Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Philadelphia Phillies
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Nola was poor at both ends of the 2019 season, posting a 6.84 ERA over his first five starts and a 6.51 mark over his final five. In between those two stretches, he was in vintage form, recording a 2.89 ERA and a 27.1 K%. The entire season's stats count, of course, so those who drafted Nola likely weren't happy with his 3.87 ERA overall. The 26-year-old doesn't appear to have been a victim of too much bad luck, as that figure was right around his 4.03 FIP and 3.82 xFIP. His walk rate took a big step back, jumping from 7.0% to 9.4%, a worrying development given that command and control have been Nola's calling card for the entirety of his career. There's still plenty of upside here, as the good version of Nola is just a small step outside baseball's top tier of starting pitchers, but last year's version was a merely good pitcher. The Phillies will hope a new regime brings out the best in their ace. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#58
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$Signed a four-year, $45 million contract extension with the Phillies in February of 2019. Contract includes $16 million team option for 2023.
Dazzles against Yankees
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 5, 2020
Nola allowed one earned run on three hits and no walks while striking out 12 across six innings in the second game of a doubleheader Wednesday against the Yankees. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
Nola dominated the Yankees in his first start in 12 days, with the lone run he surrendered coming on a solo shot by Luke Voit. He generated 19 swinging strikes and 18 called strikes on 88 total pitches to match a career high in strikeouts. This was only Nola's second start of the season due to a realigned schedule, though he has struck out 19 and walked only one in 11.1 innings of work. He's scheduled to take the mound again Monday against Atlanta.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
84
Last 10 Games
84
Last 5 Games
84
How many pitches does Aaron Nola generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Aaron Nola generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-51%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-5%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .211 802 224 76 151 28 4 20
Since 2018vs Right .218 923 248 63 182 38 1 26
2020vs Left .111 10 5 0 1 1 0 0
2020vs Right .226 32 14 1 7 0 0 2
2019vs Left .240 376 105 39 80 15 3 11
2019vs Right .227 476 124 41 96 19 0 16
2018vs Left .187 416 114 37 70 12 1 9
2018vs Right .207 415 110 21 79 19 1 8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-44%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 2.70 1.10 240.0 16 5 0 10.8 2.9 0.9
Since 2018Away 3.68 1.11 186.0 13 9 0 8.9 3.0 1.1
2020Home 3.97 0.79 11.1 0 1 0 15.1 0.8 1.6
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 2.91 1.21 117.1 6 2 0 10.7 3.6 0.9
2019Away 5.19 1.34 85.0 6 5 0 9.5 3.5 1.6
2018Home 2.34 1.02 111.1 10 2 0 10.6 2.3 0.8
2018Away 2.41 0.92 101.0 7 4 0 8.3 2.6 0.6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Aaron Nola compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
19.00
 
