Aaron Nola

28-Year-Old PitcherSP

Philadelphia Phillies

2021 Stats

W-L

9-9

ERA

4.63

WHIP

1.13

223

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2021 Fantasy Outlook

Nola was a rare bright spot on the Phillies' pitching staff last season, posting a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts, the second-best mark of his six-year career. That helped him to a seventh-place finish in the NL Cy Young race, his second top-10 showing in the last three seasons. There's a case he deserved even better, as Baseball Prospectus' DRA pegged him as the top starter in the NL, while his 2.79 xFIP ranked second. His big improvement last season came in his strikeout rate, which had settled in between 25% and 27% in that category over the previous four seasons but jumped all the way up to 33.2% last year, good for sixth among qualified starters, just ahead of Gerrit Cole. That jump was backed up by an increase in his whiff rate from 26.6% to 31.3%. If those gains hold in 2021, he could move into the back of the top tier of fantasy arms, jumping up from the solid second-tier option he's been in recent seasons. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#23

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 200

DOB 6/4/1993

Born Baton Rouge, LA

College LSU

Drafted 1st Rd 2014 PHI

Logs quality start in final outing

PPhiladelphia Phillies

September 29, 2021

Nola (9-9) took the loss Wednesday against Atlanta, surrendering three runs on seven hits and a pair of walks over six innings. He had four strikeouts.

ANALYSIS
Atlanta jumped on Nola for a pair of runs in the first inning with an Austin Riley RBI single and an Adam Duvall run-scoring groundout. Nola settled down after that, giving up just one run the rest of the way, but it wasn't enough to avoid the loss. The 28-year-old finishes a disappointing 2021 regular season with a 4.63 ERA -- his highest since 2016 -- despite a sparkling 223:39 K:BB over 180.2 innings.

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Pitching Stats

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2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2019

-3%

BAA vs LHP

2021

-13%

BAA vs LHP

2020

Even Split

2019

-5%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2019vs Left	.226	874	258	71	179	41	7	27
Since 2019vs Right	.233	1004	286	69	213	34	1	35
2021vs Left	.221	372	121	17	77	15	4	14
2021vs Right	.254	377	102	22	88	14	1	12
2020vs Left	.202	126	32	15	22	11	0	2
2020vs Right	.201	151	60	6	29	1	0	7
2019vs Left	.240	376	105	39	80	15	3	11
2019vs Right	.227	476	124	41	96	19	0	16
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2019

-37%

ERA at Home

2021

-27%

ERA at Home

2020

-35%

ERA at Home

2019

-44%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2019Home	3.17	1.07	238.2	14	6	0	11.5	2.7	1.0
Since 2019Away	5.05	1.28	212.0	12	14	0	10.1	2.9	1.5
2021Home	3.86	1.00	81.2	5	3	0	12.3	1.3	1.2
2021Away	5.27	1.23	99.0	4	6	0	10.1	2.5	1.4
2020Home	2.50	0.81	39.2	3	1	0	12.0	2.7	0.9
2020Away	3.86	1.29	28.0	2	3	0	11.9	2.6	1.6
2019Home	2.91	1.21	117.1	6	2	0	10.7	3.6	0.9
2019Away	5.19	1.34	85.0	6	5	0	9.5	3.5	1.6
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

5.72

K/9

11.1

BB/9

1.9

HR/9

1.3

Fastball

92.7 mph

ERA

4.63

WHIP

1.13

BABIP

.327

GB/FB

1.20

Left On Base

65.0%

Exit Velocity

81.6 mph

Barrels/BBE

4.1%

Spin Rate

2129 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

22.7%

Swinging Strike

13.1%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola

MLB Betting: Wednesday Best Bets

19 days ago

Michael Rathburn digs in for Wednesday's MLB slate where Boston finds itself in a must-win situation. Can starter Nathan Eovaldi deliver against the Orioles in Camden Yards?

DraftKings MLB: Wednesday Breakdown

19 days ago

Mike Barner sets the tone for Wednesday’s DraftKings offering, recommending a Red Sox stack against the Orioles.

FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Targets

19 days ago

Chris Morgan checks out Wednesday's slate and recommends Xander Bogaerts as part of a Red Sox stack against the Orioles.

Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Saving the Best For Last

23 days ago

Todd Zola ranks the starting pitching for the final weekend of the season, as Zack Wheeler has two more chances to embellish his Cy Young resume.

DraftKings MLB: Thursday Breakdown

25 days ago

Mike Barner previews Thursday's limited DraftKings slate, recommending a Rangers stack against Baltimore.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Nola was poor at both ends of the 2019 season, posting a 6.84 ERA over his first five starts and a 6.51 mark over his final five. In between those two stretches, he was in vintage form, recording a 2.89 ERA and a 27.1 K%. The entire season's stats count, of course, so those who drafted Nola likely weren't happy with his 3.87 ERA overall. The 26-year-old doesn't appear to have been a victim of too much bad luck, as that figure was right around his 4.03 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. His walk rate took a big step back, jumping from 7.0% to 9.4%, a worrying development given that command and control have been Nola's calling card for the entirety of his career. There's still plenty of upside here, as the good version of Nola is just a small step outside baseball's top tier of starting pitchers, but last year's version was a merely good pitcher. The Phillies will hope a new regime brings out the best in their ace.

Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher.

Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.

Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.

When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.

Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.

More Fantasy News

Permits six runs in win

PPhiladelphia Phillies

September 23, 2021

Nola (9-8) got the win in Thursday's 12-6 victory over Pittsburgh, allowing six runs on six hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in six innings.