Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
Pittsburgh Pirates
10-Day IL
Injury Oblique
Est. Return 8/12/2020
2020 Fantasy Outlook
After his 11-start rookie campaign, FIP pegged his deserved ERA at a strong 3.19, a far cry from the actual 7.13 ERA he recorded. Keller's 28.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate were right in line with his numbers in 19 Triple-A starts, where he posted a 3.56 ERA. His 59.6% strand rate and .475 BABIP stand out as clear explanations for the large discrepancy between his ERA and FIP in the big leagues. Statcast doesn't suggest that Keller is at fault for those numbers, giving him an expected opposing batting average of .256, slightly below par but nowhere near the .343 opposing average he actually allowed. Scouts projected Keller as a mid-rotation starter, and the underlying numbers indicate that he still could be that guy going forward despite his awful rookie ERA. Armed with a plus fastball, plus slider and above-average curveball, he is a lock for the Pirates rotation and could have a breakout year. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#234
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$Signed a $1 million contract with the Pirates in June of 2014.
Injury severity not yet known
PPittsburgh Pirates
Side
August 2, 2020
The Pirates are unlikely to have a timetable regarding the injury to Keller (oblique) for several days, general manager Ben Cherington told 93.7 The Fan in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
Cherington said the team will need more time to determine the severity of Keller's injury. "It takes a couple days to get a handle on it," the general manager noted. He applauded Keller for not trying to push through the oblique injury, something that may help the righty return to action sooner than if he had continued to pitch through the pain.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
69
Last 10 Games
69
Last 5 Games
69
How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-19%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-57%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
2018
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .377 119 27 10 40 8 0 4
Since 2018vs Right .305 139 41 10 39 11 3 4
2020vs Left .357 16 0 2 5 1 0 1
2020vs Right .154 15 3 2 2 1 0 1
2019vs Left .380 103 27 8 35 7 0 3
2019vs Right .322 124 38 8 37 10 3 3
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-56%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-64%
ERA at Home
2018
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 4.00 1.44 27.0 0 2 0 12.3 3.0 1.0
Since 2018Away 9.10 2.09 28.2 2 4 0 9.7 3.5 1.6
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 3.52 1.43 7.2 1 1 0 3.5 4.7 2.3
2019Home 4.00 1.44 27.0 0 2 0 12.3 3.0 1.0
2019Away 11.14 2.33 21.0 1 3 0 12.0 3.0 1.3
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
0.75
 
K/9
3.5
 
BB/9
4.7
 
HR/9
2.3
 
Fastball
92.6 mph
 
ERA
3.52
 
WHIP
1.43
 
BABIP
.212
 
GB/FB
0.92
 
Left On Base
97.6%
 
Exit Velocity
85.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
9.5%
 
Spin Rate
2308 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
28.6%
 
Swinging Strike
5.1%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Mitch Keller
Dream11 Fantasy Baseball: Twins at Pirates
2 days ago
Juan Pablo Aravena breaks down Thursday's Twins at Pirates game for Dream11 contests.
Dream11 Fantasy Baseball: Pirates at Twins
3 days ago
Juan Pablo Aravena breaks down Tuesday's Pirates at Twins game for Dream11 contests.
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4 days ago
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6 days ago
If you’re hoping to punt/pay down for pitching, Chris Bennett says targeting Mike Fiers could work, as he faces a weak, though surging, offense in a pitcher's park in Seattle.
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Breakdown
12 days ago
Erik Halterman beaks down the DraftKings' Sunday baseball slate as Trevor Bauer offers good value against the Tigers.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
The Pirates continued their slow, methodical approach to Keller's development in 2018. Keller encountered little resistance at any point during his time with Double-A Altoona -- he allowed more than three runs just twice in 14 starts -- but nonetheless the team waited until the final day of June to bump him up to the next level. While the results took a turn for the worse after the leap to Triple-A, the peripherals were fine (24.2 K%, 0.52 HR/9). Keller's walk rates haven't been especially good at the higher levels, but he commands the fastball well. Fastball command is something a lot of young arms struggle with upon arrival to the big leagues, but that shouldn't be too much of a concern with Keller. He can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeout totals should be useful, if unexciting. Considering his path to this point, it seems likely that Keller will spend much of the first half back at Triple-A before finally cracking the big-league rotation.
Keller commands one of the best fastballs in the minors -- a mid-90s weapon with late life that can miss bats in and out of the zone. The pitch is so good that it’s all he needs to get through a minor-league lineup once and sometimes even twice. He also features a potentially plus curveball that works as an out pitch, but his changeup lags well behind as a fringe offering. His top two pitches and excellent command will carry him to the majors, but he needs to improve his changeup to reach his ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation horse. A back strain caused him to throw fewer innings in 2017 than in 2016, but he went to the Arizona Fall League to build up his innings in advance of what is likely to be his final season in the minors. He had a chance to generate a lot of hype in the AFL, a la Brent Honeywell last season, but evaluators weren’t particularly impressed by his showing, even though the stats were impressive.
The Pirates 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Keller compiled a 9-5 mark with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 130.1 innings split between Low-A and High-A. Perhaps even more impressively, he posted a 138:19 K:BB. The 20-year-old didn't allow a single run in six of his last seven starts, including two postseason outings. He offers a mid-90s fastball, above-average curveball and a solid changeup that serves as his third-best pitch. He struggled with his control as a rookie in 2015 (16 walks in 19.2 innings) but control wasn't an issue last year. Additionally, he managed to stay healthy in 2016 after forearm issues sidelined him for most of his second professional season. Keller will likely start 2017 at High-A Bradenton with a potential midseason move to Double-A. The 2014 second-round pick is as exciting as organization mate Tyler Glasnow, but for different reasons. Glasnow's top selling point is his ceiling while Keller's is his mid-rotation floor.
A second-round pick in 2014, Keller appeared in only 19.2 innings for Bristol last year because of forearm tightness. The results weren’t promising (5.49 ERA, 16 walks) but it’s possible the 20-year-old righty might be suffering from a more severe injury. He showed promise in 2014, registering a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings, but the fact that he saw so little action last summer gives cause for concern. Keller offers swing-and-miss stuff, but he needs to stay on the diamond throughout 2016 to maintain his prospect status.
A second-round pick in the 2014 draft, Keller got his first taste of professional action in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old right-hander registered a 1.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 27.1 innings with a 29:13 K:BB ratio. He reaches the mid-90s with his fastball, but struggles with control issues. Keller, who received a $1 million signing bonus, is expected to pitch in rookie ball for Morgantown in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Moves to injured list
PPittsburgh Pirates
Side
August 2, 2020
Keller (side) was placed on the 10-day injured list Sunday, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Tagged with loss Saturday
PPittsburgh Pirates
Side
August 1, 2020
Keller (1-1), who left with an injury, was tagged with the loss after allowing two runs on five hits with one strikeout and one walk over 2.2 innings Saturday against the Cubs.
ANALYSIS
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Dealing with side discomfort
PPittsburgh Pirates
Side
August 1, 2020
Keller exited Saturday's start against the Cubs with left side discomfort.
ANALYSIS
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Exits with apparent injury
PPittsburgh Pirates
Undisclosed
August 1, 2020
Keller was removed from Saturday's start against the Cubs with an apparent injury, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.
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Tosses five innings in win
PPittsburgh Pirates
July 26, 2020
Keler (1-0) threw five innings Sunday, allowing one run and earning a win over the Cardinals. He walked three batters and struck out two.
ANALYSIS
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