Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
23-Year-Old PitcherSP
Pittsburgh Pirates
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The Pirates continued their slow, methodical approach to Keller's development in 2018. Keller encountered little resistance at any point during his time with Double-A Altoona -- he allowed more than three runs just twice in 14 starts -- but nonetheless the team waited until the final day of June to bump him up to the next level. While the results took a turn for the worse after the leap to Triple-A, the peripherals were fine (24.2 K%, 0.52 HR/9). Keller's walk rates haven't been especially good at the higher levels, but he commands the fastball well. Fastball command is something a lot of young arms struggle with upon arrival to the big leagues, but that shouldn't be too much of a concern with Keller. He can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeout totals should be useful, if unexciting. Considering his path to this point, it seems likely that Keller will spend much of the first half back at Triple-A before finally cracking the big-league rotation. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a contract with the Pirates in June of 2014 that includes a $1 million signing bonus.
Pitches well in no-decision
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 24, 2019
Keller allowed one run on seven hits with two walks and seven strikeouts across five innings during a no-decision against the Cubs on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
The Pirates' offense didn't get on the board until the seventh, so Keller had to settle for a no-decision, but he's yielded two runs or fewer with seven strikeouts in his last two outings. Keller has shown signs of stardom, but he's been best in the strikeout department, raking up 41 punchouts in his last 26.2 innings this season. He is 1-5 with a 7.13 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and 65 strikeouts in 48 innings this season. The Pirates are going with a six-man rotation this week, so unless he pitches in relief, this will likely be the last we see of Keller in 2019.
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Pitching Stats
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
85
Last 10 Games
85
Last 5 Games
81
How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .380 103 27 8 35 7 0 3
Since 2017vs Right .322 124 38 8 37 10 3 3
2019vs Left .380 103 27 8 35 7 0 3
2019vs Right .322 124 38 8 37 10 3 3
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-64%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-64%
ERA at Home
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 4.00 1.44 27.0 0 2 0 12.3 3.0 1.0
Since 2017Away 11.14 2.33 21.0 1 3 0 12.0 3.0 1.3
2019Home 4.00 1.44 27.0 0 2 0 12.3 3.0 1.0
2019Away 11.14 2.33 21.0 1 3 0 12.0 3.0 1.3
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
4.06
 
K/9
12.2
 
BB/9
3.0
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
95.4 mph
 
ERA
7.13
 
WHIP
1.83
 
BABIP
.484
 
GB/FB
1.64
 
Left On Base
59.0%
 
Exit Velocity
87.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.5%
 
Spin Rate
2513 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
36.4%
 
Swinging Strike
12.2%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Mitch Keller
DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Picks
25 days ago
Adam Zdroik previews Tuesday’s DraftKings slate, recommending a Cubs stack against the Pirates.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Tuesday Picks
25 days ago
Mike Barner recommends an Indians stack Tuesday against the White Sox.
FanDuel MLB: Tuesday Breakdown
25 days ago
Chris Bennett looks over Tuesday's slate and thinks Max Scherzer could have some GPP appeal as he rounds back into form heading into the postseason.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Subject to Change
28 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the starting pitching for the final week of the season, which is always tricky. Gerrit Cole is scheduled for two starts, but will he make both?
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Tuesday Picks
32 days ago
Mike Barner previews Tuesday’s slate, making his best recommendations for a winning lineup.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
Keller commands one of the best fastballs in the minors -- a mid-90s weapon with late life that can miss bats in and out of the zone. The pitch is so good that it’s all he needs to get through a minor-league lineup once and sometimes even twice. He also features a potentially plus curveball that works as an out pitch, but his changeup lags well behind as a fringe offering. His top two pitches and excellent command will carry him to the majors, but he needs to improve his changeup to reach his ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation horse. A back strain caused him to throw fewer innings in 2017 than in 2016, but he went to the Arizona Fall League to build up his innings in advance of what is likely to be his final season in the minors. He had a chance to generate a lot of hype in the AFL, a la Brent Honeywell last season, but evaluators weren’t particularly impressed by his showing, even though the stats were impressive.
The Pirates 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Keller compiled a 9-5 mark with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 130.1 innings split between Low-A and High-A. Perhaps even more impressively, he posted a 138:19 K:BB. The 20-year-old didn't allow a single run in six of his last seven starts, including two postseason outings. He offers a mid-90s fastball, above-average curveball and a solid changeup that serves as his third-best pitch. He struggled with his control as a rookie in 2015 (16 walks in 19.2 innings) but control wasn't an issue last year. Additionally, he managed to stay healthy in 2016 after forearm issues sidelined him for most of his second professional season. Keller will likely start 2017 at High-A Bradenton with a potential midseason move to Double-A. The 2014 second-round pick is as exciting as organization mate Tyler Glasnow, but for different reasons. Glasnow's top selling point is his ceiling while Keller's is his mid-rotation floor.
A second-round pick in 2014, Keller appeared in only 19.2 innings for Bristol last year because of forearm tightness. The results weren’t promising (5.49 ERA, 16 walks) but it’s possible the 20-year-old righty might be suffering from a more severe injury. He showed promise in 2014, registering a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings, but the fact that he saw so little action last summer gives cause for concern. Keller offers swing-and-miss stuff, but he needs to stay on the diamond throughout 2016 to maintain his prospect status.
A second-round pick in the 2014 draft, Keller got his first taste of professional action in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old right-hander registered a 1.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 27.1 innings with a 29:13 K:BB ratio. He reaches the mid-90s with his fastball, but struggles with control issues. Keller, who received a $1 million signing bonus, is expected to pitch in rookie ball for Morgantown in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Pitches well in loss
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 17, 2019
Keller (1-5) allowed two runs on six hits with two walks and seven strikeouts across five innings while taking a loss against the Mariners on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard by Giants
PPittsburgh Pirates
September 10, 2019
Keller (1-4) took the loss against the Giants on Tuesday, giving up five earned runs on nine hits over five innings, striking out seven and walking none as the Pirates fell 5-4.
ANALYSIS
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Pushed back to Tuesday
PPittsburgh Pirates
Wrist
September 7, 2019
Keller (wrist) will start Tuesday against the Giants, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
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To try throwing Thursday
PPittsburgh Pirates
Wrist
September 5, 2019
Keller (wrist) will try to throw a bullpen session Thursday, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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TBD for next start
PPittsburgh Pirates
Wrist
September 4, 2019
The swelling in Keller's wrist subsided Wednesday, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic reports, but the Pirates are still uncertain if he will make his next scheduled start.
ANALYSIS
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