Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a four-year, $45 million contract extension with the Phillies in February of 2019. Contract includes $16 million team option for 2023.
Won't start again
PPhiladelphia Phillies
Rest
September 26, 2019
Nola will not make another start this season, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
ANALYSIS
Nola was originally scheduled to start Sunday's season finale against the Marlins, but with the Phillies no longer vying for a playoff spot, the team decided to shut down its ace. The right-hander will finish the season 12-7 with a 3.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 229:80 K:BB across 34 starts (202.1 innings).
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
98
Last 10 Games
98
Last 5 Games
94
How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-5%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .225 1125 295 107 227 43 8 28
Since 2017vs Right .221 1251 342 80 252 51 1 34
2019vs Left .240 376 105 39 80 15 3 11
2019vs Right .227 476 124 41 96 19 0 16
2018vs Left .187 416 114 37 70 12 1 9
2018vs Right .207 415 110 21 79 19 1 8
2017vs Left .256 333 76 31 77 16 4 8
2017vs Right .227 360 108 18 77 13 0 10
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 2.74 1.10 322.1 25 9 0 10.6 2.8 0.9
Since 2017Away 3.84 1.20 260.1 16 15 0 8.9 3.0 1.0
2019Home 2.91 1.21 117.1 6 2 0 10.7 3.6 0.9
2019Away 5.19 1.34 85.0 6 5 0 9.5 3.5 1.6
2018Home 2.34 1.02 111.1 10 2 0 10.6 2.3 0.8
2018Away 2.41 0.92 101.0 7 4 0 8.3 2.6 0.6
2017Home 2.98 1.04 93.2 9 5 0 10.7 2.3 1.1
2017Away 4.24 1.43 74.1 3 6 0 8.8 3.0 0.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.86
 
K/9
10.2
 
BB/9
3.6
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
92.9 mph
 
ERA
3.87
 
WHIP
1.27
 
BABIP
.304
 
GB/FB
1.88
 
Left On Base
75.6%
 
Exit Velocity
89.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.3%
 
Spin Rate
2189 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
39.9%
 
Swinging Strike
11.4%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola
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Todd Zola looks back on his TGFBI-winning roster and notes there was more than luck involved in him drafting breakout players like Cody Bellinger.
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26 days ago
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33 days ago
Scott Jenstad likes Mike Clevinger against the Twins, as he has gone for 43-plus FanDuel Points in 11 of 13 and is a cash staple with GPP upside.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Nationals, Astros Dominate Top-5
33 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching has the Astros and Nationals have separated themselves from the pack.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Surrenders another five runs
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 24, 2019
Nola (12-7) allowed five earned runs on five hits and four walks while striking out nine across 5.2 innings to take the loss Tuesday against the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard by Braves
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 19, 2019
Nola (12-6) allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks while striking out four across five innings to take the loss Thursday against the Braves.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out nine in no-decision
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 14, 2019
Nola struck out nine batters in seven innings Saturday against the Red Sox, allowing a single run on four hits and three walks. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Yields four runs in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 9, 2019
Nola (12-5) allowed four runs on six hits with four walks and seven strikeouts across six innings while taking a loss against the Braves on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard by Reds
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 4, 2019
Nola didn't factor into the decision in Wednesday's 8-5 loss to the Reds, giving up five runs on five hits and three walks over four innings while striking out six.
ANALYSIS
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