K/9
15.1
 
BB/9
0.8
 
HR/9
1.6
 
Fastball
92.1 mph
 
ERA
3.97
 
WHIP
0.79
 
BABIP
.316
 
GB/FB
0.70
 
Left On Base
64.5%
 
Exit Velocity
82.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.5%
 
Spin Rate
2102 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
22.5%
 
Swinging Strike
19.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Nola
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: The Rich Get Richer
7 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as Jacob deGrom is one of a number of top-tier pitchers scheduled for two starts.
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12 days ago
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Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Bottom of the Barrel
14 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as the Yankees' Gerrit Cole is one of the few top starters with two starts in the next scoring period.
FanDuel MLB: Friday Targets
15 days ago
Chris Bennett delivers his insights for building a winning FanDuel lineup for Friday's main MLB slate.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Buy One, Get One Free
16 days ago
Todd Zola ranks starting pitching for the opening weekend of baseball's new season and includes a look ahead to next week.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Nola reached new heights in 2018, putting himself in the Cy Young conversation for the first time during his fourth big-league season. He held onto gains in his fastball velocity and reached career highs in starts (33), innings (212.1) and strikeout rate (27%) while recording a career-low 2.37 ERA. Regression will likely come for Nola to a certain extent, as he beat his FIP by 64 points despite the Phillies having one of the worst defenses in recent memory. He doesn't have a history of outperforming his peripherals (despite the sort of command-driven profile often associated with that outcome), so his low ERA can be attributed at least in part to a .251 BABIP and an 82.5% strand rate. Still, improvements in the Phillies' defense could offset some of the inevitable regression, and he has plenty of room to fall back and still be a very valuable pitcher.
Derailed by an elbow injury in 2016, Nola looked like he could have his development stunted again after a back strain forced him to the DL for about a month early last season. Much to the delight of fantasy owners, Nola returned to action in late May and re-established himself as the Phillies' unquestioned ace, turning in a 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB from June onward. With the elbow issues behind him, Nola noticed increased velocity from all three of his offerings last season, supporting his case for remaining a strikeout-per-inning pitcher going forward. As he embarks on his age-25 campaign, Nola won't stand to see much of a bump in his win total unless the Phillies' rebuilding effort takes a quantum leap forward, but with his health sound heading into spring training, he profiles as a strong three-category pillar with some dark-horse Cy Young potential if he can reach 200 innings and/or 200 strikeouts.
Nola entered 2016 with high expectations and delivered early on with a 2.65 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 through his first 12 starts. Things started to go downhill in June as Nola started to struggle with his command and became more hittable. He insisted he was healthy, but by late July it was clear he was not. The velocity on his sinker, which typically sits around 91 mph, was down to 88.3 mph. The Phillies placed him on the disabled list and he was diagnosed with a sprained UCL, which ended his season. Nola received a platelet-rich plasma injection in August and was able to begin a throwing program in late September. There is no guarantee Nola will avoid having surgery, but he made it through his offseason rehab program and will be ready for a normal spring training. He'll be a risky investment given his elbow issue, but he could return significant value if he finds his form from early last season.
When Nola was taken with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, the expectation was that he would make it to the majors quickly. A little over one year later he was in the majors and became the ace of a very thin Phillies pitching staff. Nola's fastball averages just 90.5 mph, but he has excellent command and keeps hitters off-balance with a sinker, curve and changeup. Nola was really tough on right-handed batters, holding them to a .212 batting average against, but he needs to find an out pitch against lefties as they hit .310 against him. Nola's future is bright but expectations should be somewhat tempered. He does not possess big-time strikeout ability and will pitch for what should be one of the worst teams in the majors this year. Long term, he seems likely to settle in as a solid mid-rotation starter.
Nola, the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, went a combined 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 45:10 K:BB in 55.1 innings between High-A and Double-A after signing with the Phillies in June. Nola commands all three of his pitches very well, mixing a 91-93 mph fastball with sink, a changeup that occasionally flashes as a plus offering, and a slider. His ceiling may not be as high as the other elite starting pitchers in the 2014 draft class, but he presents the highest floor of the bunch and is likely to be the first starter from the class to reach the big leagues, perhaps as soon as this season.
More Fantasy News
Starting Game 2 on Wednesday
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 4, 2020
Nola will start Game 2 of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Yankees, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.
ANALYSIS
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Tuesday's start postponed
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 3, 2020
Nola won't make his scheduled start Tuesday against the Yankees, as the game has been postponed due to threats of severe weather.
ANALYSIS
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Lines up for two-start week
PPhiladelphia Phillies
August 3, 2020
Nola is slated to start Tuesday's game against the Yankees in New York, Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Start vs. Blue Jays postponed
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 30, 2020
Nola's scheduled start against the Blue Jays on Saturday has been postponed, Scott Mitchell of TSN.ca reports.
ANALYSIS
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Won't start before Saturday
PPhiladelphia Phillies
July 29, 2020
Nola won't start before Saturday at the earliest, with all Phillies games prior to that date postponed, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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