
1.39
 
Strand %
73.1%
 
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Hit hard by Oakland
PNew York Yankees
September 6, 2018
Severino (17-7) got the loss Wednesday, allowing six runs (five earned) on six hits and a walk while striking out three over 2.2 innings against the Athletics.
ANALYSIS
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Fans 10 in quality start
PNew York Yankees
August 31, 2018
Severino didn't factor into the decision Friday against the Tigers, allowing three runs on six hits while striking out 10 across six innings.
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Gets 17th win
PNew York Yankees
August 26, 2018
Severino (17-6) got the win against the Orioles on Sunday, giving up two earned runs on four hits over 5.2 innings. He struck out eight and walked two in the Yankees' 5-3 victory.
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Strikes out eight in bounceback start
PNew York Yankees
August 18, 2018
Severino improved to 16-6 on the season after allowing two runs in five innings against the Blue Jays on Saturday. He walked two and gave up six hits while striking out eight.
ANALYSIS
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Surrenders four runs in loss
PNew York Yankees
August 13, 2018
Severino (15-6) allowed four runs on seven hits and one walk while striking out six across four innings as he was saddled with the loss Monday against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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