Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $45 million contract extension with the Phillies in February of 2019. Contract includes $16 million team option for 2023.
Fans 10 in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 21, 2019
Nola (6-2) was saddled with the loss after yielding one run on six hits and a walk while striking out 10 over eight innings Friday against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
Nola surrendered a solo home run in the second inning, but he managed to finish his outing with six scoreless frames. Unfortunately, his offense was unable to produce more than one run, and he'd ultimately get hit with his second loss of 2019. Nola now owns a 4.55 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with a 100:37 K:BB across 89 innings this season.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-12%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .229 902 233 87 185 34 7 23
Since 2017vs Right .225 1013 275 57 210 40 1 26
2019vs Left .286 153 43 19 38 6 2 6
2019vs Right .252 238 57 18 54 8 0 8
2018vs Left .187 416 114 37 70 12 1 9
2018vs Right .207 415 110 21 79 19 1 8
2017vs Left .256 333 76 31 77 16 4 8
2017vs Right .227 360 108 18 77 13 0 10
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-56%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 2.76 1.10 264.1 22 8 0 10.5 2.6 0.9
Since 2017Away 3.78 1.20 205.0 13 11 0 8.7 2.9 1.0
2019Home 3.19 1.37 59.1 3 1 0 10.2 3.6 0.8
2019Away 7.28 1.62 29.2 3 1 0 10.0 3.9 2.7
2018Home 2.34 1.02 111.1 10 2 0 10.6 2.3 0.8
2018Away 2.41 0.92 101.0 7 4 0 8.3 2.6 0.6
2017Home 2.98 1.04 93.2 9 5 0 10.7 2.3 1.1
2017Away 4.24 1.43 74.1 3 6 0 8.8 3.0 0.8
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Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 40 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.70
 
K/9
10.1
 
BB/9
3.7
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
92.6 mph
 
ERA
4.55
 
WHIP
1.45
 
BABIP
.341
 
GB/FB
1.82
 
Left On Base
75.0%
 
Exit Velocity
89.6 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.9%
 
Spin Rate
2195 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
41.1%
 
Swinging Strike
9.8%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
2 days ago
Erik Siegrist offers his weekly skim of the free-agent pool and finds that Liam Hendriks is one of a number of relievers poised to take advantage of unexpected closer turmoil in the Junior Circuit.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Down Week for Double Dippers
3 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitchers as Houston's Gerrit Cole is one of the few quality hurlers with two starts this week.
FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown
4 days ago
Adam Zdroik recommends plugging in Max Kepler as part of a Twins stack Friday against Jakob Junis and the Royals.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Friday Picks
4 days ago
Sasha Yodashkin subs in with some recommendations for Yahoo's 14-game Friday slate.
DraftKings MLB: Friday Picks
4 days ago
Walker Buehler looks like a good pick, as the Dodgers are heavy favorites at -175 agains the Rockies, and the game also has a low 7.5 run total.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Listed as Friday's starter
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 19, 2019
The Phillies are listing Nola as their probable starter for Friday's game against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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Bailed out by late comeback
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 16, 2019
Nola didn't factor into the decision in Saturday's 6-5 win over Atlanta, giving up five runs on six hits and two walks over 4.1 innings while striking out four.
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Settles for no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 9, 2019
Nola allowed three runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and three walks across 6.2 innings during a no-decision against the Reds on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Takes first loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
June 3, 2019
Nola (6-1) took the loss against the Padres on Monday, giving up six earned runs on eight hits over 5.1 innings, striking out five and walking three as the Phillies lost 8-2.
ANALYSIS
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Records sixth win with seven strong
PPhiladelphia Phillies
May 29, 2019
Nola (6-0) earned the win against the Cardinals on Wednesday by allowing one run on four hits over seven innings. He struck out eight and walked three.
ANALYSIS
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