Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a four-year, $45 million contract extension with the Phillies in February of 2019. Contract includes $16 million team option for 2023.
Inks four-year extension
PPhiladelphia Phillies
February 13, 2019
Nola agreed to a four-year, $45 million contract extension with the Phillies on Wednesday that includes a club option, avoiding arbitration, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
Nola was spectacular for the Phillies last season, producing a 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 224:58 K:BB in 212.1 innings pitched. The Phillies opted to lock their star pitcher up for the next four years rather than go through the arbitration processes. With his contract situation resolved, Nola can now turn his focus to leading the Phillies' rotation.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .223 977 240 88 196 38 6 23
Since 2016vs Right .233 1030 289 48 223 42 4 22
2018vs Left .187 416 114 37 70 12 1 9
2018vs Right .207 415 110 21 79 19 1 8
2017vs Left .256 333 76 31 77 16 4 8
2017vs Right .227 360 108 18 77 13 0 10
2016vs Left .241 228 50 20 49 10 1 6
2016vs Right .284 255 71 9 67 10 3 4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-16%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-4%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.05 1.09 256.0 21 13 0 10.6 2.3 1.1
Since 2016Away 3.61 1.18 234.1 14 13 0 8.6 2.7 0.6
2018Home 2.34 1.02 111.1 10 2 0 10.6 2.3 0.8
2018Away 2.41 0.92 101.0 7 4 0 8.3 2.6 0.6
2017Home 2.98 1.04 93.2 9 5 0 10.7 2.3 1.1
2017Away 4.24 1.43 74.1 3 6 0 8.8 3.0 0.8
2016Home 4.67 1.31 52.0 2 6 0 10.7 2.4 1.6
2016Away 4.88 1.31 59.0 4 3 0 9.0 2.3 0.2
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Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
3.86
 
K/9
9.5
 
BB/9
2.5
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
92.4 mph
 
ERA
2.37
 
WHIP
0.97
 
BABIP
.260
 
GB/FB
1.99
 
Strand %
79.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Dominates in 17th win
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 29, 2018
Nola (17-6) threw seven scoreless innings to pick up the win over the Braves on Saturday. He worked around two hits and four walks while striking out eight.
ANALYSIS
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To pitch Saturday vs. Braves
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 27, 2018
Nola will take the mound Saturday against Atlanta for his final start of the 2018 season, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
ANALYSIS
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Takes tough-luck loss to Braves
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 23, 2018
Nola (16-6) allowed two runs on four hits and one walk across six innings Sunday while taking the loss against the Braves. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Falls short of quality start
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 18, 2018
Nola allowed two runs on six hits over 5.2 innings during Tuesday's 5-2 win over the Mets. He struck out nine and did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Takes fifth loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 12, 2018
Nola (16-5) took the loss Wednesday, giving up four runs on six hits and a walk over five innings while striking out five as the Phillies fell 5-1 to the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
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