Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller

26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Pittsburgh Pirates
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Keller's fastball velocity was up this spring and with it, his ADP. Typically a righty with a fairly straight mid-90s fastball, Keller was touching 99 mph this spring. He will need to command the pitch and his quality secondaries, as big-league hitters have no trouble catching up to that velocity when it lacks movement and isn't located properly. However, there is clear post-hype breakout potential here, especially since Keller is a lock to make the rotation. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#467
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Pirates in March of 2022.
Logs first win
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 18, 2022
Keller (1-5) earned the win during Wednesday's 3-2 victory over the Cubs, allowing one run on three hits and two walks with three strikeouts in 2.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
Keller lost his spot in the rotation but was used as the piggyback to opener Wil Crowe and was able to find success in the form of a win. The 26-year-old pitched well during the third and fifth innings, but struggled in the fourth and was lucky to surrender just one run despite putting four runners on. Manager Derek Shelton is yet to tab a starter for Tuesday's game against Colorado and Keller should be considered a candidate to toe the rubber.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
76
Last 10 Games
76
Last 5 Games
76
How many pitches does Mitch Keller generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Mitch Keller generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-11%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-13%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-61%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .309 358 50 42 95 22 1 7
Since 2020vs Right .275 347 84 37 83 17 1 12
2022vs Left .282 77 11 4 20 3 0 2
2022vs Right .286 71 15 8 18 5 0 3
2021vs Left .345 230 33 27 68 18 1 2
2021vs Right .300 240 59 22 63 11 1 8
2020vs Left .179 51 6 11 7 1 0 3
2020vs Right .069 36 10 7 2 1 0 1
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-40%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-1%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-55%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 7.07 1.78 85.1 2 11 0 7.4 4.4 0.7
Since 2020Away 4.26 1.51 69.2 4 6 0 8.3 4.8 1.6
2022Home 6.63 1.53 19.0 0 3 0 5.7 3.3 0.9
2022Away 6.59 1.54 13.2 0 2 0 9.2 3.3 2.0
2021Home 7.91 2.01 60.1 2 8 0 7.8 4.9 0.7
2021Away 3.57 1.46 40.1 3 3 0 8.9 3.6 1.1
2020Home 0.00 0.33 6.0 0 0 0 9.0 3.0 0.0
2020Away 4.02 1.60 15.2 1 1 0 5.7 9.2 2.3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Mitch Keller compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.17
 
