Mitch Keller
Mitch Keller
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Keller's 2019 debut didn't go well, so he spent the offseason working on his spin efficiency, hoping to add movement to his 95-mph fastball. Unfortunately, the jury is still out as the righty missed six weeks with a sore oblique, limiting him to five starts. Keller's 2.91 ERA implies he pitched well when healthy, but 18 walks and 16 strikeouts in 21.2 innings beg to differ. The early results on Keller's fastball are tempered by sample-size caveats, but encouraging. He missed more bats with his four-seamer in 2019, but he gave up much softer contact in 2020, which is more important as his slider and curveball can be the strikeout offerings. Keller's velocity and spin dropped last season, but the key is he was getting useful spin. Keller enters his age-25 season the same as last year. He's still a potential mid-rotation starter with spotty control. Keller profiles as a low-end streamer, with a great home park. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#374
ADP
$Signed a $1 million contract with the Pirates in June of 2014.
Set for Sunday start
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 13, 2021
Keller will start Sunday against the Giants, Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
Keller was originally slated to start Saturday's game but will still draw a matchup against the Giants after moving back one day. He'll look to bounce back from a poor outing his last time out, when he allowed seven earned runs across only 3.1 innings to the Reds.
Read More News
Pitching Stats
Loading Pitching Stats...
2021
2020
2019
2021 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2020 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
2019 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Pitching Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Pitching Game Log...
Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
79
Last 10 Games
79
Last 5 Games
79
How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-61%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-15%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .321 223 45 28 61 15 1 7
Since 2019vs Right .268 222 62 23 53 14 4 7
2021vs Left .322 69 12 9 19 7 1 1
2021vs Right .259 62 14 8 14 3 1 3
2020vs Left .179 51 6 11 7 1 0 3
2020vs Right .069 36 10 7 2 1 0 1
2019vs Left .380 103 27 8 35 7 0 3
2019vs Right .322 124 38 8 37 10 3 3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-73%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-64%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 5.94 1.62 47.0 1 5 0 10.5 4.2 1.0
Since 2019Away 6.79 1.77 50.1 3 5 0 9.3 5.2 1.6
2021Home 12.21 2.50 14.0 1 3 0 7.7 7.1 1.3
2021Away 3.29 1.10 13.2 1 1 0 9.2 4.0 1.3
2020Home 0.00 0.33 6.0 0 0 0 9.0 3.0 0.0
2020Away 4.02 1.60 15.2 1 1 0 5.7 9.2 2.3
2019Home 4.00 1.44 27.0 0 2 0 12.3 3.0 1.0
2019Away 11.14 2.33 21.0 1 3 0 12.0 3.0 1.3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.53
 
