Trea Turner
Trea Turner
27-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Washington Nationals
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Don't overthink this; Turner is an easy first-rounder in virtually all rotisserie formats. The speedster was a top performer during the shortened 2020 season, finishing behind only Jose Abreu and Fernando Tatis among hitters in roto leagues. He shaved six percentage points off his strikeout rate (to 13.9%) while besting his previous career high in ISO by 28 points. Most of his damage was done against fastballs, with 23 of his 31 extra-base hits coming off heaters. Statcast suggests he overachieved on breaking pitches, but even so Turner was in the 96th percentile in xBA. While his success rate on the bases took a hit, Turner's sprint speed remained in the 99th percentile, so it's not like he's lost a step already at age 27. Turner's past injury history looms, but Turner in theory provides a five-category foundation, and by easing the speed burden early, opens up your choices with subsequent draft picks. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
$Signed a one-year, $13 million contract with the Nationals in January of 2021.
Gets eight figures
SSWashington Nationals
January 15, 2021
Turner and the Nationals agreed to a one-year, $13 million deal Friday, avoiding arbitration, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The star shortstop gets a big raise compared to the $7.45 million deal he signed last offseason. It's hard to say that's undeserved, as he's coming off a year in which he hit an excellent .335/.394/.588 with 12 homers and 12 steals over 59 games. Prorated to a standard 162-game season, that translates to 32.4 homers and steals, which would be a full-season low in the latter category for Turner but which would smash his previous career best of 19 homers.
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Batting Stats
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2019
2018
2017
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
26
13
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
13
2
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2018
 
 
+5%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+30%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+6%
OPS vs RHP
2018
 
 
+6%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018vs Left .862 375 66 8 38 25 .313 .384 .478
Since 2018vs Right .818 1183 176 41 126 65 .285 .346 .472
2020vs Left 1.191 58 15 3 8 3 .392 .466 .725
2020vs Right .918 191 28 8 26 9 .322 .372 .546
2019vs Left .812 128 21 2 6 8 .316 .367 .444
2019vs Right .862 441 75 17 51 27 .292 .349 .512
2018vs Left .796 189 30 3 24 14 .287 .370 .425
2018vs Right .748 551 73 16 49 29 .266 .335 .412
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2018
Even Split
2020
 
 
+37%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+5%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+10%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2018Home .829 789 122 25 91 47 .287 .360 .469
Since 2018Away .825 773 121 24 73 43 .295 .350 .475
2020Home .822 131 18 4 14 9 .261 .344 .478
2020Away 1.124 122 26 7 20 3 .407 .443 .681
2019Home .872 291 51 11 35 15 .305 .361 .511
2019Away .828 278 45 8 22 20 .290 .345 .482
2018Home .796 367 53 10 42 23 .282 .366 .430
2018Away .724 373 50 9 31 20 .261 .323 .402
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Stat Review
How does Trea Turner compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.61
 