K/9
7.2
 
BB/9
3.3
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
96.2 mph
 
ERA
6.61
 
WHIP
1.53
 
BABIP
.333
 
GB/FB
1.89
 
Left On Base
60.5%
 
Exit Velocity
82.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.6%
 
Spin Rate
2360 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.0%
 
Swinging Strike
8.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Mitch Keller
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
2 days ago
Bryce Harper tops Erik Halterman's list of risers and fallers, as he's slashing .305/.361/.634 even with an injured elbow.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Mercury Rising
4 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as warming weather is contributing to more scoring. Sugar Shane McClanahan only has one start, but still tops the AL rankings.
Collette Calls: Still Chasing Wins
5 days ago
Wins have been hard to come by this season. Jason Collette examines early run-support numbers and notes pitchers that have enjoyed good fortune in that regard, and those that have not, like Corbin Burnes.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Knock on Woodruff
11 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as two-start Brandon Woodruff is looking good after a rough opener.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Sunday Picks
17 days ago
Chris Morgan is willing to pay up for Mike Trout on Sunday in what should be a good matchup for the Angels.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Keller's 2019 debut didn't go well, so he spent the offseason working on his spin efficiency, hoping to add movement to his 95-mph fastball. Unfortunately, the jury is still out as the righty missed six weeks with a sore oblique, limiting him to five starts. Keller's 2.91 ERA implies he pitched well when healthy, but 18 walks and 16 strikeouts in 21.2 innings beg to differ. The early results on Keller's fastball are tempered by sample-size caveats, but encouraging. He missed more bats with his four-seamer in 2019, but he gave up much softer contact in 2020, which is more important as his slider and curveball can be the strikeout offerings. Keller's velocity and spin dropped last season, but the key is he was getting useful spin. Keller enters his age-25 season the same as last year. He's still a potential mid-rotation starter with spotty control. Keller profiles as a low-end streamer, with a great home park.
After his 11-start rookie campaign, FIP pegged his deserved ERA at a strong 3.19, a far cry from the actual 7.13 ERA he recorded. Keller's 28.6% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate were right in line with his numbers in 19 Triple-A starts, where he posted a 3.56 ERA. His 59.6% strand rate and .475 BABIP stand out as clear explanations for the large discrepancy between his ERA and FIP in the big leagues. Statcast doesn't suggest that Keller is at fault for those numbers, giving him an expected opposing batting average of .256, slightly below par but nowhere near the .343 opposing average he actually allowed. Scouts projected Keller as a mid-rotation starter, and the underlying numbers indicate that he still could be that guy going forward despite his awful rookie ERA. Armed with a plus fastball, plus slider and above-average curveball, he is a lock for the Pirates rotation and could have a breakout year.
The Pirates continued their slow, methodical approach to Keller's development in 2018. Keller encountered little resistance at any point during his time with Double-A Altoona -- he allowed more than three runs just twice in 14 starts -- but nonetheless the team waited until the final day of June to bump him up to the next level. While the results took a turn for the worse after the leap to Triple-A, the peripherals were fine (24.2 K%, 0.52 HR/9). Keller's walk rates haven't been especially good at the higher levels, but he commands the fastball well. Fastball command is something a lot of young arms struggle with upon arrival to the big leagues, but that shouldn't be too much of a concern with Keller. He can keep the ball on the ground and the strikeout totals should be useful, if unexciting. Considering his path to this point, it seems likely that Keller will spend much of the first half back at Triple-A before finally cracking the big-league rotation.
Keller commands one of the best fastballs in the minors -- a mid-90s weapon with late life that can miss bats in and out of the zone. The pitch is so good that it’s all he needs to get through a minor-league lineup once and sometimes even twice. He also features a potentially plus curveball that works as an out pitch, but his changeup lags well behind as a fringe offering. His top two pitches and excellent command will carry him to the majors, but he needs to improve his changeup to reach his ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation horse. A back strain caused him to throw fewer innings in 2017 than in 2016, but he went to the Arizona Fall League to build up his innings in advance of what is likely to be his final season in the minors. He had a chance to generate a lot of hype in the AFL, a la Brent Honeywell last season, but evaluators weren’t particularly impressed by his showing, even though the stats were impressive.
The Pirates 2016 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Keller compiled a 9-5 mark with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 130.1 innings split between Low-A and High-A. Perhaps even more impressively, he posted a 138:19 K:BB. The 20-year-old didn't allow a single run in six of his last seven starts, including two postseason outings. He offers a mid-90s fastball, above-average curveball and a solid changeup that serves as his third-best pitch. He struggled with his control as a rookie in 2015 (16 walks in 19.2 innings) but control wasn't an issue last year. Additionally, he managed to stay healthy in 2016 after forearm issues sidelined him for most of his second professional season. Keller will likely start 2017 at High-A Bradenton with a potential midseason move to Double-A. The 2014 second-round pick is as exciting as organization mate Tyler Glasnow, but for different reasons. Glasnow's top selling point is his ceiling while Keller's is his mid-rotation floor.
A second-round pick in 2014, Keller appeared in only 19.2 innings for Bristol last year because of forearm tightness. The results weren’t promising (5.49 ERA, 16 walks) but it’s possible the 20-year-old righty might be suffering from a more severe injury. He showed promise in 2014, registering a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings, but the fact that he saw so little action last summer gives cause for concern. Keller offers swing-and-miss stuff, but he needs to stay on the diamond throughout 2016 to maintain his prospect status.
A second-round pick in the 2014 draft, Keller got his first taste of professional action in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old right-hander registered a 1.98 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 27.1 innings with a 29:13 K:BB ratio. He reaches the mid-90s with his fastball, but struggles with control issues. Keller, who received a $1 million signing bonus, is expected to pitch in rookie ball for Morgantown in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Loses rotation spot
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 17, 2022
Keller is considered an option out of the bullpen for Wednesday's game against the Cubs, the game which would have been his next turn in the rotation, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles yet again
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 13, 2022
Keller (0-5) took the loss Friday after allowing five runs in 4.2 innings against the Reds. He struck out just two batters while walking two and allowing five hits.
ANALYSIS
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Can't last five innings
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 8, 2022
Keller allowed five earned runs on six hits and three walks while striking out three across 4.1 innings in the second game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Reds. He did not factor into the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Charged with fourth loss
PPittsburgh Pirates
May 1, 2022
Keller (0-4) allowed a run on five hits and no walks while striking out five in six innings to take the loss against the Padres on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Struggles against Brewers
PPittsburgh Pirates
April 26, 2022
Keller did not factor into the decision Tuesday against the Brewers, allowing four runs on five hits and two walks while striking out one batter in 4.2 innings.
ANALYSIS
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