K/9
8.5
 
BB/9
5.5
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
94.5 mph
 
ERA
7.81
 
WHIP
1.81
 
BABIP
.358
 
GB/FB
1.00
 
Left On Base
58.6%
 
Exit Velocity
83.8 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.8%
 
Spin Rate
2401 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
26.8%
 
Swinging Strike
8.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
Loading Advanced Pitching Stats...
Defensive Stats
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Stats Vs Today's Lineup
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Mitch Keller
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Wheeling and Dealing
Yesterday
Todd Zola's weekly pitcher rankings has a prime spot for Zack Wheeler, who is maintaining a high ground-ball rate while ramping up his strikeout rate.
MLB Betting: Monday's Best Bets
6 days ago
Michael Rathburn checks in on Monday's mini-slate and offers his best wagers for the night as he zeroes in on targeting a weak Pirates lineup that could continue to struggle against the Reds' Tyler Mahle.
DraftKings MLB: Monday Breakdown
6 days ago
Mike Barner takes stock of Monday's six-game slate, providing his best DraftKings player recommendations.
FanDuel MLB: Monday Targets
6 days ago
Chris Morgan anticipates Jose Altuve could have a nice night against the Angels if pitcher Jose Suarez gets the spot start for injured Alex Cobb.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Aces Not High
8 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching, as Shane Bieber is one of the few aces with two starts.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
After his 11-start rookie campaign, FIP pegged his deserved ERA at a strong 3.19, a far cry from the actual 7.13 ERA he recorded. Keller's 28.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate were right in line with his numbers in 19 Triple-A starts, where he posted a 3.56 ERA. His 59.6% strand rate and .475 BABIP stand out as clear explanations for the large discrepancy between his ERA and FIP in the big leagues. Statcast doesn't suggest that Keller is at fault for those numbers, giving him an expected opposing batting average of .256, slightly below par but nowhere near the .343 opposing average he actually allowed. Scouts projected Keller as a mid-rotation starter, and the underlying numbers indicate that he still could be that guy going forward despite his awful rookie ERA. Armed with a plus fastball, plus slider and above-average curveball, he is a lock for the Pirates rotation and could have a breakout year.
The Pirates continued their slow, methodical approach to Keller's development in 2018. Keller encountered little resistance at any point during his time with Double-A Altoona -- he allowed more than three runs just twice in 14 starts -- but nonetheless the team waited until the final day of June to bump him up to the next level. While the results took a turn for the worse after the leap to Triple-A, the peripherals were fine (24.2 K%, 0.52 HR/9). Keller's walk rates haven't been especially good at the higher levels, but he commands the fastball well. Fastball command is something a lot of young arms struggle with upon arrival to the big leagues, but that shouldn't be too much of a concern with Keller. He can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeout totals should be useful, if unexciting. Considering his path to this point, it seems likely that Keller will spend much of the first half back at Triple-A before finally cracking the big-league rotation.
Keller commands one of the best fastballs in the minors -- a mid-90s weapon with late life that can miss bats in and out of the zone. The pitch is so good that it’s all he needs to get through a minor-league lineup once and sometimes even twice. He also features a potentially plus curveball that works as an out pitch, but his changeup lags well behind as a fringe offering. His top two pitches and excellent command will carry him to the majors, but he needs to improve his changeup to reach his ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation horse. A back strain caused him to throw fewer innings in 2017 than in 2016, but he went to the Arizona Fall League to build up his innings in advance of what is likely to be his final season in the minors. He had a chance to generate a lot of hype in the AFL, a la Brent Honeywell last season, but evaluators weren’t particularly impressed by his showing, even though the stats were impressive.
The Pirates 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Keller compiled a 9-5 mark with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 130.1 innings split between Low-A and High-A. Perhaps even more impressively, he posted a 138:19 K:BB. The 20-year-old didn't allow a single run in six of his last seven starts, including two postseason outings. He offers a mid-90s fastball, above-average curveball and a solid changeup that serves as his third-best pitch. He struggled with his control as a rookie in 2015 (16 walks in 19.2 innings) but control wasn't an issue last year. Additionally, he managed to stay healthy in 2016 after forearm issues sidelined him for most of his second professional season. Keller will likely start 2017 at High-A Bradenton with a potential midseason move to Double-A. The 2014 second-round pick is as exciting as organization mate Tyler Glasnow, but for different reasons. Glasnow's top selling point is his ceiling while Keller's is his mid-rotation floor.
A second-round pick in 2014, Keller appeared in only 19.2 innings for Bristol last year because of forearm tightness. The results weren’t promising (5.49 ERA, 16 walks) but it’s possible the 20-year-old righty might be suffering from a more severe injury. He showed promise in 2014, registering a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings, but the fact that he saw so little action last summer gives cause for concern. Keller offers swing-and-miss stuff, but he needs to stay on the diamond throughout 2016 to maintain his prospect status.
A second-round pick in the 2014 draft, Keller got his first taste of professional action in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old right-hander registered a 1.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 27.1 innings with a 29:13 K:BB ratio. He reaches the mid-90s with his fastball, but struggles with control issues. Keller, who received a $1 million signing bonus, is expected to pitch in rookie ball for Morgantown in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Struggles early in blowout
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 10, 2021
Keller (2-4) took the loss after giving up seven runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out two over 3.1 innings Monday against the Reds.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Blanks San Diego
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 4, 2021
Keller (2-3) tossed 5.2 shutout innings against San Diego on Tuesday to earn the win, allowing two hits and two walks with five strikeouts.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Lasts 2.1 innings
PPittsburgh Pirates
April 28, 2021
Keller (1-3) was tagged with the loss Wednesday against the Royals after allowing four runs on three hits and five walks while fanning two across 2.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Turns in solid start
PPittsburgh Pirates
April 22, 2021
Keller allowed two earned runs on five hits and no walks while striking out five across five innings Thursday against the Tigers. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Flips with Brubaker in schedule
PPittsburgh Pirates
April 22, 2021
Keller is slated to start Thursday's series finale in Detroit, Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.