Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2018 Fantasy Outlook
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Phillies in March of 2018.
Takes tough-luck loss to Braves
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 23, 2018
Nola (16-6) allowed two runs on four hits and one walk across six innings Sunday while taking the loss against the Braves. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
Nola threw 72 percent of his pitches for strikes and induced nine groundball outs as he largely kept the home team in check. He allowed a run on a pair of doubles in the second inning and then another on a solo home run in the fifth. This was a nice bounce-back performance for Nola, who had failed to complete six innings in either of his previous two starts, and the quality start was his second in the last five. The 25-year-old has blossomed into a frontline starter in 2018 and will make what will likely be his final regular-season appearance Friday against this same Atlanta club.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2016
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2016vs Left .228 951 234 84 195 38 6 23
Since 2016vs Right .233 1007 281 47 218 40 4 21
2018vs Left .195 390 108 33 69 12 1 9
2018vs Right .206 392 102 20 74 17 1 7
2017vs Left .256 333 76 31 77 16 4 8
2017vs Right .227 360 108 18 77 13 0 10
2016vs Left .241 228 50 20 49 10 1 6
2016vs Right .284 255 71 9 67 10 3 4
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2016
 
 
-14%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-5%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2016
 
 
-4%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2016Home 3.13 1.09 249.0 20 13 0 10.7 2.3 1.1
Since 2016Away 3.63 1.19 228.1 14 12 0 8.6 2.7 0.6
2018Home 2.50 1.04 104.1 9 2 0 10.6 2.2 0.9
2018Away 2.37 0.93 95.0 7 3 0 8.2 2.7 0.6
2017Home 2.98 1.04 93.2 9 5 0 10.7 2.3 1.1
2017Away 4.24 1.43 74.1 3 6 0 8.8 3.0 0.8
2016Home 4.67 1.31 52.0 2 6 0 10.7 2.4 1.6
2016Away 4.88 1.31 59.0 4 3 0 9.0 2.3 0.2
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Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings). The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
K/BB
4.00
 
K/9
9.5
 
BB/9
2.4
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
92.4 mph
 
ERA
2.45
 
WHIP
0.98
 
BABIP
.264
 
GB/FB
1.92
 
Strand %
78.8%
 
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2017
2016
2015
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Falls short of quality start
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 18, 2018
Nola allowed two runs on six hits over 5.2 innings during Tuesday's 5-2 win over the Mets. He struck out nine and did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Takes fifth loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 12, 2018
Nola (16-5) took the loss Wednesday, giving up four runs on six hits and a walk over five innings while striking out five as the Phillies fell 5-1 to the Nationals.
ANALYSIS
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Fans eight in win over Mets
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 8, 2018
Nola (16-4) picked up the win Friday, giving up three runs on three hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out eight in a 4-3 victory over the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Tabbed with fourth loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 2, 2018
Nola (15-4) allowed four runs on five hits and two walks while striking out 11 over 5.2 innings as he took the loss Sunday against the Cubs.
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To start Sunday vs. Cubs
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 29, 2018
Manager Gabe Kapler elected to move Nola up in the rotation as his next start will now come against the Cubs on Sunday, Meghan Montemurro of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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