BB Rate
8.5%
 
K Rate
13.9%
 
BABIP
.353
 
ISO
.253
 
AVG
.335
 
OBP
.394
 
SLG
.588
 
OPS
.982
 
wOBA
.416
 
Exit Velocity
83.7 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
36.7%
 
Barrels/PA
6.8%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Trea Turner
Bernie on the Scene: Analyzing NL Offseason Moves
8 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes some key offseason moves in the National League, including the Indians shipping Francisco Lindor to the Mets.
The Z Files: Your Favorites At Six
26 days ago
Todd Zola marvels at the depth and quality available at shortstop and offers some advice on how to construct an offense around an early-round speedster like Trea Turner.
The Z Files: Flexibility Second To None
40 days ago
Todd Zola breaks down his tiers at the keystone and finds a plethora of multiple eligibility options, including the Mets' Jeff McNeil.
The Z Files: Early Draft Pick Follies
85 days ago
Todd Zola looks at how early selections can impact subsequent picks when constructing a roster, and why simply taking the "best" player available isn't always the best course of action.
The Z Files: The Two-Headed Monster
101 days ago
Todd Zola reviews his first draft of 2021 and explains why he finds value in co-managing the team, as well as why Juan Soto got the nod with the eighth overall pick.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Turner had 171 fewer plate appearances in 2019 than he had in 2018, and met or nearly exceeded his statistics across the board. He missed time early in the season when the Nationals were struggling, and returned to help carry them all the way to a World Series victory. Tim Locastro is the only player in baseball with a higher sprint speed than Turner, and Turner does not hesitate to use his speed on the bases under the aggressive style of Davey Martinez. There is absolutely no doubt Turner's skills and abilities are worth $35-plus in auctions and a first-round pick in straight drafts, but the fact that he has had just one season in which he avoided the injury bug is what holds many back from drafting him. There are safer players out there to acquire for your team, but there are precious few that offer the production that Turner is capable of when he's healthy. He could be a top-five player in a full season.
Those passing on Turner fearing he was an injury risk paid the price last season. He was one of only seven players to appear in 162 games on the way to leading the Senior Circuit with 740 PA. He also paced the NL in pilfers with 43, his second straight season with at least 40. Turner's fantasy allure is steals without sacrificing power -- he set a career high with 19 long balls. He's established a high floor; the question is whether he's worthy of a top-10 pick. Keeping in mind Turner didn't miss a game last season, he finished the season just outside the top-10 overall. As such, he'd need to improve on last season's numbers, which will be a chore considering the huge volume of at-bats. The pathway would be a higher batting average, as last season's .314 BABIP was below his career mark. Still, it's a matter of philosophy and roster construction. Steals are one category, and other first rounders contribute elite production in multiple categories.
Can we please stop the "Turner doesn't have the track record to be a first-rounder" nonsense? If you want to argue injury-risk, OK, you have a point... maybe. However, there's no denying that Turner's skills are elite. He deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon with respect to steals, while hitting well more than twice as many homers as them, combined. Double-digit homers with at least 50 steals is first-round material, especially since his contact rate and groundball proclivity portend a fantasy-friendly batting average. That brings us to health. In 2015, his first full season as a professional, Turner played 142 games, most at Double- and Triple-A before appearing in 27 with the Nationals. In 2016, he played 156 contests, split between Triple-A and the majors. If you want to avoid a first-round talent because he was hit by a pitch in late June, costing him about two months, that's your prerogative.
Turner didn't have anything more to prove in the minors, but the Nationals sent him back to Syracuse anyway so he could hit .302/.370/.471 in 331 at-bats with 25 steals before finally getting a long-overdue promotion. If he was frustrated by his slow progress up the ladder, he took it out on opposing pitchers. While his .342 batting average was the product of an unsustainable .391 BABIP, his contact rates and batting averages have always been excellent, and 33 steals in 73 big league games isn't out of line with his minor league theatrics on the basepaths. The real surprise was the power he flashed at the highest level. After hitting just 19 home runs in 268 minor league games, Turner slugged 13 in 73 games with Washington. If that power proves to be even partially sustainable (and his 16.7 percent HR/FB rate, while high, wasn't outrageous), the Nats suddenly find themselves with a 23-year-old five-category shortstop, and a future pillar of the franchise.
Acquired from the Padres in the three-team deal that sent Steven Souza to the Rays, Turner immediately became the Nationals' shortstop of the future, a future that might begin as soon as 2016 with Ian Desmond leaving in free agency. The 13th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Turner's plus-plus wheels are his major selling point, but his line drive swing produces excellent contact and his plate discipline should allow him to stick as a leadoff hitter. The Nats still have Danny Espinosa as a stop-gap at shortstop, so they don't need to rush Turner, but with Denard Span also on his way out the door they have a need at the top of the batting order as well as at shortstop that Turner could fill admirably if he reaches his full potential. An impressive showing in spring training could land him in the Opening Day starting lineup, but even if the team decides to delay his arbitration clock, his stay at Triple-A this year should be a brief one.
A former college teammate of highly coveted lefty Carlos Rodon, Turner closed out a three-year career at North Carolina State with a .342/.435/.507 line and 113 stolen bases in 127 attempts over 173 games despite an ankle injury that limited his impact as a basestealer during his sophomore campaign. Speed is easily Turner's best tool and he's an 80-grade runner, while his bat and plate discipline should be good enough for him to develop into a leadoff hitter at the big league level down the road. Defensively, Turner shifted to shortstop after the 2013 season for the Wolfpack, and it's believed that he has the footwork necessary to stick at short as he advances, and the arm strength necessary to handle third base if it's decided he's a better fit there. Upon signing, Turner went 23-for-27 as a basestealer at short-season Eugene and Low-A Fort Wayne, while toting an impressive .369/.447/.529 line over 46 contests at the latter stop. Turner was named as the player to be named later in the Will Myers trade, but won't join the Nationals until next June due to a technicality. His 2015 status may be murky as a result, but he's seen as a potential impact player when he finally starts playing for his new organization.
More Fantasy News
Drives in seven runs
SSWashington Nationals
September 27, 2020
Turner went 2-for-5 with a grand slam, seven RBI, two runs scored and a walk in Sunday's 15-5 win over the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Launches 11th homer
SSWashington Nationals
September 27, 2020
Turner went 2-for-4 with a solo home run during a 5-3 win over the Mets in the second game of Saturday's doubleheader.
ANALYSIS
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Back in action Thursday
SSWashington Nationals
September 24, 2020
Turner (undisclosed) is starting at shortstop and leading off Thursday against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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Scratched from starting nine
SSWashington Nationals
Undisclosed
September 23, 2020
Turner was scratched from the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies for an undisclosed reason.
ANALYSIS
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Up to 10 homers
SSWashington Nationals
September 20, 2020
Turner went 2-for-3 with a walk, a home run, two RBI and two runs scored in the second game of Sunday's doubleheader against the Marlins.
ANALYSIS
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