Aaron Nola Fantasy News & Stats

Aaron Nola

25-Year-Old PitcherSP

Philadelphia Phillies

2018 Stats

W-L

17-6

ERA

2.37

WHIP

0.97

224

2019 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2019 Fantasy Outlook

Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

#25

ADP

Overall

Starting Pitcher

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League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 200

DOB 6/4/1993

Born Baton Rouge, LA

College LSU

Drafted 1st Rd 2014 PHI

To get work in minor-league game

PPhiladelphia Phillies

March 16, 2019

Nola's next start will come in a minor-league game, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

ANALYSIS
Nola was poor in his Grapefruit League start Saturday against the Astros, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks while striking out two in 2.2 innings. There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with him, though, as the plan is in place simply to help the team monitor his workload. Nola is expected to throw 90 pitches in his next start, putting him well-positioned to go as long as necessary on Opening Day. That would be a welcome contrast from Opening Day of last season, when Nola was pulled after 68 pitches and the bullpen subsequently blew the lead.

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Pitching Stats

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Minor League Game Log

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Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2016

-4%

BAA vs LHP

2018

-10%

BAA vs LHP

2017

-11%

BAA vs RHP

2016

-15%

BAA vs LHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2016vs Left	.223	977	240	88	196	38	6	23
Since 2016vs Right	.233	1030	289	48	223	42	4	22
2018vs Left	.187	416	114	37	70	12	1	9
2018vs Right	.207	415	110	21	79	19	1	8
2017vs Left	.256	333	76	31	77	16	4	8
2017vs Right	.227	360	108	18	77	13	0	10
2016vs Left	.241	228	50	20	49	10	1	6
2016vs Right	.284	255	71	9	67	10	3	4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2016

-16%

ERA at Home

2018

-3%

ERA at Home

2017

-30%

ERA at Home

2016

-4%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2016Home	3.05	1.09	256.0	21	13	0	10.6	2.3	1.1
Since 2016Away	3.61	1.18	234.1	14	13	0	8.6	2.7	0.6
2018Home	2.34	1.02	111.1	10	2	0	10.6	2.3	0.8
2018Away	2.41	0.92	101.0	7	4	0	8.3	2.6	0.6
2017Home	2.98	1.04	93.2	9	5	0	10.7	2.3	1.1
2017Away	4.24	1.43	74.1	3	6	0	8.8	3.0	0.8
2016Home	4.67	1.31	52.0	2	6	0	10.7	2.4	1.6
2016Away	4.88	1.31	59.0	4	3	0	9.0	2.3	0.2
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Stat Review

How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

K/BB

3.86

K/9

9.5

BB/9

2.5

HR/9

0.7

Fastball

92.4 mph

ERA

2.37

WHIP

0.97

BABIP

.260

GB/FB

1.99

Strand %

79.5%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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25 days ago

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2018

2017

2016

2015

Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.

Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.

When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.

Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.

More Fantasy News

Receives Opening Day assignment

PPhiladelphia Phillies

March 9, 2019

Manager Gabe Kapler announced Friday that Nola would start the Phillies' Opening Day game March 28 versus the Braves, ESPN.com reports.